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    The Political Ascendancy Plot

    ...
    Last edited by Hitchhiker's Guide To...; 03-02-20, 14:45.
    "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

    #2
    ...
    Last edited by Hitchhiker's Guide To...; 06-02-20, 16:05.
    "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

    Comment


      #3
      In

      Comment


        #4
        Also in
        People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
        Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
        https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21

        Comment


          #5
          In


          Excellent title

          Comment


            #6
            Inski

            FF:50
            FG:40
            SF:31
            Lab:6
            Green:11
            Others:22

            Comment


              #7
              Why don't you have lines for PBP and SD?

              (Feel free to respond in the way I do when some cretin suggests a change to the Cheltenham format)
              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

              Comment


                #8
                ...Absolutely clueless but in...

                Comment


                  #9
                  ...
                  "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                  Comment


                    #10
                    FF: 59
                    FG: 42
                    SF: 23
                    LAB: 5
                    GP: 8
                    OTH: 23
                    "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                    Comment


                      #11
                      FFS. Some old dear hits the bricks in Tipp and there'll be no result here for a few more weeks.

                      She wasn't even priced up. (Unless they were quick taking it down)

                      Comment


                        #12
                        ...
                        "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                        Comment


                          #13
                          So are we setting totals without the Tipp seats?

                          Comment


                            #14
                            ...
                            "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                              Yeah let's do that. I'll adjust the seat numbers and update the rules tomorrow.
                              rumours that Tipp will actually happen now

                              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                              Comment


                                #16
                                ...
                                "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  ...
                                  "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Fianna Fáil: 53
                                    Fine Gael: 39
                                    Sinn Féin: 27
                                    Labour Party: 8
                                    Green Party: 14
                                    Others: 19
                                    People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
                                    Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
                                    https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      FF: 54
                                      FG: 37
                                      SF: 28
                                      LP: 6
                                      GP: 14
                                      Others: 23


                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        Bump for those no doubt commissioning private polling research.

                                        I've gone heavily over FF such that if I win, I can use the lootz to drink myself into oblivion.
                                        "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          FF - 52
                                          FG - 40
                                          SF - 23
                                          GR - 12
                                          LAB - 6
                                          OTH 27

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            Inksi!


                                            FF 54
                                            FG 40
                                            SF 28
                                            LAB 8
                                            GR 13
                                            OTH 17

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              FF. 53 Seats
                                              FG. 43 Seats
                                              SF. 24 Seats
                                              LB. 6 Seats
                                              GP. 14 Seats
                                              Others 20 Seats

                                              Good luck all

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                FF: 57
                                                FG: 41
                                                SF: 22
                                                Lab: 7
                                                Greens: 12
                                                Other: 21

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  By the looks of this, I am clearly very bullish on SF

                                                  Mary Lou FTW

                                                  Comment


                                                    #26
                                                    FF: 52
                                                    FG: 47
                                                    SF: 23
                                                    Greens: 12
                                                    Lab: 8
                                                    Others: 18

                                                    I absolutely don't have a clue! this feels like dead money based more on hope than expectation
                                                    Turning millions into thousands

                                                    Comment


                                                      #27
                                                      ... Sorry an hour late, predictions below...
                                                      FF- 49
                                                      FG- 46
                                                      SF- 27
                                                      Green- 12
                                                      Lab- 7
                                                      Others- 19

                                                      ...Can safely say I didnt gain an advantage by being an hour late (my selections will show that)...

                                                      Comment


                                                        #28
                                                        ...Spreadsheet time...

                                                        ... I have setup a spreadsheet to make it a bit easier to keep track off... Sorry Hitch if I am over taking it, but in work and needed a distraction... Once the results are in, if you can post the seats for each party (preferably in the order I have the parties), I can plug them in and do the calcs... First is the example of it... Will ask people to double check their predictions for accuracy...


                                                        Comment


                                                          #29
                                                          Bit disappointed that luckforsome had to show Hitch up in his own competition.

                                                          11 of us playing for the glory.
                                                          "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                          Comment


                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                            Bit disappointed that luckforsome had to show Hitch up in his own competition.

                                                            11 of us playing for the glory.
                                                            ... He didn't make it very hard for me to do so in my defense...

                                                            Comment


                                                              #31
                                                              ...
                                                              "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                              Comment


                                                                #32
                                                                ...
                                                                "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                Comment


                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                                  If I was a betting man, Murdrum looks solid for this.
                                                                  IPBs own Nate Silver

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    #34
                                                                    Shane Cassells (FF) in Meath was I think the shortest priced candidate in the whole country to get elected at 1/250 a little over a week ago. He’s in a 3 way dogfight for the last 2 seats, currently lying 3rd in the 3 seater but only 500 ahead of a FG pending the elimination of another FG’er with 3500 votes - now that would be the upset to beat all upsets.

