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Keane & Trytime's Lock of the Week

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    Keane & Trytime's Lock of the Week



    Myself and trytime have been trying to get a bit better at betting sports in the last couple of weeks and we decided we might as well throw up a log here in the hopes that posting our bets will force us to do proper analysis as well as hoping that people might give us a few tips and pointers about places we could be going wrong.

    We'll probably focus on soccer and rugby as those would be the two we'd have a bit of knowledge of, but will be seeing what tips we can find for other stuff and doing our own bit of analysis and hoping to learn more about other sports from that.

    Any and all advice and criticism welcomed

    Total Initial Units: 309
    Last edited by Keane; 16-11-11, 10:10.

    #2
    Bet #1 England vs Spain (12/11/11)

    Thinking of taking Spain @ 10/11.

    Spain squad pretty much full:

    SPOILER
    Iker Casillas (Real Madrid), Jose Reina (Liverpool), Victor Valdes (Barcelona); Sergio Ramos (Real Madrid), Alvaro Arbeloa (Real Madrid), Carles Puyol (Barcelona), Gerard Pique (Barcelona), Jordi Alba (Valencia), Raul Albiol (Real Madrid), Nacho Monreal (Malaga); Xavi (Barcelona), Xabi Alonso (Real Madrid), Sergio Busquets (Barcelona), Santi Cazorla (Malaga), Javi Martinez (Athletic Bilbao), Cesc Fabregas (Barcelona), Andres Iniesta (Barcelona); David Villa (Barcelona), David Silva (Manchester City), Fernando Torres (Chelsea), Fernando Llorente (Athletic Bilbao), Juan Mata (Chelsea), Jesus Navas (Sevilla)


    Here are their results in recent friendlies:

    SPOILER


    The Italy loss is mitigated by fairly severe injury problems, and the winning goal was a fluke deflection:

    SPOILER
    "Spain lost to Italy in an injury plagued pre-season friendly on Wednesday night. Puyol, Fàbregas, Sergio Ramos and Puyol were already unavailable, and after Torres, Piqué and Iraola all had to leave the field of play, Del Bosque was forced to draft midfielders Busquets and Javi Martínez in to a makeshift defence for the second half."

    The Chile game again saw a non-standard defensive lineup:

    SPOILER
    "Spain came back from two goals down to beat Chile 3-2 in a less-than-friendly international, which took place in St. Gallen, Switzerland. Isla and Vargas put the South Americans two up within twenty minutes, Del Bosque's experimental defence, with Javi Martínez in the back four, leaving a lot to be desired."

    Chile went two up early on, but Spain came back to win with Chile having two men sent off and the ref awarding Spain a dodgy penalty.

    With Puyol back in the side and after having a bit of a nightmare defensively in the last two games I'd expect Del Bosque to go back to tried and tested in the backline, which should see a return to more solid showings like the three shutouts that preceded the Italy game.

    VDB says they're taking it seriously:

    SPOILER
    "Before submitting the squad list for the Euros we have only three (more) games.
    "There will be some games to come after the squad get together, but we have to make the most of these matches.
    "England are a great team, and we will be playing in an extraordinary stadium - Wembley.
    "We tailor these games to be the best they can be for the team and for the federation. We have played five matches since the summer and no player has played 90 minutes in all of them, so I don't think that has come as a shock to their clubs."

    The only potential concern from the Spanish side is the game against Costa Rica so soon after, although you would expect them to play a stronger team against England and possibly give the fringe players a chance in the second game.

    England squad has a bit of an experimental look to it:

    SPOILER
    England squad: Hart (Man City), Carson (Bursaspor), Stockdale (Ipswich); G Johnson (Liverpool), Jones (Man Utd), Cahill (Bolton), Terry (Chelsea), Cole (Chelsea), Baines (Everton), Jagielka (Everton), Lescott (Man City), Walker (Tottenham); Lampard (Chelsea), Rodwell (Everton), Downing (Liverpool), Barry (Man City), A Johnson (Man City), Milner (Man City), Parker (Tottenham), Walcott (Arsenal); Bent (Aston Villa), Sturridge (Chelsea), Agbonlahor (Aston Villa), Zamora (Fulham), Welbeck (Man Utd).

    No Rooney, no Rio, no Ashley Young, no Micah Richards. Rodwell and Daniel Sturridge called up.

    A plus for England is the possibility of playing Bent and Agbonlahor up front together, with the two of them in great form for Villa at the moment.

    Slight suggestions Capello may field an experimental side, although I'd be surprised to see England line up at anything other than full strength:

    SPOILER
    "Capello wants to give his star striker a rest and will omit Rooney from his England squad for this month's friendlies with Spain and Sweden when it is named on Sunday evening.
    "It is a risk," admitted the coach.
    "But it will be very important to understand the value of the other players."

