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Mid tournament hand - a few questions (IPO 2015)

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    Mid tournament hand - a few questions (IPO 2015)

    An interesting spot came up early on day 2 of the IPO. Villain in the hand has been fairly active in the two rounds of the button I've seen, limping often, calling bets, and has just lost a few chips when his decent sized river bet got called by top pair and he showed an underpair to the board.

    Blinds 1500-3000.
    Tournament average is about 110,000
    Mid position. Villain playing 90,000
    Button. I'm playing 200,000

    Early position calls 3,000, villain calls, I call with 24 . BB calls too. Pot 15,000 with antes.
    Q1: Is this too passive, should I be raising on the button, narrowing the field,, or happy to play multi-way with a hand I can let go of easily if I miss?

    Flop Q35

    BB checks, early position checks, villain checks, I bet 9,000.
    Q2: I think this bet here is standard enough, any other ideas here?

    BB folds, EP folds, villain bets 40,000...
    Q3: This is the fun one. I've been check raised for 50% of villain's stack. From a strategy point of view what are the merits of mucking and limiting exposure, playing small pots with small hands vs, shipping over the top, with perhaps some fold equity and presumably some outs. What are the merits of hitting a 300k stack this early, still 200+ players from the money. Or do we take the risk as we have the stack to do it? My flush outs could be crushed, I may only have 6 clean outs for the straight. What do we do?

    #2
    PF. I just fold pre. I may open on the button if limped to depending on how the blinds play, and table dynamices.

    OTF. As described, I expect this type of player to have alot of Qx type hands, as well as dominating flush draws, an occasional slow played medium/large pair, and the odd airball. I sigh call.

    Comment


      #3
      think limping is ambitious but fine with a really soft field, giving hima range of - 55,33,KcQc,AcJc,KcJc,AcTc,KcTc,JcTc,Ac9c,Kc9c,Jc9c ,Tc9c,Ac8c,Kc8c,Jc8c,9c8c,Ac7c,8c7c,Ac6c,7c6c,Ac5c ,AQo,KQo ( fairly reasonable i think) you have 42.81% equity, not sure if im missing some hands that could be in his range prob am its early but that seems close to a range he could c/r here unless he's batshit crazy.


      Board: 5:heart:Q:club:3:club:
      *******Equity*****Win*****Tie
      MP2****42.81%**42.76%***0.05%*{ 4c2c }
      MP3****57.19%**57.14%***0.05%*{ 55, 33, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc, KcTc, JcTc, Ac9c, Kc9c, Jc9c, Tc9c, Ac8c, Kc8c, Jc8c, 9c8c, Ac7c, 8c7c, Ac6c, 7c6c, Ac5c, AQo, KQo }


      we get 2.42/1 on our money if we jam and get called and we need 41.32% equity so we are basically right on the brink of what we need to get it in. basically do you feel like youre running good ? :P, personally i prob wouldnt flip for heaps in a soft field where we should have a massive edge, but thats just me.

      edit: not sure why the fuck the equity calc results are so for apologies if its hard to read.

      Comment


        #4
        Q1 - I'm never flatting here. Raise or fold for me. I don't want the blind(s) coming along and getting in an extra tricky spot. I make it 9-10k or fold but leaning to a fold vs two limpers tbh.

        Q2 - Seems fine to me. Depends how tricky BB & EP are and their stack sizes.

        Q3 - Fun spot now I guess. I suppose you have to bring overpairs ( i saw a lot of limping with AA/KK over the weekend), sets & FD's into villains range? I wouldn't rule out Qx combos either. (Hell its the IPO so 35/46s limpers aswell!) You mention fold equity but surely villain cant fold to a shove here? It's unlikely he has A5 so if he is on the FD our 2s & 4s can be live too so I probably go with it at this stage..... still left with 36bbs if it goes wrong.....

        Comment


          #5
          Hi,

          I would have folded this hand preflop, the bet on flop seems fine, its all inn or fold now and if you are calling preflop with this hand this is the flop you are looking for. And also if you do miss you still have a few chips left.

