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    #61
    Originally posted by Keane View Post
    It's gone now alright - they've taken down all the corners and cards markets.

    Any idea about how/when they notify you about voids?
    Not sure how laddies do their business re errors. Some companies admit to mistakes and just pay out(sportingbet.com), others always void after results. Prob wont notify you either. You could notify them beforehand to see whats up but then you're drawing attention to your bet. Seems a horrible situation as you've invested a good bit of the roll in the arb.

    Gimmeabreak may no more about this sort of thing.
    Last edited by The Situation; 09-11-11, 18:08. Reason: possibly the most grammar errors of all time
    Profit before people.

    Comment


      #62
      Originally posted by The Situation View Post
      Not sure how laddies do their business re errors. Some companies admit to mistakes and just pay out(sportingbet.com), others always void after results. Prob wont notify you either. You could notify them beforehand to see whats up but then you're drawing attention to your bet. Seems a horrible situation as you've invested a good bit of the roll in the arb.

      Gimmeabreak may no more about this sort of thing.
      Looking at their T&Cs they don't void when they price a market wrong they just pay out at whatever they reckon the price "should have been".

      It's not really a big deal anyway, I added onto the roll specifically to try and cash in on this so the original roll can still be measured for progress and whatnot. It would be a cheap enough lesson about the risks of arbitrage, and the whole point of the log is to be less shit at betting sports in general so it's all part of it!

      Comment


        #63
        Originally posted by SICKPUPPY View Post
        Well they have an excellent european pedigree but are really floudering thsi year with one win in France.
        They have there world cup players back Harinordoquay captain fantastic and Yachvilli at 9.
        With Saracens and Ospreys and an improving Treviso side hard toos ee the value in 2/1
        there main goal will be top 14 in France
        Well it's because of their European form is why i think its a reasonably good bet, they've topped their groups in the last 2 seasons. Like you said they have returning from WC Hari and Yachvilli who can keep them alive in any game , as well as Traille and the US's Ngweyna who can be class on their day. Like Northampton they are a team that are sick of finishing second in the HCup and will be hungry.

        While Sarries are the favorites for the group based on their Aviva form, their European form in recent years is erratic at best, bottom of their group last year, weren't even in the HCup the previous 2 years (admittedly in '08 they did top the group which included Biarittz and went on top the semi Final). Obv a crucial match will be on the 19th when they play Biarritz away. Another unqiue note on this groups is that the Sarries home match against Biarritz is being played in Capetown, which should lessen the home advantage of that game.

        I think Ospreys are not going to be as strong a team this year with the loss of Hook and most importantly Mike Phillips. Biggar is a capable FH and Ospreys pack will be good but in fairness all teams in this group have solid packs. But it they will still be very tough for any team at home.

        Treviso are improving, i agree , Biarittz should still get the wins from both of those fixtures, as should the other teams, but Treviso could cause an upset along the way.

        Overall its a tight group, but Biarritz have points scorers on their team, losing BP could be very important in this group to determine the final outcome.
        I think if you ran this group 3 times Biarittz top it at least once.

        Comment


          #64
          Bet #5 - Uruguay vs Chile WCQ

          This should have said "Got on Uruguay".



          Total Stake: 2 units

          Initial Bank: 313 units
          Current Bank: 227.5units
          At Risk: 87.5 units (85.5 Arb)
          Profit/Loss: 2 units
          Last edited by Keane; 23-11-11, 22:42.

          Comment


            #65
            Bet #6 - Harlequins vs Connacht (HEC)

            Went ahead and backed Harlequins -16 this morning @ 11/10 w/B365.

            We had been holding out on this initially as Ladbrokes were offering -15 earlier in the week and we have a free €50 bet available after tonight, but with the line moving to -16 I decided just to take it for 2 units w/B365

            Total Stake: 2 units

            Initial Bank: 313 units
            Current Bank: 221.5units
            At Risk: 89.5 units (85.5 Arb)
            Profit/Loss: -2 units
            Last edited by Keane; 23-11-11, 22:48.

            Comment


              #66
              Agbonlahor out for England for tomorrow night, temptation to back Spain to win 1-0 and 2-0 increasing...

              Comment


                #67
                Originally posted by Keane View Post
                Agbonlahor out for England for tomorrow night, temptation to back Spain to win 1-0 and 2-0 increasing...
                PP with a money back offer also if England win

                Comment


                  #68
                  Originally posted by KevIRL View Post
                  PP with a money back offer also if England win
                  Nice one didn't realise that...

