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Old Today, 16:39   #68021
Trippie
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Was it Denny that went to Africa last year and saw the gorillas in uganda? Group i travel with looking at doing a 3-4 week trip next year. For those in the know the idea was either a namibia, botswana, South Africa jaunt or Uganda, Tanzania, Zanzibar, Mozambique itinerary.
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Old Today, 16:41   #68022
Raoul Duke III
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Did you watch The Loudest Voice?
no. Should I?

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I've not been on the site much lately but how are you finding the US presidential race?
well, we're still a long way off the main event. I'm still convinced picking Sanders would be a mistake of historic proportion (up there with Hilary last time) - things will get very interesting on the Dem side in the next few weeks.
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Old Today, 16:53   #68023
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no. Should I?



well, we're still a long way off the main event. I'm still convinced picking Sanders would be a mistake of historic proportion (up there with Hilary last time) - things will get very interesting on the Dem side in the next few weeks.
Really it's going to be awfully difficult to beat Trump. I think he's fucked up the economy something awful. Borrowing a trillion a year in a boom period, but all people seem to care about is the stock market. And that's doing phenomenal. So it probably needs to be Bloomberg. He has brilliant business credentials that put Trump to shame and he's moderate enough that he will win the middle ground, maybe. Saunders would be an epic fuck up as they will not just lose the presidency but also the two houses. As people will vote in Republican congressional candidates as insurance just in case Saunders gets the presidency.

All very odd, as Saunders is about as left as Leo is, yet he's counted as their extremist.
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Old Today, 16:59   #68024
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I took a road trip out to El Paso the other day. The middle part of the drive through the permian basin( friday night lights area) is awful, oil wells are all that's there. Cannot drink the water and it smells foul at times. Go a little past that, and then you start getting into the desert area. The views of mountains, rock formations and cacti as the road sweeps along the wall and mexican border is something I didnt expect.

El Paso has a raised highway that twists and winds through the city, simialr to Genoa if anyone has been there, the rio grande river & valley ( neither are very big) off to the side, the shacks of juarez spill down the hill side towards the wall. I didnt see a single trump or confederate flag where as I came back through Austin and southwest of there the flags were everywhere.

I took some pics on my phone but not sure how to get them here, I assume it has to be thorugh imageshack or something
imgur.com
or https://imgbb.com/ is even easier
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Old Today, 17:02   #68025
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Really it's going to be awfully difficult to beat Trump. I think he's fucked up the economy something awful. Borrowing a trillion a year in a boom period, but all people seem to care about is the stock market. And that's doing phenomenal. So it probably needs to be Bloomberg. He has brilliant business credentials that put Trump to shame and he's moderate enough that he will win the middle ground, maybe. Saunders would be an epic fuck up as they will not just lose the presidency but also the two houses. As people will vote in Republican congressional candidates as insurance just in case Saunders gets the presidency.

All very odd, as Saunders is about as left as Leo is, yet he's counted as their extremist.
Warren should be the candidate, Bloomberg would set an absolutely devastating new normal in US politics, they need an Anti-Trump not a lightly more palatable one.
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Old Today, 17:05   #68026
Raoul Duke III
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Warren should be the candidate, Bloomberg would set an absolutely devastating new normal in US politics, they need an Anti-Trump not a lightly more palatable one.
I think Warren gets trounced too.

East Coast liberal professor? That won't play in the mid-west.
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Old Today, 17:16   #68027
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Unfortunately none of the Democrats can beat Trump.

Bernie - the Democrats will do everything they can to stop him.
Bloomberg - was a punching bag the other day and will continue to be one. Does he have any redeeming features? Trump at least has jokes. He'll fall away.
Biden - he's not the oldest candidate but fuck me does he seem out of it most of the time.
Warren - performed the best in the last debate kicking Bloomberg, she's swinging back more centre and attacking Bernie now so just needs to tick along and get ahead of Biden/Bloomberg/Buttigieg and she'll get the nomination.
Buttigieg - as bland as bland can be but could get the nomination because of that.

From that group the nomination will come from Warren or Buttigieg. Going to punt Warren to be the Democratic candidate @ 22/1

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Old Today, 17:25   #68028
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Warren should be the candidate, Bloomberg would set an absolutely devastating new normal in US politics, they need an Anti-Trump not a lightly more palatable one.
If Bloomberg gets it, the Democrats are basically the Republicans pre Trump
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Old Today, 17:28   #68029
AndyFatBastard
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I think Warren gets trounced too.

East Coast liberal professor? That won't play in the mid-west.
Trump will absolutely trounce Warren. She is utterly triggered by him and will appear ridiculous to everyone but her base.
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Old Today, 17:50   #68030
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Warren: The whole lying about her native background is a stink that will keep following her. Her persona won't play well in the midwest. Nothing genuine about her.