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by chips1234 View Post
            we get 2.42/1 on our money if we jam and get called and we need 41.32% equity so we are basically right on the brink of what we need to get it in. basically do you feel like youre running good ? :P, personally i prob wouldnt flip for heaps in a soft field where we should have a massive edge, but thats just me.
            I think I made an error here in that I made his range too narrow to make a call feel better to myself which is silly. The bit in bold/underlined above for me is the heart beat of this. Even if he flips his hand up and if I am in the 40% range do I need to be getting involved when I should have more/safer ways of making money. Is the fact I have a stack that can withstand a loss clouding my judgement? I was definitely leaning toward a call with such clever thinking as "ahh sure, if I lose I'm back down to average", if I had 90k too, and it was tournament life syndrome would a fold be easier? That is flawed thinking, right?

            Originally posted by Dice75 View Post
            Q3 -You mention fold equity but surely villain cant fold to a shove here? It's unlikely he has A5 so if he is on the FD our 2s & 4s can be live too so I probably go with it at this stage..... still left with 36bbs if it goes wrong.....
            This is interesting - I was discussing the hand with LuckyLloyd and I kept harping on about fold equity - but perhaps I didn't have much in reality.

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by ditpoker View Post
              I think I made an error here in that I made his range too narrow to make a call feel better to myself which is silly. The bit in bold/underlined above for me is the heart beat of this. Even if he flips his hand up and if I am in the 40% range do I need to be getting involved when I should have more/safer ways of making money. Is the fact I have a stack that can withstand a loss clouding my judgement? I was definitely leaning toward a call with such clever thinking as "ahh sure, if I lose I'm back down to average", if I had 90k too, and it was tournament life syndrome would a fold be easier? That is flawed thinking, right?



              This is interesting - I was discussing the hand with LuckyLloyd and I kept harping on about fold equity - but perhaps I didn't have much in reality.
              not really sure why you think narrowing his range to make the call feel is a good thing, narrowing his range would put you in a worse spot equity wise. as for the boled bit basically do you think you have a big enough edge over the field to think you can keep chipping up easily with low variance ? if you do taking this spot is prob spewy, as for tourney life syndrome it doesnt really matter at this as there is zero icm implications right now, we want to just keep chipping away at the table staying aggro and winning pots without showdown. would also think its flawed to think ah sure if i lose i still have 90k. maths wise its basically a break even spot as per my post above. from what ive read about the field it was really soft so i prefer folding and move on keep chipping up as there will surely be alot better spots to get our chips in.

              i also think we have zero fold equity but stranger things have happened i suppose..

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by chips1234 View Post
                .....
                Yea, I think you're pretty much spot on here. I had been chipping away/low variance for all of day one and the more I think about the hand the more I think fold was the right play.

                SPOILER
                As played, I sighed and called, he had QT for bare top pair and held. Afterward I ran numbers and I think I was 57% favourite and rationalized that as I was favourite it was good call - but with more thought, it was maybe sub-optimal. Been reading a bit over on 2+2 by AJKhoosier1 about difference between profitable and optimal, which fits here a bit. I think while the call is fine, I think the fold is better as you've explained. Cheers

                Comment


                  #9
                  That's a large range ....

                  Originally posted by chips1234 View Post
                  think limping is ambitious but fine with a really soft field, giving hima range of - 55,33,KcQc,AcJc,KcJc,AcTc,KcTc,JcTc,Ac9c,Kc9c,Jc9c ,Tc9c,Ac8c,Kc8c,Jc8c,9c8c,Ac7c,8c7c,Ac6c,7c6c,Ac5c ,AQo,KQo ( fairly reasonable i think) you have 42.81% equity, not sure if im missing some hands that could be in his range prob am its early but that seems close to a range he could c/r here unless he's batshit crazy.


                  Board: 5:heart:Q:club:3:club:
                  *******Equity*****Win*****Tie
                  MP2****42.81%**42.76%***0.05%*{ 4c2c }
                  MP3****57.19%**57.14%***0.05%*{ 55, 33, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc, KcTc, JcTc, Ac9c, Kc9c, Jc9c, Tc9c, Ac8c, Kc8c, Jc8c, 9c8c, Ac7c, 8c7c, Ac6c, 7c6c, Ac5c, AQo, KQo }


                  we get 2.42/1 on our money if we jam and get called and we need 41.32% equity so we are basically right on the brink of what we need to get it in. basically do you feel like youre running good ? :P, personally i prob wouldnt flip for heaps in a soft field where we should have a massive edge, but thats just me.

                  edit: not sure why the fuck the equity calc results are so for apologies if its hard to read.
                  ....Sorry couldn't resist ...

