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Fitz EOM - Flop Set, What now?

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    Fitz EOM - Flop Set, What now?

    Spot from the Fitz EOM which I'm still not sure of.....

    Level 3 - 100/200 (No history at the table)

    Villian 1 UTG (Downtown - 14k) opens to 500

    MP1 flats as do I with 44 (15K), as does Villain 2 directly to my left (20k - solid player), button & blinds complete so 7 to the flop.

    Flop is 643

    Downtown c-bets 1500, MP1 flats so I flat to see what happens behind and hopefully get it in HU or on a non turn if we get there.

    This is where it gets tricky. Villain 2 repops to 5300 (my read is he's not messing about & seems committed to the hand). Folded back to Downtown & he thinks for maybe 20 secs & shoves. MP1 folds and action back on me........

    #2
    Don't think I could fold here. A7 and A5 are getting it in, possibly AK. Set of threes, Aces and Kings are behind us and only set of sixes ahead. Can't be putting anyone on flopped nuts.

    Comment


      #3
      Ugh. Just... ugh. Blech.

      Stick something like this into Pokerstove?

      Downtown: [AA,KK,Ac5c,AcKc,66,33,57s]
      Villain 2: [66,33,57s,25s,AcXc,5c8c]

      Assuming Villian 2 is calling 100% of the time, you need 13.5/45 = 30%.
      Last edited by AndyFatBastard; 01-05-15, 10:03.
      "I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson

      Comment


        #4
        I might think about folding for half a second and then I would call.
        "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

        Comment


          #5
          Originally posted by NuckChorris View Post
          Don't think I could fold here. A7 and A5 are getting it in, possibly AK. Set of threes, Aces and Kings are behind us and only set of sixes ahead. Can't be putting anyone on flopped nuts.
          You are in the Fitz. OK it's 2015 and one of the villains is a known good player. But you're still in the Fitz and it's still a 7-way flop. Of course one of them can have a straight. Also A7 is only a gutshot or am I brainfarting real hard here?
          "I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by AndyFatBastard View Post
            Ugh. Just... ugh. Blech.

            Stick something like this into Pokerstove?

            Downtown: [AA,KK,Ac5c,AcKc,66,33,57s]
            Villain 2: [66,33,57s,25s,AcXc,5c8c]

            Assuming Villian 2 is calling 100% of the time, you need 13.5/45 = 30%.
            AA/KK would be suicide into seven players, and 57 utg is questionable too.

            Comment


              #7
              I think it's a fold.
              A set of 3's is a fold for sure.
              The only conceivable way u could call with 3's in this spot is if you're someone who just "cannot fold a flopped set".
              So given that I could definitely fold middle set there. Fwiw I'd think it's much more likely that Downtown has flopped straight than a big pair.

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post
                AA/KK would be suicide into seven players, and 57 utg is questionable too.
                Yeah I agree. I was trying to be as generous as possible with the ranges. I'd definitely include two combos of 57s - he isn't opening that hand 100%, but it's disinctly possible. Ditto for AA and KK - there's a small chance he's actually being suicidal (It's The Fitz™) so it should be included. It's an extremely narrow range without those hands.
                "I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson

                Comment


                  #9
                  Fold I must be well out of touch, I wouldn't have even considered it.

                  Opr

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by AndyFatBastard View Post
                    You are in the Fitz. OK it's 2015 and one of the villains is a known good player. But you're still in the Fitz and it's still a 7-way flop. Of course one of them can have a straight. Also A7 is only a gutshot or am I brainfarting real hard here?
                    A,7 was with clubs. Also would give the 5,7 to some players but not to Dowtown UTG and to a "solid player" although I suppose a solid player would flat with 5,7 suited multi-way. Other players in the pot would've been the more likely suspects for that hand though.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Stinks of flopped two pair to me vilkain would easily have this in his range for open raise and the jam to protect against fkushdraw . Food was good eh? Game is like bingo after 2 am .

                      cuse typing . Fingers big . Keypad small .

