GAA Betting Thread

[Donk Magnet]

have to say liking that draw for q/f avoid kerry/cork aswell if we make semis

[tipp86]

As a Tipp lad who frequents the terrace at games will the Dubs have the run of hill 16 for the hurling?

[BallymoreChris]

As a Tipp lad who frequents the terrace at games will the Dubs have the run of hill 16 for the hurling?

the clubs will get the tickets but normally the non Dublin clubs swap with Dublin clubs.

[amberleaf]

wtf? killkenny 6/4 to win the a.l.,madness,they will be at least evens after they kick forty colours of shite out of waterford!,can always layoff tipp on the day,LADIE AND GENTS ITS FREEROLL TIME,,,,,GET ON

[tipp86]

the clubs will get the tickets but normally the non Dublin clubs swap with Dublin clubs.

I really wonder will Dublin bring a crowd.

[bustamoves]

wtf? killkenny 6/4 to win the a.l.,madness,they will be at least evens after they kick forty colours of shite out of waterford!,can always layoff tipp on the day,LADIE AND GENTS ITS FREEROLL TIME,,,,,GET ON

Not sure about ur logic there boss? What makes u think they will be evens should they beat waterford??

[BallymoreChris]

I really wonder will Dublin bring a crowd.

The Dubs bring a crowd to everything. I'd be surprised if this does not sell out.

[amberleaf]

Not sure about ur logic there boss? What makes u think they will be evens should they beat waterford??

just think galway were awful yesterday,when waterford play killkenny i think it will be a huge step up in class for them,and cant see them getting to with in 6 pts at the end,my way of thinking is if you back them now @ 6/4,you can lay off on the day,hopefully be able to show a profit no matter what happens.also the dubs will face a huge step up in class v tipp,cant see them getting the better of tipp,but if they do,killkenny will be major odds on for the final

[theduster]

Donegal seem overpriced @ 16/1 for the AI...!!

They have a very good chance of beating Kildare and are avoiding a possible meeting with Cork/Kerry untill the AI final should they get there...

They definetly look worth a punt with e/w still available or either laying off if they make the final...

[BallymoreChris]

Donegal seem overpriced @ 16/1 for the AI...!!

They have a very good chance of beating Kildare and are avoiding a possible meeting with Cork/Kerry untill the AI final should they get there...

They definetly look worth a punt with e/w still available or either laying off if they make the final...

Kildare Donegal Dublin all on the same side and I would not rule any of them out.
16/1 on Donegal looks like the value with a view to laying in the final.
You can't eat value though....I think Kildare will beat them and if not I would fancy Dublin to beat them in the semi.

[tipp86]

Not sure about ur logic there boss? What makes u think they will be evens should they beat waterford??

I honestly think KK will eat up Wford. I fancied Wford to put up a good show yesterday but still expected a defeat. Id say the dubs will hold tipp for about 45 minutes but would expect 5-7 points in the end.

[BigDeal]

Donegal seem overpriced @ 16/1 for the AI...!!

They have a very good chance of beating Kildare and are avoiding a possible meeting with Cork/Kerry untill the AI final should they get there...

They definetly look worth a punt with e/w still available or either laying off if they make the final...

They won't win the AI but 16/1 looks decent for laying off later .
Very interested to see odds on Kildare game, if Donegal are 6/4 or better I think I'll get on.
Dublin v Tyrone will be another interesting one, wouldn't rule out a Donegal/Tyrone semi final.

[Raheny Red]

Roscommon @ 6/1 with Ladbrokes worth a go?

[Keane]

Roscommon @ 6/1 with Ladbrokes worth a go?

Will it be on betfair to trade?

It'll probably be a reasonably close game if the weather's alright since Ros has a decent midfield and two excellent players in their full-forward line.

EDIT: They won't win though...

[Percy007]

Was at the game in Omagh last Saturday and one thing I noticed in the Tyrone team was how important every score was to them even when they were cruising, they looked like they had another couple of gears in them in that 2nd half tbh and in Joe McMahon and Peter Harte they have 2 players that would arguably get in any team in Ireland at the minute.