    Last meeting between the teams:
    Feb 2011 Spain 2 - 0 England
    "But with Xavi a class above anyone else on the pitch, Spain were simply too good and too effective in too many areas for the visitors."


    Thinking of putting two units on this one, can't see any reason not to expect a Spain win.

    EDIT: Used free €10 Skybet to back this @ 5/6

    Initial Bank: 313 units
    Current Bank: 313 units
    At Risk: 0 units
    Profit/Loss: 0 units
    Last edited by Keane; 23-11-11, 22:36.

    Comment


      #3
      We've been working on a model for predicting Over/Unders in soccer matches as well, so here's a few of those I'll be looking at and deciding on after the Intl games:

      Overs:
      Norwich vs Arsenal
      Spurs vs Villa

      Unders:
      Stoke v QPR
      Swansea v Man United
      Last edited by Keane; 07-11-11, 22:36.

      Comment


        #4
        good luck with this
        48

        Comment


          #5
          Does anybody know if PaddyPower do a first time deposit bonus by the way?

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by Keane View Post
            Does anybody know if PaddyPower do a first time deposit bonus by the way?
            b365 have the best by a long shot. Others available to see here

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by Emmet View Post
              b365 have the best by a long shot. Others available to see here

              http://www.oddschecker.com/free-bets.html
              Yeah we've availed of the B365 offer already. Cheers for the link.

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by Keane View Post
                We've been working on a model for predicting Over/Unders in soccer matches as well, so here's a few of those I'll be looking at and deciding on after the Intl games:

                Overs:
                Norwich vs Arsenal
                Spurs vs Villa

                Unders:
                Stoke v QPR
                Swansea v Man United
                really like the look of these.

                Comment


                  #9
                  No clue about soccer really
                  have opinions on rugby good luck with this.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by Keane View Post
                    We've been working on a model for predicting Over/Unders in soccer matches as well, so here's a few of those I'll be looking at and deciding on after the Intl games:

                    Overs:
                    Norwich vs Arsenal
                    Spurs vs Villa

                    Unders:
                    Stoke v QPR
                    Swansea v Man United
                    Ok i'll ask. Who's trytime?

                    I like the look of the above bets. I think Everton v Wolves is a stone wall unders bet tho, and Sunderland v Fulham doesn't look like there's too many goals in it either.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      all the best with this lads
                      Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Think Spain's problems in friendlies goes a bit deeper than the points you outlined. I seen Argies and Portugal hammer them last year where Spain just weren't bothered at all, similar story with the Italy game, lack of motivation being their main issue, obv injuries were a factor but they had more than enough attacking flair to beat a bad Italy side comfortably if they extended themselves a little. If this was a competitive game that price would be lump worthy but i'm fairly meh on price in a friendly.
                        Profit before people.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          What's trytime

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Originally posted by SICKPUPPY View Post
                            No clue about soccer really
                            have opinions on rugby good luck with this.
                            Yeah Alan (trytime) is going to be the guy coming up with the rugby stuff mostly probably - hoping to bounce a few ideas off yourself and a few of the other lads who seem to know their shit about it.

                            Originally posted by Flushdraw View Post
                            Ok i'll ask. Who's trytime?
                            trytime.

                            Lurker, sometime poster, one of my oldest and dearest friends and therefore a complete moron

                            Originally posted by Flushdraw View Post
                            I like the look of the above bets. I think Everton v Wolves is a stone wall unders bet tho, and Sunderland v Fulham doesn't look like there's too many goals in it either.
                            Cool, I'll take a look at those other two when I'm checking on the four I named above. Is that table of yours taken from a website or is it something you've been compiling yourself?

                            Looking at my model, the reason the Everton vs Wolves game wasn't flagged is that they've both conceded very regularly, and conceded more than one a bunch of times, particularly Wolves. The fact that both teams have struggled to score as well is the reason why it's fallen as neither an over or an under bet for us.

                            It's an interesting one.

                            The other one I'm less convinced about, as Sunderland have scored very well at home so far, while Fulham have conceded two away from home in three games out of five so far, with the other two games coming against WBA and Wigan. Again, it's definitely worth looking more into as I'm obv only in the process of putting the model together.

                            Originally posted by The Situation View Post
                            Think Spain's problems in friendlies goes a bit deeper than the points you outlined. I seen Argies and Portugal hammer them last year where Spain just weren't bothered at all, similar story with the Italy game, lack of motivation being their main issue, obv injuries were a factor but they had more than enough attacking flair to beat a bad Italy side comfortably if they extended themselves a little. If this was a competitive game that price would be lump worthy but i'm fairly meh on price in a friendly.
                            Cool, ty for the input. I'd be hoping that the natural hatred of England inherent in all Europeans would come to bear in terms of getting the Spanish up for this one, along with the fact that there's only three games to go before Del Bosque names his squad so maybe the players will be putting that bit more into it.

