Football-betting thread

[Flushdraw]

Utd is hardly a dream job these days though.

What? 99% of managers would give their right bollock to manage Utd.

[RichieM]

What? 99% of managers would give their right bollock to manage Utd.

Aye but they only want to hire out of the other 1 percent....

[eamonhonda]

What? 99% of managers would give their right bollock to manage Utd.

Yeah obviously not dream job for existing managers of big clubs after a successful season but for the rest its of course still a dream job

[NewApproach]

Are you trolling or being serious

Absolutely serious.

[NewApproach]

Aye but they only want to hire out of the other 1 percent....

This.

[Wesley Harms]

Absolutely serious.

I'm not even going to bother arguing

[NewApproach]

Yeah obviously not dream job for existing managers of big clubs after a successful season but for the rest its of course still a dream job

They don't want 'the rest'. They want the number one manager going, and that person is going to have higher aspirations than Man Utd at this point in time.

[Dice75]

Lampard might get the odd break forward tonight in that line-up.

14's for FGS for me with the Boyles double odds offer in first 20 mins for a bit of interest.

[Wesley Harms]

Lampard might get the odd break forward tonight in that line-up.

14's for FGS for me with the Boyles double odds offer in first 20 mins for a bit of interest.

Chelsea couldn't have picked a more static midfield, they could get hammered tonight

[Jibzzzz]

Koke @12s for me.
2-1 Madrid @8s

[Dice75]

Chelsea couldn't have picked a more static midfield, they could get hammered tonight

I'm sure Mikel & Luiz will park but there might be room for counter attacks. Haven't seen much of Atletico so looking forward to it regardless.

[KevIRL]

Cashley Cole first player to get a card 20/1.

[Loopz]

Cahill fgs

[Micknail]

Cahill fgs

This.

It's gonna be set piece football.
Atletico are a counter attacking team so stifling the midfield is a no brainer.

[eamonhonda]

Torres fgs

[Jam-Fly]

I think Klopp is the stand out candidate for the United job.

If you look at the other 'world class' managers out there that Untied might want, Mourinho, Ancelotti, Pep etc, I agree that none of these are going to want to move to United. Dortmund are just about the level where United could be considered a step up (United will offer greater resources, EPL>Bundesliga etc.)


I think Gus Hiddink would be a great appointment. During a time of uncertainty, you could do a lot worse than bringing in someone with massive experience and a big reputation. He also took like a duck to water during his brief spell at Chelsea. He's available at 40/1, it probably won't happen but I think it'd make a lot of sense.

[accomputers.ie]

Can't see many goals to be honest. Best defence in Spain against best in England, two tactically astute managers that will focus more on not losing the tie tonight rather than winning it. Think 0-0 a distinct possibility. I'm playing under 1.5 goals.

spot on lad, fair play - what u backing tonight? tv3 lads were saying the same before kick off. Crazy the way they defended so poorly vs PSG but looked water tight last night. Anyway the chess match is over, enjoy the footie tonight. What price Benzima fgs?

[eamonhonda]

spot on lad, fair play - what u backing tonight? tv3 lads were saying the same before kick off. Crazy the way they defended so poorly vs PSG but looked water tight last night. Anyway the chess match is over, enjoy the footie tonight. What price Benzima fgs?

11/2 double odds if he scores in first 20 mins with boyles, that's what I'm on anyway

[Dice75]

11/2 double odds if he scores in first 20 mins with boyles, that's what I'm on anyway

Which is better?

Boyles double odds in first 20mins or PP's money back as free bet if its a draw?

[The Situation]

spot on lad, fair play - what u backing tonight? tv3 lads were saying the same before kick off. Crazy the way they defended so poorly vs PSG but looked water tight last night. Anyway the chess match is over, enjoy the footie tonight. What price Benzima fgs?

With Bayern at 3.1, Ronaldo can't be fully match fit even if he starts and Bale is carrying a knock too. Wouldn't really rate Madrid's full backs defensively against the wide threat that Bayern will pose on the counter tonight. Should be a tie to savour though, complete opposite to last nights.