[careca]

Roscommon @ 6/1 with Ladbrokes worth a go?

Will it be on betfair to trade?

It'll probably be a reasonably close game if the weather's alright since Ros has a decent midfield and two excellent players in their full-forward line.

EDIT: They won't win though...

Kerry played them in a 'friendly' last weekend and absolutely murdered them. I don't think they will be able to handle the intensity of Tyrone. Added to that i though Tyrone looked very good against Armagh, possibly the best they have been in a few seasons. I will be looking at the HC here fwiw.

[Keane]

Yeah I haven't seen a whole lot of Tyrone this year, and hadn't heard about Ros playing Kerry in a challenge either...

[careca]

Yeah I haven't seen a whole lot of Tyrone this year, and hadn't heard about Ros playing Kerry in a challenge either...

Very disappointed with the draw. I know we got a relatively easy one (on paper) but its all a bit boring. If we do win then its prob Cork again. Would much preferred to have a crack at Kildare or even Tyrone/Ross. I'll go in on Sunday but I'm not exactly over excited about it.

Similar to yourself I hadn't seen much of Tyrone this year and it looked like a good time to play them. All that changed on Sat though, they looked back to their best with a few new players shining (full forward looked v smart). Wouldn't surprise me to see them giving Dublin a run for their money (presuming they get through this weekend).

[islander32]

Dont like Roscommon at all for this 1... they were the worst team to win a connaught title in a lot of years last year and they havn't really improved this year.
They were beaten by a physically small Mayo team in the connaught final.
Mayo have never beaten Cork in championship football. Mayo always tend to perform above expectation in quarterfinals and then shit themselves on final day. Put the lump on Cork to beat Mayo. Mayo's lighter players will be bossed all over the field by Cork.
I do like Donegal for a long shot to reach the final but I'm not convinced they will handle Kildare's style of play. And I think they are going to be exposed when they get to the wider spaces of Croker. Prolly worth a small punt though.

[ciarraithuaidh]

This might draw some ire, and is a long way from a certainty, but I have a sizeable lump put on Kerry and Tyrone to be All Ireland football finalists this year...was 8/1 on william hill i took. Long way to go but it was great value I thought given the 2 teams involved.

[Donk Magnet]

This might draw some ire, and is a long way from a certainty, but I have a sizeable lump put on Kerry and Tyrone to be All Ireland football finalists this year...was 8/1 on william hill i took. Long way to go but it was great value I thought given the 2 teams involved.

was looking at these aswell kerry dublin 11/4 kerry kildare 6/1 cant see past kerry on that side but ros aside other side is very open

[ciarraithuaidh]

was looking at these aswell kerry dublin 11/4 kerry kildare 6/1 cant see past kerry on that side but ros aside other side is very open

Yeah, Kerry/Tyrone or Kerry/Dublin at 10/3 were the only 2 I considered, even if Kildare could be a surprise package. I just think Tyrone have slipped into the latter stages quietly and have more footballing nous than Dublin,Kildare or anyone apart from Kerry really. I think Harte has infused some young blood this year which he needed to do..its a punt, but at 8/1 I think its a great bet.

[Keane]

This might draw some ire, and is a long way from a certainty, but I have a sizeable lump put on Kerry and Tyrone to be All Ireland football finalists this year...was 8/1 on william hill i took. Long way to go but it was great value I thought given the 2 teams involved.

8/1 seems like a decent price alright.

Would translate to something like Kerry 6/4, Tyrone 11/2 if I've done my maths right?

[Donk Magnet]

8/1 is agreat price hope ur wrong though my heart wont let me bet against kildare.

[Jibzzzz]

Easy money Double

Tipp u18 @2/5
Cork @ 2/9

100 double pays 170
I know very very short odds but its an easy 70 from 100 euro!
Know some1 involved in the minors and tipp will not lose and cork speaks for itslef really

[tipp86]

Tipp u18 @2/5
Cork @ 2/9

100 double pays 170
I know very very short odds but its an easy 70 from 100 euro!
Know some1 involved in the minors and tipp will not lose and cork speaks for itslef really

There good and im friends with the lad who trained them as u17s hes fancied them all year. Im pretty sure meath beat them a month or so ago in a challenge so im not sure im mad about the odds for the game.

