RUBGY WORLD CUP

[amberleaf]

might as well kick this one off two things come to mind

1,is there a kink in the kiwis game after getting beaten by austrailia in the tri nations
2,after irelands defeats in the warm up games,what will we be up against when we face them in a few weeks time

[amberleaf]

pool c is
australia
ireland
italy
russia
u.s.a.

just a quick glance at the betting in irelands pool,ireland -35 pts v usa,ireland + 11pts v australia,are the only ones up.at this early stage the australia - 11 pts looks tempting,i think a few weeks ago the australia match was the key one,now perhaps the ireland v italy game to ensure ireland getting into the next round(more than likely to face s.africa,outside chance of meeting wales)might be the one declan kidney will work towards,if this is the case than australia -11 PTS might be worth a decent bet,wouldnt lump on just yet but one to keep an eye on,also the scotland v georgia match is another one to look at,dont think georgia will win it but depending on the hcp,might be worth a few quid,have to wait untill just before the game to see the teams,but georgia boss richie dixon will surly have this game in mind,and with the huge pack they have,think they might beat the hcp on this one!

[Warper]

I think i'll back USA +35 pts against us. Really cant see us doing well in the WC at all. Just no creativity.

[LuckyLloyd]

I think i'll back USA +35 pts against us. Really cant see us doing well in the WC at all. Just no creativity.

Game is on September 11 too. I think the US will keep the score down on the day due to their physical commitment alone.

[Keane]

A mate of mine suggested Israel Dagg might be value about 12/1 with a few bookies. Don't know much about him so said I'd throw it to the floor...

[amberleaf]

hard nuff one to call imo,the irish lads have a bit to prove now after the warm up matches,and on their day could beat the hcp with some to spare,as it stands might leave this one alone!

[jack90210]

Don't like either side of the 35 point spread much at all. If I had to go with one side it would be Ireland though. Eddie basically said on Newstalk last night that all the USA focus is on the Russia game which is 4 days after the Irish game and he mightn't play the full strength team against us.

[Mellor]

Don't like either side of the 35 point spread much at all. If I had to go with one side it would be Ireland though. Eddie basically said on Newstalk last night that all the USA focus is on the Russia game which is 4 days after the Irish game and he mightn't play the full strength team against us.

Which suggests that he isn't that concerned with USA and will save a full strength team for Australia a week later, reducing the chances of a cricket score and beating the spread.
Eddie isn't interested in the spread, I think people forget that sometimes, he just wants max points.
I can see Ireland winning handy by 24 points

[ArmaniJeans]

Which suggests that he isn't that concerned with USA and will save a full strength team for Australia a week later, reducing the chances of a cricket score and beating the spread.
Eddie isn't interested in the spread, I think people forget that sometimes, he just wants max points.
I can see Ireland winning handy by 24 points

Eddie O'Sullivan is the USA manager this time, so the opposite of what you said would apply.

[Mellor]

lol, brain was obviously off, was yet to have breakfast. For reason, was reading Eddie as Kidney.

But my point still stands, DK knows that EoS is focusing on the russia game, so isn't going out there to needlessly tire players out for the sake of a big score. Australia is less than a week later, and we need to be our best

[amberleaf]

Don't like either side of the 35 point spread much at all. If I had to go with one side it would be Ireland though. Eddie basically said on Newstalk last night that all the USA focus is on the Russia game which is 4 days after the Irish game and he mightn't play the full strength team against us.

you know,when you think about the u.s.a.,(bit of a grudgematch and all) their whole tourny is about beating russia and for a punting point of view,one to keep an eye on,but i still think its better to wait and see what team dk names for the ireland v u.s.a. game,but id reckon the likes of earls could do some damage if he was allowed cut loose,perhaps betting in running might be way forward here,but i still think kidneys focus could have moved from the australia game to the italy game,btw you might see some letters jumbled up at times from me,thats the ould dysixea kicking in,course it should be rugby world cup

[Emmet]

To put the US into context, Japan beat them two weeks back. Look at Japan's spread vs NZ in their opener.

I also personally know one of the US players, he's been playing with Trinity in Div 2 of the AIL this year, but will be starting for the US.

These guys are there for pride and a window of opportunity alone. When I'm off the drug cocktail I'm on till Sunday, I'll do a write up.

