Irish Poker Boards
Register Arcade FAQ Members List Calendar Mark Forums Read

Notices

Go Back   Irish Poker Boards > Gambling > General Gambling
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 07-08-14, 20:54   #21
luckforsome
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,169
...of course I seen this after 8pm...I checked paddy power and betting unavailable...will it be back on tomorrow do you think?...
luckforsome is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-08-14, 21:29   #22
Arazi
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 792
Yeah for sure. Price could be shorter as some of the fancied ones have run poorly (Nidge doesn't start until Sat night) and possibly the offer may no longer apply.
Arazi is offline   Reply With Quote
Thanks From:
Old 07-08-14, 21:41   #23
Strewelpeter
Member
 
Strewelpeter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: I Won
Posts: 19,742
Quote:
Originally Posted by luckforsome View Post
...of course I seen this after 8pm...I checked paddy power and betting unavailable...will it be back on tomorrow do you think?...
Probably the first day in months that I haven't looked in here all day FFS!
__________________
Turning millions into thousands
Strewelpeter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-08-14, 21:44   #24
dobby
Member
 
dobby's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: The Infirmary
Posts: 6,759
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arazi View Post
Yeah for sure. Price could be shorter as some of the fancied ones have run poorly (Nidge doesn't start until Sat night) and possibly the offer may no longer apply.
Hey Arazi, I never back dogs so I've no idea what to look for. I followed the instructions in here earlier to place the bet. Anyway, where should I be looking for updates? Or will you be posting an update after the race here? I assume if he wins this place will be buzzing but I'd like to keep updated on my phone in work all weekend. ty
dobby is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-08-14, 22:21   #25
Arazi
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 792
The first rd is this week, thurs and sat, where there are 23 heats with the top 4 progressing (a couple of 5 to qualify heats including one where the third fav outright was eliminated tonight). This gets it from 138 dogs down to 96.

Then it's 3 to qualify from 6 every night afterwards, 96 to 48 to 24 (quarters) to 12 (Semis) to the final 6.

The second rd is split over thurs and sat of next week and then it's every Saturday after that. The final will be Saturday 5 weeks.

The heats will be live in the betting shops or igb.ie have a mobile app where u can open an account and bet 1 to watch a race.

If u like I'll update after he runs each week.
Arazi is offline   Reply With Quote
4 Thanks From:
Old 07-08-14, 22:23   #26
Arazi
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 792
Updates on igb.ie
Go to the results section and check Shelbourne Park or else the Talking Dogs section will have previews and reports.
Arazi is offline   Reply With Quote
Thanks From:
Old 07-08-14, 22:28   #27
dobby
Member
 
dobby's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: The Infirmary
Posts: 6,759
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arazi View Post
Updates on igb.ie
Go to the results section and check Shelbourne Park or else the Talking Dogs section will have previews and reports.
Thanks very much for all the info Arazi. No need to update thread after each race. You provided more than enough info for me to follow, ty. Just gotta wait to collect 500 quid in a few weeks so
dobby is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-08-14, 22:34   #28
Jam-Fly
Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 2,886
Any guesses when betting will be available again for this? Assuming the refund promo isn't available any more, what price would you say is still +EV? Cheers for the tip Arazi.
Jam-Fly is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-08-14, 22:41   #29
TonyCascarino
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 275
Super dog..massive potential, great times posted and has a good chance of winning the Derby. However, 10s or 12s is an incredibly short price. Some of the analysis here has been quite misleading. There is absolutely no way he could be a 7/2 shot as stated. It's wildly over stating it to say this. Also, it's really pushing it to say he would have been favourite for the last 10 derbies. Bottom line is the dog is still a novice. His price is very very short indeed. Early gears and early pace is great but what will he do when he doesn't break well against top class opposition? There are a lot of rounds to get through in the derby. Speed and clock isn't enough for the derby. Greyhound racing is precarious enough as it is and it's madness to be excited about the price about Nidge. There are dogs in there that are more proven than him that are the same price just to make the final. 10/1 is a dinky price. There is a trend where spectacular dogs fail to fulfil promise due to poor tracking or lack of being truly genuine. We'll see. I definitely wouldn't be going mad on him.
TonyCascarino is offline   Reply With Quote
Thanks From:
Old 07-08-14, 22:46   #30
mdoug
Member
 
mdoug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 8,918
Quote:
Originally Posted by dobman88 View Post
Hey Arazi, I never back dogs so I've no idea what to look for. I followed the instructions in here earlier to place the bet. Anyway, where should I be looking for updates? Or will you be posting an update after the race here? I assume if he wins this place will be buzzing but I'd like to keep updated on my phone in work all weekend. ty
He wasn't racing tonight but the 4th favourite is gone after a serious injury and 2nd favourite barely got through with a poor 4th place