                      Comment


                        #12
                        EOM is a fast enough structure and you don't get too many spots like this to accumulate the chips you need to go deep. As played I'm getting all my chips in there on such a draw heavy board.
                        Prefer to raise the turn to chase out some draws but never folding.
                        Only behind to higher set, 75 unlikely in a raised pot. Also approx 1 in 3 chance to make a house/quads.
                        If this doesn't work out my next decision is which bar to head to.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Nasty spot.

                          I'd always go broke if Rory turns up with 66 or hits his outs. The guy beside you is as likely to have 25o as 2 pair but you can be fairly sure his chips are going in as well.

                          If Downtown is opening for 2.5 bb from utg with anything that flops a straight here then I need to make the effort get out and play this game more often.
                          Turning millions into thousands

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Downtown has nut flush draw a lot here, sets and 57s sometimes. not AA/KK if hes playing remotely well. Guy behind can easily call pre with 57, but also 66, 33, 46s, FD, Overpair find out where I am/ protect raise. I'd go with it.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by smoothcall View Post
                              Downtown has nut flush draw a lot here, sets and 57s sometimes. not AA/KK if hes playing remotely well. Guy behind can easily call pre with 57, but also 66, 33, 46s, FD, Overpair find out where I am/ protect raise. I'd go with it.
                              Yeah it's a call. It obviously sucks when one of them flips over 66, but we have mucho outs versus 25 and 57 and all the pot odds, and their ranges are wider than that anyway.
                              Last edited by AndyFatBastard; 01-05-15, 15:48.
                              "I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson

                              Comment


                                #16
                                Originally posted by smoothcall View Post
                                Downtown has nut flush draw a lot here, sets and 57s sometimes. not AA/KK if hes playing remotely well. Guy behind can easily call pre with 57, but also 66, 33, 46s, FD, Overpair find out where I am/ protect raise. I'd go with it.
                                If I'm playing remotely well, I would prob check AA,KK on the flop. If I did take this line, my range would be mostly NFD and sets.

                                I most certainly wasn't playing too well though last night.

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  Fwiw I don't think I can fold this hand if I am in your spot. I could be raising with all 2pair combos as well as sets,straights and big draws.When downtown shoves his range narrows to big draws,sets, (rarely what he had I think)you're ahead of enough of these hands to make reshoving a feasible option and still have outs if you're beat.

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Instacall. Also no harm in a tight player opening 57s utg

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      So what happened? You lost obviously.
                                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                        So what happened? You lost obviously.
                                        Was all set to reship over the 5300 bet when Downtown re-shipped. His line completely baffled me and i had to bring top set & made straight into his range.

                                        Anyway I folded & it was AA v 57 for the straight with SF redraw which held.

                                        I still think in a lot of situations its a fold, but as mentioned below, perhaps in this particular game its a call? I dunno?






                                        Originally posted by DPablo View Post
                                        EOM is a fast enough structure and you don't get too many spots like this to accumulate the chips you need to go deep. As played I'm getting all my chips in there on such a draw heavy board.
                                        Last edited by Dice75; 06-05-15, 13:23.

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          Hand 1 is a fold

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            I would be 3bettng the flop to about 5/6k but now I think you have to fold which you did, wp, surprised at the shove by downtown tbh, has to fold imo, shitty board for AA with 7 players.

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              I don't like the fold at all, against the exact hands the opponents hand its pretty much neutral

                                              Hold'em Simulation
                                              903 trials (Exhaustive)
                                              board: 6c 4c 3s
                                              Hand Equity Wins Ties
                                              Ad Ah 1.88% 14 9
                                              5c 7c 69.32% 623 9
                                              4d 4h 28.79% 257 9

                                              Against likely ranges you are a pretty big fav:

                                              Hold'em Simulation ?
                                              382,872 trials (Exhaustive)
                                              board: 6c 4c 3s
                                              Hand Equity Wins Ties
                                              AA, QQ, 66, 44, 33, 5s7s, Ac c 21.11% 77,813 8,657
                                              57s, 66, 44, 33, 64s, 65s 35.70% 133,679 8,657
                                              4d 4h 43.19% 162,723 7,907


                                              Ac c is any club draw

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post
                                                I don't like the fold at all
                                                Not sure I like the fold either despite the outcome, hence the thread.