[eamonhonda]

Which is better?

Boyles double odds in first 20mins or PP's money back as free bet if its a draw?

I'm a greedy cunt so had to go boyles

[mugsy]

Real Madrid have won their last four matches against Bayern Munich at the Bernabeu

Paddy Power is giving money back if draw as a free bet though on them donk markets.

So going to sprinkle on :

2-1 , 3-1, 3-2 Madrid

In F/G going with robben and bale.

[mugsy]

Which is better?

Boyles double odds in first 20mins or PP's money back as free bet if its a draw?

i would say free bet if its a draw. odds 12/5 on draw. the odds of a goal being scored in the first 20 alone would be around this mark and you have to name the player.

Draw as out can keep the sweat going for a whole match too. But big rewards if going for a double figure fgs so depends what u putting on id say but im sure stats are pretty low for a goal in first 20 mins over a sample of champions league knock out games.

I once had barcelona to score in first 20 minutes in nou camp up pops messi in 20.30 approx wasnt sure if counts my thinking was its still down as 20 minute goal so should be
paid but no was told there is no zero minute so anything after 20 minutes is the 21st minute. Just in case anyone notches on the 20 minute mark for the above double odds and your not sure.

[poprock]

Which is better?

Boyles double odds in first 20mins or PP's money back as free bet if its a draw?

€10 bet used as example

Benzema scores within 20 mins of game approx 28 times of 423* is 7% of €55 €3.85 ev

Odds for a draw is 13/5 and you get stake back so ev is €3.85

EDIT: Amended after mugsy post



* This is based that no else scores before Benzema in first 20 mins

[White Knight]

Bale on bench - flu
Ronaldo starts.

[Hatedajacks]

Alaba 6/1 to be booked. Obviously not a dirty player but big price considering wingers he is up against.

[mugsy]

€10 bet used as example

Benzema scores within 20 mins of game approx 28 times of 423* is 15% of €55 €8.25 ev

Odds for a draw is 13/5 and you get stake back so ev is €3.85


* This is based that no else scores before Benzema in first 20 mins

is this a stat or did u make it up. seem too high

[poprock]

is this a stat or did u make it up. seem too high

You are correct, it only 7% of time forgot to change to a %
Amended post now

its from transfer market

http://www.transfermarkt.com/en/karim-benzema/leistungsdaten/spieler_18922_gesamt.html

[The Situation]

is this a stat or did u make it up. seem too high

Even if it is accurate they don't play Bayern (the best team in the world) every game, applying goal ratios from other games as a projection for this one is madness.

[poprock]

Even if it is accurate they don't play Bayern (the best team in the world) every game, applying goal ratios from other games as a projection for this one is madness.

you got to apply something, He has similar ratios in the champions league

By all means chip in and work the % difference in scoring against bayern as opposed to any other champions league team
There are actually numerous differentials one can apply to this bet but just threw an an estimate up after few mins.

[eamonhonda]

What does it mean On boyles when it says. Bookings under 26 : 13/2, 26-46: 9/4 and over 46 : 4/9 ??

[Dice75]

What does it mean On boyles when it says. Bookings under 26 : 13/2, 26-46: 9/4 and over 46 : 4/9 ??

Yellow = 10pts
Red = 25pts

I think...

[eamonhonda]

Yellow = 10pts
Red = 25pts

I think...

I see, it's a point system anyway. What sites offer odds On particular players to be booked/sent off

[The Situation]

you got to apply something, He has similar ratios in the champions league

By all means chip in and work the % difference in scoring against bayern as opposed to any other champions league team
There are actually numerous differentials one can apply to this bet but just threw an an estimate up after few mins.

As variables go it's quite a big one though. Hatricks against the likes of Murcia or Elche are going to scew things a lot like. His goal record against Barca is 6 in 21 games which is a good bit lower than his overall ratio. Although not a great sample size I'd say that's more statistically viable for comparison to Bayern tonight than comparing to a sample were the vast majority of teams are much inferior.

