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Old 08-03-10, 22:01   #21
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Originally Posted by connie147 View Post
Right Tony, here we go.

You rightly say Joe is ranked 22 and Ken is 44. That is on the ranking they both had at the start of the current season. But thats not reliable really and I'll try and explain why:

1-That ranking was decided by the players performances over the previous 2 seasons. Ken had a rotten year in 2008/2009 that dropped him to 44 in the rankings.

2- On the current 2 year rankings, 2009/2010, (with only the China Open and the WC ranking points to be added, (theses are the rankings the players will start next season with), Joe is ranked 38 with 18,134pts, and Ken is ranked 29th with 20,854 pts.

3-On the 1 year rankings (just tournaments played in the 2009/2010 season, they also keep a 1 year ranking list. Here Ken is ranked as high as 9 with 13,060 pts, while Joe is ranked down at 59, with 6,215 pts.

4-Some other facts and figures from this season that might surprise you:

96 professionals in total

a- Ken has 33 x 50+ breaks this season, in 19th position,
Joe has 10 x 50+ breaks this season, in 79th position.

b- Ken has 3 century breaks this season, in 38th position.
Joe has 0 century breaks this season, in 93rd place.

c- In frame %'s of frames won out of frames played,
Ken is 15th with 55.85%
Joe is 86th with 38.78%

d- In frame scoring averages:
Ken is 14th with an average of 53.88pts
Joe is 61st with an average of 48.06pts.

What these figures say is simple really. Joe is having a horrendous season and his confidence is completely shot. On the other hand, Ken has been rejuvinated this season after a brutal 2008/2009. Joe will be under all kinds of pressure. They've both been there and done that, (as you say, Joe has 2 x semis to his name at the WC's, but Ken has two finals to his name, with 1 win. If Joe loses here, he will be in real danger next year of losing his top 64 spot after this season, so the pressure on him is huge. I think Ken is a shoe-in for this match mostly because of all the facts and figures above, but also because I know Ken well, and I know the hunger still burns inside him. He wants this badly, and I cant see him failing. Ken is 8/15 with Powers, and 4/7 with Boyles, and he's a max bet in my book.
Results based obv but this was a fantastic bit of analysis. Wp and like Kev said we would love to see more.
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Old 09-03-10, 01:21   #22
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I think I speak for everyone when I say to keep the analysis coming Connie.
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Originally Posted by Silver-Tiger View Post
Results based obv but this was a fantastic bit of analysis. Wp and like Kev said we would love to see more.

Thanks lads. But like all gambling, its never easy, and can go wrong, but theres no doubt, if youre to make money at snooker betting, the World Championships is definately the tournament to be betting on. None of these best of 9's where shock results come aplenty, with the shortest match being the 1st round best of 19's, and the 2nd round, best of 25 frames.

A bonus this year (I hope!!) is that a good friend of mine, who is a professional snooker player, keeps meticulous records of breakbuilding on each player in every competitive match they play. He has explained it to me and says that the amount of times some firms underestimate the breakbuilding ability of some relatively unknown players as well as known players, especially over these longer matches, is scary. He likes to play the amount of 50+ breaks in a match, and the spread under/over depending on where the line is set for the high break in a particular match, at x amount per point, depending on your bank.

He is emailing me all the details, and all i have to do is decipher it!!!! Anyway, he'll be giving me some much respected advice on the WC (especially on the type of bets above), so i will share his advice with ye as i get it.

I rang him this evening to see if he could point me in the right direction tomorrow in 1 or 2 of the last few qualifying matches, as no matter how many times I went through the matches, I just couldnt find any bet I was happy with. His advice? "yeah, do an accum on the favs, and then do an accum on all the outsiders" says he, "because anything could happen there". "Save your powder for the crucible", and I agree with that.

Im really looking forward to this years c/ships. I think barry Hearne is gonna be great for the game in the long run, and i can already feel a change in the air as regards how snooker is being run. Wouldn't it be great to see the sport regain some of its popularity?