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Don't really know where the merits for limping behind (or raising) are coming from in this one. It's a very easy fold. You're 30bbs effective vs villain. Sure , if you're 100+ bbs deep vs described villain but I find it hard to believe either option is profitable here.

                    You're in a tournament with a decent structure, very soft field and plenty of players who will spaz/stack off light. I don't think that peeling or iso'ing super light this shallow is the way your going to build a stack.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by LTL View Post
                      Don't really know where the merits for limping behind (or raising) are coming from in this one. It's a very easy fold. You're 30bbs effective vs villain. Sure , if you're 100+ bbs deep vs described villain but I find it hard to believe either option is profitable here.

                      You're in a tournament with a decent structure, very soft field and plenty of players who will spaz/stack off light. I don't think that peeling or iso'ing super light this shallow is the way your going to build a stack.
                      I did say it was ambitious, and agree with everthing you've mentioned, isoing here would be pretty bad i think in a tourney with a lot rec players who are happy to limp and stick around post flop.

                      Personally i prefer checking flop although i think a huge % of players always bet here everytime. In an MTT such as this one i'd prefer to control pot size with marginal holdings and just go for pure big value when we have significant range advantages v weak villains.

                      We don't need to have fancy play syndrome in these, just make sure you keep getting value and use range advantages to put pressure on weaker players is prob the most +EV way to go about it, even though it sounds super nitty its prob the smartest way to play in fields full of weak players.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        1. as other have said I like a fold here although in game could see me peeling too. I don't like isolating with hands this week unless original limpers are awful as many players will limp AJ ,AQ too and will be hard to move off on later streets

                        2. HU bet everyday of the week and twice and sunday, but multiway can see more of a case for checking as chances of picking up the pot on flop seem slim and hence pot control seems like a nice way to go, especially when we will still have position on the turn so can elect for a bluff then if it checks to us again (and we've missed)

                        3. meh, this sizing feels like a Q so often that I'd prob go with it, but that said I like the arguments for folding put forward by others. Personally I suspect FE is close to zero as villain will assume you're on a draw and call it off with any Q once they've stuck in the 40k. To my mind it's extremely relevant whether you'll have 90k or 5k or 0k if you lose in these type of marginal spots...

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Fold pre, check flop, expect to have no fold equity In this spot. Even though you have a lot of outs your unecesssarily in a huge flip for near half you stack in an excellently structured tourney with a lot of poor players. Better to preserve you big stack than take a big risk here
                          The smarter you play the luckier you'll be
                          MTT Calender 2015

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Betting this and then folding on the flop would be criminally bad. What exactly are you betting for?

                            Preflop I'd imagine most players should just muck it

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by Kie Diddy View Post
                              2. HU bet everyday of the week and twice and sunday, but multiway can see more of a case for checking as chances of picking up the pot on flop seem slim and hence pot control seems like a nice way to go, especially when we will still have position on the turn so can elect for a bluff then if it checks to us again (and we've missed)
                              I think I should have thought more about pot control - especially given my flush draw is pretty weak multiway where other flush draws can exist (is that too nitty though?)

                              Originally posted by Nuttkickker View Post
                              Better to preserve you big stack than take a big risk here
                              Part of me (as posted) has come toward this line of thinking - but then the follow up has to be when do we take risks like this? How many blinds deep? early/mid/late stage of a tournament. I'd imagine with 10BB we'd be happy to flip if average is 30BB+ ...

                              Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post
                              Betting this and then folding on the flop would be criminally bad. What exactly are you betting for?