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by Arazi View Post
                                                                      Shane Cassells (FF) in Meath was I think the shortest priced candidate in the whole country to get elected at 1/250 a little over a week ago. He’s in a 3 way dogfight for the last 2 seats, currently lying 3rd in the 3 seater but only 500 ahead of a FG pending the elimination of another FG’er with 3500 votes - now that would be the upset to beat all upsets.
                                                                      And gone. Some win for Tóibín, wonder what price he was at the outset?

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        #36
                                                                        Originally posted by mcnugget View Post
                                                                        And gone. Some win for Tóibín, wonder what price he was at the outset?
                                                                        Yeah good man Peader, he’s a really good person, I’ve known him since I was a kid (he was called Peter Tobin then). He was actually pretty short, I think 1/7 although he drifted to about 2/5 in the last few days.
                                                                        I think it was something like 1/250 Cassells, 1/7 Toibin, 1/4 English & 7/2 Guirke for SF for 3 seats.
                                                                        Cassells had topped the poll in 2016 and got in with a surplus and this time was standing as the lone FF with English one of 3 FG’s. Cassells prob did look like a cert but wow some shocker!

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          #37
                                                                          Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                                          If I was a betting man, Murdrum looks solid for this.
                                                                          ...If it stays this way, then your bet will be correct, as per the spreadsheet...

                                                                          ...Current seats have Murdrum winning with 92 points lost, Ionapaul and silvertiger tied for 2nd 12 points behind on the 2 point system... Think it could already be tied up with still 24 seats to go...Will update again in a couple of hours...
                                                                          Last edited by luckforsome; 10-02-20, 18:56. Reason: ...Updated with more seats...

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            #38
                                                                            Maybe I’m out of order here as a non player but seeing as you were all so wrong maybe a donation to charity is in order.

                                                                            Comment


                                                                              #39
                                                                              Originally posted by Arazi View Post
                                                                              Maybe I’m out of order here as a non player but seeing as you were all so wrong maybe a donation to charity is in order.
                                                                              ...Apparently we were all starting with 100 points, in which case Murdrum is the only one to have a positive result at the moment...

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                #40
                                                                                ...Updated the sheet below, it has 152 out of the seats picked...As Hitch is the man of the moment in this election, it will be his pleasure to check the results and announce the IPB nomination to face the IRA in the next 12 months... In my amateurish opinion, Murdrum is the clear winner





                                                                                ...@Murdrum, on a totally different topic...I am currently welcoming new members to the IPB lotto syndicate, and the €25 worth have you firmly in the gang...

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  #41
                                                                                  ...
                                                                                  "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    #42
                                                                                    Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                                                    Sterling work luck4sum. ty sir.

                                                                                    Let me get on a computer tomorrow morning. But looks like the final count of 38 FF, 37 FF, 35 FG doesn't change anything.
                                                                                    ... Have updated my sheet for the final tally, so providing my figures are right it should be there for you... I actually didn't know so many parties counted as others, thought it would be independent and maybe 2 other people lol...

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                      #43
                                                                                      Looks like there is a slight error in the sheet - doesn't change the final result mind! One of Murdrum's scores is '-2' instead of the positive numbers all the other scores are listed as, thus being added to his starting total of 160 rather than subtracted.

                                                                                      This was fun and we should do it again!
                                                                                      Last edited by ionapaul; 11-02-20, 10:34.


                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                        #44
                                                                                        Originally posted by ionapaul View Post
                                                                                        Looks like there is a slight error in the sheet - doesn't change the final result mind! One of Murdum's scores is '-2' instead of the positive numbers all the other scores are listed as, thus being added to his starting total of 160 rather than subtracted.

                                                                                        This was fun and we should do it again!
                                                                                        I concur, we might not have to wait too long for Round 2 either.

                                                                                        If Luck & Hitch confirm the numbers are correct, I'll send on details to everyone but RD3, he can hold onto the cash for Cheltenham

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                          #45
                                                                                          Originally posted by ionapaul View Post
                                                                                          Looks like there is a slight error in the sheet - doesn't change the final result mind! One of Murdum's scores is '-2' instead of the positive numbers all the other scores are listed as, thus being added to his starting total of 160 rather than subtracted.

                                                                                          This was fun and we should do it again!
                                                                                          The committee has called for a full recount in our competition
                                                                                          It could take weeks

                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                            #46
                                                                                            ... That -2 correction has actually put me ahead amazingly enough...Updated sheet now...

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                              #47
                                                                                              I podiumed in this!!

                                                                                              Beat some giants on the political commentary world in the process! In for the re-election.

                                                                                              Murdrum send on IBAN or number if you have Revolut

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                #48
                                                                                                Jesus if I had known my prediction of 59 FF was high by 21, I would have bought a case of champagne.

                                                                                                And then would have smashed it with a hammer.

                                                                                                WP Murdrum, will retain the pony for Chelts as directed.
                                                                                                "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                  #49
                                                                                                  ...
                                                                                                  "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                                  Comment

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