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A beginners guide to making money on horse racing

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    A beginners guide to making money on horse racing

    I know alot of IPB'ers are fond of the nags and before I found online poker, I was reasonably successful posting 6 modest winning years out of 7 (the last year being my first losing year as that was the year I started to concentrate more on poker). I also had a fear of raising my stakes as everytime I started to put more that €50 on a bet I would encounter a losing run:-(

    I decided to write a short blog post on how I used to select horses to bet on but I ended up writing over 3000 words on the subject. Anyways I don't bet anymore after my last attempt to pardon the pun, get back in saddle (No Pace, No Race thread here). I just dont have the time or energy to play poker and bet on horses and work on other business interests as well.

    However the blog posts might open up some peoples eyes here to the amount of work it takes to analyse a horse race correctly. I used to spend 30- 40 hours a week during/after work doing research up until 4 years ago and thankfully found poker and jacked in the horse racing as poker was more profitable with instant gratification through 6 max cash games.

    here's the link
    Poker Player Transition to Sports Betting – Wheres the +EV in Horse Racing Systems?

    #2
    I do not agree with your advice to bet in handicaps. The official handicapper gives horses of differing ability different weights with the view to equalising the chances of all horses in the race. I almost never bet on handicaps.

    There was no discussion of prices versus chances. My preference is to bet on horses at big odds. Big priced winners equal big returns.

    Some of the races I can remember are listed here at post #68. http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showt...6#post68902066
    I could give a reason why I picked each of these (memorable) winners (and losers). Listing my losers over the years would take pages. Big priced winners pay for losers. The reasons I picked them would not be found easily in the racing newspapers / websites.

    Comment


      #3
      I do not agree with your advice to bet in handicaps. The official handicapper gives horses of differing ability different weights with the view to equalising the chances of all horses in the race. I almost never bet on handicaps.
      So are you saying that the official handicapper gets it right all the time?? If he did then all the horses would finish in a dead heat. Can I ask what races you like to specialise on?

      I didn't go into value as this is a post for poker players who understand EV so therefore will have good idea if a bet is good value or not. If only one horse in the race ends up qualifying all the essential criteria and has a lot of other positive factors as mentioned in the post, but he ends up being the favorite at 6/4, will then I would not consider this bet value unless I had valid reasons why everyone of the other horses could be discounted, however in a handicap race its very rare that this will happen.

      Also one of the resources I mentioned ukhorseracing.co.uk offer their value price as calculated by their mathematical algorithm compared to the forecast SP and I found this very useful. I know they have a system over there which blindly backs the top 3 rated if they are value ..It throws out thousands of bets in a year, but has been profitable over the past 4 years. Thats why they developed a bot to place all those bets. Anyway thats away from the point.

      My preference is to bet on horses at big odds. Big priced winners equal big returns.
      Good for you. Each to their own. How do you pick the big winners, what method do you use? I would find that if all of the horses in the top 6 in the betting failed anyone of the 5 essential criteria then by delving a lot deeper into the larger priced horses you could sometimes spot a pattern that could mean it is capable of a big run in that relatively weak race, and if the odds were big enough to offer value then it would make sense to back those horses.

      So to sum up, I only used to bet when i felt there was value . Sometimes this means that a horse backed at 3/1 is good value . .Its all relative to the strength of the race

      Comment


        #4
        I think it's a very good basic guide. Has the fundamentals in there that would help any beginner improve their selection process. Class of the race is probably the most overlooked thing by people starting out. They see a load of 1's beside a horses name and get on not knowing it could be running in a higher standard race and often on a higher mark and possibly carrying a big penalty...
        Profit before people.

        Comment


          #5
          Curses, can't read this in work - I'll give it a spin later.

          Thanks for sharing...

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by RBBlogger View Post
            How do you pick the big winners, what method do you use?
            I bet flat Group races almost exclusively.

            Explanations of some of my choices:

            03/06/92: Epsom: Dr Devious; 12/1; 10/1 win and place; profit £3,500
            He was 7th in his previous race, the Kentucky Derby. I like a big loss (7th), especially if is explainable. In this case the loss was on dirt.
            Nick Mordin in the Sporting Life Weekender said that using the dosage index only four horses in the Derby had the stamina to win. They finished 1st; 2nd; 4th; 11th.

            16/06/92: Ascot: Brief Truce £20 win 25/1. Profit £500
            3rd in the Irish 2000 Guineas on yielding. Here it was good/firm. Two hotshots in the race, Arazi and Rodrigo de Triano, watching each other, forgot to get going.

            16/09/95: The Curragh: Irish St Leger (good).
            Strategic Choice wins at 6/1 after a very nice 9th in his previous race in Germany on soft.

            05/10/97: Longchamp: Borgia £715 at 16/1. Finished 3rd. Loss.
            High class German filly suited by soft. The ground firmed up in the week after I placed the bet for the Arc. She was good enough to be 2nd in the Breeders Cup Turf next race.

            05/06/98: Epsom: Shahtoush £40 at 25/1: Profit £1.000
            £50 win double Shahtoush 20/1 (1st); City Honours 11/1 (2nd) failed…. Pain.
            Shahtoush was 2nd in the English 1000 Guineas to Cape Verdi who was switched to the Derby, so Shahtoush's opposition was gone. In her race before the English Oaks she was 10th of 13 (lovely: it looks bad) in the Irish 1000 Guineas on good/firm but was beaten only 4 1/4 lengths. Epsom was slow side of good, Michael Kinane had come over for only two rides, and they both won, and if you read the Racing Post you would see he was back in Leopardstown for evening rides. So he came to Epsom for a reason. 25/1 in an eight runner Oaks was too good.