[Jibzzzz]

Shoulda mailed you see what you thought but talked to a couple of lads they reckon tipp are certs. Ah well i fancy the punt anyway

[Chanaldo9]

great bet johnob you are very good at finding gaa bets !

[Jibzzzz]

great bet johnob you are very good at finding gaa bets !

hahahah brilliant

[Donk Magnet]

my bet for the weekend
kildare +1
tyrone -4
cork -3
kerry -8
pays little under 6/1 any thoughts guys??

[dannydiamond]

my bet for the weekend
kildare +1
tyrone -4
cork -3
kerry -8
pays little under 6/1 any thoughts guys??

If this is an accum and you want to gamble for a big return which I'm presuming, I'd take the Kerry winning margin down and bump up the Cork score.

[GingerMilla]

This might draw some ire, and is a long way from a certainty, but I have a sizeable lump put on Kerry and Tyrone to be All Ireland football finalists this year...was 8/1 on william hill i took. Long way to go but it was great value I thought given the 2 teams involved.

I wouldn't have 8/1 a Kerry/Tyrone final as fair odds at all although the Irish firms Boyles and PP are going 15/2 and 11/2 respectively on this likelihood.

Kerry are no better than a straightforward even money shot imo to reach the final, i.e 1/12to beat Limerick and 10/11 to beat Cork. So for that 8/1 to represent fair odds you'd have to have Tyrone as a 7/2 shot to come through their three games, i.e 1/1 and 7/2 double is an 8/1 return.

I can't have Tyrone @ 7/2 to beat Roscommon this weekend, Dublin next weekend and then the winners of Kildare/Donegal in the semi-final. They should beat Roscommon but I don't see that as a walk in the park, it'll be their third game in four weeks and I think odds of 2/9 are probably reflective of their chances. The following weekend they play a fresh hungry Dublin team at Croke park who have the burden of expectations somewhat lessened after the Leinster final. I have Tyrone as a 6/4 dog to come through this q/f and thats not a generous reflection of their chances imo. Finally they would have to beat the winners of Kildare/Donegal and they couldn't be any better than an even money shot here.

2/9, 6/4 and 1/1 is 5/1 indicative odds for Tyrone to reach the final and coupled with 1/1 Kerry to come through their half renders the odds of these two counties reaching the final as 11/1 approx. A little bit away from the 8/1WH or 11/2 PP even. No value there.

[Guest]

my bet for the weekend
kildare +1
tyrone -4
cork -3
kerry -8
pays little under 6/1 any thoughts guys??

Kerry are an excellent team and should beat Limerick well but the problem with large handicaps is if say kerry are winning by 10 pts with 10 mins to go its game over and they know it.
So they take the foot off the gas there mind is on the enxt game and staying uninjured

ive gotten burnt on many rugby games like this too when a team is leading well and take the foot off the gas or get sloppy

[Jibzzzz]

I like that bet donk i might just have to get on it. however i reckon i might bring the kerry handicap down as far as -6 and i would be confident in Kildare so maybe doing them outright or else -1 ???

[ciarraithuaidh]

I wouldn't have 8/1 a Kerry/Tyrone final as fair odds at all although the Irish firms Boyles and PP are going 15/2 and 11/2 respectively on this likelihood.

Kerry are no better than a straightforward even money shot imo to reach the final, i.e 1/12to beat Limerick and 10/11 to beat Cork. So for that 8/1 to represent fair odds you'd have to have Tyrone as a 7/2 shot to come through their three games, i.e 1/1 and 7/2 double is an 8/1 return.