                  Comment


                    #69
                    Bet #7 - Estonia vs Ireland ECQ

                    Spent a bit of time thinking about this game during the week and talked about a weakness I perceived in Estonia's scoring power on the Football Betting thread here, here & here.

                    With this and PP's money back on losing Correct Score bets I decided to put the following on:

                    Estonia 0 - 0 Ireland - 2 units @ 9/2
                    Estonia 1 - 0 Ireland - 1.5 units @ 13/2
                    Estonia 1 - 1 Ireland - 1.8 units @ 5/1
                    Estonia 0 - 1 Ireland - 2 units @ 9/2

                    which basically equated to a freeroll as long as Estonia didn't score two goals which I was very confident wouldn't happen.

                    It was looking good after twelve minutes that at least we wouldn't lose anything, but obv Ireland went on to crush so no profit, but how bad.

                    (not going to bother updating the running total here as this was a bet designed to be ~risk-free and ended up not affecting the roll at all)
                    Last edited by Keane; 12-11-11, 02:11.

                    Comment


                      #70
                      Originally posted by Keane View Post
                      Noticed this morning that Ladbrokes had the over 55 points card index priced up out of whack with everywhere else on the Bosnia – Portugal match on Friday, which allowed a nice bit of Arbitrage when coupled with the Under 35 and Between 35 & 55 markets on Victor Chandler.

                      At the time I backed them the prices were:

                      Case 1: Over 55 points - 11/4 (Ladbrokes)
                      Case 2: Between 35 & 55 - 15/8 (VC)
                      Case 3: Under 35 points - 23/10 (VC)

                      Ended up punting according to this:



                      Weird amounts I know, but the idea was to bet as little as possible (life-busto ) while maximising profit and getting the full €50 free bet bonus from Ladbrokes.

                      The outcomes should be as follows:

                      Case 1 Profit: €16.81
                      Case 2 Profit: €14.75
                      Case 3 Profit: €14.74

                      Nice profit considering our unit size is €2, assuming I haven't made a mess of it.

                      Total Stake: 85 units
                      Net Result: +7 units (min, 8 units max)

                      Initial Bank: 213 units
                      Current Bank: 212 units
                      At Risk: 85 units (Arb)
                      Profit/Loss: -1 units
                      Winner

                      Happily avoided any drama about voided bets and all the rest here with the Unders coming up trumps for a profit of 7.3 more or less risk-free units

                      Initial Bank: 313 units
                      Current Bank: 314.3 units
                      At Risk: 4 units
                      Profit/Loss: 5.3 units
                      Last edited by Keane; 23-11-11, 22:49.

                      Comment


                        #71
                        Originally posted by Keane View Post


                        Total Stake: 2 units

                        Initial Bank: 213 units
                        Current Bank: 217.5 units
                        At Risk: 2 units
                        Profit/Loss: 4.5 units
                        Winner

                        2 units @ 8/13 = 1.2 units profit

                        Initial Bank: 313 units
                        Current Bank: 317.5 units
                        At Risk: 2 units
                        Profit/Loss: 4.5 units
                        Last edited by Keane; 23-11-11, 22:49.

                        Comment


                          #72
                          Originally posted by Keane View Post
                          Went ahead and backed Harlequins -16 this morning @ 11/10 w/B365.

                          We had been holding out on this initially as Ladbrokes were offering -15 earlier in the week and we have a free €50 bet available after tonight, but with the line moving to -16 I decided just to take it for 2 units w/B365

                          Total Stake: 2 units

                          Initial Bank: 213 units
                          Current Bank: 215.5 units
                          At Risk: 4 units
                          Profit/Loss: 2.5 units
                          Loser

                          I didn't get to see this game and I'm pretty sure Alan didn't either - I'll leave the post-mortem up to him as he said he'll probably watch it during the week.

                          Initial Bank: 313 units
                          Current Bank: 315.5 units
                          At Risk: 0 units
                          Profit/Loss: 2.5 units
                          Last edited by Keane; 23-11-11, 22:50.

                          Comment


                            #73
                            Think there's a unit or two gone astray somewhere between all the cutting and pasting, but I'm gonna run with the total from here as being correct just for simplicity.

                            Comment


                              #74
                              Bet #8 - Soccer Bet (Tip)

                              Loser

                              Got a tip about a soccer match that I decided to follow. Didn't come in.

                              Initial Bank: 313 units
                              Current Bank: 313.5 units
                              At Risk: 0 units
                              Profit/Loss: 0.5 units
                              Last edited by Keane; 23-11-11, 22:50.