[ciarraithuaidh]

To put the US into context, Japan beat them two weeks back. Look at Japan's spread vs NZ in their opener.

I also personally know one of the US players, he's been playing with Trinity in Div 2 of the AIL this year, but will be starting for the US.

These guys are there for pride and a window of opportunity alone. When I'm off the drug cocktail I'm on till Sunday, I'll do a write up.

Japan aren't bad! They have a huge amount of players under residency rules....Plus US were missing Ngwenya and Cleaver (2 best players) plus a few more in that game.

Anyway, I would be staying away from all markets on the 1st game until we see how Ireland come out of the blocks..in-game for the USA game could have some value maybe.

One that i do fancy is Ioane at 12/1 fot top tryscorer..he's likely to score a few in the group games, has a 1/4 final against Wales most likely, which isn't the toughest draw, so is odds on to be playing up to semis and probably even final.

[Emmet]

Japan aren't bad! They have a huge amount of players under residency rules....Plus US were missing Ngwenya and Cleaver (2 best players) plus a few more in that game.

Anyway, I would be staying away from all markets on the 1st game until we see how Ireland come out of the blocks..in-game for the USA game could have some value maybe.

One that i do fancy is Ioane at 12/1 fot top tryscorer..he's likely to score a few in the group games, has a 1/4 final against Wales most likely, which isn't the toughest draw, so is odds on to be playing up to semis and probably even final.

France are +52 vs Japan in first game... Says a lot imo!

Agree with you on the in game markets, I feel that I will have a better chance of spotting good bets by avoiding Irish games tbh, as the heart will pull on the head a lot!

I think the top try scorer bet is interesting, from memory, the winner is almost always someone who's played against Georgia / Japan / US etc in the group games, and put 3/4 tries away against them.

I don't know if an Aus back is the man for me tbh, Italy and Ireland will contain Aus for long periods of the game, and I don't think they'll get over the line very often. France or NZ have very straightforward "minnows" to play in the groups, and could get a host of trys against though, though it is incredibly tough to pick which back 3 will get the most game time for either team. Ioane should be top scorer for Aus though.

(I also fancy a sneaky punt on Aus to lift the trophy)

[amberleaf]

on the 11th sept wales play s.africa,6 days later australia play ireland,if somehow wales beat s.africa they will top the group,which in turn would suit ireland to finish 2nd as they i would think they would rather face wales in the knock out stages,if this comes about than australia-11 could be value there but i would think you would want to back it fairly quickly after the s.africa/wales game,tall order but stranger things have happened!

[ciarraithuaidh]

on the 11th sept wales play s.africa,6 days later australia play ireland,if somehow wales beat s.africa they will top the group,which in turn would suit ireland to finish 2nd as they i would think they would rather face wales in the knock out stages,if this comes about than australia-11 could be value there but i would think you would want to back it fairly quickly after the s.africa/wales game,tall order but stranger things have happened!

There's not a hope in hell of Wales beating the Boks unless the Boks get food poisoning or something. Boks pack will dominate and while they aren't exactly graceful in midfield, Fourie & De Villiers will do enough offensively and defensively to more than match Roberts/Davies...Even the little Ace in the hole Wales used to have in the form of Shane Williams is a shadow of his former self. George North is their best hope for tries, big strong young winger..good man to aim a few cross kicks at...No, I'd be recommending that if the bookies get over enthusiastic with Wales to tempt punters in, perhaps that you load onto the Boks, I think they'll win this one handy and in fact, Wales to not get out of their group is one I'm giving serious thought to...6 day turnaround after boks game to face Samoa. You can be guaranteed that will be bruising and the Samoans when they get organised properly have some great players. Fiji drew with Wales last year in Cardiff so will also fancy their chances against them.

[ciarraithuaidh]

France are +52 vs Japan in first game... Says a lot imo!

Agree with you on the in game markets, I feel that I will have a better chance of spotting good bets by avoiding Irish games tbh, as the heart will pull on the head a lot!

I think the top try scorer bet is interesting, from memory, the winner is almost always someone who's played against Georgia / Japan / US etc in the group games, and put 3/4 tries away against them.

I don't know if an Aus back is the man for me tbh, Italy and Ireland will contain Aus for long periods of the game, and I don't think they'll get over the line very often. France or NZ have very straightforward "minnows" to play in the groups, and could get a host of trys against though, though it is incredibly tough to pick which back 3 will get the most game time for either team. Ioane should be top scorer for Aus though.