I can't have Tyrone @ 7/2 to beat Roscommon this weekend, Dublin next weekend and then the winners of Kildare/Donegal in the semi-final. They should beat Roscommon but I don't see that as a walk in the park, it'll be their third game in four weeks and I think odds of 2/9 are probably reflective of their chances. The following weekend they play a fresh hungry Dublin team at Croke park who have the burden of expectations somewhat lessened after the Leinster final. I have Tyrone as a 6/4 dog to come through this q/f and thats not a generous reflection of their chances imo. Finally they would have to beat the winners of Kildare/Donegal and they couldn't be any better than an even money shot here.

2/9, 6/4 and 1/1 is 5/1 indicative odds for Tyrone to reach the final and coupled with 1/1 Kerry to come through their half renders the odds of these two counties reaching the final as 11/1 approx. A little bit away from the 8/1WH or 11/2 PP even. No value there.

I have a far more simplistic (and not necessarily right) view of things, I just can't see Cork coping with the injuries enough to get past Kerry, don't think their defence can curtail our forwards enough in Croke park either.
Regardless of a "fresh hungry Dublin team", I stand by my assertion that Tyrone have the best footballers of any team on that side of the draw and last year aside, have an excellent record against Dublin and Kildare,so should be well placed to make the final provided they don't pick up injuries and maintain current form. They have coped well with an extended run of games before to win All Irelands so I wouldn't doubt they can do it. We'll see what way it turns out.

[Bubbleking]

cork -3 this weekend is the bet of the summer

[GingerMilla]

I have a far more simplistic (and not necessarily right) view of things, I just can't see Cork coping with the injuries enough to get past Kerry, don't think their defence can curtail our forwards enough in Croke park either.
Regardless of a "fresh hungry Dublin team", I stand by my assertion that Tyrone have the best footballers of any team on that side of the draw and last year aside, have an excellent record against Dublin and Kildare,so should be well placed to make the final provided they don't pick up injuries and maintain current form. They have coped well with an extended run of games before to win All Irelands so I wouldn't doubt they can do it. We'll see what way it turns out.

Darragh O Se certainly agreed with you in a very good article in the Irish Times yesterday.
He says Tyrone look in the form for it right now and while he wouldn't have thought the same three weeks ago, he rates them higher than Dublin and Kildare, presently.

My main point in the earlier post was that the 8/1odds that you took on the chances of a Kerry/Tyrone final were not representative of that likely outcome. The margins been takes here by the bookies are almost criminal. I have Kerry at 1/1 or thereabouts to come through their half of the draw and Tyrone 9/2-5/1 to emerge victorious in their next three
games, two of them over the next two weekends. The net result is closer to 12/1 than 8/1.
The fact is that if you were to do a series of cumulative bets on those five games on Kerry and Tyrone to qualify each time it adds up to more than 8/1. In any case its a rip off. One firm has this advertised at 11/2. Maybe its only a bit of crack but according to your post you've lumped on and obviously don't understand the math involved.

Personally I favour a Cork/Dublin final. Cork have loads of injuries and few big name stars but they appear to have a very strong squad with great desire and I think they'll be very hard to beat. I also fancy Dublin for a late September outing to Croke Park this year and especially if they can get Michael McCauley back to full fitness as he's a key player. Seven or eight of the squad have been beaten in two semi finals by Kerry and those bad experiences shared can spur them on this year. I think the youngest player in the squad is Rory O'Carroll from Kilmacud Crokes at full back and he's already got a club All-Ireland under his belt. Anyway its all to play for still and they haven't got out of 2nd gear yet.

[Keane]

I really don't understand people having a Cork team who have lost two of their best forwards since being beaten by Kerry, who had two of their best players and one of their likely first choice midfielders missing, as favourites to come through their side of the draw.

Cork's strength in depth is mainly centred around their midfield and half-backs, and even that has been fairly well overstated this year with Nicholas Murphy out, Canty stuggling and Derek Kavanagh retired.

The one thing they've lacked in recent years is dangerous forwards, and they've lost two of their better ones.

The proof of the pudding is that no one really has any idea who Cork should replace Goulding with - they have nobody with any pedigree to come into the side in his place.