                              Comment


                                #75
                                Lessons learned this weekend:

                                1. Don't bet on friendlies
                                2. Don't follow tips
                                3. Back the + side of handicaps in opening rounds of rugby competitions - underdogs seem to put forth a lot of effort in early games, and their physicality matches up in early rounds before the few games beatings have taken their toll.

                                Comment


                                  #76
                                  found this online in view of free bet offers,not sure if its any good to ye but no harm looking in to it ie.olbg.com/free_bets.php
                                  Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                                  Comment


                                    #77
                                    Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
                                    found this online in view of free bet offers,not sure if its any good to ye but no harm looking in to it ie.olbg.com/free_bets.php
                                    Nice one, thanks for that.

                                    We've got cash spread across PP, B365 and Victor Chandler now so have a couple of options but definitely need to keep branching out and these free bets are such a great bankroll booster if you can ping a couple of winners.

                                    We've a free €50 bet on Ladbrokes to use now to hopefully get ourselves up & running with a roll there, after that we'll be looking to avail of more of these offers again.

                                    Comment


                                      #78
                                      Originally posted by Semibluff View Post
                                      Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                      I know we said we're not backing Intl Friendlies anymore but there might be a tiny bit of value in Germany 10/11 against Holland in Hamburg.

                                      Holland were poor the other night against Switzerland I'm told, and will have neither VDV (injured) nor RVP (rested) in the team tonight, with Sneijder also having sat out the end of training last night so possibly missing as well.

                                      I have a €50 free bet on Ladbrokes that I may stick on this...
                                      "i know we said . . . BUT"

                                      If your only a few weeks into everything, and you've only got a few initial guidelines or rules, the above being one. You should listen to them
                                      You should also want an enormous reason to go against it. The above isnt it IMO.

                                      What do we know about the German team? There should be good motivational factors for both teams to try (albeit a little light the dutch)
                                      What price would you make it yourself? What % does this have to be out by before you are happy enough to get involved?

                                      The price you make it compared to a friendly should also differ. Point being, Id need a lot of positives and a much higher edge to punt an international game than a competitive one. And even at that, the info you can get from the BBC snippet, will never have you ahead of the market, but Neutral EV flipping at best

                                      Also, Dont feel such an urge to use the Ladbrokes bet unless your under time constraints. Its still money, view it as serious a bet as any other
                                      Originally posted by Semibluff View Post
                                      no probs David - If my advice is worth anything, more than happy to help. So feel free to ask!

                                      look at team news, price games up (without knowing proper prices) and then see how far off you are. Those you were miles off, watch them or read a few match reports. Also see what the off price was. If market shortens your direction and/or the game is all your way, then your doing something right.

                                      Id recommend doing this more so in leagues than random friendlies were you have very little to back it up on and so much guess work (substitutions - motivation etc)
                                      A few well needed home truths here
                                      Last edited by Keane; 15-11-11, 11:55.

                                      Comment


                                        #79
                                        regarding your free bet on laddies, Does it only have to be placed on friday or settled?
                                        48

                                        Comment


                                          #80
                                          Not sure, I guess only has to be put on by then - I'll check it this evening with Support when I get home from work.

                                          Comment


                                            #81
                                            just place it b4, so its finished b4 fri or whatever - checking with support flags you as a bonus whore
                                            GAA News Website

                                            Comment


                                              #82
                                              Bonus Bet - Ladbrokes €50

                                              Ended up taking a stab with this one:

                                              Originally posted by Semibluff View Post
                                              for your bet,
                                              laddies and a few others have portugal 1.44 tonight
                                              Sbo (a very good guide) have it 1.38
                                              Betfair have it 143/144 (which would need commission factored in after this)
                                              So without even looking at anything team news wise, this is never a bad bet

                                              Belarus to beat libya is
                                              162/164 with bf (commision not factored yet)
                                              158 with sbo
                                              and 1.67 with Laddies

                                              Do these two in a double.
                                              Higher variance but increases your edge slightly. Using the bf line at present as the correct line this gives you a decent edge (even if you had the mythical 2% commission rate on bf)

                                              These are just 2 bets i found by skimming for 5 mins with 3 pages open, minus any team news what so ever

                                              if you work out the extra edge you get here let me know, wouldnt be my exact strong point and i also couldnt be arsed
                                              After doing a few EV calculations it looked like a pretty nice spot:

                                              Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                              Assuming I've done the calculations right, taking the Betfair odds as the true line gives us:

                                              Edge on Portugal game alone: 0.7%
                                              Edge on Belarus game alone: 2.46%
                                              Edge on accumulated odds: 3.28%

                                              A nice bit bigger if SBO is the true line obv:

                                              Edge on Portugal game alone: 4.34%
                                              Edge on Belarus game alone: 5.7%
                                              Edge on accumulated odds: 10.08%
                                              Unfortunately didn't even get a sweat on the Portugal game as Belarus went and got two men sent off in drawing 1-1 against Libya.