For anyone on Droopys Ridge then Race #3 @8:10 on Saturday, Trap 6 in the lovely black and white striped. Anyone on Holdem Spy is race #1 trap 6 too


edit to add, in agreement with tony above - was contemplating ballymac vic myself but figured I'd be a sheep

Last edited by mdoug; 07-08-14 at 22:52.
mdoug is offline   Reply With Quote
Thanks From:
Old 07-08-14, 23:06   #31
TonyCascarino
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 275
Yeah have ballymac vic myself with a low level of confidence. Also on tyrur sugar ray and a speculative punt on priceless lassie. She's a novice and the value is well and truly gone. In for the craic though. Although history don't favour da bitches yo.

Last edited by TonyCascarino; 07-08-14 at 23:10.
TonyCascarino is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-08-14, 23:22   #32
westlife
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,581
Quote:
Originally Posted by TonyCascarino View Post
Super dog..massive potential, great times posted and has a good chance of winning the Derby. However, 10s or 12s is an incredibly short price. Some of the analysis here has been quite misleading. There is absolutely no way he could be a 7/2 shot as stated. It's wildly over stating it to say this. Also, it's really pushing it to say he would have been favourite for the last 10 derbies. Bottom line is the dog is still a novice. His price is very very short indeed. Early gears and early pace is great but what will he do when he doesn't break well against top class opposition? There are a lot of rounds to get through in the derby. Speed and clock isn't enough for the derby. Greyhound racing is precarious enough as it is and it's madness to be excited about the price about Nidge. There are dogs in there that are more proven than him that are the same price just to make the final. 10/1 is a dinky price. There is a trend where spectacular dogs fail to fulfil promise due to poor tracking or lack of being truly genuine. We'll see. I definitely wouldn't be going mad on him.
Would not be an expert on greyhounds but you are 1/10 to be right that he wont win it! My point is that is is easy to knock a tip that is 12/1... you are long odds on to be right. If he gives people a good spin at a decent punting price (10-12/1) then a great wager he is. He is 1/3 to win the heat on sat. Also, as it is sponsored by Boyles they showed the first heats live on their live feed tonight (maybe it was live on the full live stream?)... I assume they will do the same on sat so check it out in the shops
westlife is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-08-14, 23:22   #33
Arazi
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 792
Hi Tony,
I've no problem with anyone disagreeing with my opinion, it's obvious that all of the odds compilers are in disagreement but I take exception at you saying that anything I've said is misleading.
On all known form Nidge is the fastest dog in the Derby by a considerable way. He starts and he stays.
There are 138 entries, 100 plus can't win it, they only serve to eliminate contenders when they get it wrong.
IMO (which is what I said) Nidge has a 20% plus chance of winning based on his clocks, running style and indeed potential to improve beyond what he's already done, that's 7/2 - 4/1.
What price would u see him being at the 1/4 final stage given he only runs to what he's currently shown? Is my projection misleading?
Outside of the He Said So derby (this was the one with Maldini, Marco & Westmead Hawk) where he may still have been Fav which Derby do you think he'd have not been Fav?

Last edited by Arazi; 07-08-14 at 23:41.
Arazi is offline   Reply With Quote
Thanks From:
Old 07-08-14, 23:40   #34
TonyCascarino
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 275
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arazi View Post
Hi Tony,
I've no problem with anyone disagreeing with my opinion, it's obvious that all of the odds compilers are in disagreement but I take exception at you saying that anything I've said is misleading.
On all known form Nidge is the fastest dog in the Derby by a considerable way. He starts and he stays.
There are 138 entries, 100 plus can't win it, they only serve to eliminate contenders when they get it wrong.
IMO (which is what I said) Nidge has a 20% plus chance of winning based on his clocks, running style and indeed potential to improve beyond what he's already done, that's 7/2 - 4/1.
What price would u see him being at the 1/4 final stage given he only runs to what he's currently shown? Is my projection misleading?
Outside of the He Said So derby where he may have been Fav which Derby do you think he'd have not been Fav?
Well saying he should be a 7/2 shot is misleading. He has a good chance but saying he should be that short is a little ott. I'm not interested at what price he is at the 1/4 final stage. I just think he's very short at 10s and is definitely not a 7/2 shot masquerading as a 10/1 shot. That's where I think you are being misleading. I never said he wouldn't win but when people with little or no knowledge read your post they are tempted to back him on said info. I just think you over did it that's all. It's very hard to back up claims such as being the fav for last 10 derbies and that he is massively overpriced at 10/1. I just fail to see how you can back up such lofty claims. In relation to comparisons over the last decade, you may as well be comparing different tracks shelbourne has changed that much. It's very hard/ impossible to compare dogs/times of the last 10 years.