                            A full strength England would probably still not be anywhere near Argentina, maybe at a similar level to Portugal, but without one of their only world class players in Rooney I think they're very weak, and particularly badly put together for Spain since they keep the ball so badly.

                            I recognise that I loved the look of the bet the moment I saw it though and probably only researched to confirm my prejudice about it, so in deference to your opinion I've put the bet down using Skybet's free €10 bet, taking 5/6, rather than risk money from the main bankroll.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Actually Sitch that's something you could maybe give me the cliffnotes on - it's all well and good seeing a matchup like England - Spain, looking at form, team news and all the rest and deciding that I think Spain are likely to win, but what about equating that to a particular price being "value"?

                              Like at the moment, my way of looking at it is very simplistic like for an even money bet I'll say to myself "do I think they'll win one out of two, if so why isn't the price a little bit shorter".

                              Is there some sort of better thought out framework than that I could be using or thinking about?

                              Comment


                                #16
                                I get it, Keane set up a 2nd account so he can pass the blame when this goes south. Clever

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  And btw, punting international friendlies is a fast track to bustoville

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by The Hurricane View Post
                                    And btw, punting international friendlies is a fast track to bustoville
                                    Yeah it wouldn't be something I'd be looking at too regularly, but I think when too extremely high profile teams like this come up against one another both teams do go at it somewhat properly, although that's based on memory and intuition rather than any sort of stats.

                                    Wouldn't touch something like Greece vs Russia/France vs USA etc FWIW.

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                      Actually Sitch that's something you could maybe give me the cliffnotes on - it's all well and good seeing a matchup like England - Spain, looking at form, team news and all the rest and deciding that I think Spain are likely to win, but what about equating that to a particular price being "value"?

                                      Like at the moment, my way of looking at it is very simplistic like for an even money bet I'll say to myself "do I think they'll win one out of two, if so why isn't the price a little bit shorter".

                                      Is there some sort of better thought out framework than that I could be using or thinking about?
                                      Well yeah it is just basically percentages, traders price up games giving varying % weight to all the different factors like expected team, form, injuries, whose at home ect... When a price is value is when you think their line is
                                      wrong in comparison to your own pricing of the game for whatever reason.

                                      Like it's tough to find huge value regularly in prem games as lines are pretty accurate as bookies traders would obviously be fairly knowledgable of the bigger leagues, so key is to get on early to take advantage of any inaccuracies before value goes or get on quickly after teams have been announced before game if there's any surprises that you think would have an impact on the
                                      price. Having as many accounts as possible is also important as you'll never go too far wrong taking the biggest price possible.

                                      Where friendly games become tough to price up is that there's a lot more variables involved that wouldn't be as much a factor in regular games. Like how many changes the coach will make to the side, will he use many subs in the game, will he experiment with formation and the most unpredictable one of all- levels of effort. Like as I was alluding to above Spain would prob piss on England in a competitive match but recent friendly results show their levels of performances and level of motivation is no way as high in friendlies as in qualifiers.
                                      Last edited by The Situation; 08-11-11, 11:10.
                                      Profit before people.

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        Good luck with this, thanks for keeping a log.
                                        I Trade on Oddsfutures

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          QQ re bet365 bonus: are there any terms to it or if I join up now and place a €200 bet will I automatically get 200 free?

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            And do I need to put anything under bonus code when signing up?

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by FeetMagic View Post
                                              QQ re bet365 bonus: are there any terms to it or if I join up now and place a €200 bet will I automatically get 200 free?
                                              You get €200 into your account immediately that you can bet with, but you need to stake something like €800 before you can cash out I think.

                                              Emmet's the man to ask about it, but it should all be in the T&Cs anyway.

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                Emmet's the man to ask about it, but it should all be in the T&Cs anyway.
                                                I'm not really at all, have literally no interaction with the operations side of the games

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by FeetMagic View Post
                                                  QQ re bet365 bonus: are there any terms to it or if I join up now and place a €200 bet will I automatically get 200 free?
                                                  The maximum bonus that can be claimed is €200*.

                                                  To bet with your bonus, play through the amount of your qualifying deposit once on the sports and markets of your choice. You will need to rollover your deposit and bonus 3 times prior to making a withdrawal. So you need to have a bet turnover of €1200 before you can withdraw the €200 bonus.