                                              Oh well, today still super-profitable in terms of getting some great advice if not in terms of the bankroll.

                                              Looking forward to resumption of normal EPL schedule this weekend, will hopefully be able to find a decent spot or two.

                                              Comment


                                                #83
                                                List of Considerations for Pricing Soccer Matches

                                                Overall team quality
                                                • Relative strengths of teams in a vacuum

                                                Team news
                                                • Are there players who either team are exceptionally reliant on (e.g. Rooney, Van Persie) that are missing?
                                                • Are there any players who may not be identifiably injured but whom the manager may unexpectedly decide to rest (e.g. Van Der Vaart)?
                                                • Can team news in previous games inform our reading of form etc. of those games (e.g. Arsenal's form changing dramatically when RVP is in/out)?

                                                Player Matchups
                                                • Does Team A have a slow CB pairing which can be exploited by a particularly quick striker for Team B?
                                                • Are there any players who have a psychological edge over their direct opponent (e.g. Torres vs Vidic)?
                                                • Is anyone playing out of position up against a particularly dangerous opponent (e.g. Carragher at full-back vs Nani)?

                                                Team Matchups
                                                • Does this team have any particular strength which matches up well with a weakness of the opposition (e.g. good counter-attack vs a team with lazy wingers, aerial threat vs a team poor at defending corners, excellent free taker vs team poor at defending set pieces etc.)?

                                                Home form vs Away form
                                                • How have the team been performing in their last several games?
                                                • Has the team's home form been noticeably different to their away form and how is that likely to affect their chances?
                                                • How many goals has the team been scoring/conceding lately at home/away?
                                                • How does their tactical approach vary between home games and away games?

                                                Performances against similar opposition
                                                • Does this team change its approach to playing a top six club compared to playing relegation battlers? If so, how effective have they been against opposition similar to their next opponents?

                                                Motivational factors
                                                • Is this a derby match?
                                                • Is there any special history between these two sides (e.g. Arsenal vs Stoke)?

                                                Impact of previous games
                                                • Have the team suffer a setback or have a good win?
                                                • Have the team had a particularly grueling encounter in their previous game?
                                                • Are the team coming back after a European game? If so, were they at home or away, and how do they usually perform after European games?

                                                Impact of future games
                                                • How will the team's approach to this game be affected by upcoming fixtures?
                                                • Is there a big Euro game coming up which may make them rest important players or withdraw them early?
                                                • Is the team more interested in an upcoming game against a relegation/title rival next week than a game against a team at the opposite end of the table this week?

                                                Conditions
                                                • Is there a chance bad weather could reduce the gap between the teams?
                                                • Is the game at a ground likely to be more or less affected by wind and rain?
                                                • What sort of state is the pitch in and how will it likely affect the teams' ability to play their usual game at their usual tempo?

                                                Referee
                                                • Is the referee's style more conducive to one team's style of play over the other's?
                                                • If a referee is particularly strict/lenient how will that effect a particularly tough/fragile or disciplined/indisciplined side?

                                                Comment


                                                  #84
                                                  Anything missing from above?

                                                  Comment


                                                    #85
                                                    Bet #9 - Munster Club Football Championship - Moyle Rovers vs UCC

                                                    Got some team news that Moyle Rovers were likely to be missing a few players for this game this morning.

                                                    Had a look on oddschecker and saw that Paddy Power had shortened UCC's odds (having already been shorter than B365 afair) to 1/4, while B365 were still at 4/11.

                                                    I figure that's pretty much got to be a bet at that point and stuck 2.5 units on it.

                                                    B365 have since shortened slightly to 1/3 so looks like it was a reasonable spot to have gone for, even with the pretty short odds.

                                                    Initial Bank: 313 units
                                                    Current Bank: 311 units
                                                    At Risk: 2.5 units
                                                    Profit/Loss: 0 units
                                                    Last edited by Keane; 23-11-11, 22:53.

                                                    Comment


                                                      #86
                                                      Bet #10 - Polish Premier League

                                                      Got word last night that there had been an outbreak of food poisoning in the Jagiellonia Bialystok team, particularly in their poorly covered backline.