                                                Would a better structured tournament affect your decision?*

                                                *not that I'm criticizing the structure, it is what it is for a one night tournie but say it was a 2/3 day game?
                                                Last edited by Dice75; 06-05-15, 16:52.

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  I still cannot believe you folded Dice.
                                                  Was being knocked out early a factor?
                                                  People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
                                                  Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
                                                  https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21

                                                  Comment


                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Dice75 View Post
                                                    Not sure I like the fold either despite the outcome, hence the thread.

                                                    Would a better structured tournament affect your decision?
                                                    If the players ranges were different then I suppose so, but the way the action goes the original raiser gets to put all his chips in first with quite a lot of perceived fold equity, and the flop raiser doesn't need to have a set, so that means they can both have a reasonably wide range of hands. To put it bluntly if player 1 is in anyway aggressive he is going to shove almost any club draw. If the stacks were deeper it would be a very different hand.

                                                    If you change your hand to 33 your equity goes way down against their ranges.

                                                    Hold'em Simulation ?
                                                    379,260 trials (Exhaustive)
                                                    board: 6c 4c 3s
                                                    Hand Equity Wins Ties
                                                    AA, QQ, 66, 44, 33, 5s7s, Ac c 23.63% 86,604 8,609
                                                    57s, 66, 44, 33, 64s, 65s 48.12% 179,530 8,585
                                                    3d 3h 28.25% 104,517 7,859

                                                    Similarly if you had raised the original bet the hand would have been totally different.

                                                    Comment


                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by DeadParrot View Post
                                                      I still cannot believe you folded Dice.
                                                      Was being knocked out early a factor?
                                                      No

                                                      Comment


                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by Dice75 View Post
                                                        No
                                                        Such an odd line by DT, I'm sure most of not all would go broke here
                                                        People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
                                                        Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
                                                        https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21

                                                        Comment


                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by DeadParrot View Post
                                                          Such an odd line by DT, I'm sure most of not all would go broke here
                                                          Go broke With the set? Not necessarily. I folded a set of 6's on the turn last night in a three way pot on a Q106x board with 2 hearts and 2 diamonds. Went to showdown and the guy had 10's. Felt a bit sick folding it but was happy to see the 10's. Every hand that's not the nuts is "foldable".

                                                          I don't see how this hand isn't a fold. 7 way pot and major action. Obviously it's a lot harder to lay down in game.

                                                          Comment


                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by dobby View Post
                                                            Go broke With the set? Not necessarily. I folded a set of 6's on the turn last night in a three way pot on a Q106x board with 2 hearts and 2 diamonds. Went to showdown and the guy had 10's. Felt a bit sick folding it but was happy to see the 10's. Every hand that's not the nuts is "foldable".

                                                            I don't see how this hand isn't a fold. 7 way pot and major action. Obviously it's a lot harder to lay down in game.
                                                            I'll translate Deadparrots post into kerryism - Downtown had the aces and shouldn't have went broke
                                                            Redbet at the Dublin Poker Invasion FTW

                                                            Comment


                                                              #31
                                                              Very interesting hand and responses but I have to say in this exact spot and description on villain 2 (solid player) in the H/J or C/O 3bets 25% of his stack at the early stages,

                                                              Downtowns cbet is showing a lot of strength with 6 players to act behind on a very wet board. I'm sure villain 2 is aware of this as well, if villain 2 had say 33 imo he should be 3betting as should you with the 44, when Downtown ships I would be suspect of the nut draw but I don't know would he go with it, he did say he wasn't playing great as he showed that with shipping AA.

                                                              I think you made the correct decision as you obviously felt a lot of strength from downtown and with villain2 to act behind you who is also showing a lot of strength, you are pretty sure that you are behind and have to make the fold. GF

                                                              Comment


                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by The Aul Switcharoo View Post
                                                                I'll translate Deadparrots post into kerryism - Downtown had the aces and shouldn't have went broke
                                                                That's not what he meant but you carry on.

                                                                Comment


                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by dobby View Post
                                                                  That's not what he meant but you carry on.
                                                                  I think it is..

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by Flushdraw View Post
                                                                    I think it is..
                                                                    I disagree.

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by Flushdraw View Post
                                                                      I think it is..
                                                                      I think he meant most if not all people go broke with the set.