(I also fancy a sneaky punt on Aus to lift the trophy)

Well, yes, obv France v Japan will be a massacre no matter what way you look at it. In fact +52 is reasonable enough IMO!
I can see where you come from with the French player for top tryscorer line, but who knows who the hell that weirdo Lievremont will pick on the wing.
Actually looking at it again, I forgot how important the order of fixtures is. I'm thinking someone like Ashton could get more gametime than say a Wallaby marksman based on this, i.e: England v Arg, 1st game, Ashton will play...followed by games v Georgia and Romania 6 days apart..he'll have to play at least 1 of them and would be fancied to get a few in either game. 7 day gap then to Scotland game which will be 1st XV so he'll start that also...and as Scotland are poor,should be on the mark here aswell. For Ashton you're almost certainly looking at (barring inury) 3 full games in pool stages,more than any of the contenders from Aus/Boks/NZ are going to get, so unless say a JP Pietersen type goes mad against Namibia and gets 8 tries (not improbable) he's at an advantage.
That being said, All Blacks winger(s) could have 10 tries got in pool stages..they are playing Tonga.Canada and Japan so I can understand why Cory Jane is favourite. Someone like Zac Guildford might be worth consideration...I'm giving myself a headache so i'll stop now!

[amberleaf]

There's not a hope in hell of Wales beating the Boks unless the Boks get food poisoning or something. Boks pack will dominate and while they aren't exactly graceful in midfield, Fourie & De Villiers will do enough offensively and defensively to more than match Roberts/Davies...Even the little Ace in the hole Wales used to have in the form of Shane Williams is a shadow of his former self. George North is their best hope for tries, big strong young winger..good man to aim a few cross kicks at...No, I'd be recommending that if the bookies get over enthusiastic with Wales to tempt punters in, perhaps that you load onto the Boks, I think they'll win this one handy and in fact, Wales to not get out of their group is one I'm giving serious thought to...6 day turnaround after boks game to face Samoa. You can be guaranteed that will be bruising and the Samoans when they get organised properly have some great players. Fiji drew with Wales last year in Cardiff so will also fancy their chances against them.

something to think about there,good stuff there!i see nz are 8/15,are they that far ahead?

[ciarraithuaidh]

something to think about there,good stuff there!i see nz are 8/15,are they that far ahead?

Well, they are deservedly favourites, but as the Wallabies showed recently, they are beatable. They are under serious pressure to win this one at home,but they have the team to do it. If Carter gets injured though, they are screwed..his back up is Colin Slade, who played his first game at international level only this year and doesn't look up to it yet.
They are looking at a potential semi final against the Boks if the draw goes as expected, so they will be tested alright, but unless Carter or McCaw are injured I wouldn't bet against them. I know quite a few people who have loaded on the Aussies,but one good game from our lads (it could happen!) and their heads will be gone so its a big risk.

[Emmet]

Here's an excellent permutations spreadsheet to muck about with.

Will definitely get a good post up here soon enough with thoughts on handicaps and spotting misprices, but don't really have the time or patience to scroll through all the bets yet.

https://rapidshare.com/files/3547878916/3-Rugby-World-Cup-2011-2.xls

[TheDrunkenOne]

NZ are 82-85 atm ..cant see them winning TBH but with 80pts for runner up you would need them to come 3rd (60) or 4th (50) for any decent return

defo gonna take a punt at Tonga @ 6.5-8 3rd in grp 10 and 4th is 5 with 25 if they make it out ....If french dont turn up it could be a sweet one as i feel they should beat canada and japan ....

seriously considering a punt ...whats the views?

[Emmet]

Wouldn't back Tonga vs France's U15s

Japan / Canada / Tonga is probably the only interesting "mini group" of the whole competition though.

[CheckRaise]

I am a big believer in never putting on a bet if I cant price up the event myself.

How do you price up the pool bets/outright winner markets?

[Emmet]

I am a big believer in never putting on a bet if I cant price up the event myself.

How do you price up the pool bets/outright winner markets?

Use permutations above to work out likely outcomes of groups.

Intuition for the rest pretty much.

[ciarraithuaidh]

Here's an excellent permutations spreadsheet to muck about with.