                                                      They take on Slask Wroclaw, who are top of the Polish PL, tonight.

                                                      Best price available last night was 13/8 on the Slask win with PP, so I took that ahead of an expected shortening of the price this morning when the news broke.

                                                      Best price available now is 6/4 with Stan James while PP have shortened to 7/5, so again looks like a bit of an edge there.

                                                      2.5 units risked.

                                                      Initial Bank: 313 units
                                                      Current Bank: 308.5 units
                                                      At Risk: 5 units
                                                      Profit/Loss: -4.5 units
                                                      Last edited by Keane; 23-11-11, 22:57.

                                                      Comment


                                                        #87
                                                        Above is ~5.2% edge on the Betfair line not including commission FWIW.

                                                        Comment


                                                          #88
                                                          Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                          Got word last night that there had been an outbreak of food poisoning in the Jagiellonia Bialystok team, particularly in their poorly covered backline.

                                                          They take on Slask Wroclaw, who are top of the Polish PL, tonight.

                                                          Best price available last night was 13/8 on the Slask win with PP, so I took that ahead of an expected shortening of the price this morning when the news broke.

                                                          Best price available now is 6/4 with Stan James while PP have shortened to 7/5, so again looks like a bit of an edge there.

                                                          2.5 units risked.

                                                          Initial Bank: 309 units
                                                          Current Bank: 308.5 units
                                                          At Risk: 5 units
                                                          Profit/Loss: -0.5 units
                                                          Just read about this elsewhere, must back now obv. Sure throw in the -1 (4/1) and -2 (13/1) for the craic too

                                                          Comment


                                                            #89
                                                            Originally posted by KevIRL View Post
                                                            Just read about this elsewhere, must back now obv. Sure throw in the -1 (4/1) and -2 (13/1) for the craic too
                                                            I figure the market's probably somewhat adjusted by now so some of the value is probably gone, I don't want to steam into it anyway until I know the source of the early team news is reliable but good luck with your bets.

                                                            Comment


                                                              #90
                                                              Originally posted by Flushdraw View Post
                                                              Ok i'll ask. Who's trytime?

                                                              I like the look of the above bets. I think Everton v Wolves is a stone wall unders bet tho, and Sunderland v Fulham doesn't look like there's too many goals in it either.

                                                              Where did you get this table?

                                                              Most interesting stats are stoke and west brom.

                                                              Comment


                                                                #91
                                                                Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                We've been working on a model for predicting Over/Unders in soccer matches as well, so here's a few of those I'll be looking at and deciding on after the Intl games:

                                                                Overs:
                                                                Norwich vs Arsenal
                                                                Spurs vs Villa

                                                                Unders:
                                                                Stoke v QPR
                                                                Swansea v Man United
                                                                I think there is huge value in the Norwich v Arsenal game with Arsenal being the away team but nowhere near as much if the home/away is reversed.

                                                                Comment


                                                                  #92
                                                                  Originally posted by Flushdraw View Post
                                                                  .

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    #93
                                                                    Originally posted by CheckRaise View Post
                                                                    I think there is huge value in the Norwich v Arsenal game with Arsenal being the away team but nowhere near as much if the home/away is reversed.
                                                                    You mean in the overs market?

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      #94
                                                                      yes

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        #95
                                                                        I wrote this out in response to some guy backing Kilmurray tomorrow but said fuck it, why spoil his sweat. Might as well post it somewhere.

                                                                        My two cents if you're interested:

                                                                        Kilmurray were blessed to win Munster in 2009, beating Kerins O'Rahillys by a point on a dreadful day with a ref to match who gave them everything, O'Rahillys being denied a goal in the last ten minutes for the most lol square ball decision you're likely to see and being denied a stone wall free straight in front of the posts to level it in the dying seconds.

                                                                        Their semi-final win was equally fortunate with Port Laois having a man sent off in the first minute, and they were soundly beaten by St. Gall's once their run of good fortune came to an end.

                                                                        They have major injury worries with Odhran O’Dwyer, John Daly and Niall Hickey all struggling and are travelling down to play the game in Fitzgerald's Stadium on what may as well be Crokes home pitch.

                                                                        With the weather forecasted to be fairly reasonable tomorrow I can't see Kilmurray causing an upset, with the 11/10 about Crokes -4 looking about right.

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          #96
                                                                          Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                          Got word last night that there had been an outbreak of food poisoning in the Jagiellonia Bialystok team, particularly in their poorly covered backline.