Biden: I think this would be a massive mistake. The dems can't play the corruption card and nominate this guy given the whole Hunter thing, while perhaps clean, look awful and hasn't really been answered. It will be open season for this issue in a presidential race.

Sanders: The frontrunner of the 'we need a change' theme. Has integrity. Will beat Trump on substance of argument alone in debates. I can't see past him (Im obv biased).

Buttgieg: Dark horse, none of the baggage of the other candidates. His sexuality, and age still align with the 'we need a change' theme that seems to be swelling in progressive dem circles.

Bloomberg: Don't know why we are taking this guy seriously. Awful performer. Awful background. Completely runs against the change mentality

What it will come down to is how the dems feel about whether the groundswell for change is real, and tangible, or not. If it is, I think Sanders wins. If its not, I fear we get Bloomberg or Biden.
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Old Today, 18:05   #68031
ComradeCollie
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All very odd, as Saunders is about as left as Leo is, yet he's counted as their extremist.
And you're going to keep on deliberately misspelling his name? My imaginary money is on Bloomberg to win bigly.
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Old Today, 18:20   #68032
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What it will come down to is how the dems feel about whether the groundswell for change is real, and tangible, or not.
Where or how do you get the idea that there is a 'groundswell for change'?
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Old Today, 18:22   #68033
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Warren: The whole lying about her native background is a stink that will keep following her. Her persona won't play well in the midwest. Nothing genuine about her.

Biden: I think this would be a massive mistake. The dems can't play the corruption card and nominate this guy given the whole Hunter thing, while perhaps clean, look awful and hasn't really been answered. It will be open season for this issue in a presidential race.

Sanders: The frontrunner of the 'we need a change' theme. Has integrity. Will beat Trump on substance of argument alone in debates. I can't see past him (Im obv biased).

Buttgieg: Dark horse, none of the baggage of the other candidates. His sexuality, and age still align with the 'we need a change' theme that seems to be swelling in progressive dem circles.

Bloomberg: Don't know why we are taking this guy seriously. Awful performer. Awful background. Completely runs against the change mentality

What it will come down to is how the dems feel about whether the groundswell for change is real, and tangible, or not. If it is, I think Sanders wins. If its not, I fear we get Bloomberg or Biden.
The issue is thinking this is all about change. Decent analysis otherwise. Why would Americans want change when their wages are rising at 3% a year and their 401ks are swelling. They want someone dependable and not likely to fck things up, not a revolution.

I think they need a revolution, but I don't think that's what they think. Hence Bloomberg making the most sense as a choice. He is the essence of 'don't fck this up, just make it less nazi-ish'.

Warren would drown an absolute death, maybe one of the biggest losses on record. Saunders probably the same. Biden would lose, but not by much. Buttigieg has the advantage of newness, but maybe that's too risky if the population don't want to change much. But Bloomberg has the wealth to actually get the message across.
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Old Today, 18:25   #68034
Denny Crane
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Was it Denny that went to Africa last year and saw the gorillas in uganda? Group i travel with looking at doing a 3-4 week trip next year. For those in the know the idea was either a namibia, botswana, South Africa jaunt or Uganda, Tanzania, Zanzibar, Mozambique itinerary.
Yeah. It's much cheaper than doing it in Rwanda. You can go on tours that are a couple of grand+. But I just got my own pass for $500 or so, and booked a place near it. I think just the permit is $1500 in Rwanda, and a big tour operator controls most of them.

Must get around to finishing that trip report.
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Old Today, 18:35   #68035
Theresa
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The issue is thinking this is all about change. Decent analysis otherwise. Why would Americans want change when their wages are rising at 3% a year and their 401ks are swelling. They want someone dependable and not likely to fck things up, not a revolution.

I think they need a revolution, but I don't think that's what they think. Hence Bloomberg making the most sense as a choice. He is the essence of 'don't fck this up, just make it less nazi-ish'.

Warren would drown an absolute death, maybe one of the biggest losses on record. Saunders probably the same. Biden would lose, but not by much. Buttigieg has the advantage of newness, but maybe that's too risky if the population don't want to change much. But Bloomberg has the wealth to actually get the message across.
Agree, which is what I was trying to get across in the final piece. If the dems think it is about change, itll be Sanders. If it isn't it'll be billionaire or Biden as usual.

Sanders personifies the anti trump. In both political ideology, but also in terms of coherence, articulation of argument and well... just being a good human. Thats also 'change'.

There does seem to be, both proven (the blue wave) and in pop culture a movement towards a decent human, someone with integrity. Now, I am aware that my echo chamber of media, articles and sources prob contribute to me feeling this, and there is also proven (brexit, uk election, trump v1, impeachment) that the other side of this is obstinate, and unwilling to lose so... shrug.

But I really do think that anyone but Sanders will demoralize the democrat Sanders base into not voting, and letting Trump walk it.
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