Connie
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Old 09-03-10, 22:26   #23
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The only other non-faves i might back are Green @ evens v McLoad and i might have a flutter on Zhang @ 3/1 v Walden. Walden's up to 20 in the World, but the Chinese are coming through thick and fast the last 2 seasons. Zhangs beaten John Parrott and Andrew Higginson in the last 2 rounds and if he gets an early lead against Walden, he might be able to hold onto it.
So Greene and Zhang got through and i didn't have a cent on either. Wp Tony!
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Old 11-03-10, 11:36   #24
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Here's the draw for the 1st round proper of the World Championships in Sheffield. Some interesting pairings there.

John Higgins v Barry Hawkins

Mark King v Steve Davis

Neil Robertson v Fergal O'Brien

Marco Fu v Martin Gould

Ali Carter v Jamie Cope

Joe Perry v Michael Holt

Ding Junhui v Stuart Pettman

Shaun Murphy vGerard Greene

Stephen Maguire v Stephen Lee

Peter Ebdon v Graeme Dott

Mark Allen v Tom Ford

Ryan Day v Mark Davis

Mark Selby v Ken Doherty

Stephen Hendry v Zhang Anda

Mark Williams v Marcus Campbell

Ronnie O'Sullivan v Liang Wenbo
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Old 11-03-10, 12:05   #25
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Connie,

That is some v impressive stat analysis - can I ask where you source the data from?
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Old 11-03-10, 16:21   #26
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Connie,

That is some v impressive stat analysis - can I ask where you source the data from?

Hi Noel,
A lot is my own study of it, but in fairness, a lot comes from a friend of mine who's involved in the game. (he's not doing anything wrong, just keeps hios own figures).
Most of the stats i put up for the Swail/Doherty match came from the best snooker site out there, global-snooker.

www.global-snooker.com go into cuefacts, and then into cuefacts 2009/2010 and then into 2009/2010 tour stats.

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Old 07-04-10, 11:42   #27
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Connie,

I had a good chat with Ken Doherty at the weekend and he was very bullish about his current form. Said he was potting well and playing with lots of confidence, he particularly stressed the importance of confidence to his game. Ive often asked Ken how he was feeling about his game in the past and he would say it honestly, not striking well or whatever. So his confidence was notable at the weekend.

I suggested that he had a tough first round draw but he was quick to retort that Selby was the one with the tough draw. Ive had a look at his cue stats for 2010. Id guess you are better placed to interpret these than I am so would you mind to give your slant?

Obv Selby scores higher in break building etc but I doubt that even at his peak that break building was the strong point of Kens game? (maybe it was I am underestimating it). Ken was always a man for the trenches where he would get in and scrap, play good safety, stop his opponent from building big breaks and then nip in with the solid 30 - 40 point contributions. On the other hand I am not sure that Selby really enjoys that sort of game.

My point - Ken is 11/4 to beat Selby. He is also 5/6 +3.5 frames (not everyone has this priced yet so it may be bigger yet). to me those seem like reasonable odds to punt at. Can you tell me if I am in cloud cuckoo land?

StatsDohertyRankSelbyRank
Frames Played1541414219
Frame Percentages59.74452.8225
Scoring Averages For55.64956.645
Scoring Averages Against44.75649.635
Highest Breaks129431416
50+ Breaks4418576
50 break Rate3.5242.494
100+ Breaks348126
100 Break Rate51.335711.835
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Old 08-04-10, 18:21   #28
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Connie, can you reply to my PMs please?
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Old 08-04-10, 19:10   #29
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I backed Williams all last year for the Worlds when it looked like he coming into form. And again this year, I have him punted at some ignorant odds for the WC. Hope he wins this tournament and the prices I have won't be seen again
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Old 09-04-10, 00:38   #30
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Connie, can you reply to my PMs please?
Connie's in Aintree Tommy. Doubt he'll see IPB until Sunday earliest.
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Old 16-04-10, 00:47   #31
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Originally Posted by Gimmeabreak View Post
Connie,

I had a good chat with Ken Doherty at the weekend and he was very bullish about his current form. Said he was potting well and playing with lots of confidence, he particularly stressed the importance of confidence to his game. Ive often asked Ken how he was feeling about his game in the past and he would say it honestly, not striking well or whatever. So his confidence was notable at the weekend.