Having Cork favourites over Kerry if that semi-final comes up is bizarre, and I'd certainly take any action you were laying.

[premierstone]

Ginger fair play for the analysis and examining the value etc, but one key point and I wasnt going to say anything untill you added that anyone who fancies the 8/1 would be better off backing the 5 seperate results, your logic is wrong here for two reasons :

Firstly your method does not give you the safety of the draw, 5 games fair chance of a draw, especially with Cork/Kerry and Dublin/Tyrone and anygame involving Kildare will be tight, this safety net of simply backing a Kerry/Tyrone outright final is certainly worth 2-4 points imo.

Secondly if you are doing the 5 bets individually you are risking loosing value based on projected prices as of now, by this I mean Kerry will win their QF rather snuggly IMO, Cork may well struggle due to their injuries, so the 2nd bet on Kerry becomes a related bet, as in the price has shorthed on bet 2 as a result of the outcome of Bet 1. The same logic applies to Tyrone.

You may argue that in relation to my second point that the reverse is as likely to happen, but my arguement here is that I and Im sure all those that have already said they think 8/1 is great value, feel that Kerry and Tyrone are the best teams in their respective halfs of the draw so logic would follow if they perform as we expect over the next few weeks their odds will shrink in due course.

Written communication is not my strongest point and I think I may have strayed off on a few tangents there and not really made my point clear but I hope you can follow what I was attempting to get across.

[GingerMilla]

As far as I'm concerned there was very little between the teams in the Munster final and I don't see any reason, irrespective of the injuries to Cork individual players why it should be any different in the likelihood that they will meet again. Yes Kerry may have former players of the year O'Se and Galvin back but its not certain that they may be able to exert their influence of old on the proceedings after long lay-offs.

Leadership, character and desire are very important elements in any team game and this Cork team imo have them in abundance, making up for anything they be giving to Kerry on the footballing side.

How would you be pricing up a potential Kerry-Cork semi?
I make it evens stephens.

[Keane]

As far as I'm concerned there was very little between the teams in the Munster final and I don't see any reason, irrespective of the injuries to Cork individual players why it should be any different in the likelihood that they will meet again. Yes Kerry may have former players of the year O'Se and Galvin back but its not certain that they may be able to exert their influence of old on the proceedings after long lay-offs.

Leadership, character and desire are very important elements in any team game and this Cork team imo have them in abundance, making up for anything they be giving to Kerry on the footballing side.

How would you be pricing up a potential Kerry-Cork semi?
I make it evens stephens.

The bit in bold is crazy talk. You don't think the personnel that line out is a reason to reassess the game flow?

Tomas O'Se has been the same as ever all through the season - he's only missed a game, and Paul Galvin was the difference between the two sides in the 40 minutes he played against the same opposition over the two games last year.

Is it possible that these two players (plus Scanlon) won't improve the Kerry squad at all? I guess so, but it's wildly improbable. As improbable as being without Ciaran Sheehan and Daniel not hurting Cork's chances.

Leadership, character and desire are factors if you think one team has them over another, but if anything Cork have routinely shown a lack of these attributes in meetings with Kerry at HQ over the last number of years, so suddenly flipping the intangibles in favour of Cork seems pretty weird as well.

When we cut down to it we have:

(Kerry already beat Cork in a close game) + (Cork - 2 of their best 4 forwards) + (Kerry adding 3 or 4 starting quality players to their bench) ~= Cork's perceived superior leadership + character + desire?

I can't see the logic of that at all. Cork may well win the game, but there's no justifying making them favourites based on the above.

[GingerMilla]

Ginger fair play for the analysis and examining the value etc, but one key point and I wasnt going to say anything untill you added that anyone who fancies the 8/1 would be better off backing the 5 seperate results, your logic is wrong here for two reasons :

Firstly your method does not give you the safety of the draw, 5 games fair chance of a draw, especially with Cork/Kerry and Dublin/Tyrone and anygame involving Kildare will be tight, this safety net of simply backing a Kerry/Tyrone outright final is certainly worth 2-4 points imo.