                              Preflop I'd imagine most players should just muck it
                              Are we mucking preflop just because the hand plays weakly multiway? My mindset pre was effectively nut-mining... I have a huge stack, 1BB to try and win a big pot against a soft field if I hit big. Unfortunately, I hit little-big and got myself into trouble. My worry is that I'm only thinking about the hand because I lost it, I wonder if I'd think about it as much had I won the flip - I need to try and get away from results based thinking generally.

                              Comment


                                #16
                                Originally posted by ditpoker View Post


                                Are we mucking preflop just because the hand plays weakly multiway? My mindset pre was effectively nut-mining... I have a huge stack, 1BB to try and win a big pot against a soft field if I hit big. Unfortunately, I hit little-big and got myself into trouble. My worry is that I'm only thinking about the hand because I lost it, I wonder if I'd think about it as much had I won the flip - I need to try and get away from results based thinking generally.
                                42s will basically never be the nuts at any stage of a hand. If you have a flush it will be four high. If you have two pair it will be the worst two pair possible (the only situation in which this isn't the case is a board of 234 and that means that there are two straights possible), and any good hand you make is in grave danger of being counterfeited. Its a terrible hand.

                                The effective stack in this hand is 30bbs. This isn't the type of hand you should be playing in this spot.

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post
                                  42s will basically never be the nuts at any stage of a hand. If you have a flush it will be four high. If you have two pair it will be the worst two pair possible (the only situation in which this isn't the case is a board of 234 and that means that there are two straights possible), and any good hand you make is in grave danger of being counterfeited. Its a terrible hand.

                                  The effective stack in this hand is 30bbs. This isn't the type of hand you should be playing in this spot.
                                  I have to admit there was a touch of fancy play syndrome to it. I presume something like 79s or 86s would make this more playable, and we're just dumping 2-3-4-5 style hands at this point?

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    the really low suited connectors/ one gappers generally play pretty badly, just for arguments sake i have put 3 random hands into an equity calculator and put a few different holding as the 4th hand. in practice you will be v 3 ranges rather than totally random hands
                                    2,4s v 3 random hands = 18.9%
                                    6,7s v 3 random hands = 25%
                                    J,9s v 3 random hands = 31%
                                    A,5s v 3 random hands = 32%
                                    J,Qs v 3 random hands = 35%
                                    apart from having so little equity they are harder to play and can be dominated easier and rarely flopping the nuts, small pairs will only have a little more equity in a similiar spot but are so much easier to play
                                    The smarter you play the luckier you'll be
                                    MTT Calender 2015

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Nuttkickker View Post
                                      the really low suited connectors/ one gappers generally play pretty badly, just for arguments sake i have put 3 random hands into an equity calculator and put a few different holding as the 4th hand. in practice you will be v 3 ranges rather than totally random hands
                                      2,4s v 3 random hands = 18.9%
                                      6,7s v 3 random hands = 25%
                                      J,9s v 3 random hands = 31%
                                      A,5s v 3 random hands = 32%
                                      J,Qs v 3 random hands = 35%
                                      apart from having so little equity they are harder to play and can be dominated easier and rarely flopping the nuts, small pairs will only have a little more equity in a similiar spot but are so much easier to play
                                      Cheers - I need to improve my poker maths, definitely a leak of mine.

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by ditpoker View Post
                                        I have to admit there was a touch of fancy play syndrome to it. I presume something like 79s or 86s would make this more playable, and we're just dumping 2-3-4-5 style hands at this point?
                                        67s is a much better hand than 42s but with 30blinds the game is more about hitting top pair than flopping draws

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          If you're not going to go all in on this flop, then fold the hand preflop. Simples.
                                          "I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post
                                            Betting this and then folding on the flop would be criminally bad.
                                            I doubt ditpoker's play would even be on the guard's radar. Unless someone at the table was a guard. Are you a gaurd?

                                            Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post
                                            What exactly are you betting for?
                                            IMO don't answer anymore off HJ's questions until you've contacted a lawyer.

                                            Originally posted by Hectorjelly View Post
                                            Preflop I'd imagine most players should just muck it
                                            Exactly the sort of thing a guard would say.
                                            It's all an illusion

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              Everyone should listen to chips1234. He is Chopper Challenge Champion, undefeated for many years, and therefore ranks highest among us.
                                              It's all an illusion

                                              Comment

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