                                                  If the stake rollover requirement for this bonus has not been met within 90 days of the first qualifying deposit any funds held in the bonus balance will be forfeited.

                                                  This offer is only available to customers residing in UK and Republic of Ireland.

                                                  The Offer Code must be entered within 7 days of the qualifying transaction. If a withdrawal or transfer out is actioned before the Offer Code is entered then any previous transactions will not count towards the initial qualifying criteria or subsequent rollover requirements.

                                                  Players can only have one active bonus at any one time. To claim another bonus the current active bonus must be completed or closed first.

                                                  Any bets placed containing selections at odds of less than 1/2 (1.50) will not count towards any rollover requirement.

                                                  Bets placed on asian handicap, goal line and Baseball money line markets, both pre-game and In-Play do not count towards any rollover requirement.

                                                  Bets placed on Financials which are closed early will not count towards any rollover requirement.

                                                  Bets placed on Instant Games will not count towards any rollover requirement.

                                                  Where any term of the offer or promotion is breached or there is any evidence of a series of bets placed by a customer or group of customers, which due to a deposit bonus, enhanced payments, free bets or any other promotional offer results in guaranteed customer profits irrespective of the outcome, whether individually or as part of a group, bet365 reserves the right to reclaim the bonus element of such offers and in their absolute discretion either settle bets at the correct odds, void the free bets or void any bet funded by the deposit bonus. In addition bet365 reserve the right to levy an administration charge on the customer up to the value of the deposit bonus, free bet or additional payment to cover administrative costs. We further reserve the right to ask any customer to provide sufficient documentation for us to be satisfied in our absolute discretion as to the customer's identity prior to us crediting any bonus, free bet or offer to their account.

                                                  All bet365 offers are intended for recreational players and bet365 may in its sole discretion limit the eligibility of customers to participate in all or part of any promotion.

                                                  All customer offers are limited to one per person, family, household address, email address, telephone number, same payment account number (e.g. debit or credit card, neteller etc), and shared computer, e.g. school, public library or workplace. We reserve the right to withdraw the availability of any offer or all offers to any customer or group of customers. Offers only apply to customers who have made a real money deposit with bet365.

                                                  bet365 reserves the right to amend, cancel, reclaim or refuse any promotion at its own discretio
                                                  I Trade on Oddsfutures

                                                  Comment


                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by HelloJellyFish View Post
                                                    To bet with your bonus, play through the amount of your qualifying deposit once on the sports and markets of your choice. You will need to rollover your deposit and bonus 3 times prior to making a withdrawal. So you need to have a bet turnover of €1200 before you can withdraw the €200 bonus.
                                                    l
                                                    This is the only point that I'm wondering about. By rollover your deposit & bonus 3 times does this mean you have to make 3 seperate bets of odds higher than 1.5 or can you bet the €400 on a 3/1 shot or greater so its turned over in one bet? Only doing this because I think there's a bit of value in your man Craig in xfactor at 4s (becoming 9s if I can get on for €400 at a cost of 2).

                                                    Comment


                                                      #27
                                                      No I'm pretty sure it means you'll have to stake €1200.

                                                      Comment


                                                        #28
                                                        think(not know) the deal amounts to if you make £1200 worth of bets at odds of 1.5 or greater over the course of 90 days you get £200 back.

                                                        So can deposit £200, bet £400 at 4s, and if a winner, then need to make a further £800 worth of bets to be able to cash out.

                                                        Comment


                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by FeetMagic View Post
                                                          This is the only point that I'm wondering about. By rollover your deposit & bonus 3 times does this mean you have to make 3 seperate bets of odds higher than 1.5 or can you bet the €400 on a 3/1 shot or greater so its turned over in one bet? Only doing this because I think there's a bit of value in your man Craig in xfactor at 4s (becoming 9s if I can get on for €400 at a cost of 2).
                                                          Ok, this is the way you can do it.

                                                          Deposit €200, bet €200 on Craig, that will release your €200 bonus, bet that and if you win you will have €2000.00 in your account.

                                                          From this you will need to stake I think €1000 in any form or amount before you can withdraw the €200.

                                                          I think you will be allowed to withdraw €1800, but will lose your bonus if you do before you matched the roll-over.

                                                          I can give them a quick call if you like, to make 100% sure, I have a account with them.
                                                          I Trade on Oddsfutures

                                                          Comment


                                                            #30
                                                            No mate cheers you are spot on. Have the 400€ on him now but you do have to stake €1200 total in 90 days to receive the bonus. I didn't question whether you can withdraw money made via the bonus which would be very handy as I'd be getting €1800 from a 200 investment so I'd prob withdraw right away rather than stake €1k. I'd guess you can't access that either.