                                                                          They take on Slask Wroclaw, who are top of the Polish PL, tonight.

                                                                          Best price available last night was 13/8 on the Slask win with PP, so I took that ahead of an expected shortening of the price this morning when the news broke.

                                                                          Best price available now is 6/4 with Stan James while PP have shortened to 7/5, so again looks like a bit of an edge there.

                                                                          2.5 units risked.

                                                                          Initial Bank: 309 units
                                                                          Current Bank: 308.5 units
                                                                          At Risk: 5 units
                                                                          Profit/Loss: -0.5 units
                                                                          Nice spot, took the -1.
                                                                          This too shall pass.

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            #97
                                                                            Last minute og gives Slask a 2-0 win

                                                                            Comment


                                                                              #98
                                                                              Sweet, just saw it was a winner now - EZ game

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                #99
                                                                                Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                                Got some team news that Moyle Rovers were likely to be missing a few players for this game this morning.

                                                                                Had a look on oddschecker and saw that Paddy Power had shortened UCC's odds (having already been shorter than B365 afair) to 1/4, while B365 were still at 4/11.

                                                                                I figure that's pretty much got to be a bet at that point and stuck 2.5 units on it.

                                                                                B365 have since shortened slightly to 1/3 so looks like it was a reasonable spot to have gone for, even with the pretty short odds.

                                                                                Initial Bank: 309 units
                                                                                Current Bank: 311 units
                                                                                At Risk: 2.5 units
                                                                                Profit/Loss: 2 units
                                                                                Winner

                                                                                UCC ended up winning this extremely comfortably in the end. Obv short price bets like this are going to be a long time making you rich but I think the logic/approach to why this was a good bet was right which is the main thing. Win roughly a unit.

                                                                                Initial Bank: 313 units
                                                                                Current Bank: 312 units
                                                                                At Risk: 2.5 units
                                                                                Profit/Loss: -1 units
                                                                                Last edited by Keane; 23-11-11, 23:01.

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                                  Got word last night that there had been an outbreak of food poisoning in the Jagiellonia Bialystok team, particularly in their poorly covered backline.

                                                                                  They take on Slask Wroclaw, who are top of the Polish PL, tonight.

                                                                                  Best price available last night was 13/8 on the Slask win with PP, so I took that ahead of an expected shortening of the price this morning when the news broke.

                                                                                  Best price available now is 6/4 with Stan James while PP have shortened to 7/5, so again looks like a bit of an edge there.

                                                                                  2.5 units risked.

                                                                                  Initial Bank: 309 units
                                                                                  Current Bank: 308.5 units
                                                                                  At Risk: 5 units
                                                                                  Profit/Loss: -0.5 units
                                                                                  Winner

                                                                                  Nice touch, up another 4 units.

                                                                                  Initial Bank: 313 units
                                                                                  Current Bank: 318.5 units
                                                                                  At Risk: 0 units
                                                                                  Profit/Loss: 5.5 units
                                                                                  Last edited by Keane; 23-11-11, 23:03.

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    Bet #11 - Soccer Game

                                                                                    Winner

                                                                                    Put on my €25 free bet with VC on an over/under bet in a soccer game, plus another 5 units of our main bankroll ended up showing another 42 units of profit between the jigs and the reels

                                                                                    Initial Bank: 313 units
                                                                                    Current Bank: 360.5 units
                                                                                    At Risk: 0 units
                                                                                    Profit/Loss: 47.5 units
                                                                                    Last edited by Keane; 23-11-11, 23:09.

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                      Pretty sure Alan stuck a few quid on Toulouse to cover the spread against Connacht yesterday evening as well, I'll get him to write it up tomorrow but overall looking like a decent few days from us.

                                                                                      If only I hadn't been too hungover to back the United 1-0 that I'd been talking about for days

                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                        Bet #12 - Connacht vs Toulouse - HEC

                                                                                        Got Toulouse for 5 units -10 @ 10/11 for Connacht game. Weather was big factor here. Toulouse could have been dragged to Connachts level if the the game was wet and windy. But in the end it was a clear calm night with only a slightly wet surface. Toulouse dominated both out wide and upfront(particularly at breakdown) and could have won by more in the end. Connacht saved face by getting a penalty try from a scrum. Worth noting too that despite the sellout of 9000 tickets and the fact that this was a rare match for Connacht, the atmosphere was poor and crowd never really lifted Connacht, unlike Ravenhill or Thomond.

