Football-betting thread

[Reaps]

Anyone want to lay me Spurs $40 @ 11/2

[Flushdraw]

Think Draw/Arsenal HT/FT @ 7/2 is a decent bet along with over 2.5 goals @ 4/7

Think the fact Spurs haven't beaten any of the Big 4 away from home in 68 games still plays on their mind, and Arsenal can go top for a couple of hours if they win.

4/6 is a pretty big price on Arsenal. Hope it's an entertaining game!

[The C Kid]

Not really, Spurs never beat Arsenal away. Nine losses and seven draws since their last pl win in 93 . Could be a little value in the draw but I'm staying clear of the game. I do think it's the best footballing derby in Europe though so no need for a bet to enjoy the game!

Edit Huddlestone is injured too, major negative from Spurs perspective.

People don't realise how important Tom is.

We've played 13 games without him in the last two years, and have managed to only win three, all of which came in a 7 day period at the end of last season when we beat Fulham, Blackburn, and Stoke. This season we are 0/5 without him, with only a draw to our name. What's even worse is that some of our worst performances this year, have been without him. We find it very hard to keep possession when he doesn't play.

Without him, Modric is much more ineffective, having to drop deeper to get the ball, which in turn slows the ball up even more when getting to Bale.

I've said for about a year that he's our most important player, and unfortunately I think I'll be proved right over the next three months which will probably see an end on our top four ambitions.

[The C Kid]

Think Draw/Arsenal HT/FT @ 7/2 is a decent bet along with over 2.5 goals @ 4/7

Think the fact Spurs haven't beaten any of the Big 4 away from home in 68 games still plays on their mind, and Arsenal can go top for a couple of hours if they win.

4/6 is a pretty big price on Arsenal. Hope it's an entertaining game!

You can get bigger than 4/6! Shop around.

[The Situation]

Arsenal are an absolute certainty. Biggest soccer bet of the year so far for me.

I'd have them priced up as a 1/2 shot.

hmmm maybe your right
http://www.bettify.com/data/match/En...ham/2010-11-20

[Straddle]

Under 2.5 goals


Chievo-Inter
Parma-Lazio
Genoa-Juventus
Catania-Bari
Napoli-Bologna
Fulham-Man City
Lens-Lyon
Brescia-Cagliari
Osasuna-Gijon
Cesena-Palermo
AC Arles-Bordeaux


Pints!!

[kaiser soze]

You can get bigger than 4/6! Shop around.

epic fall in the second half by arsenal ,and spurs were shocking first half ul.

[The C Kid]

The Man City backers are back, one result last week, and they're looking to jump off the cliff again.

Crazy price.

[Straddle]

Here is a few bets for the weekend. I'll do up a running total next week.


Under 2.5 Goals:
Sampdoria v Bari (1.57) - Sunday
Nice v Marseille (1.57) - Sunday
Cesena v Bologna (1.57) - Sunday
Fiorentina v Cagliari (1.57) - Sunday

Over 2.5 Goals:
Schalke v Bayern Munich (1.72) - Saturday
Freiburg v Hamburg (1.8) - Saturday


Winner:
Villarreal (1.83) v Sevilla - Sunday
Sunderland (1.83) v West Ham - Sunday
Bayern Leverkusen (1.4) v Koln - Sunday
Nurnberg v Borussia Dortmund (1.61) - Sunday
Osasuna v Barcelona (1.22) - Saturday


Paddy Power Prices

[The Situation]

Blackburn look very solid at 4/5 today. Wolves have lost seven away games on the bounce. Allardyce teams are usually very good at home and I see them putting on a big performance in reaction to the drubbing they got at Old Trafford last weekend.

Considering laying Chelsea too but can't pull the trigger. Only one win in their last seven meetings with Everton. Both teams in very poor form, kinda feel like Everton's game suits playing against the bigger teams these days, ie get more space to create on the break, wheras they're finding it hard to break down teams who park the bus, plenty of possesion but lacking a clincal striker to convert their domination of games into goals. Chelsea do have Essien and Terry back today though. Opinions??

[The C Kid]

Blackburn are solid yeah, agree with all your points. Pedersen in superb form too, and they rested his last week to make sure he'd be fit for today. Diouf back as well. Unbeaten in last sic with Wolves.

