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Old 07-05-15, 22:05   #41
Morihei
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dobby View Post
Yes but not always which I why I can't understand going broke 100% of the time. Villain 2 in this hand has 3 players already in ahead of him so calling with shitty hands like he had is a huge possibility.
Please carry on believing 5c7c is a 'shitty hand'. Tell all your mates.
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Old 07-05-15, 22:44   #42
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Mad thread. Folding middle set 70bbs deep on a super draw heavy board when we are more than priced in against the flopped nuts seems to be getting a lot of votes. Oprs post summed it up for me anyway
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Old 09-05-15, 01:32   #43
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If you're folding a set of fours in this spot, what are you actually playing the fours for? Yeah, the flop isn't ideal, but it has a 4 on it! I'd be critical of your flat call on the flop. If you yourself re-pop, you've a very easy decision if reraised.

By calling, you're inviting squeezes, and draws to semi-bluff, leaving you not knowing where you are. Take the aggressive route. If you're against a flush draw, you're a 2 to 1 favourite. If you're against a straight, you're 35% to improve to a full house or better.

In the words of JCarver, don't be a nit bitch dude!
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Old 09-05-15, 12:58   #44
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I think you have to go with it here, but it's a bit closer than people seem to be suggesting. If you look at some of the ranges, it's very rare the 44 has less than 30% equity (we need around 30% for it to be a profitable call).

Even if you give the tightest range possible:
Player 1 (utg) - AcXc, 66, 33, 75s
Player 2 - 66, 75s, 75o

You still have ~24% equity.
(Also worth noting, if you give Player 2 the nut flush draw range and Downtown only the made hands of 66, 33 and 57s, your equity is about half a percent less)

These ranges assume a few probably unrealistic things:
- Downtown doesn't have the likes of 57o or 52s in his range as he wouldn't open pre with these hands
- Player 2 only plays 66 here i.e. he doesn't go broke with bottom set. (I've assumed DT can go broke with bottom set because it's easier for Player 2 to fold 33 if DT shoves and you reshove, whereas it's harder/impossible for DT to open fold a set to one raise)
- 52o or 52s aren't in Player 2's range either as he wouldn't play them pre
- all other hands like AA, 56, non nut flush draws etc are never played by either player
- we also assume you're getting it in 3-way (i.e. guy behind who made it 5300 never folds)


These ranges however are ridiculously tight. The only thing is, how many more hands can Player 2 realistically have? Based on your read:
A) is he ever raise-folding a hand like 77 (or raise-folding any hand for that matter)? (based on your read mentioned in OP, the answer is no)
B) does he play 64, 63, 43 pre and get it in here?
C) Is it fair to include hands like 65, 54, Kc5c in his range or is he more likely to flat with these kind of hands?
D) does he call pre with 57o
E) does he go broke with 33 here

I think D) and E) are quite crucial. If he folds 75o pre, I think you have to fold 44 - although it's very difficult to know if he calls 75s pre but folds 75o! If 75o is in his range, and so is 33, I think you've enough equity to call when you factor in the possibility of some other hands.

All in all, I call, but it's close enough. It really depends on how tight player 2 is. A lot of tight Irish players only raise with their made hands (33, 66, 75 namely) here and all other hands (stuff like 65) they just flat call.
Given it's a one day tournament with a fast structure, I get it in happily enough. If it's a 3-day tournament with a really good structure, it's a more difficult decision I think.

Last edited by Jam-Fly; 09-05-15 at 13:01.
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Old 09-05-15, 13:20   #45
Dice75
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Originally Posted by specter View Post
I I'd be critical of your flat call on the flop.

By calling, you're inviting squeezes, and draws to semi-bluff, leaving you not knowing where you are. Take the aggressive route. If you're against a flush draw, you're a 2 to 1 favourite. If you're against a straight, you're 35% to improve to a full house or better.

In the words of JCarver, don't be a nit bitch dude!

That's exactly what I was doing, I just didn't want a double squeeze vs 2 very competent players (player 2 was "The Istanbul" who replied above). Why would i want to bet someone off a draw when i know what I want to see/not see on the turn, which is the street I'd much rather be getting it in on.

fwiw - I initially had DT on big pair and my reason for flatting was to get it in vs a squeeze behind HU on the flop or vs DT on a non turn when I expect him to commit (he had 11k behind with 10k in the middle had the player behind me folded the flop). What I didn't bargain on was his flop shove which completely threw me.

Anyway, as I said, I think folding was a mistake in this instance even if I'm up against 57/NFD/33 combos. If either shows up with 66, c'est la vie. In a 3/4 day Event with 1 hour blinds, maybe its a bit closer (as JamFly says above)
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Old 09-05-15, 13:38   #46
Denny Crane
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Originally Posted by specter View Post
If you're folding a set of fours in this spot, what are you actually playing the fours for? Yeah, the flop isn't ideal, but it has a 4 on it! I'd be critical of your flat call on the flop. If you yourself re-pop, you've a very easy decision if reraised.

By calling, you're inviting squeezes, and draws to semi-bluff, leaving you not knowing where you are. Take the aggressive route. If you're against a flush draw, you're a 2 to 1 favourite. If you're against a straight, you're 35% to improve to a full house or better.

In the words of JCarver, don't be a nit bitch dude!
This feels like a post from 2005! Poker isn't about knowing where you are or easy decisions, it's about profitable decisions.
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Old 09-05-15, 15:05   #47
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Originally Posted by Denny Crane View Post
This feels like a post from 2005! Poker isn't about knowing where you are or easy decisions, it's about profitable decisions.
This is basically stating the obvious, thanks for that.

OP has referred to his 2 opponents in a way to suggest that they are both competent. We have 2 opponents showing strength against us in this hand. Top set must enter the fray also.
Folding in this spot is not a poor decision.
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Old 09-05-15, 15:52   #48
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Fold with them reads. Giving Villan 2 46s,33,66,57s and a5cc.

Rory is good so him snap shoving should make his range A5cc or sets (doesn't open 57s especially at a table where he's getting 7callers). He should possibly fold bottom set but presuming he gets it in we have under 20% equity 3 way. Rory is easily folding all overpairs here.

Last edited by GaryT; 09-05-15 at 15:54.
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Old 09-05-15, 17:45   #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GaryT View Post
Fold with them reads. Giving Villan 2 46s,33,66,57s and a5cc.

Rory is good so him snap shoving should make his range A5cc or sets (doesn't open 57s especially at a table where he's getting 7callers). He should possibly fold bottom set but presuming he gets it in we have under 20% equity 3 way. Rory is easily folding all overpairs here.
Rory has already been on to say he had the aces! Or maybe dice mentioned it. Either way, he didn't fold.
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