Will definitely get a good post up here soon enough with thoughts on handicaps and spotting misprices, but don't really have the time or patience to scroll through all the bets yet.

https://rapidshare.com/files/3547878...Cup-2011-2.xls

Just FYI, the times are incorrect for GMT on that excel sheet. Set it to GMT+1 and those are the kickoff times in Irish time. Don't want anyone losing an hour of grinding or anything.

Haven't seen all teams named yet, but for 1st 2 days i would predict as follows.
Nz v Tonga - All Blacks will win obviously. They may encounter some resistance from the Tongans (who will have almost as many supporters in the ground) but I would think something like a 10-20 point interval lead will turn into a 40+ victory by the end. All Blacks have named a somewhat experimental team, 4 centres in the backline, although all are potential game breakers. Tonga's outhalf played AIL Div 2 for Clonakilty last season. Has a huge boot but little to offer playmaking-wise! Tonga +61 @10/11 could be excessive given the mix n match nature of the All black team here,but if they cut loose.... In-game job I think.
Scotland v Romania
First off, before any betting, check the weather. this game is in the deep south of invercargill and if it gets wet down there..it'll be miserable and something like 21-3 would be expected. The current forecast is for it to be little to no rainfall,but don't trust that. If it IS dry/calm, I would predict a Scotland win by between 20 and 30 pts. Romania have a decent set piece and a beefy (if less than skillful) pack..they won't make it easy for the Scots,who looked pretty awful in the 1 warmup game in Murrayfield. One of Romania's best backs is missing due to his fear of flying.Did none of them ever watch the A-team like?! "I aint gettin on no plane fool"..lol. Anyway I would say Romania might put up early resistance with the inevitable holes appearing later on, not so sure Scotland will make the +36 mark,Scotland have looked so poor we won't know until we see how good/bad Romanians are. Rom +31.5 @evens might be an outside shot.
Fiji v Namibia
Fiji are going to win, but they have a spate of injuries including to Tagicakibau & Nalaga, 2 key players. I'd still fancy them to get past the 30 point handicap @10/11.
France v Japan
Spread is 46/47 pts depending on site. (Bet 365 give France -53.5 @27/20)France have named a very strong team and will run up a big total I expect, to beat the spread. Japan are not that bad for tier2/3 and beat Fiji in a good game recently. They are behind the likes of Samoa and even Canada however,but i think they could beat Tonga later on.
Argies v England
Def the tightest of the opening games. England despite stumbling on some form of improvement in the form of Manu Tuilagi are still plodders creatively apart from their back 3. You can be guaranteed most of this game won't be pretty, los Pumas will keep it in the trenches as much as possible and try to wear england down. Going on their 1st match in a year in Wales they are rusty and not as good as 2007, but they have a pack to match England and a class outhalf. To be honest its a game I'll stay away from, and check out in-game, but If I had to, I would think a couple of late English scores could take their winning margin beyond the 12 pt handicap mark. England -14 @evens available on bet365 might be worth a shot.

[Mellor]

Just FYI, the times are incorrect for GMT on that excel sheet. Set it to GMT+1 and those are the kickoff times in Irish time. Don't want anyone losing an hour of grinding or anything.

Irelands current timezone is equal GMT+1, due to daylight savings time.

[Emmet]

my predictions for Round 1, haven't compared them to the HCs yet. Much prefer doing it this way and then seeing if there are any huge differences...



FML i'm close on too many of these - Romania looks good below though

[Emmet]

Just seen that BarOneRacing are doing evens instead of 10/11 on all HC bets. If anyone is close to one of these, get involved there.
(Hilarious when a website links to an Aertel Page!!)

[jack90210]

Bet of the weekend South Africa -13?

[JackBurton]

my predictions for Round 1, haven't compared them to the HCs yet. Much prefer doing it this way and then seeing if there are any huge differences...



FML i'm close on too many of these - Romania looks good below though

Granted you're close on many, but you're 11 out on the Scotland game, 12 out on the Fiji game and 12 out on the Ireland game. These are pretty substantial differences. Should these not automatically be cracking bets in your eyes?

[Emmet]

Granted you're close on many, but you're 11 out on the Scotland game, 12 out on the Fiji game and 12 out on the Ireland game. These are pretty substantial differences. Should these not automatically be cracking bets in your eyes?