                                                            Comment


                                                              #31
                                                              Was putting this in GAA betting but may aswell put it here...could be a good one to jump on. I have a treble on for the Football club c/ships..Crossmaglen in Ulster, Crokes in Munster and St Brigids in Leinster. 6/1 on PP. Brigids are the longest shot, they'll prob meet Portlaoise in semis. Whoever wins that will win it out. Portlaoise are a very strong club side, but Brigids look very focused this year..the addition of John O'Loughlin (who will know Portlaoise inside out aswell) has been huge, they also seem to have a decent panel with some subs making a good impact in the final last sunday. Can't see anyone beating Crokes in Munster, Cross look good in Ulster even though there won't be much between themselves and Ballinderry.

                                                              Just my 2 cents.
                                                              "Ne jamais perdre sa passsionne...ou s'en, éloigner vite!!!!..EC

                                                              Comment


                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by The Hurricane View Post
                                                                I get it, Keane set up a 2nd account so he can pass the blame when this goes south. Clever
                                                                Originally posted by The Hurricane View Post
                                                                And btw, punting international friendlies is a fast track to bustoville
                                                                Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                Yeah but trytime insists that this is a solid bet.



                                                                "Remember the time he ate my goldfish? And you lied and said I never had goldfish. Then why did I have the bowl, Bart? Why did I have the bowl?"

                                                                Comment


                                                                  #33
                                                                  He's sort of fucking me over by not showing up in fairness

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                    Cool, I'll take a look at those other two when I'm checking on the four I named above. Is that table of yours taken from a website or is it something you've been compiling yourself?
                                                                    I thought i'd linked the site. I got it from here



                                                                    This one is handy to look at aswel

                                                                    Premier League league table, results, statistics, current form, ladder and standings. Display English Premier League table and statistics.

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      #35
                                                                      Thanks for that Tony.

                                                                      Just looking to put together a list of factors to consider when looking at betting GAA in the wintertime, a few things I've come up with:

                                                                      SPOILER
                                                                      The importance of marquee forwards is reduced due to weather conditions and heavey ground, which suits backs, encourages low scoring affairs and reduces the gap between top forwards and decent forwards significantly. See Dublin County Final where St Brigids beat Plunketts, who only managed four points from play over the hour despite boasting Jason Sherlock and the two Brogans in their forward line. Economic finishing > big name forwards. Number of wides will reveal a lot, as teams who convert most of their chances will have an advantage in tight games in wintertime (Summerhill hit lots of wides in the replayed Meath CF).

                                                                      The importance of physical strength and fitness is amplified, again due to heavy ground and bad weather. Teams which have been shown to finish strongly (UCC in Cork final, Brigids in Dublin, Summerhill in Meath) should be noted. Teams that have had to play replays should have this noted as this will take a toll physically.

                                                                      Teams with a history of winning their county championship are less likely to overly celebrate after doing so again and may show more focus on winning their province (Crossmaglen) than teams coming off a rare win (Brigids, Summerhill).


                                                                      Thoughts/additions?

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        #36
                                                                        Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                        Thanks for that Tony.

                                                                        Just looking to put together a list of factors to consider when looking at betting GAA in the wintertime, a few things I've come up with:

                                                                        SPOILER
                                                                        The importance of marquee forwards is reduced due to weather conditions and heavey ground, which suits backs, encourages low scoring affairs and reduces the gap between top forwards and decent forwards significantly. See Dublin County Final where St Brigids beat Plunketts, who only managed four points from play over the hour despite boasting Jason Sherlock and the two Brogans in their forward line. Economic finishing > big name forwards. Number of wides will reveal a lot, as teams who convert most of their chances will have an advantage in tight games in wintertime (Summerhill hit lots of wides in the replayed Meath CF).

                                                                        The importance of physical strength and fitness is amplified, again due to heavy ground and bad weather. Teams which have been shown to finish strongly (UCC in Cork final, Brigids in Dublin, Summerhill in Meath) should be noted. Teams that have had to play replays should have this noted as this will take a toll physically.

                                                                        Teams with a history of winning their county championship are less likely to overly celebrate after doing so again and may show more focus on winning their province (Crossmaglen) than teams coming off a rare win (Brigids, Summerhill).


                                                                        Thoughts/additions?
                                                                        Winter gaa is a tough one i see how moyle rovers lost the tipp county to a north tipp combo and rovers were hefty favourites.

                                                                        Even drom/inch were a stupid price against ballygunner. Droms win would have been celebrated as that was there aim not munster. Ballygunner only had to overcome a shit tallow team in their county final. Winning the county would not have been as big a deal to them either.