            28/06/98: Curragh: £5 win Heemanela pays £459. Nice odds.
            On 5th June Heemanela won a 17 runner 0-80 handicap over one mile at The Curragh (eased close home !!!) on good at 20/1. On his next start at Tipperary he was 5th beaten 2 1/4 lengths on Yld/Soft over 9f. Now he was back in a 25 runner 0-80 handicap over one mile at The Curragh but on soft/heavy at 20/1 (but 91/1 on the Tote.) I was amazed people read so much into a 2 1/4 length defeat over further.

            09/08/98: Leopardstown: consecutive 16/1 winners Lavery; March Star c.£20 on each.
            I spent 10 hours on the previous day, Saturday, analysing the pedigrees of 90 runners for Leopardstown on the Sunday. My car insurance had gone up by £1k so I was broke. If I had money I would have cleaned up on those two winners. I was applying something I had read in a pedigree book to my picks at Epsom two months earlier and here.

            22/05/99: The Curragh: £20 4 horse accum. 4/9f win; 14/1 win; 12/1 win; 9/4f 4th. Fail to win £19,700. Also had 6 of 14 live tickets on last Jackpot race £20k – loss. Won £1,500 on single bets.
            I picked the 2000 Guineas winner Saffron Walden 12/1 on pedigree + form + jockey (O Peslier). Eastern Purple (L Dettori was the 14/1 winner.)

            08/06/02: Epsom: £100 double Kazzia 4/1 Oaks; High Chaparral (Derby) 9/4: Profit €1,600; Derby trifecta 1,2,3 £2 wins £494.
            I actually spent £24 on the trifecta covering combinations. I saw High Chaparral winning the Derrinstown at Leopardstown by 1 length giving 7 pounds away ("comfortably"). He had won the Ballysax by 7 lengths also giving away 7 pounds. So people thought that the other horses were catching up to him: won by 7 lengths; now by 1 length. Wrong! He won the second race 2.4 seconds faster (both 10f) against better horses. What I noticed was his pacemaker Nostradamus set a fast pace. Nostradamus back in the unsaddling could barely stand, and was puffing like a steam engine for five minutes. As is the custom the winner High Chaparral came into the unsaddling last. But he was barely breathing. He was totally at ease. He looked like he hadn't had a race. I was so confident of him winning at Epsom that I didn't have a win bet on him. I did the Oaks/Derby double and the trifects with him as the win banker. The soft ground was perfect for him.

            07/09/02: Leopardstown: €30 treble 5/2; 2/1; 5/2 pays €1,100.
            Just picked the quality horses in the group races, avoiding the lottery of handicaps. Lucky Grandera got up on the line to win the Irish Champion to seal the win.

            17/06/03: Ascot: €20 wins, €10 double: Choisir 25/1; Zafeen 10/1. Profit €3,450
            Choisir was a champion sprinter in Australia. I saw video of him winning at Flemington running on his own on one side of the track, the field on the other side. That was a sign of class. The Royal Ascot crowd thought he was a joke entry. They underestimated him.
            Zafeen was 14th of 16 in the Irish 2000 Guineas on soft in his previous start. Very nice. Now he was back on good/firm where he has a two wins/one second record.

            03/06/06: Epsom: Sir Percy 16/1+ Profit €7,000+ Wins in a four way photo.
            This highest rated 2-y-o (4 wins from 4 including the Dewhurst) was 16/1 in March. The Aidan O'Brien pony sized / over-hyped Horatio Nelson was all the rage.


            You will see that the betting public are dismissive if a quality horse has a bad race, especially the previous race. If you were a trainer aiming for a big prize would you be bothered by losing a prep race of no significance?
            I have rabbited on a bit, but you get an idea of the situations I look for.

            Comment


              #7
              I agree your selections are solid. As stated in the blog post 'Going against the crowd' is how you attain value and is the only way to make decent profits at horse racing. I also mentioned a website www.ukhorseracing whose ratings are a very good indicator of flat group racing and also graded national hunt. I am in no way affiliated with the site but Often you will see a horse priced 20/1 or more which is in the top 2 of the ratings so you delve into it a bit and you realise that the horse has so much natural class that if you can explain a few bad races it has run, then the horse starts to look very promising indeed.

              All this talk has made me want to get back betting again!

              Comment


                #8
                Good article. Well written too.

                But for beginners, 16 runner handicaps/thread.
                Foldaramus et foldarabimus

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by RBBlogger View Post
                  I know alot of IPB'ers are fond of the nags and before I found online poker, I was reasonably successful posting 6 modest winning years out of 7 (the last year being my first losing year as that was the year I started to concentrate more on poker). I also had a fear of raising my stakes as everytime I started to put more that €50 on a bet I would encounter a losing run:-(

                  I decided to write a short blog post on how I used to select horses to bet on but I ended up writing over 3000 words on the subject. Anyways I don't bet anymore after my last attempt to pardon the pun, get back in saddle (No Pace, No Race thread here). I just dont have the time or energy to play poker and bet on horses and work on other business interests as well.

                  However the blog posts might open up some peoples eyes here to the amount of work it takes to analyse a horse race correctly. I used to spend 30- 40 hours a week during/after work doing research up until 4 years ago and thankfully found poker and jacked in the horse racing as poker was more profitable with instant gratification through 6 max cash games.

                  here's the link
                  Poker Player Transition to Sports Betting – Wheres the +EV in Horse Racing Systems?
                  Hi Blogger,
                  The only problem with your strat is that handicaps are the biggest bookie benefit around. The over round of a handicap compared to a conditions or maiden race most of the time is much more favourable to the bookie then the punter.

                  (explaination of 'over round' anyone not familiar) http://www.probabilitytheory.info/co...nd-or-dutching
                  D15 CASINO, Mulhuddart Village (opp Blanchardstown shopping centre)

                  Comment

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