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Old 29-01-10, 14:54   #1
connie147
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Snooker betting thread.

I know its not the most fashionable of sports, buy really, sometimes some very good value can be found. Theres no harm in having a thread up for it anyway.


Here yesterdays first 1. Off to a winning start anyway.



""""The odds mightnt be great, but i cant see past the treble tonight in the snooker, Williams, higgens and Selby. Should be able to get about 6/4 the treble."""""

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Old 29-01-10, 17:29   #2
Kim Huybrechts
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I backed Williams all last year for the Worlds when it looked like he coming into form. And again this year, I have him punted at some ignorant odds for the WC. Hope he wins this tournament and the prices I have won't be seen again
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Old 29-01-10, 17:58   #3
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My snooker tip is that Neil Robertson will go deep in this year's world champs. He's well worth an each way punt.
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Old 09-02-10, 10:08   #4
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Anybody want to give me 11/10 (2.10) on Barry Hawkins in the snooker @ 11 (1 hours time)

Looking to get €30 on if someone feel like putting their €33 on the line?

First booker to post pre-11 has it if they want.
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Old 09-02-10, 17:24   #5
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Originally Posted by lee_arama View Post
Anybody want to give me 11/10 (2.10) on Barry Hawkins in the snooker @ 11 (1 hours time)

Looking to get €30 on if someone feel like putting their €33 on the line?

First booker to post pre-11 has it if they want.
What was he playing in today Lee. I`d have took this one off ya if i'd have seen it. What way did it pan out for you.
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Old 09-02-10, 17:45   #6
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LOL. Figured it was a 50-50 game and only wanted the dog for the value. Hawkins is only a few places below Williams in the rankings....

So... Williams won 3-0 naturally. Ironically at least 5 lays offered or lays asked for, which weren't taken/given have all lost on me. Few bullets dodged there.
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Old 09-02-10, 17:50   #7
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LOL. Figured it was a 50-50 game and only wanted the dog for the value. Hawkins is only a few places below Williams in the rankings....

So... Williams won 3-0 naturally. Ironically at least 5 lays offered or lays asked for, which weren't taken/given have all lost on me. Few bullets dodged there.
It would be just my luck that i missed out on a win today
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Old 07-03-10, 18:15   #8
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Looking for some value in the final qualifying round of the snooker World Champs. The only player i see really overpriced is Joe Swail @ 11/8 v Ken. Ken's had a bad time of it lately and has dropped to 44 in the rankings while Swail is 22 and has a couple of WC semi finals under his belt. Would love to see Ken get through but i think Swail is a big price.

The only other non-faves i might back are Green @ evens v McLoad and i might have a flutter on Zhang @ 3/1 v Walden. Walden's up to 20 in the World, but the Chinese are coming through thick and fast the last 2 seasons. Zhangs beaten John Parrott and Andrew Higginson in the last 2 rounds and if he gets an early lead against Walden, he might be able to hold onto it.

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Old 07-03-10, 18:29   #9
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The bet that stands out to me there Tony is Martin Gould at Evs to beat Nigel bond. Cracking bet imo
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Old 08-03-10, 01:11   #10
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Originally Posted by Flushdraw View Post
Looking for some value in the final qualifying round of the snooker World Champs. The only player i see really overpriced is Joe Swail @ 11/8 v Ken. Ken's had a bad time of it lately and has dropped to 44 in the rankings while Swail is 22 and has a couple of WC semi finals under his belt. Would love to see Ken get through but i think Swail is a big price.

The only other non-faves i might back are Green @ evens v McLoad and i might have a flutter on Zhang @ 3/1 v Walden. Walden's up to 20 in the World, but the Chinese are coming through thick and fast the last 2 seasons. Zhangs beaten John Parrott and Andrew Higginson in the last 2 rounds and if he gets an early lead against Walden, he might be able to hold onto it.


Hi Tony,
I just wrote a hugely long post why you shouldnt back joe swail, and It disappeared as i posted it!!!
Simply, I think ken is Nailed on at 4/7 to win his match, and I think davy Morris is terrific value at 2/1 to beat Ml Holt.

Im leaving the club now, but ill write it up again when i get home my reasons why.

Connie
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Old 08-03-10, 01:31   #11
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yeah i agree the young irish lad morris is good value @2s
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Old 08-03-10, 04:01   #12
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Right Tony, here we go.

You rightly say Joe is ranked 22 and Ken is 44. That is on the ranking they both had at the start of the current season. But thats not reliable really and I'll try and explain why:

1-That ranking was decided by the players performances over the previous 2 seasons. Ken had a rotten year in 2008/2009 that dropped him to 44 in the rankings.