                                                                      I think it's super obvious the Aces are a fold there. But I also think the set is a fold, just hard to lay down in game.

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        #36
                                                                        I go bust here with the set 100/100 times and happily do so and would be unhappy if I didn't. I would like to think I very rarely go bust with aces so I am in the camp which believes that wasn't what dp meant.
                                                                        Go big or go homeless.

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          #37
                                                                          Yep, on reading it again, I agree that DP was saying about going broke with a set...which i do here.

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            #38
                                                                            Originally posted by Flushdraw View Post
                                                                            Yep, on reading it again, I agree that DP was saying about going broke with a set...which i do here.
                                                                            Wby do we have to go broke?

                                                                            Comment


                                                                              #39
                                                                              Originally posted by dobby View Post
                                                                              Wby do we have to go broke?
                                                                              Because we have the best hand A LOT

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                #40
                                                                                Originally posted by Flushdraw View Post
                                                                                Because we have the best hand A LOT
                                                                                Yes but not always which I why I can't understand going broke 100% of the time. Villain 2 in this hand has 3 players already in ahead of him so calling with shitty hands like he had is a huge possibility.

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  #41
                                                                                  Originally posted by dobby View Post
                                                                                  Yes but not always which I why I can't understand going broke 100% of the time. Villain 2 in this hand has 3 players already in ahead of him so calling with shitty hands like he had is a huge possibility.
                                                                                  Please carry on believing 5c7c is a 'shitty hand'. Tell all your mates.

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    #42
                                                                                    Mad thread. Folding middle set 70bbs deep on a super draw heavy board when we are more than priced in against the flopped nuts seems to be getting a lot of votes. Oprs post summed it up for me anyway

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                      #43
                                                                                      If you're folding a set of fours in this spot, what are you actually playing the fours for? Yeah, the flop isn't ideal, but it has a 4 on it! I'd be critical of your flat call on the flop. If you yourself re-pop, you've a very easy decision if reraised.

                                                                                      By calling, you're inviting squeezes, and draws to semi-bluff, leaving you not knowing where you are. Take the aggressive route. If you're against a flush draw, you're a 2 to 1 favourite. If you're against a straight, you're 35% to improve to a full house or better.

                                                                                      In the words of JCarver, don't be a nit bitch dude!

                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                        #44
                                                                                        I think you have to go with it here, but it's a bit closer than people seem to be suggesting. If you look at some of the ranges, it's very rare the 44 has less than 30% equity (we need around 30% for it to be a profitable call).

                                                                                        Even if you give the tightest range possible:
                                                                                        Player 1 (utg) - AcXc, 66, 33, 75s
                                                                                        Player 2 - 66, 75s, 75o

                                                                                        You still have ~24% equity.
                                                                                        (Also worth noting, if you give Player 2 the nut flush draw range and Downtown only the made hands of 66, 33 and 57s, your equity is about half a percent less)

                                                                                        These ranges assume a few probably unrealistic things:
                                                                                        - Downtown doesn't have the likes of 57o or 52s in his range as he wouldn't open pre with these hands
                                                                                        - Player 2 only plays 66 here i.e. he doesn't go broke with bottom set. (I've assumed DT can go broke with bottom set because it's easier for Player 2 to fold 33 if DT shoves and you reshove, whereas it's harder/impossible for DT to open fold a set to one raise)
                                                                                        - 52o or 52s aren't in Player 2's range either as he wouldn't play them pre
                                                                                        - all other hands like AA, 56, non nut flush draws etc are never played by either player
                                                                                        - we also assume you're getting it in 3-way (i.e. guy behind who made it 5300 never folds)


                                                                                        These ranges however are ridiculously tight. The only thing is, how many more hands can Player 2 realistically have? Based on your read:
                                                                                        A) is he ever raise-folding a hand like 77 (or raise-folding any hand for that matter)? (based on your read mentioned in OP, the answer is no)
                                                                                        B) does he play 64, 63, 43 pre and get it in here?
                                                                                        C) Is it fair to include hands like 65, 54, Kc5c in his range or is he more likely to flat with these kind of hands?
                                                                                        D) does he call pre with 57o
                                                                                        E) does he go broke with 33 here

                                                                                        I think D) and E) are quite crucial. If he folds 75o pre, I think you have to fold 44 - although it's very difficult to know if he calls 75s pre but folds 75o! If 75o is in his range, and so is 33, I think you've enough equity to call when you factor in the possibility of some other hands.