                                                                        Theres basicallyba lot more variables involved in winter gaa.
                                                                        Pm for rakeback deals

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          #37
                                                                          Ok so this is really not Keane ;p we'll make up a third account to blame all of our losses

                                                                          On initial thoughts for the rugby this weekend: one fixture has caught my eye. Quins V Connaught.
                                                                          Spread -17 @10/11 on PP Initially im thinking Quins to cover on this due to their 8 from 8 run in the Aviva. That coupled with the return of Danny Care for the game will definitely help, and even though Connaught have been relatively good this season in Pro12. I just think that Quins are a different class and play well at home and in Europe Competitions.

                                                                          In fairness Connaught have rested a lot of players and im sure will be up for this game as its their first in HCup. So it will come down to heart vs talent. Any thoughts appreciated.

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            #38
                                                                            Quins should walk the HC

                                                                            Connacht (no aught!) are also missing an absolute host of players, and guys like Johnny O'Connor are more than requisites for Connacht to do well. The injury list is fairly horrific for them, considering that they're not exactly well covered in that regard...

                                                                            Comment


                                                                              #39
                                                                              Bet #2 & #3 - Miscellaneous Soccer Bets

                                                                              Made two soccer bets last night that I don't want to discuss

                                                                              Total Stake: 6.4 units
                                                                              Net Result: +3 units

                                                                              Initial Bank: 313 units
                                                                              Current Bank: 316 units
                                                                              At Risk: 0 units
                                                                              Profit/Loss: 3 units
                                                                              Last edited by Keane; 23-11-11, 22:37.

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                #40
                                                                                Bet #4 - Euro 2012 Qualifier Arbitrage Bet

                                                                                Noticed this morning that Ladbrokes had the over 55 points card index priced up out of whack with everywhere else on the Bosnia – Portugal match on Friday, which allowed a nice bit of Arbitrage when coupled with the Under 35 and Between 35 & 55 markets on Victor Chandler.

                                                                                At the time I backed them the prices were:

                                                                                Case 1: Over 55 points - 11/4 (Ladbrokes)
                                                                                Case 2: Between 35 & 55 - 15/8 (VC)
                                                                                Case 3: Under 35 points - 23/10 (VC)

                                                                                Ended up punting according to this:



                                                                                Weird amounts I know, but the idea was to bet as little as possible (life-busto ) while maximising profit and getting the full €50 free bet bonus from Ladbrokes.

                                                                                The outcomes should be as follows:

                                                                                Case 1 Profit: €16.81
                                                                                Case 2 Profit: €14.75
                                                                                Case 3 Profit: €14.74

                                                                                Nice profit considering our unit size is €2, assuming I haven't made a mess of it.

                                                                                Total Stake: 85 units
                                                                                Net Result: +7 units min, +8 units max (will add to total when bet is settled)

                                                                                Initial Bank: 313 units
                                                                                Current Bank: 229.5units
                                                                                At Risk: 85.5 units (Arb)
                                                                                Profit/Loss: 2 units
                                                                                Last edited by Keane; 23-11-11, 22:40.

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  #41
                                                                                  Originally posted by trytime View Post
                                                                                  Ok so this is really not Keane ;p we'll make up a third account to blame all of our losses

                                                                                  On initial thoughts for the rugby this weekend: one fixture has caught my eye. Quins V Connaught.
                                                                                  Spread -17 @10/11 on PP Initially im thinking Quins to cover on this due to their 8 from 8 run in the Aviva. That coupled with the return of Danny Care for the game will definitely help, and even though Connaught have been relatively good this season in Pro12. I just think that Quins are a different class and play well at home and in Europe Competitions.

                                                                                  In fairness Connaught have rested a lot of players and im sure will be up for this game as its their first in HCup. So it will come down to heart vs talent. Any thoughts appreciated.
                                                                                  My bet of the weekend is quins minus 15 to win at both Stan james and Ladbrokes.
                                                                                  Quins are flying and have Nick Evans at 10 super player.
                                                                                  Good back row with Easter and Rob Shaw.
                                                                                  An exciting young team on a high against a struggling connacht team
                                                                                  can see Quins getting the bonus easy enough.

                                                                                  Connacht dont look liek scoring trys unless they maul all day but with a very poor bench
                                                                                  could really be a tough day at the office.

                                                                                  Quins beat Munster 20 12 in the challenge cup last year in Limerick and the team is only getting better.

                                                                                  Promsied some light rain in LONDON on friday but shoudlnt make a difference last 20 quins to run away with it.

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                                                                                    #42
                                                                                    agree with Mick's analysis there, problem is that as we saw at the WC, the + side of the first games are usually quite decent bets. In this case it is different as both teams have had games under their belts at similar levels to the game in question, but be aware that Connacht will have been looking at this game for the last 4 months as one to catch people unawares with.

