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Should I be shoving?

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    Should I be shoving?

    I was playing a live local tourney but due to numbers it played more like a live SNG. We get down to 3 handed with only the top two being paid.
    500-1000-100 level
    My stack ~32k
    Villan ~39k
    Player 1 ~20k

    Player 1 folds his btn, i open to 2.5k with K10cc, Villan 3bets to 8.2k, I shove

    Me and villan have played a lot together and i know that he is a fairly solid/good player but a bit on the tight side. A couple of orbits earlier I had already opened/4bet all in and he insta mucked. He also knows I am capable of shoving pretty light. It seemed he had started to open up when we got 3 handed, which was unusual for him.

    Is my shove a little too light vs this type of player?

    #2
    I don't hate it, not a bad hand to do it with, got a blocker and you'll rarely be in terrible shape.

    Problem is I don't think he folds much given image and history. Average live player doesn't 3bet super light and they don't like folding.

    I just fold here and pick on the short stack.

    Comment


      #3
      I'd just fold here. Think you have a bit too much to be getting it in with K10, esp on the bubble with another shorter stack in play. Don't really like his 3 bet sizing either, seems a bit big/committing. He shouldn't be folding to your shove, given the size of his raise.

      Comment


        #4
        Doubt he 3b/f much after 3.5x sizing and we're never ahead when he calls. Trivial fold coming in 2/3 on bubble
        "c'est en faisant n'importe quoi qu'on devient n'importe qui"

        Comment


          #5
          Don't like the shove at all.
          He isn't Investing 1/4 effective stack and folding often.
          You lose a tiny amount of equity by giving yo the 2.5k. But lose a lot more when called (including when we take the pot pre)
          In terms of €€€ its an even greater loss.

          Comment


            #6
            My thinking in the hand was that he had already 3bet/folded to me and could well be doing the same again. Also I was thinking he would have to have a fairly decent range to call my shove soemthing like 77+,AJ+.

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by Winning! View Post
              Doubt he 3b/f much after 3.5x sizing and we're never ahead when he calls. Trivial fold coming in 2/3 on bubble
              He had already 3bet/folded to me with the same bet sizing and im aware that Im never going to be ahead when he calls but the hand stacks up well against his range as im going to have at least 25-30% equity except for when he has AA and KK

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by andyw1291 View Post
                He had already 3bet/folded to me with the same bet sizing and im aware that Im never going to be ahead when he calls but the hand stacks up well against his range as im going to have at least 25-30% equity except for when he has AA and KK
                having 25/30% equity is the reason we should fold! Don't think he's folding much here to make it worth your while. Also seen as you 4bet previous, he's less likely to 3bet light.

                Were yee 3handed last time he folded to your 4bet? Just wasn't clear on that.

                Fold and wait for a better spot imo.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by andyw1291 View Post
                  He had already 3bet/folded to me with the same bet sizing and im aware that Im never going to be ahead when he calls but the hand stacks up well against his range as im going to have at least 25-30% equity except for when he has AA and KK
                  while your logic is ok, but I'm no ICM expert but shoving here is teribad imo given stack sizes of all 3 players (and i'm a serial bubbler!)

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by tglynn View Post
                    having 25/30% equity is the reason we should fold! Don't think he's folding much here to make it worth your while. Also seen as you 4bet previous, he's less likely to 3bet light.

                    Were yee 3handed last time he folded to your 4bet? Just wasn't clear on that.

                    Fold and wait for a better spot imo.
                    Yeah we were 3handed last time i 4bet shoved

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by andyw1291 View Post
                      Yeah we were 3handed last time i 4bet shoved
                      ya then i don't see many regs 3 betting light here with the fear you will shove. Because we know he can't 3bet light, he can adjust and 3bet light but most regs won't think this deep and will be afraid to do so. I think he has 99+, AJs+ here almost always and committed to calling it off.

                      Cliffs: fold unless you're in a leveling war with the guy

                      Comment


                        #12
                        $Equity if you fold IS 34% , or about 2nd place money.
                        $Equity if you get through is 41%. And if you are called and win its becomes 55%

                        So we play around with that to see how often you need to get through to make it +EV.
                        If we have 33% on average when he calls, we need to get through 70% to make shoving +EV
                        Even if we are 40% verses his calling range (we never are), we need to get through 63% of the time.

                        He doesn't fold 70% of his 3bet range here. We simply lose too much too often to make this a good shove. Plus, folding is a zero variance option. Shoving is high variance.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by Mellor View Post
                          $Equity if you fold IS 34% , or about 2nd place money.
                          $Equity if you get through is 41%. And if you are called and win its becomes 55%

                          So we play around with that to see how often you need to get through to make it +EV.
                          If we have 33% on average when he calls, we need to get through 70% to make shoving +EV
                          Even if we are 40% verses his calling range (we never are), we need to get through 63% of the time.

                          He doesn't fold 70% of his 3bet range here. We simply lose too much too often to make this a good shove. Plus, folding is a zero variance option. Shoving is high variance.
                          Where does the 55% equity come from when we get called and win?

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Our equity stake in the prizepool. I used an ICM calculator to calculate it. I had to make an assumption that the first place was twice the 2nd place. But its prob around that mark, maybe up to 70/30.
                            In the hand above, if you get called and win you'll end up with 65k or so. The other stacks being 20k and 7k. That works out as a 55% stake in the prizepool.

                            It's bubble hands like this that expose the difference in chip equity and $ equity. Say the prizes are $250 for 2nd and $500 for 1st. The max you can win is 2/3rds of the prizepool. Even with 99% of the chips in play, you equity is only 66%.

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