                                                                                        All in all, I call, but it's close enough. It really depends on how tight player 2 is. A lot of tight Irish players only raise with their made hands (33, 66, 75 namely) here and all other hands (stuff like 65) they just flat call.
                                                                                        Given it's a one day tournament with a fast structure, I get it in happily enough. If it's a 3-day tournament with a really good structure, it's a more difficult decision I think.
                                                                                        Last edited by Jam-Fly; 09-05-15, 12:01.
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                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                          #45
                                                                                          Originally posted by specter View Post
                                                                                          I I'd be critical of your flat call on the flop.

                                                                                          By calling, you're inviting squeezes, and draws to semi-bluff, leaving you not knowing where you are. Take the aggressive route. If you're against a flush draw, you're a 2 to 1 favourite. If you're against a straight, you're 35% to improve to a full house or better.

                                                                                          In the words of JCarver, don't be a nit bitch dude!

                                                                                          That's exactly what I was doing, I just didn't want a double squeeze vs 2 very competent players (player 2 was "The Istanbul" who replied above). Why would i want to bet someone off a draw when i know what I want to see/not see on the turn, which is the street I'd much rather be getting it in on.

                                                                                          fwiw - I initially had DT on big pair and my reason for flatting was to get it in vs a squeeze behind HU on the flop or vs DT on a non turn when I expect him to commit (he had 11k behind with 10k in the middle had the player behind me folded the flop). What I didn't bargain on was his flop shove which completely threw me.

                                                                                          Anyway, as I said, I think folding was a mistake in this instance even if I'm up against 57/NFD/33 combos. If either shows up with 66, c'est la vie. In a 3/4 day Event with 1 hour blinds, maybe its a bit closer (as JamFly says above)

                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                            #46
                                                                                            Originally posted by specter View Post
                                                                                            If you're folding a set of fours in this spot, what are you actually playing the fours for? Yeah, the flop isn't ideal, but it has a 4 on it! I'd be critical of your flat call on the flop. If you yourself re-pop, you've a very easy decision if reraised.

                                                                                            By calling, you're inviting squeezes, and draws to semi-bluff, leaving you not knowing where you are. Take the aggressive route. If you're against a flush draw, you're a 2 to 1 favourite. If you're against a straight, you're 35% to improve to a full house or better.

                                                                                            In the words of JCarver, don't be a nit bitch dude!
                                                                                            This feels like a post from 2005! Poker isn't about knowing where you are or easy decisions, it's about profitable decisions.

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                              #47
                                                                                              Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post
                                                                                              This feels like a post from 2005! Poker isn't about knowing where you are or easy decisions, it's about profitable decisions.
                                                                                              This is basically stating the obvious, thanks for that.

                                                                                              OP has referred to his 2 opponents in a way to suggest that they are both competent. We have 2 opponents showing strength against us in this hand. Top set must enter the fray also.
                                                                                              Folding in this spot is not a poor decision.

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                #48
                                                                                                Fold with them reads. Giving Villan 2 46s,33,66,57s and a5cc.

                                                                                                Rory is good so him snap shoving should make his range A5cc or sets (doesn't open 57s especially at a table where he's getting 7callers). He should possibly fold bottom set but presuming he gets it in we have under 20% equity 3 way. Rory is easily folding all overpairs here.
                                                                                                Last edited by GaryT; 09-05-15, 14:54.

                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                  #49
                                                                                                  Originally posted by GaryT View Post
                                                                                                  Fold with them reads. Giving Villan 2 46s,33,66,57s and a5cc.

                                                                                                  Rory is good so him snap shoving should make his range A5cc or sets (doesn't open 57s especially at a table where he's getting 7callers). He should possibly fold bottom set but presuming he gets it in we have under 20% equity 3 way. Rory is easily folding all overpairs here.
                                                                                                  Rory has already been on to say he had the aces! Or maybe dice mentioned it. Either way, he didn't fold.

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