Scotland game I'd get money on. Fiji game is too much of an unknown for me to put enough weight behind my estimation, and the Ireland game is a bit too volatile for me to tip.

I like the Romania side of the Scotland bet though.

[jack90210]

Scotland game I'd get money on. Fiji game is too much of an unknown for me to put enough weight behind my estimation, and the Ireland game is a bit too volatile for me to tip.

I like the Romania side of the Scotland bet though.

36 points on Scotland is steep. Anyone got a link to Romanias results over the last year or two?

[Emmet]

Interesting market / post

Hey lads, I just came across this market on Paddy Power and it looks like there could be an opportunity for nice earnings in it.

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/rugby-union/world-cup-2011?ev_oc_grp_ids=505743

Russia and Tonga are the favourites @ 7/1 but these guys are unlikely to get past the group stages. However the teams that are likely to stay in tournament and thus play more games offer far more attractive odds like South Africa @ 20/1 and New Zealand @ 33/1.

The main ones I fancy are Samoa @ 12/1 as their group matches vs Wales, Sth Africa and Fiji are all likely to be fiery affairs, plus they have a decent chance of progressing further in the tournament.

The market is also offering 1/5 for top 3 places

[Emmet]

36 points on Scotland is steep. Anyone got a link to Romanias results over the last year or two?

I would be worried about Scotland's ability to put 36 points on anyone

[The Situation]

Why are those Samoa games predicted to be particularly fiery?? Any Rugby websites that keeps statistical records of bookings and the like to make it easier to price up in order to see if there's any value in the 12/1?

[Emmet]

Why are those Samoa games predicted to be particularly fiery?? Any Rugby websites that keeps statistical records of bookings and the like to make it easier to price up in order to see if there's any value in the 12/1?

Samoa are just a massively physical side, with a tendency to tackle poorly / high and infringe on the physical/dangerous side of the game.

It's true of the Pacific Islanders in general. They're just bigger guys.

Yellow cards in rugby come mostly from two sources, one dangerous tackles, two repeated infringements at the breakdown.

It's far harder to predict the latter as almost every referee has a different interpretation of the breakdown, and some are more yellow happy than others.

http://stats.espnscrum.com/statsguru/rugby/stats/index.html

http://www.rugbydata.com/

[Emmet]

Hmm, maybe betting the unders on Ireland is getting more appealing...

Just arrived back at my hotel. The weather forecast for Sunday is heavy rain in the morning followed by showers in the late afternoon. Its supposed to be pretty windy as well.

[The Situation]

Samoa are just a massively physical side, with a tendency to tackle poorly / high and infringe on the physical/dangerous side of the game.

It's true of the Pacific Islanders in general. They're just bigger guys.

Yellow cards in rugby come mostly from two sources, one dangerous tackles, two repeated infringements at the breakdown.

It's far harder to predict the latter as almost every referee has a different interpretation of the breakdown, and some are more yellow happy than others.

http://stats.espnscrum.com/statsguru/rugby/stats/index.html

http://www.rugbydata.com/

Italy look big at 20/1. Collected the most yellow cards in the 2007 WC and out of the 20 most booked players in the last ten years in the six nations, 9 of them are Italian. A caveat though was that this season gone was their most disciplined whether that's an anomaly in the sample or a sign that they're less reckless or a change in approach? Any idea of whose reffing their games in the WC, would help if they ping a particularly pedantic ref in one or more games.

I do love a special market despite knowing little to nothing about rugby

[Emmet]

Italian team are far more disciplined these days than before. They've got far more professional players than in previous years. Adding the two teams to the Celtic League has been huge for them.

Just saw this bet on boards.ie and I fully agree with it. However I've never done any in play betting, so am fairly clueless of how to do it / work with it,.

best value to be had here will be the half time over/under..IN PLAY.

Id expect it to be about 21/22 anything more and I'll be on the under.

we cant score, the US will be fired up for the first 15 and then start to creek. seems about right to me

[JackBurton]

Just saw this bet on boards.ie and I fully agree with it. However I've never done any in play betting, so am fairly clueless of how to do it / work with it,.