                                                                                    However, Quins really just need to play at 70/80% of what they can to beat that handicap. Connacht will spend all game trying to prevent Quins getting up to any sort of pace, and try to keep them from cutting loose. Could be a great game for some in play betting tbh if you wanted to give that a shot (I see you have a 365 account - serious amount of in play markets offered). In the end Quins should be able to pull away in the last 15mins, especially with the ambition of taking a bonus point win from the game.

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                                                                                      #43
                                                                                      Munster are coming to teh end of an era too i think and willf ail to qualify from there group.

                                                                                      Castres
                                                                                      Llanelli Scarlets
                                                                                      Northampton
                                                                                      Munster

                                                                                      tough group and all capable of taking points off each other.
                                                                                      Northampton will feel robbed last year after leading 22 -6 at half time and capitulating.

                                                                                      However there a young team and as Munster and Leinster have shown sometimes you need to lose a final to get the hunger to go and win one.

                                                                                      They have a formidable front row and in Lawes in teh second row one of the best in europe supreme athlete if only eh could cut out the nasty cynical shit id like him.
                                                                                      Solid young backrow with Tom Wood a bit out of form but he was class last year.

                                                                                      Half backs are not great but will get so much ball of there dominant pack it wont matter
                                                                                      and obv have High flying Chris Ashton and Ben Foden at full back who is an excellent attacker and runner.

                                                                                      I like them to win the group at 6/4
                                                                                      and also to cover the handicap at Thomond -5points.
                                                                                      Small bet at 11/1 for the outright win too.

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                                                                                        #44
                                                                                        ^^ most important game in Munster's whole group is their last game, away in Northampton in January. If Northampton scalp them this weekend, (which at 7/4 seems a very good bet to me), then they'll be in big trouble imo.

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                                                                                          #45
                                                                                          Originally posted by Emmet View Post
                                                                                          ^^ most important game in Munster's whole group is their last game, away in Northampton in January. If Northampton scalp them this weekend, (which at 7/4 seems a very good bet to me), then they'll be in big trouble imo.
                                                                                          Watched Northampton at the weekend both props scoring even if one was a forward pass and they looked very strong as always.
                                                                                          Munster backline is in bits no centers and the days off the munster pack dominating are gone if Botha goes off early there fucked.

                                                                                          Id never write Munster off buy there creaking badly last couple of years despite Munster fans delusion.

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                                                                                            #46
                                                                                            I think Alan liked the look of Biarritz to win their group as well @ ~2/1 - can't remember much of his rationale though.

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                                                                                              #47
                                                                                              Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                                              I think Alan liked the look of Biarritz to win their group as well @ ~2/1 - can't remember much of his rationale though.
                                                                                              Well they have an excellent european pedigree but are really floudering thsi year with one win in France.
                                                                                              They have there world cup players back Harinordoquay captain fantastic and Yachvilli at 9.
                                                                                              With Saracens and Ospreys and an improving Treviso side hard toos ee the value in 2/1
                                                                                              there main goal will be top 14 in France

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                                                                                                #48
                                                                                                Originally posted by SICKPUPPY View Post
                                                                                                Watched Northampton at the weekend both props scoring even if one was a forward pass and they looked very strong as always.
                                                                                                Munster backline is in bits no centers and the days off the munster pack dominating are gone if Botha goes off early there fucked.

                                                                                                Id never write Munster off buy there creaking badly last couple of years despite Munster fans delusion.
                                                                                                not too sure about writeing off the back line as yet,but 100% agree on botha,have this game down as a potential in game or betting in running,think botha turns up/not turn up could be that important to the outcome of the game
                                                                                                Mattie McGrath wanna-be

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                                                                                                  #49
                                                                                                  Originally posted by amberleaf View Post
                                                                                                  not too sure about writeing off the back line as yet,
                                                                                                  Originally posted by Spectator at Munster Training
                                                                                                  9. Murray
                                                                                                  10. ROG
                                                                                                  11. Hurley
                                                                                                  12. Mafi
                                                                                                  13. Barnes
                                                                                                  14. Dougie
                                                                                                  15. Murphy
                                                                                                  Hurley will be solid if unimpressive on the wing, Mafi will spend most of the game trying to get a yellow card, Barnes still not really tested at this level, so unsure. Howlett will be phenomenal if he gets the ball, which in the last 3 games he hasn't. Murphy was surprise package against Leinster though, looked really bright and creative.

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                                                                                                    #50
                                                                                                    I wouldn't go betting against Munster this weekend, although Northampton for the group does look right. Clermont -2 would also tempt me along with the Quins one that you ahve already.