Expect Chelsea to smash Everton today tbh. No Arteta and Jagielka struggling. Chelsea by three or four imo.

[Raheny Red]

Chelsea to wallop them tbh. I may plough into an Arsenal/Chelsea double.

[Semibluff]

like overs wolves game

[Eggie]

My bets today: (hope posting here doesnt change my luck for the worse)

Blackburn, Coventry, Derby - 2pt Treble - 8.51 (PP)

Over 2.5 goals - M'gladbach v Hannover, Frieburg v Hamburg, Wolfsburg v W Bremen - 4pts - 4.86 (BDAQ)

Half Time Draws - Man City v Bolton, Chievo v Roma - 3pts - 4.88 (BDAQ)

Mainz - 3pts - 3.00 (PP)
Frieburg - 3pts - 2.8 (PP)
Mainz, Frieburg - 2pt Double - 8.96 (PP)


Levante v Ath Madrid - both to score
Arles v Nancy - Over 2.5
3pts Double - 3.39 (PP)

20 pts Total outlay.

[Eggie]

Blackburn look very solid at 4/5 today. Wolves have lost seven away games on the bounce. Allardyce teams are usually very good at home and I see them putting on a big performance in reaction to the drubbing they got at Old Trafford last weekend.

Considering laying Chelsea too but can't pull the trigger. Only one win in their last seven meetings with Everton. Both teams in very poor form, kinda feel like Everton's game suits playing against the bigger teams these days, ie get more space to create on the break, wheras they're finding it hard to break down teams who park the bus, plenty of possesion but lacking a clincal striker to convert their domination of games into goals. Chelsea do have Essien and Terry back today though. Opinions??

I'd stay away, two temperamental performers, guessing game. Chelsea should improve considering the return of Terry and Essien but I certainly wouldn't be betting them at the price given recent form. Everton are hot and cold, hard to know what mood their in....good luck.

[Eggie]

My bets today: (hope posting here doesnt change my luck for the worse)

Blackburn, Coventry, Derby - 2pt Treble - 8.51 (PP)

Over 2.5 goals - M'gladbach v Hannover, Frieburg v Hamburg, Wolfsburg v W Bremen - 4pts - 4.86 (BDAQ)

Half Time Draws - Man City v Bolton, Chievo v Roma - 3pts - 4.88 (BDAQ)

Mainz - 3pts - 3.00 (PP)
Frieburg - 3pts - 2.8 (PP)
Mainz, Frieburg - 2pt Double - 8.96 (PP)


Levante v Ath Madrid - both to score
Arles v Nancy - Over 2.5
3pts Double - 3.39 (PP)

20 pts Total outlay.

-11.6 pts

[The Situation]

Everyone should get stuck into Villarreal at home to Seville at 6 this evening. Villarreal have won all but 1 home game domestically and in Europe, the only non-win was a draw with Valencia. Most of these have been by a two or more goal margin. Seville have lost their last 3, are missing a load of players including Fabianno and Navas who are vital to the team. They've also been on their travels in Europe midweek wheras Villarreal are pretty much full strength and had an easy home win in Europe. I'm in on the outright an -1 markets.

[Eggie]

Had Villareal along with Sunderland, Espanyol and Fiorentina for an 11/1 accum.

Was afraid to post it cause it corbed me yesterday.

+11.71 pts for today, recouperated for yesterday.



EDIT: Posted off top of my head earlier, was just in from pub :

Final result for the day was +18.69 pts for yesterday, Fiorentina single also. Didnt have a four timer, was 2 separate doubles - Espanyol & Villareal, Sunderland & Fiorentina.

[Eggie]

Monday Football

Tonights footie bets:

Deportivo 4pts 2.23 (BDAQ)

Deportivo, Liverpool, Napoli - 2pt treble 7.22 (BDAQ)

Over 2.5 Goals - Liverpool v A Villa, Napoli v Palermo - 3pt double 3.73 (BDAQ)

[The Situation]

I've layed Napoli FWIW Eggie. Palermo are a point behind them in the league but that's a false position IMO. They've only recently got Miccoli back in the team and they look a complete outfit now and I be surprised if they don't make the champions league positions if they manage to keep their players in January. Before Miccoli came back they had an abbundance of creative talent with Pastore and Illicic but nobody to finish the chances. Napoli have been very good too but Evens is far too short even with home advantage. I do really like the overs in the game though.