2- On the current 2 year rankings, 2009/2010, (with only the China Open and the WC ranking points to be added, (theses are the rankings the players will start next season with), Joe is ranked 38 with 18,134pts, and Ken is ranked 29th with 20,854 pts.

3-On the 1 year rankings (just tournaments played in the 2009/2010 season, they also keep a 1 year ranking list. Here Ken is ranked as high as 9 with 13,060 pts, while Joe is ranked down at 59, with 6,215 pts.

4-Some other facts and figures from this season that might surprise you:

96 professionals in total

a- Ken has 33 x 50+ breaks this season, in 19th position,
Joe has 10 x 50+ breaks this season, in 79th position.

b- Ken has 3 century breaks this season, in 38th position.
Joe has 0 century breaks this season, in 93rd place.

c- In frame %'s of frames won out of frames played,
Ken is 15th with 55.85%
Joe is 86th with 38.78%

d- In frame scoring averages:
Ken is 14th with an average of 53.88pts
Joe is 61st with an average of 48.06pts.

What these figures say is simple really. Joe is having a horrendous season and his confidence is completely shot. On the other hand, Ken has been rejuvinated this season after a brutal 2008/2009. Joe will be under all kinds of pressure. They've both been there and done that, (as you say, Joe has 2 x semis to his name at the WC's, but Ken has two finals to his name, with 1 win. If Joe loses here, he will be in real danger next year of losing his top 64 spot after this season, so the pressure on him is huge. I think Ken is a shoe-in for this match mostly because of all the facts and figures above, but also because I know Ken well, and I know the hunger still burns inside him. He wants this badly, and I cant see him failing. Ken is 8/15 with Powers, and 4/7 with Boyles, and he's a max bet in my book.

As for the Davy Morris match versus Ml Holt, well, thats more of a personnal oppinion, but there are also some facts to back it up. Holt is a tilt monster, and if things go against him, he's guaranteed to tilt. tilt is bad in poker, but its just as bad in snooker. And in a best of 19 frame match, I'm pretty sure tilt will arrive at some stage. Holt has dropped from 24th to 44th on the 1 year ranking list (this season only), so a poor season for him. Davy Morris is a professional for 3 years now, but its only this year he's starting to find his feet. He was probably the besy young amatuer player to have ever come out of Ireland, but when he turned pro 3 years ago, he tho ught he had it made, took his foot off the pedal, and only his natural talent kept him high enough to sta in the pro ranks. This year he is 21 years old and seems to have matured a good bit. He's had some good results and if he takes his "A" game to the table today, I can see him winning this. I'm not just pumping up an Irishman with blind faith, I have a few quid invested in him for todays match, and thats because i think he'll win it. Not a max bet, but have a little for interest.

Now after all that, I'll probably have all kinds of egg on my face tomorrow!!
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Old 08-03-10, 09:29   #13
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Quote:
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The bet that stands out to me there Tony is Martin Gould at Evs to beat Nigel bond. Cracking bet imo

Nigel Bond is a tough nut to crack when it come3s to WC time. he has huge experience, just like Steve davis, and look at what he did yesterday. If Davis had played Gunnell in prestatyn where all the qualifiers are played, and in a best of 9 qualifier, Ive no doubt but that he would have lost. But I fancied him on his experience alone. You just cant quantify hoiw much that means in this championship. Davis beat him 10-4 and thats his first match winning this season.

On the 1 year rankings which is the most up to date, Bond is ranked much higher than Gould, and has twice as many 50+ breaks. I dont fanch Bond enough to back him, but i certainly wouldnt be backing against him.

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Old 08-03-10, 17:06   #14
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Ken won 10-1 and Gould is winning 8-4.

Good shout on the Ken confidence Connie.
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Old 08-03-10, 19:34   #15
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Ken won 10-1 and Gould is winning 8-4.

Good shout on the Ken confidence Connie.
Gould won 10-4, tyvm
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Old 08-03-10, 20:37   #16
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Originally Posted by Howard_Finkel View Post
Gould won 10-4, tyvm


Nice call, I just couldnt back that match with any confidence. I heard goulds interview afterwards, he reckoned its the best he's played during his career, said he never missed a long ball. Thats a good sign of him under that kind of pressure.

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Old 08-03-10, 20:41   #17
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Ken won 10-1 and Gould is winning 8-4.

Good shout on the Ken confidence Connie.
yep, he was a stomping bet today. (mind you, you wouldnt have backed him 12 months ago), amazing how much a role confidence plays in a professional sportsman. (or lack of it in joes case).