[Dice75]

I see, it's a point system anyway. What sites offer odds On particular players to be booked/sent off

Dont know - Saw Kev posting on last nights match so he would know

[poprock]

As variables go it's quite a big one though. Hatricks against the likes of Murcia or Elche are going to scew things a lot like. His goal record against Barca is 6 in 21 games which is a good bit lower than his overall ratio. Although not a great sample size I'd say that's more statistically viable for comparison to Bayern tonight than comparing to a sample were the vast majority of teams are much inferior.

I aint doubting it is a valid variable, just I aint going through benzema record against teams who are around 2/1 as it aint my bet for hours of research. as I mentioned already his champions league record is similar, even better 61 games with 35 goals so that doesnt have relevance to elche etc
Picking one team is madness although that word should be reserved for people who bet on soccer without the foggiest clue of anything

[eamonhonda]

Ship. Feck ye're money back shite and ye're fancy maths!

[The Situation]

Haha that was inevitable

[accomputers.ie]

Fair play Honda . Curse my long journey home from work and the hoovering . Nice double the van dammage

[Dice75]

What does it mean On boyles when it says. Bookings under 26 : 13/2, 26-46: 9/4 and over 46 : 4/9 ??

13/2 would've been nice

[KevIRL]

Skyrtl 11/1 to score a header on Sunday, Cech and Terry out, mmmmmm

[Dice75]

Nice late scoop for anyone on the Boyles TBI Friday special @9/1.

Two last minute goals in the 3 matches to swing it

[Wesley Harms]

Word flying arounf that the Newell's Old Boys game is rigged to be a draw

[Micknail]

Word flying arounf that the Newell's Old Boys game is rigged to be a draw

Heinze, Banega and they just brought on David Trezeguet, I would have thought players of that calibre would be above rigging?

[accomputers.ie]

Fancy Fulham win and Swansea draw tomorrow . Nice double

[Wesley Harms]

Heinze, Banega and they just brought on David Trezeguet, I would have thought players of that calibre would be above rigging?

Obv was a load of bollocks

[Johnny Tightlips]

Massive word going around belfast all day yesterday that ards are going to beat ballymena United. Coming from good sources as well. Pp and all local bookmakers have speed taking bets. Price has come in from 4/1 early yesterday to as little as 27/20. Id say it will be cut alot shorter before kick off.

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[Johnny Tightlips]

Massive word going around belfast all day yesterday that ards are going to beat ballymena United. Coming from good sources as well. Pp and all local bookmakers have stopped taking bets. The Price has come in from 4/1 early yesterday to as little as 27/20. Id say it will be cut alot shorter before kick off.

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Sent from my GT-I9505 using Tapatalk

[Johnny Tightlips]

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Stupid predictive text

[The Situation]

You're definitely more Frankie the Squealer than Johnny Tightlips.

[Mickey Rosa]

Massive word going around belfast all day yesterday that ards are going to beat ballymena United. Coming from good sources as well. Pp and all local bookmakers have speed taking bets. Price has come in from 4/1 early yesterday to as little as 27/20. Id say it will be cut alot shorter before kick off.

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Misclicked and back Ballymena

[bohsman]

Misclicked and back Ballymena

Looks like value at this stage.

[eamonhonda]

Skrtel fgs, wickham fgs.

Liverpool, city -1 and athletico treble 6/1 boyles special

[accomputers.ie]

Ht ft Liverpool draw 19/1 betfair

[Mickey Rosa]

wickham fgs.

Oi Oi

[eamonhonda]

Was just going back in to go for borini next goal, too slow though

[FeetMagic]

Skrtel fgs, wickham fgs.

Liverpool, city -1 and athletico treble 6/1 boyles special

Can't imagine city beating the hcap if pool win tbh. I'll be backing palace should pool clinch this.

[eamonhonda]

Ribery fgs.

[Dice75]

Is Robben on peno's for Munich?

[eamonhonda]

Is Robben on peno's for Munich?

Mueller I think