Also stop backing accumulators!

[Dice75]

Any opinions on Newcastle job?

Have done O'Leary as a fun bet (80/1) but why is Pardew so short.
Don't think O'Neill would take it personally.
Have to rule out Shearer, Keegan & Kinnear.
Bilic would rather West Ham.
Leaves Curbishley at 7's as value?

[Straddle]

I'm on deportivo as well. It will come down to the defense and if they can control trezeguet and Valdez but seeing as they are rivaling barca in that department and in good recent form with the forwards being rotated to take advantage of hercules slow back four I will get on deportivo at 2.2.


I dont think napoli offer good value at evens. Palermo DNB @ 3.2 with victor chandler is a far better bet imo.


Paddy power have an offer on that if liverpool lead at any time and fail to win that they will refund bets up to E100 on correct score and scorecast and first/last scorer so it offers good value as it should be a low scoring game, 1-0 to the pool is a nice bet.

[Keane]

Paddy power have an offer on that if liverpool lead at any time and fail to win that they will refund bets up to E100 on correct score and scorecast and first/last scorer so it offers good value as it should be a low scoring game, 1-0 to the pool is a nice bet.

Nice one - thanks for the heads up

[Wesley Harms]

Nice one - thanks for the heads up

Went for 1-0 Villa imo
die keane assassinate

[Straddle]

Any opinions on Newcastle job?

Have done O'Leary as a fun bet (80/1) but why is Pardew so short.
Don't think O'Neill would take it personally.
Have to rule out Shearer, Keegan & Kinnear.
Bilic would rather West Ham.
Leaves Curbishley at 7's as value?

Martin Jol resigned from Ajax tonight, coincidence?

[Keane]

went for 1-0 villa imo
die keane assassinate

fuuuuuu!

[Eggie]

Tonights footie bets:

Deportivo 4pts 2.23 (BDAQ)

Deportivo, Liverpool, Napoli - 2pt treble 7.22 (BDAQ)

Over 2.5 Goals - Liverpool v A Villa, Napoli v Palermo - 3pt double 3.73 (BDAQ)

+13.57 pts (after deducting commission)

[Eggie]

Tuesday Football

Twente v Spurs - Over 2.5 - 3pts 1.9 (BDAQ)


OVER 2.5:
Twente v Spurs
Benfica v Schalke

3pts Double 3.4 (BDAQ)

[Dice75]

Champions League 5 Fold Accumulator -

Barcelona v R.Kazan
Copenhagen v P'kos
Lyon v H. Tel Aviv

Real Madrid v Auxerre
AC Milan v Ajax

Pays 13/2 approx - any negatives?????

Or should last games in group stages be avoided ???

Also, fun money on a Rooney/Defoe 1st scorer double @ 26/1

[Eggie]

Twente v Spurs - Over 2.5 - 3pts 1.9 (BDAQ)


OVER 2.5:
Twente v Spurs
Benfica v Schalke

3pts Double 3.4 (BDAQ)

+9.41 pts (after deducting commission)

[Eggie]

Wednesday Football

Bayern Munich
Shaktar Donetsk

3 pts double - 2.32 (BDAQ)

[Keane]

How are you picking the over/under 2.5s Eggie?

[Eggie]

combination of:

stats analysis programme
odds compilation using stats, to compare against market
judgement/instinct (team news, etc)

[The C Kid]

Where are you from Eggie? Not Sligo? If you don't mind answering obviously

[Keane]

combination of:

stats analysis programme
odds compilation using stats, to compare against market
judgement/instinct (team news, etc)

Straddle has a fairly detailed algorithm he uses, the two of you should probably compare notes and see if there's anything in either of your models that would benefit the other...

[Eggie]

Where are you from Eggie? Not Sligo? If you don't mind answering obviously

Tyrone, been living in Dublin last ten years though. Girlfriend from Sligo so I be around there every month or two.

[The C Kid]

Tyrone, been living in Dublin last ten years though. Girlfriend from Sligo so I be around there every month or two.