                                                                                        Initial Bank: 313 units
                                                                                        Current Bank: 365.5 units
                                                                                        At Risk: 0 units
                                                                                        Profit/Loss: 52.5 units
                                                                                        Last edited by Keane; 23-11-11, 23:14. Reason: Fix the bolding on the account summary

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                          Bet #13 - Spurs vs Aston Villa - EPL

                                                                                          Have put 3 units on the over 2.5 in this game at 4/7 w/Victor Chandler. With 4/6 being the line most other places there should be a little sniff of value about 4/7.

                                                                                          As well as that, myself and Alan have agreed that putting little bets on to encourage us to watch games that we maybe wouldn't normally is something we can maybe consider as an investment in terms of getting more familiar with teams and that sort of thing.

                                                                                          Finally, my over/unders model flagged this game up as an overs candidate so...

                                                                                          All things considered this is probably a neutral EV bet tbh, bubt we're running good and it's got some non-financial value

                                                                                          Initial Bank: 313 units
                                                                                          Current Bank: 362.5 units
                                                                                          At Risk: 3 units
                                                                                          Profit/Loss: 49.5 units
                                                                                          Last edited by Keane; 23-11-11, 23:15.

                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                            Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                                            Have put 3 units on the over 2.5 in this game at 4/7 w/Victor Chandler. With 4/6 being the line most other places there should be a little sniff of value about 4/7.

                                                                                            As well as that, myself and Alan have agreed that putting little bets on to encourage us to watch games that we maybe wouldn't normally is something we can maybe consider as an investment in terms of getting more familiar with teams and that sort of thing.

                                                                                            Finally, my over/unders model flagged this game up as an overs candidate so...

                                                                                            All things considered this is probably a neutral EV bet tbh, but we're running good and it's got some non-financial value

                                                                                            Initial Bank: 309 units
                                                                                            Current Bank: 323.5 units
                                                                                            At Risk: 3 units
                                                                                            Profit/Loss: 14.5 units
                                                                                            Loser

                                                                                            Don't ask me how this didn't end up a winner, Adebayor could have scored eight.

                                                                                            Initial Bank: 313 units
                                                                                            Current Bank: 362.5 units
                                                                                            At Risk: 0 units
                                                                                            Profit/Loss: 49.5 units
                                                                                            Last edited by Keane; 23-11-11, 23:20.

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                              Bet #14 - Shakhtar Donetsk v Porto - ECL

                                                                                              Porto Win DNB - 2 units @ 11/10

                                                                                              Initial Bank: 313 units
                                                                                              Current Bank: 360.5 units
                                                                                              At Risk: 2 units
                                                                                              Profit/Loss: 47.5 units
                                                                                              Last edited by Keane; 23-11-11, 23:22.

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                Bet #15 - BATE Borisov v FC Viktoria Plzen - ECL

                                                                                                FC Viktoria Plzen Win - 2 units @ 23/10

                                                                                                Initial Bank: 313 units
                                                                                                Current Bank: 358.5 units
                                                                                                At Risk: 4 units
                                                                                                Profit/Loss: 45.5 units
                                                                                                Last edited by Keane; 23-11-11, 23:24.

                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                  Bet #16 - AC Milan v Barcelona - ECL

                                                                                                  Barcelona Win - 2 units @ 3/4

                                                                                                  Initial Bank: 313 units
                                                                                                  Current Bank: 356.5 units
                                                                                                  At Risk: 6 units
                                                                                                  Profit/Loss: 43.5 units
                                                                                                  Last edited by Keane; 23-11-11, 23:25.

                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                    Bet #17 - Bayer Leverkusen v Chelsea - ECL

                                                                                                    Chelsea Win -0.25 (AHC) - 2 units @ 1/1

                                                                                                    Initial Bank: 313 units
                                                                                                    Current Bank: 354.5 units
                                                                                                    At Risk: 8 units
                                                                                                    Profit/Loss: 41.5 units
                                                                                                    Last edited by Keane; 23-11-11, 23:25.

                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                      Bet #18 - Bayer Leverkusen v Chelsea - ECL

                                                                                                      Over 2.5 Goals - 2 units @ 1/1

                                                                                                      Initial Bank: 313 units
                                                                                                      Current Bank: 352.5 units
                                                                                                      At Risk: 10 units
                                                                                                      Profit/Loss: 39.5 units
                                                                                                      Last edited by Keane; 23-11-11, 23:26.