I suggested that he had a tough first round draw but he was quick to retort that Selby was the one with the tough draw. Ive had a look at his cue stats for 2010. Id guess you are better placed to interpret these than I am so would you mind to give your slant?

Obv Selby scores higher in break building etc but I doubt that even at his peak that break building was the strong point of Kens game? (maybe it was I am underestimating it). Ken was always a man for the trenches where he would get in and scrap, play good safety, stop his opponent from building big breaks and then nip in with the solid 30 - 40 point contributions. On the other hand I am not sure that Selby really enjoys that sort of game.

My point - Ken is 11/4 to beat Selby. He is also 5/6 +3.5 frames (not everyone has this priced yet so it may be bigger yet). to me those seem like reasonable odds to punt at. Can you tell me if I am in cloud cuckoo land?

StatsDohertyRankSelbyRank
Frames Played1541414219
Frame Percentages59.74452.8225
Scoring Averages For55.64956.645
Scoring Averages Against44.75649.635
Highest Breaks129431416
50+ Breaks4418576
50 break Rate3.5242.494
100+ Breaks348126
100 Break Rate51.335711.835
hi Noel,
Sorry about being so late responding to your post, but i was a bit tied up for a while!

And no, your not in cloud cuckoo land. I've said it many times before, confidence is such a huge ingrediant in most sports (in fact, in most parts of life). Thers no doubt that ken is going to the crucible full of it, while Selby's confidence must be pretty low. When the draw was made for the last 32, there were 2 players in particular that the top players wanted to avoid, and that was ken and Wembo. And whereas ken could have got a better draw than drawing Selby, Selby probably drew the one player he wanted to avoid in the 1st round.

And yes, ken mighnt be known for constant big breaks, but as you say, thats not the strenth of his game. Sure he likes to win his frames with one visit, but he's just at home while scrapping out a frame on the colours. I think he's one of the best in the buisness at stealing frames from 40-50 behind with 4 or 5 reds left. like you say, he's buzzing and up for it, and I think he's definately overpriced at 11/4 to win the match. I'll be on it anyway, and I'm going to go stark raving mad and have an interest in ken for his quarter at 25/1. I know its the toughest quarter there, but if he gets over Selby, what price will he be for the quarter then? I'd fancy him against hendry in the 16, and then its ronnie or Mark J. Hopeful thinking maybe, but we live in hope!!!!

connie
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Old 16-04-10, 02:09   #32
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Some 1st round observations.

I think the 1st round is pretty much going to go to form and accums will probably be the best way to go. In Sheffield, experience counts for so much. The other single thing that has a huge effect on matches is players fighting to be in the top 16 for next season. This is the last tournament of the season, and in the world championships, every match won counts as double points. And players who have to win to get into the top 16, seldom, if ever play to their true potential. Understandable really, considering the pressure they are under, because when your in the top 16, your guaranteed a good living out of the game, when your out of the 16, lifes a struggle. So to snooker pros, being in the top 16 at the start of the season is everything. So combine the pressure of being in that position and now add the pressure of the crucible itself.

Which points me to 2 matches of interest. Joe Perry is playing Michael holt. Now neither of these players had impressive seasons,and if anything, Joes season has been the more dissappointing. Ranked number 12 in the world at the start of the season, in the 70 competitive frames he played this season, he had only 16 breaks over 50. He is now number 19 in the rankings, and needs to win probably 2 matches at the world championships if he is to stay in the top 16. Holt can be inconsistant, but he'll know the pressure perry will be under, and I expect Holt to pile on the heat on Perry and come out in front. Holt is generally available at 6/5 or 11/8, and in Boyles, he can be backed in Boyles at 9/10 +1.5 frames.