Pretty sure most of, if not all of the big firms won't have total 1st half points in running for any of the games. The total points for the full game will be available and constantly changing all the way up to about the 70th minute usually, before it is taken off.
If you want to access this just click 'live betting' after the game has started on whatever betting site your on and click on the game u want. It will give u all the in running markets as the game is going on.
You have to be quick off the mark though, the total points market will be constantly changing and suspended in instances where, say, a team is in the opponents 22 or a penalty has been awarded and a kick at goal is upcoming. Hope this is some kind of help.

[Mellor]

Pretty sure most of, if not all of the big firms won't have total 1st half points in running for any of the games.

It's on Betfair

[JackBurton]

It's on Betfair

Would there be enough liquidity in a market like that during the game, I doubt it but i could be wrong. Generally the only markets with enough liquidity for in running markets in rugby games are; outright, handicaps and total points. Thats from my experience anyway.

[Mellor]

I'm not sure.
As a whole, there is fuck all liquidity on betfair for the RWC, i'm just hoping that it will pick up before the off. I'm hoping that enough punters in australia/NZ use it to generate funds for those games.

Lack of liquidity can be a bonus too, while it means the overround if bigger, 110+% instead of 105%, it also means its slower to react and you can get in before it changes to much,

[amberleaf]

perhaps when the home nations get going it might improve,other than that the betting in running/ingame might be the way forward

[amberleaf]

might be of intrest,samoa are in training camp for the last nine weeks,shitty forecast for the scot/rom game,georga boss richie dixon quote"knows this scotland team inside out"

[The Situation]

What price do people think Ireland would be if we make the quarters, maybe between 16/1-20/1 or bigger? Thinking of backing at 40's now to lay off then.

[amberleaf]

36 points on Scotland is steep. Anyone got a link to Romanias results over the last year or two?

if you go to planetrugby site click on the match and click on the stats,the results of the last 6 games are there,

[eagle eye]

Heres my take on the overall tournament.

New Zealand - Worthy favourites, they have awesome depth all over the park. Personally I think they will win it unless the pressure gets to them. The pressure is questions over whether they have the bottle at a World Cup and the fact that they are the hosts. This current bunch have changed the way the game is played but thats happened before. You just can't get away though from how awesome their lineup looks. You could choose any 15 from their squad and you'd expect them to win.

Australia - Future winners for sure with a lot of this team. They have some gifted backs in young James O'Connor and Digbe Ionie. Kurtley Beale at FB and Adam Ashley-Cooper are really top players too and then you have the awesome partnership of Will Genia and Quade Copper at inside and outside-half and that pair are both only 23 years old.. The problem is their pack though for me, its decent but they don't have good depth and some of their top players have been very injury prone over the last couple of years too.

South Africa - I have a lot of money on them and I'm taking the chance that they will make the semis and I can lay off a good bit of it. They are the dark horses for sure. Just like 4 years ago they had a bad tri-nations. Like the two teams above the players came off a very hard Super Rugby season which went to 15 teams for the first time this year. Suddenly it seemed that everybody was injured and they fielded very weakened teams in this years tri-nations. If you look at the last two games of the series though they gave Australia a really tough game and then beat All-Blacks. When it came time to name the squad for the World Cup all the big names were there with the exception of Bekker and he is not a starter anyways. They have the talent there to do it, the question for me is just how happy is everybody right now. There has been some falling out in South African Rugby in recent times. Its a new country and apartheid is gone, the coach is black and I'm just not so sure that everybody is on the same page. If they are then this team for me will go very close.

France - I'd have them as second favourites only for their coach who for me has lost the plot completely. I think Basteraud should be there, I think Chabal should be there too. I know Chabal is not the same player he was but his leadership and how he lifts the French fans when he comes on make him important enough to have in the squad for me. I don't know how on earth Lievrement still has the job after leaving Harinordoquy on the bench and dropping Basteraud during the six nations, and on top of all that then saying he had didn't think the French rugby was in a good state and that it would be hard to find good depth. I personally think he is getting in the way of a hugely talented squad of players.

England - I don't think they are good enough although I was impressed by Tuilagi in the game against Ireland. I still don't think they have a good enough set of backs for this World Cup.

I don't think anybody else can win it. The Argies would be the next strongest team for me. Its going to be interesting to see how they get on in the new four nations tournament from next year onwards.

Overall though I think whoever wins the semi-final between the All-Blacks and the Sprinboeks wins the World Cup. My money is on South Africa but I've a stake saver on New Zealand.