Secondly if you are doing the 5 bets individually you are risking loosing value based on projected prices as of now, by this I mean Kerry will win their QF rather snuggly IMO, Cork may well struggle due to their injuries, so the 2nd bet on Kerry becomes a related bet, as in the price has shorthed on bet 2 as a result of the outcome of Bet 1. The same logic applies to Tyrone.

You may argue that in relation to my second point that the reverse is as likely to happen, but my arguement here is that I and Im sure all those that have already said they think 8/1 is great value, feel that Kerry and Tyrone are the best teams in their respective halfs of the draw so logic would follow if they perform as we expect over the next few weeks their odds will shrink in due course.

Written communication is not my strongest point and I think I may have strayed off on a few tangents there and not really made my point clear but I hope you can follow what I was attempting to get across.

Yhe sure there are variables that have to be factored in, eg if Mayo beat Cork in the q/f then Kerry are long odds on to reach the final. However regarding the cumulative bet on the five individual games I was going on a 'to qualify' bet knocking out the draw in that case.

You have a point also on losing value as the competition progresses I guess ,as if Tyrone were to beat Dublin impressively then they would probably be favorites against Kildare.

I still maintain that 8/1 is a lousy price though. If Kerry on my reckoning are 1/1 to go through then Tyrone are 7/2 to come through their three games. By my reckoning if they do beat Roscommon on Saturday they'll be playing their fourth championship games in five weeks when they take on the Dubs.

10/1 is a more realistic price here.

[GingerMilla]

The bit in bold is crazy talk. You don't think the personnel that line out is a reason to reassess the game flow?

Tomas O'Se has been the same as ever all through the season - he's only missed a game, and Paul Galvin was the difference between the two sides in the 40 minutes he played against the same opposition over the two games last year.

Is it possible that these two players (plus Scanlon) won't improve the Kerry squad at all? I guess so, but it's wildly improbable. As improbable as being without Ciaran Sheehan and Daniel not hurting Cork's chances.

Leadership, character and desire are factors if you think one team has them over another, but if anything Cork have routinely shown a lack of these attributes in meetings with Kerry at HQ over the last number of years, so suddenly flipping the intangibles in favour of Cork seems pretty weird as well.

When we cut down to it we have:

(Kerry already beat Cork in a close game) + (Cork - 2 of their best 4 forwards) + (Kerry adding 3 or 4 starting quality players to their bench) ~= Cork's perceived superior leadership + character + desire?

I can't see the logic of that at all. Cork may well win the game, but there's no justifying making them favourites based on the above.

I have to say, Keane, that the Gaelic games are undoubtedly the sporting highlight of the summer every year, bar the one in twelve we get to play in the soccer world cup.

My wife is from Tipp and I started going to hurling games with her around 1999, been to three All -Ireland hurling finals at this stage and they were amazing occasions, last years final being the best live sport I ever witnessed, by a mile. Unlike yourself I've never been to a football All-Ireland. I'm not a true blue having spent my formative years in Co Westmeath but would love to see the Dubs having a day out.

Of course your knowledge of the Kerry and Cork teams is vastly superior to mine, you being a Munster man but we'll just have to agree to disagree on the overall merits of both sides. I see a different picture to you over a two year period. Incidentally I never had Cork as favorites.

Anyway if they get it on again, may the best team win!

[BigDeal]

cork -3 this weekend is the bet of the summer

Cork -3 last week was the bet of the summer.

I agree this is sweet though, I'm getting on again

[Raheny Red]

-5 is now the HC on Cork!

[BigDeal]

Yeah a bit too good to last, didn't get on either
Will still have a small wager at -5, 7-9 should be the line imho

[Keane]

Think people are underestimating the losses to the Cork forward line tbh - they've lost two of their best forwards this year and their first sub from last year.

Thoughts go back to the AIF in 2009 when they couldn't hit a barn door with a banjo in the second half.

If the weather is bad there's no shot they'll beat a 7-9 point spread.