The 2nd match I'm highlighting is Ali Carter versus Jamie Cope. Ali Carter has had a great season, is up to number 3 in the world rankings and comes to the crucible on the back of being beaten finalist there last year where he was very impressive. His opponnent is jamie Cope. A fine young player, and a breath of fresh air to the game. He also had a great world championship last year. But he came into that as a virtual unknown, and this year, he comes in at number 17 in the rankings. Now he has the pressure of where this is a must win game to get him into the top 16. Even without that pressure on Cope, I'd still be very sweet on Carter in this match, and generally available at 8/11, I think carter is a great bet. (1/2 would be more like his odds imho).

Some observations on other 1st round matches:

Peter Ebdon seems good value at 4/6 against graham dott.

I think Mark davies has a great chance of upsetting number 6 seed ryan day. Day has had a very dissappointing season, while davis has had a very impressive one. Mark davis is a very good match player, and while day is a good frontrunner, he not sure to get into that position. At 11/4 generally, Mark davis is worth a little interest.

Now 3 for the handicap:
Mark williams (-3.5 @8/11)
Steven Maguire (-2.5 @ 8/11)
sean Murphy (-3.5 @ 8/11)


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Old 22-04-10, 14:21   #33
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Originally Posted by connie147 View Post
Some 1st round observations.

I think the 1st round is pretty much going to go to form and accums will probably be the best way to go. In Sheffield, experience counts for so much. The other single thing that has a huge effect on matches is players fighting to be in the top 16 for next season. This is the last tournament of the season, and in the world championships, every match won counts as double points. And players who have to win to get into the top 16, seldom, if ever play to their true potential. Understandable really, considering the pressure they are under, because when your in the top 16, your guaranteed a good living out of the game, when your out of the 16, lifes a struggle. So to snooker pros, being in the top 16 at the start of the season is everything. So combine the pressure of being in that position and now add the pressure of the crucible itself.

Which points me to 2 matches of interest. Joe Perry is playing Michael holt. Now neither of these players had impressive seasons,and if anything, Joes season has been the more dissappointing. Ranked number 12 in the world at the start of the season, in the 70 competitive frames he played this season, he had only 16 breaks over 50. He is now number 19 in the rankings, and needs to win probably 2 matches at the world championships if he is to stay in the top 16. Holt can be inconsistant, but he'll know the pressure perry will be under, and I expect Holt to pile on the heat on Perry and come out in front. Holt is generally available at 6/5 or 11/8, and in Boyles, he can be backed in Boyles at 9/10 +1.5 frames.

The 2nd match I'm highlighting is Ali Carter versus Jamie Cope. Ali Carter has had a great season, is up to number 3 in the world rankings and comes to the crucible on the back of being beaten finalist there last year where he was very impressive. His opponnent is jamie Cope. A fine young player, and a breath of fresh air to the game. He also had a great world championship last year. But he came into that as a virtual unknown, and this year, he comes in at number 17 in the rankings. Now he has the pressure of where this is a must win game to get him into the top 16. Even without that pressure on Cope, I'd still be very sweet on Carter in this match, and generally available at 8/11, I think carter is a great bet. (1/2 would be more like his odds imho).

Some observations on other 1st round matches:

Peter Ebdon seems good value at 4/6 against graham dott.

I think Mark davies has a great chance of upsetting number 6 seed ryan day. Day has had a very dissappointing season, while davis has had a very impressive one. Mark davis is a very good match player, and while day is a good frontrunner, he not sure to get into that position. At 11/4 generally, Mark davis is worth a little interest.

Now 3 for the handicap:
Mark williams (-3.5 @8/11)
Steven Maguire (-2.5 @ 8/11)
sean Murphy (-3.5 @ 8/11)


connie

Well, not a bad 1st round I guess.
Holt just cant do it at the top level and he has to be marked as a bet against in future.
Also, I backed against Dott 3 times this year. and he's done me every time!! Gotta stop that.
And Ken was disappointing. I know Selby played extremely well, but I dont think ken will be happy with his own performance. If Selby keeps playing like that, he'll take some stopping.

But its not all bad news. That Ali Carter bet came through easily, and the 11/4 advised on Mark davis against Ryan Day was very welcome. Also, the handicap treble advised is looking very good, with Williams bringing up his part, Murphy is 8-1 up so should do the buisness for us, and Maguire (-2.5) is 6-3 up and needs to win 10-7 to bring it up. here's hoping anyway.