                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                        Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                                                        Porto Win DNB - 2 units @ 11/10

                                                                                                        Initial Bank: 309 units
                                                                                                        Current Bank: 321.5 units
                                                                                                        At Risk: 2 units
                                                                                                        Profit/Loss: 12.5 units
                                                                                                        Winner

                                                                                                        Initial Bank: 313 units
                                                                                                        Current Bank: 356.5 units
                                                                                                        At Risk: 8 units
                                                                                                        Profit/Loss: 43.5 units
                                                                                                        Last edited by Keane; 23-11-11, 23:27.

                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                          Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                                                          FC Viktoria Plzen Win - 2 units @ 23/10

                                                                                                          Initial Bank: 309 units
                                                                                                          Current Bank: 319.5 units
                                                                                                          At Risk: 4 units
                                                                                                          Profit/Loss: 10.5 units
                                                                                                          Winner

                                                                                                          Initial Bank: 313 units
                                                                                                          Current Bank: 363 units
                                                                                                          At Risk: 6 units
                                                                                                          Profit/Loss: 50 units
                                                                                                          Last edited by Keane; 23-11-11, 23:29.

                                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                                            Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                                                            Barcelona Win - 2 units @ 3/4

                                                                                                            Initial Bank: 309 units
                                                                                                            Current Bank: 317.5 units
                                                                                                            At Risk: 6 units
                                                                                                            Profit/Loss: 8.5 units
                                                                                                            Winner

                                                                                                            Initial Bank: 313 units
                                                                                                            Current Bank: 366.5 units
                                                                                                            At Risk: 4 units
                                                                                                            Profit/Loss: 53.5 units
                                                                                                            Last edited by Keane; 23-11-11, 23:30.

                                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                                              Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                                                              Chelsea Win -0.25 (AHC) - 2 units @ 1/1

                                                                                                              Initial Bank: 309 units
                                                                                                              Current Bank: 315.5 units
                                                                                                              At Risk: 8 units
                                                                                                              Profit/Loss: 6.5 units
                                                                                                              Loser

                                                                                                              Initial Bank: 313 units
                                                                                                              Current Bank: 366.5 units
                                                                                                              At Risk: 2 units
                                                                                                              Profit/Loss: 53.5 units
                                                                                                              Last edited by Keane; 23-11-11, 23:30.

                                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                                Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                                                                Winner

                                                                                                                Initial Bank: 309 units
                                                                                                                Current Bank: 331 units
                                                                                                                At Risk: 4 units
                                                                                                                Profit/Loss: 22 units
                                                                                                                Winner

                                                                                                                Initial Bank: 313 units
                                                                                                                Current Bank: 370.5 units
                                                                                                                At Risk: 0 units
                                                                                                                Profit/Loss: 57.5 units
                                                                                                                Last edited by Keane; 23-11-11, 23:32.

                                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                                  I dunno wtf I'm after missing as far as the bankroll goes but from the cash we have in the different accounts we look to be up by closer to 40 units.

                                                                                                                  Great night tonight anyway, need to double check all the deposits and transactions to try and square off the cash.

                                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                                    great selections tonight, keep up the good work

                                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                                      Excellent progress fair play!

                                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                                        This is where the missing profit shows up:

                                                                                                                        Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                                                                        Winner

                                                                                                                        Put on my €25 free bet with VC on an over/under bet in a soccer game, ended up showing another 8 units of profit between the jigs and the reels.

                                                                                                                        Initial Bank: 309 units
                                                                                                                        Current Bank: 321.5 units
                                                                                                                        At Risk: 0 units
                                                                                                                        Profit/Loss: 12.5 units
                                                                                                                        For one thing, I just counted the "profit" instead of adding the €25 free bet as a new addition to the bankroll, plus I actually had two bets on this match, one of which was incorrectly settled and later updated as a winner without me realising.

                                                                                                                        Here's what it should have looked like, I've updated it above.

                                                                                                                        Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                                                                        Winner

                                                                                                                        Put on my €25 free bet with VC on an over/under bet in a soccer game, plus another 5 units of our main bankroll ended up showing another 42 units of profit between the jigs and the reels

                                                                                                                        Initial Bank: 313 units
                                                                                                                        Current Bank: 360.5 units
                                                                                                                        At Risk: 0 units
                                                                                                                        Profit/Loss: 47.5 units

                                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                                          Correct tally to date:

                                                                                                                          Initial Bank: 313 units
                                                                                                                          Current Bank: 370.5 units
                                                                                                                          At Risk: 0 units
                                                                                                                          Profit/Loss: 57.5 units

                                                                                                                          Again, we're missing a couple of units here and there but this is close to correct and what I'll use going forward.

                                                                                                                          Comment

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