Might I add, that as a greyhound fan I hope such novices turn out to be superstars. It's good for the industry. This game needs a superstar. A genuine superstar. One that wins no matter what. I'd love if nidge was that as it gets people back in the gates. But a 7/2 shot he aint.

Last edited by TonyCascarino; 07-08-14 at 23:52.
TonyCascarino is offline   Reply With Quote
Thanks From:
Old 07-08-14, 23:53   #35
Flushdraw
The Gamesmaster
 
Flushdraw's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Swieqi, Sunny Malta
Posts: 21,811
Why do you keep saying 10/1? He was 12/1 in 4 places when Arazi said. There's a bit of a difference in 10/1 and 12/1 tbh
Flushdraw is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-08-14, 23:59   #36
NewApproach
Member
 
NewApproach's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Below EV
Posts: 5,281
In Arazi we trust.
NewApproach is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-08-14, 00:02   #37
Arazi
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 792
There was a period in late 2012 and early 2013 where the Shelbourne track was running ridiculously fast (on average prob 40 spots based on what dogs had done before and since). If you take that period out then in his short 6 race career Droopys Nidge is just about the fastest dog to run Shelbourne and he has better early than most. As a wide seed he'll be in 5 or 6 most nights, where he wants to be.
Most of the credible alternatives to him this year have already fallen away thru injury (Siderian Rhythm, Siderian Blaze, Greenwell Hulk).

I can't envision a line up right now where you could hand pick 5 other dogs in this Derby and he'd be Odds against, seriously try it, he can't be badly drawn.
He'll be odds on every night, massively odds on to qualify.
If he misses it in top class company he may struggle but he'd be unlucky to be in top class company before the 1/4s of this Derby.
I'd be backing him at 5s for this right now.

[edit to say that backing him at 5s does not mean I think he's 5/1, it means I think he's value at 5/1]

Last edited by Arazi; 08-08-14 at 00:22.
Arazi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-08-14, 00:10   #38
TonyCascarino
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 275
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flushdraw View Post
Why do you keep saying 10/1? He was 12/1 in 4 places when Arazi said. There's a bit of a difference in 10/1 and 12/1 tbh
That's why I said 10 OR 12s. He was and is 10s currently with PP for example. Not sure what your point is tbh.
TonyCascarino is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-08-14, 00:16   #39
TonyCascarino
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2012
Posts: 275
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arazi View Post
There was a period in late 2012 and early 2013 where the Shelbourne track was running ridiculously fast (on average prob 40 spots based on what dogs had done before and since). If you take that period out then in his short 6 race career Droopys Nidge is just about the fastest dog to run Shelbourne and he has better early than most. As a wide seed he'll be in 5 or 6 most nights, where he wants to be.
Most of the credible alternatives to him this year have already fallen away thru injury (Siderian Rhythm, Siderian Blaze, Greenwell Hulk).

I can't envision a line up right now where you could hand pick 5 other dogs in this Derby and he'd be Odds against, seriously try it, he can't be badly drawn.
He'll be odds on every night, massively odds on to qualify.
If he misses it in top class company he may struggle but he'd be unlucky to be in top class company before the 1/4s of this Derby.
I'd be backing him at 5s for this right now.
Well your own price has drifted from 7/2 to 4s to 5s today alone. I am aware of all the above. My point still remains that I think it's misleading to say that he is a 7/2 shot masquerading as a 10 OR!!!! 12/1 shot. You obviously know your stuff as demonstrated in above but I think your analysis is a little skewed. That affects how people bet.
TonyCascarino is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-08-14, 00:17   #40
Arazi
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 792
Anyway you may of course be correct, time will tell. Fwiw thou I wouldn't tip anything up here that I wasn't prepared to have my bollix on so fingers crossed.
Arazi is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

  Irish Poker Boards > Gambling > General Gambling

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On



All times are GMT. The time now is 22:45.