2nd round action.

Had a look at the 2nd round games, and heres my view on a few of them:

The bet of the round looks like Ali Carter at 10/11 on PP (-3.5) against Joe perry. I know its my 2nd time going against Perry, but now its best of 25 frames, and I really expect Carter to come through here easily.

Mark Selby (-3.5) looks good against hendry at 5/6.

Martin Gould, after playing very well in the 1st round, is big at 10/11 + 5.5 frames against neil Robertson. He only has to get to 8 frames to collect.

I also think Mark allan will be far too strong for Mark Davis and think 8/11 at -4.5 is fair enough.

I backed Ding to win it out, and also have an interest in Carter and Murphy. Carter is still available at 20/1 which I think is overpriced.

Im happy enough to be on them, from what I've seen, the winner is amonst them or Selby in which I dont have an interest. Ronnie doesnt seem to think he can win it this year, but of course if he turns it on, he's more than capable.

Connie
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Old 22-04-10, 16:05   #34
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I think this is between Ding, Higgins and Robertson. Ding is certainly the form player, Higgins is the best in the world at the moment, and Robertson just can't be ruled out of this kind of tournament. He really gathers momentum as time goes on and is very hard to stop.

I'm going to lay Selby and O'Sullivan. O'Sullivan is a legend, but if he says he can't win it this year, he can't win it this year. Selby's a nice lad, but I don't think he's got the bottle for this one.
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Old 22-04-10, 16:12   #35
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I think Robertson, Ding, Selby, Allen and obviously Ronnie in patches looked potential winners in round 1.

Williams and Higgins were both disappointing i thought but have room to improve in their next match.

AndyFB Selby is a proven tournament winner who has beaten Ronnie in final frame decdiders in the Masters and Welsh Open, dont know how you can say his bottle is under question.

As regards second round matches i agree with Connie on Carter and Selby against the handicap and i have already backed Allen and Higgins against the handicap as well.

Last edited by Starvin Marvin; 22-04-10 at 16:14.
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Old 22-04-10, 16:44   #36
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I really fancied Martin Gould to beat Fu in round one, was my only glimmer of light after taking on Hendry (not sure how i didnt collect) Mark King will never carry another cent of my money and i thought Tom Ford would at least cover the handicap vs Allen.

Ive got a 25/1 outright bet on Mark Williams whichl im still reasonably confident about, im sure playin Ronnie will bring out the best in him, could be the match of the tournament.

Ive a feeling Dott will be hard to beat so will try keep him onside
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Old 22-04-10, 20:02   #37
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AndyFB Selby is a proven tournament winner who has beaten Ronnie in final frame decdiders in the Masters and Welsh Open, dont know how you can say his bottle is under question.
Perhaps bottle is the wrong word. I don't think he has the consistent quality to beat someone like Higgins in a 30+ frame match. He's a good player and he's constantly improving, but I don't think he's there yet. My money is on the line with this so I'll have more than just egg on my face if he lifts the trophy.
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Old 22-04-10, 20:50   #38
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Perhaps bottle is the wrong word. I don't think he has the consistent quality to beat someone like Higgins in a 30+ frame match. He's a good player and he's constantly improving, but I don't think he's there yet. My money is on the line with this so I'll have more than just egg on my face if he lifts the trophy.
I would actually have the complete opposite opinion, selby is a WC finalist dual masters champion, he's has everything needed to win this
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Old 22-04-10, 23:53   #39
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I would actually have the complete opposite opinion, selby is a WC finalist dual masters champion, he's has everything needed to win this


Agree 100%.

Connie


BTW, am i the only 1 to give Carter a chance? he doesnt seem to be in amyone elses fancies for the title? he played very well here when getting to the final last year, and he is after having such a good season, he's up to no. 3 in the rankings.

Last edited by connie147; 22-04-10 at 23:56.
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Old 23-04-10, 10:03   #40
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I'm gonna take Dott to beat Maguire. I think it's gonna be a close one
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