[Keane]

Article here suggesting Nicholas Murphy may line out at full-forward:

http://examiner.ie/sport/gaa/veteran-murphy-in-line-for-forward-role-as-injuries-mount-162414.html

[ciarraithuaidh]

Darragh O Se certainly agreed with you in a very good article in the Irish Times yesterday.
He says Tyrone look in the form for it right now and while he wouldn't have thought the same three weeks ago, he rates them higher than Dublin and Kildare, presently.

My main point in the earlier post was that the 8/1odds that you took on the chances of a Kerry/Tyrone final were not representative of that likely outcome. The margins been takes here by the bookies are almost criminal. I have Kerry at 1/1 or thereabouts to come through their half of the draw and Tyrone 9/2-5/1 to emerge victorious in their next three
games, two of them over the next two weekends. The net result is closer to 12/1 than 8/1.
The fact is that if you were to do a series of cumulative bets on those five games on Kerry and Tyrone to qualify each time it adds up to more than 8/1. In any case its a rip off. One firm has this advertised at 11/2. Maybe its only a bit of crack but according to your post you've lumped on and obviously don't understand the math involved.

Personally I favour a Cork/Dublin final. Cork have loads of injuries and few big name stars but they appear to have a very strong squad with great desire and I think they'll be very hard to beat. I also fancy Dublin for a late September outing to Croke Park this year and especially if they can get Michael McCauley back to full fitness as he's a key player. Seven or eight of the squad have been beaten in two semi finals by Kerry and those bad experiences shared can spur them on this year. I think the youngest player in the squad is Rory O'Carroll from Kilmacud Crokes at full back and he's already got a club All-Ireland under his belt. Anyway its all to play for still and they haven't got out of 2nd gear yet.

Any GAA betting I do has little to do with Maths to be honest. I understand what you are saying about the cumulative odds for Tyrone not adding up, and 8/1 was the best price I could find anwhere for the particular individual outcome. I will be on Tyrone this weekend and injuries/form pending will be on them to beat Dublin also, so will get my equity either way hopefully.

I'd lay Cork massively to be honest..see Keane's post above, which I agree with..they played well in the Down game but its a bit of a mirage as Down were unbelievably porous. There were signs that their defence when ran at is vulnerable also, especially their half back line.

Like I said, interesting times ahead

[BigDeal]

Think people are underestimating the losses to the Cork forward line tbh - they've lost two of their best forwards this year and their first sub from last year.

Thoughts go back to the AIF in 2009 when they couldn't hit a barn door with a banjo in the second half.

If the weather is bad there's no shot they'll beat a 7-9 point spread.

Looking like the weather will be good, also they've come a long way since 2009. Just think will have far too much for very ordinary opposition.
Disclaimer. could be wrong on this one, not quite as confident as last week.

[theduster]

Limerick and Roscommon could be worth a few pound on the spread this w/end....

[dannydiamond]

Tyrone need to get the finger out here. Alot of handicap accums could be going tits up at the first hurdle.

[Dealers Choice]

when pricing up a game with equal units (goals in soccer) you can use a poisson distribution.


how do you price up GAA matches?

[Donk Magnet]

kildare +1 got through today because it a draw @ f/t??

[Guest]

kildare +1 got through today because it a draw @ f/t??

They would have but Kildare were favourites 1/2 on so probaly were 1/3 on witha plus handicap

[dannydiamond]

kildare +1 got through today because it a draw @ f/t??

Yup, I had the same a part of an accum.

[Donk Magnet]

Yup, I had the same a part of an accum.

. took ur advice on kerry aswell brought them down to -6 left cork at -3 though

[dannydiamond]

. took ur advice on kerry aswell brought them down to -6 left cork at -3 though

I've Kerry -6 and Cork -5. Go us.

[Donk Magnet]

I've Kerry -6 and Cork -5. Go us.

1 time also got tyronne @ 11/10 -6 when they were leading by 5

[Keane]

Seems to be some decent value in the handicap inthe Kerry Limerick game.

Limerick +7 @ 6/4 looks juicy enough.