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Old 08-03-10, 21:06   #18
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Originally Posted by connie147 View Post
Right Tony, here we go.

You rightly say Joe is ranked 22 and Ken is 44. That is on the ranking they both had at the start of the current season. But thats not reliable really and I'll try and explain why:

1-That ranking was decided by the players performances over the previous 2 seasons. Ken had a rotten year in 2008/2009 that dropped him to 44 in the rankings.

2- On the current 2 year rankings, 2009/2010, (with only the China Open and the WC ranking points to be added, (theses are the rankings the players will start next season with), Joe is ranked 38 with 18,134pts, and Ken is ranked 29th with 20,854 pts.

3-On the 1 year rankings (just tournaments played in the 2009/2010 season, they also keep a 1 year ranking list. Here Ken is ranked as high as 9 with 13,060 pts, while Joe is ranked down at 59, with 6,215 pts.

4-Some other facts and figures from this season that might surprise you:

96 professionals in total

a- Ken has 33 x 50+ breaks this season, in 19th position,
Joe has 10 x 50+ breaks this season, in 79th position.

b- Ken has 3 century breaks this season, in 38th position.
Joe has 0 century breaks this season, in 93rd place.

c- In frame %'s of frames won out of frames played,
Ken is 15th with 55.85%
Joe is 86th with 38.78%

d- In frame scoring averages:
Ken is 14th with an average of 53.88pts
Joe is 61st with an average of 48.06pts.

What these figures say is simple really. Joe is having a horrendous season and his confidence is completely shot. On the other hand, Ken has been rejuvinated this season after a brutal 2008/2009. Joe will be under all kinds of pressure. They've both been there and done that, (as you say, Joe has 2 x semis to his name at the WC's, but Ken has two finals to his name, with 1 win. If Joe loses here, he will be in real danger next year of losing his top 64 spot after this season, so the pressure on him is huge. I think Ken is a shoe-in for this match mostly because of all the facts and figures above, but also because I know Ken well, and I know the hunger still burns inside him. He wants this badly, and I cant see him failing. Ken is 8/15 with Powers, and 4/7 with Boyles, and he's a max bet in my book.

As for the Davy Morris match versus Ml Holt, well, thats more of a personnal oppinion, but there are also some facts to back it up. Holt is a tilt monster, and if things go against him, he's guaranteed to tilt. tilt is bad in poker, but its just as bad in snooker. And in a best of 19 frame match, I'm pretty sure tilt will arrive at some stage. Holt has dropped from 24th to 44th on the 1 year ranking list (this season only), so a poor season for him. Davy Morris is a professional for 3 years now, but its only this year he's starting to find his feet. He was probably the besy young amatuer player to have ever come out of Ireland, but when he turned pro 3 years ago, he tho ught he had it made, took his foot off the pedal, and only his natural talent kept him high enough to sta in the pro ranks. This year he is 21 years old and seems to have matured a good bit. He's had some good results and if he takes his "A" game to the table today, I can see him winning this. I'm not just pumping up an Irishman with blind faith, I have a few quid invested in him for todays match, and thats because i think he'll win it. Not a max bet, but have a little for interest.

Now after all that, I'll probably have all kinds of egg on my face tomorrow!!
Great post Connie. I wasn't online at all today and didn't see it until know. I've been out of the snooker loop for about 2 years now, and only following it sparcely. I didn't realise things were so bad for Swail, and that Ken was pretty much on a heater.

You definelty would have convinced me to put my tank on Ken! Shame i didnt see your post before then because you're a man in the know.

God shout by Finkel on Gould. I also thought Bond would be a tough nut to crack in the WC. Was in 2 minds about Trump being such a short price too.

Meh no money lost, no money gained!
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Old 08-03-10, 21:37   #19
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Well, I'm up a few quid from this years c/ships already, not a life changing sum or anything, but the 2 Davis's, Mark and Steve, Wembo,Fergal and Ken have done me favours so far. Two losing bets on Morris and Drago stopped me having a bumper start to it this year, but I'm happy so far
Having a good look at tomorrows games, but i dont really see anything that sticks out. too many ifs and buts for me. Still looking though, cause i'm a gambler!! But I'd say no bet.

I'll wait now until the 1st round proper in Sheffield. I await the draw of the 16 qualifiers against the top 16 with interest.

Connie
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Old 08-03-10, 21:39   #20
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I'll wait now until the 1st round proper in Sheffield. I await the draw of the 16 qualifiers against the top 16 with interest.

Connie

I think I speak for everyone when I say to keep the analysis coming Connie.
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