[Mellor]

It's Aus or NZ for me, legalised prostitution will be to big a draw for the other countries and most players will go into the quarters worn out.
NZ and Aus will obviously be completely acclimatised to this and should be able to make the finals in good shape.

[Emmet]

Strange from Wales. Completely writing off the game obviously....

This is either brilliant or suicide, don't think there's any middle ground. Wales are going into this with a seriously young and inexperienced (North, Priestland, Faletau, Lydiate, Warburton) side, peppered with a few guys maybe past their prime (Phillips, AW Jones) and a few guys who've been knocking around for ages without ever being a genuine first choice (Bennett, Charteris).

South Africa, on the other hand, are fielding the most experienced side ever to take the field for an international; 815 caps between them

SA by 15-20 I think.

Wales: Hook; North, J Davies, Roberts, Shane Williams; Priestland, Phillips; James, Bennett, A Jones, Charteris, AW Jones, Lydiate, Warburton (captain), Faletau.

Replacements: Bevington, Burns, B Davies, Powell, Knoyle, Scott Williams, Halfpenny.

South Africa: Frans Steyn; JP Pietersen, Jaque Fourie, Jean de Villiers, Bryan Habana; Morne Steyn, Fourie du Preez; Pierre Spies, Schalk Burger, Heinrich Brussow, Victor Matfield, Danie Rossouw, Jannie du Plessis, John Smit (capt), Tendai Mtawarira.

Replacements: Bismarck du Plessis, Gurthro Steenkamp, CJ van der Linde, Johann Muller, Willem Alberts, Francois Hougaard, Butch James.

Take the SA side of the HC

[amberleaf]

Strange from Wales. Completely writing off the game obviously....




Take the SA side of the HC

was thinking that,1/2 time or f/t hcp?..hmm coner murry scrumhalf for ireland v u.s.a.,

[Emmet]

SA notoriously slow out of the blocks. Wouldn't bother with the 1/2 time HC as they're more into the grind than the demolition.

[ciarraithuaidh]

Aside from Lee Byrne who is in poor form, Bradley Davies and Halfpenny, that is a full stregth Welsh side actually. Stephen Jones is injured. Priestland is a good running outhalf so they are going to try to get outside the strong Bok centres I'd imagine, and believe me if Wales click and get the counter attack game going, they are as good as anyone in broken field play. Anyone who remembers the performance a supposed B team put up against the All blacks in Oz in 2003,will not take that side lightly. I think the Boks will grind them down up front and win, but not putting money on.

[ciarraithuaidh]

41-10 to NZ, but a poor start from them...mainly due to Cowan being awful at scrum half,but Weepu wasn't much better really. I thought the 61 pt spread may have been too high alright. NZ need to improve a lot,France game will be a good judging ground for where they're at.
I think the 33 pt start Romania have in Scotland game looks like it is worth a punt given there is rain forecast and Scotlands lack of firepower.

[jack90210]

Any reason not to lump lump lump South Africa -13?

[ciarraithuaidh]

Having a field day just backing the underdog to beat the handicap in all the games so far. Romania damn near pulled off the biggest shock ever last night, led with 10 to go, but 2 late tries got Scots outta jail.
Argentina @11/2 is a huge price, but they could struggle if the pace of the game goes up, so I'm actually going with England -13 @evens here.

[ciarraithuaidh]

Any reason not to lump lump lump South Africa -13?

They aren't in great form and haven't picked their best team, plus Wales are in good form and could trouble them if the game is loose and they counter atack well.
Most likely result is a Boks win through kicking game, but wouldn't be lumping -13 myself.

[Emmet]

More I think about it, the more I want to avoid betting on the SA Wales game. Both of these teams are able to come out and murder the other imo. While I definitely think that SA will win, I think that the ability that Wales have could definitely keep it close.

That being said, it could be a 28-33 kind of game, just as easily as it could be 9-15!

[TheJiggaman]

were there any British Channels showing the England match? Had to watch the shit on TG4

[Emmet]

were there any British Channels showing the England match? Had to watch the shit on TG4

BBC and ITV have the entire world cup available between them.

Problem is some of the games are on ITV3/ITV4 but that shouldn't be a problem for anyone with more than an aerial for TV.