Ah no worries, I know another lad with the same nickname who does similar bets, thought it might be him!

Best of luck with the punts.

[Keane]

Thoughts on Spartak DNB at 6/4 versus Zilina?

Seems generous no?

Zilina being a bad side with nothing to play for while Spartak are still in with a shout of reaching the last 16...

EDIT: Spartak can't make the last 16 afterall in fact, but I'm still tempted considering a fairly average Marseille side put 7 past Zilina with Zilina at home in the last round...

[Semibluff]

im on spartak DnB
unders chelsea
opposing chelsea in the 2.75 hc

[Straddle]

Selections for this weekend:



Friday:

Heracles v VVV Venlo - over 2.5 goals – 1.67
Greuther Furth to beat Rot-Weiss Oberhausen – 1.44
Karlsruher to beat Arminia Bielefeld – 1.57

Saturday:

Celtic v Kilmarnock – over 2.5 goals – 1.5
Piacenza v Livorno – over 2.5 goals – 2.2
Frosinone v Novara – over 2.5 goals – 2.1
Pescara v Vicenza – over 2.5 goals – 2.1
Aston Villa v West Brom – over 2.5 goals – 1.75
Rapid Vienna to beat FC Wacker – 1.5
Hearts to beat Aberdeen – 1.57
Hoffenheim to beat Nurnberg – 1.62
Kapfenberger to beat LASK Linz – 1.73

[Guest]

Selections for this weekend:



Friday:

Heracles v VVV Venlo - over 2.5 goals – 1.67
Greuther Furth to beat Rot-Weiss Oberhausen – 1.44
Karlsruher to beat Arminia Bielefeld – 1.57

Saturday:

Celtic v Kilmarnock – over 2.5 goals – 1.5
Piacenza v Livorno – over 2.5 goals – 2.2
Frosinone v Novara – over 2.5 goals – 2.1
Pescara v Vicenza – over 2.5 goals – 2.1
Aston Villa v West Brom – over 2.5 goals – 1.75
Rapid Vienna to beat FC Wacker – 1.5
Hearts to beat Aberdeen – 1.57
Hoffenheim to beat Nurnberg – 1.62
Kapfenberger to beat LASK Linz – 1.73

I would love to know how you are picking these

[Eggie]

Bayern Munich
Shaktar Donetsk

3 pts double - 2.32 (BDAQ)

+3.76 pts

[Eggie]

Friday Football

Hannover - 3pts - 2.55 (BDAQ)

------------------------------------

Over 2.5 - Hannover v Stuttgart
Under 2.5 - Swansea v Millwall

3 pts double - 2.97 (BDAQ)

------------------------------------

[Keane]

From a betting point of view Alan Pardew is a great signing for Newcastle. Newcastle's next 4 fixtures are:

Liverpool (h)
Birmingham (a)
Man City (h)
Spurs (a)

Newcastle are currently only 4 points ahead of the relegation zone. You can get a best price 5/1 on Newcastle to be relegated, they could quite easily get 0,1 point from those fixtures and the 5/1 will be long gone and should represent a good opportunity to trade off.

.

[Eggie]

Saturday Football

Full Time
Dortmund
Hoffenheim

5 pts Double - 2.65 (BDAQ)
---------------------------------
Over 2.5
Hoffenheim v Nurnberg

4pts 1.8 (BDAQ)
---------------------------------
Over 2.5
Hoffenheim v Nurnberg
Hamburg v Leverkusen
Cologne v Frankfurt

3pts treble 6.46 (BDAQ)
---------------------------------
Draw
Fulham v Sunderland
Valenciennes v PSG

1pt double 9.75 (PP)
---------------------------------
Full Time
Lorient

3pts 2.00 (BDAQ)
---------------------------------

Full Time
Lorient
Brest

2pts Double 4.7 (BDAQ)
---------------------------------
Both To Score
Arles v Lille
Valencienne v PSG
Middsbro v Cardiff

2pts Treble 6.01 (PP)



TOTAL OUTLAY 20pts

[BallymoreChris]

Really think Liverpool will hammer Newcastle.
I know you can never trust the pool away from home but its turmoil in Newcastle.

23/20 with vc

[Percy007]

Really think Liverpool will hammer Newcastle.
I know you can never trust the pool away from home but its turmoil in Newcastle.