                                                                                                    So glad to have the Heineken Cup back rather than watching Wolves/Wigan or Spurs/Fulham and that lot!!!

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                                                                                                      #51
                                                                                                      Jesus out of whack indeed, good spot. That 11/4 is a palpable error and may even be voided as its obviously a mistake. Like Hills go 23/20 on the same bet, PP are 11/10 over 60 points. I wouldnt broadcast that sort of thing in future as it lessons your chances of getting away with it the more people getting on.
                                                                                                      Profit before people.

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                                                                                                        #52
                                                                                                        Originally posted by The Situation View Post
                                                                                                        Jesus out of whack indeed, good spot. That 11/4 is a palpable error and may even be voided as its obviously a mistake. Like Hills go 23/20 on the same bet, PP are 11/10 over 60 points. I wouldnt broadcast that sort of thing in future as it lessons your chances of getting away with it the more people getting on.
                                                                                                        You reckon there's a good chance of it being voided or is that fairly unusual?

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                                                                                                          #53
                                                                                                          Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                                                          You reckon there's a good chance of it being voided or is that fairly unusual?
                                                                                                          Yeah very possible. There over 65 points market is way out as well. Its not on oddschecker so lessons the chances of lots people seeing it. Going to get on and hope for the best
                                                                                                          Profit before people.

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                                                                                                            #54
                                                                                                            That would suck.

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                                                                                                              #55
                                                                                                              Lol they wouldn't lay and market now seems to have disappeared
                                                                                                              Profit before people.

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                                                                                                                #56
                                                                                                                Lame. Come on Unders!

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                                                                                                                  #57
                                                                                                                  The market is still there for me under "Bookings 1" fwiw.

                                                                                                                  Do they email you or something if they void the bet or will they say nothing till after the game?

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                                                                                                                    #58
                                                                                                                    re: Connacht game - Squad released for the match

                                                                                                                    Forwards:

                                                                                                                    Brett Wilkinson, Ronan Loughney, Rodney Ah You, Dylan Rogers, Adrian Flavin, Ethienne Reynecke, Dave Gannon, Michael Swift, Mike McCarthy, TJ Anderson, Eoghan Grace, John Muldoon, Ray Ofisa, George Naoupu

                                                                                                                    Backs:

                                                                                                                    Frank Murphy, Paul O’Donohoe, Niall O’Connor, Miah Nikora, Henry Fa’afili, Eoin Griffin, Dave McSharry, Tiernan O’Halloran, Fetu’u Vainikolo. Brian Tuohy, Matthew Jarvis, Gavin Duffy

                                                                                                                    bold is the XV I'd expect to start

                                                                                                                    Actual team
                                                                                                                    Originally posted by Team News as of 10/11/2011
                                                                                                                    15. Gavin Duffy (c)
                                                                                                                    14. Brian Tuohy
                                                                                                                    13. Eoin Griffin
                                                                                                                    12. Dave McSharry
                                                                                                                    11. Tiernan O'Halloran
                                                                                                                    10. Miah Nikora
                                                                                                                    9. Paul O'Donohoe
                                                                                                                    1. Brett Wilkinson
                                                                                                                    2. Adrian Flavin
                                                                                                                    3. Rodney Ah You
                                                                                                                    4. Michael Swift
                                                                                                                    5. Mike McCarthy
                                                                                                                    6. John Muldoon
                                                                                                                    7. Ray Ofisa
                                                                                                                    8. George Naoupu

                                                                                                                    Replacements:

                                                                                                                    16. Ethienne Reynecke
                                                                                                                    17. Ronan Loughney
                                                                                                                    18. Dylan Rogers
                                                                                                                    19. Dave Gannon
                                                                                                                    20. TJ Anderson
                                                                                                                    21. Frank Murphy
                                                                                                                    22. Niall O'Connor
                                                                                                                    23. Henry Fa'afili
                                                                                                                    Paul O'Donohue getting the nod over Murphy and Tuohy on the wing the only two wrong. Still a team due a whipping unfortunately.
                                                                                                                    Last edited by Emmet; 10-11-11, 10:27.

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                                                                                                                      #59
                                                                                                                      Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                                                                      The market is still there for me under "Bookings 1" fwiw.

                                                                                                                      Do they email you or something if they void the bet or will they say nothing till after the game?
                                                                                                                      really?? how odd, all the card markets for all 4 qualifiers seem to be down. Linky to what you're seeing?
                                                                                                                      Profit before people.

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                                                                                                                        #60
                                                                                                                        It's gone now alright - they've taken down all the corners and cards markets.

                                                                                                                        Any idea about how/when they notify you about voids?

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