23/20 with vc

Enhanced odds double of Master Minded and Liverpool @ 3/1 on PP.

[Keane]

From a betting point of view Alan Pardew is a great signing for Newcastle. Newcastle's next 4 fixtures are:

Liverpool (h)
Birmingham (a)
Man City (h)
Spurs (a)

Newcastle are currently only 4 points ahead of the relegation zone. You can get a best price 5/1 on Newcastle to be relegated, they could quite easily get 0,1 point from those fixtures and the 5/1 will be long gone and should represent a good opportunity to trade off.

On this - just finally got my Betfair account set up.

Want to make sure I'm doing it correctly - I back Newcastle to be relegated at 5/1 with the expectation that they will shorten over the next four games, say to 4/1.

Assuming they come in to 4/1 I then lay the bet for (5/4)*original_bet...

Is that correct?

[Eggie]

Hannover - 3pts - 2.55 (BDAQ)

------------------------------------

Over 2.5 - Hannover v Stuttgart
Under 2.5 - Swansea v Millwall

3 pts double - 2.97 (BDAQ)

------------------------------------

+10.03 pts (after deducting commission)

[Eggie]

Full Time
Dortmund
Hoffenheim

5 pts Double - 2.65 (BDAQ)
---------------------------------
Over 2.5
Hoffenheim v Nurnberg

4pts 1.8 (BDAQ)
---------------------------------
Over 2.5
Hoffenheim v Nurnberg
Hamburg v Leverkusen
Cologne v Frankfurt

3pts treble 6.46 (BDAQ)
---------------------------------
Draw
Fulham v Sunderland
Valenciennes v PSG

1pt double 9.75 (PP)
---------------------------------
Full Time
Lorient

3pts 2.00 (BDAQ)
---------------------------------

Full Time
Lorient
Brest

2pts Double 4.7 (BDAQ)
---------------------------------
Both To Score
Arles v Lille
Valencienne v PSG
Middsbro v Cardiff

2pts Treble 6.01 (PP)



TOTAL OUTLAY 20pts

-14.18 pts

[kaiser soze]

Really think Liverpool will hammer Newcastle.
I know you can never trust the pool away from home but its turmoil in Newcastle.

23/20 with vc

Ur right about the turmoil but its in the pool camp,shocking how bad they are away from home.Torres gone imo no interest at all.

[Wesley Harms]

Bolton is the weekends banker imo

[The C Kid]

Spurs price is completely bizarre. I know I'm a fan but it's crazy even after the adjustments for team news.

[Dice75]

Defoe good value at 6's for first scorer?
Money down anyhow.

Good stream anyone?

[Guest]

Spurs price is completely bizarre. I know I'm a fan but it's crazy even after the adjustments for team news.

& because of that

Pav looks a decent price at 8/1 first goal

As for backing spurs with the 2 at the back, Chelski are due a performance... whatever that means

*ooh fwiw I like Bassong and Dawson but are either properly fit was the question

[Guest]

easy game this betting lark

[Guest]

Was considering Arsenal at 7/2 V's Utd
but

Don't fancy Arsenal CB's
Keeper league debut
Arsenal wide midfield players don't track back

so
First goal
2pts Nani @8/1
.5 pts Anderson @25/1

[TheProfitablePunter]

Weekend Selection: St Etienne to beat Arles @ 1.4

In a weekend where there will be many a coupon buster the banker pick has to be St Etienne even considering their poor run in the last few games.


St Etienne has played 8 France Ligue 1 matches this season on Stade Geoffroy Guichard. On home ground St Etienne has won 3, drawn 4 and lost 1 matches. This ranks Les Pantheres (The Panthers) 11th in home team performance in the France Ligue 1.

Arles has played 8 France Ligue 1 matches this season away from home. On away ground Arles has won 0, drawn 2 and lost 6 matches. This ranks Les Lions (The Lions) 20th in away team performance in the France Ligue 1.

Prediction: 2-0

[bohsman]

Should I be lumping on a Lolerpool/Arsenal double at 2/1?

[Percy007]

Cant see Liverpool game going ahead, they have had a lot of snow this evening and no sign of a let up................. some would call that a good result for us