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Old 28-01-19, 20:59   #21
Kie Diddy
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hectorjelly View Post
Against a worse case scenario where he is never bluffing and always has 22 or KT+ we have 21.5% equity

Add in just the nut flush draw and we have 40%

http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...C+ak&s=generic

http://www.propokertools.com/simulat...%2As&s=generic

This is a live tournament in ireland so I think the above ranges are way off, but even against the second one we are doing better than breaking even. If you add in JJ+ we are 60%
I take your point that his range could be wider than I think, but as played I don't see how he shows up with JJ/QQ type hands or random air balls other than very, very occasionally...

I think your second sim is probably about right, and is roughly what I gave him in PIO (ie. AA, 22, KTo+, K9s, all possible NFDs and FDs QT+) ... so I guess where we differ is thinking that calling a 30 bb shove because we are doing better than breaking even is a snap call ...especially when they are some very weak players at the table ready to punt...
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Old 28-01-19, 21:17   #22
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Old 01-02-19, 00:26   #23
Hectorjelly
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You have about a 5% edge against his range (ie you need 35% but you have 40%), and thats it he is shoving a reasonable range containing no out and out bluffs, and also if all hands are equally likely. He is definitely going to be more likely to slowplay flopped houses than flush draws, so its likely the real edge is higher. Also in this buyin level you will occasionally see crazy hands in all lines.

A friend of mine said he would fold because he beats no value hands - that's beside the point when the pot odds suggest its a profitable call anyway.
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Old 04-02-19, 12:50   #24
Dice75
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May as well embellish this thread with another hand from Dusk Till Dawn

330 game - Day 2

29 left - 17 paid

Blinds 3.5k/7k/7k
Average stack 400k

Hero (800k) opens MP to 15k with A8
Button (150k) calls
BB (850k) completes.

Flop Qx42

Playing at table approx 1 hour since start of Day 2 and pretty comfortable, chipping up gradually & constantly without having to play any big hands. Button seems the most competent at table, BB has amassed big stack on Day 1 and just tipping along Day 2.

BB donk leads for 30k.
Hero flats (thoughts?)
Button shoves 135k ish.

BB rips in his 800k ish

Hero?
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Old 04-02-19, 14:32   #25
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Seeing as it's you call and hit runner runner for the wheel

Prediction

Spoiler


I initially was saying fold but kinda like a call.
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Old 04-02-19, 18:38   #26
Nic
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dice75 View Post
May as well embellish this thread with another hand from Dusk Till Dawn

330 game - Day 2

29 left - 17 paid

Blinds 3.5k/7k/7k
Average stack 400k

Hero (800k) opens MP to 15k with A8
Button (150k) calls
BB (850k) completes.

Flop Qx42

Playing at table approx 1 hour since start of Day 2 and pretty comfortable, chipping up gradually & constantly without having to play any big hands. Button seems the most competent at table, BB has amassed big stack on Day 1 and just tipping along Day 2.

BB donk leads for 30k.
Hero flats (thoughts?)
Button shoves 135k ish.

BB rips in his 800k ish

Hero?
Whilst reading through this I found myself wondering what the btn was doing flatting off a 21bb stack, then you went on to say he was competent, so he was probably trapping with kings.

Standard flat for you v the lead, then easy fold vs the BB reshove.
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Old 04-02-19, 19:52   #27
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Yeah, as played Id agree with Nic that its an easy fold.
You need your Ace to be live for a call to be close to profitable and even if they were face up and all your outs were live Id probably still fold.

Id like to have seen how the BB was playing earlier, if they looked a certain type Id prefer to advocate making it 95k.
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Old 05-02-19, 14:34   #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nic View Post
Whilst reading through this I found myself wondering what the btn was doing flatting off a 21bb stack, then you went on to say he was competent, so he was probably trapping with kings.

Standard flat for you v the lead, then easy fold vs the BB reshove.
BB overshove is a desire to close the betting.
Am I massively oversimplifying this as potential weakness?
happy to call off 100k (effectively) with a drawing hand (which we are ahead of) or weak pair (which we beat a lot) but doesn't want us in it at all?
I'm WAY out of practice so genuinely interested in knowing if my thinking is just dumb
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Old 05-02-19, 15:10   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeadParrot View Post
BB overshove is a desire to close the betting.
Am I massively oversimplifying this as potential weakness?
happy to call off 100k (effectively) with a drawing hand (which we are ahead of) or weak pair (which we beat a lot) but doesn't want us in it at all?
I'm WAY out of practice so genuinely interested in knowing if my thinking is just dumb
You need approx 42% equity to make the call here. Shorty on btn you mentioned was relatively competent. His PF flatting range I suspect is relatively strong,
though it does probably (should) rule out 22 & 44, perhaps something like QJs+, KQs, KK, AA, maybe some KJss, J10ss but the latter would be loose at this stack depth.

If you feel BB nevers leads 22 & 44 then, we can probably eliminate them. I suspect to see BTN with a pretty nutted range to jam though in this spot
while BB can have a few SD/FD combos but you block a couple with As, suspect to see mostly 2 pair hands, pair + FD from bb.

I pretty sure though no calculator here but I suspect you don't have enough equity to make the call at 42%.

Perhaps the opponents are far wider but nut FD & 1 over is probably never in great shape here, if you feel BB never leads a made hand and a huge proportion of his
range is made up of weaker draws then maybe there's some merit to calling but I fold this spot all the time.
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Old 05-02-19, 15:21   #30
dobby
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeadParrot View Post
BB overshove is a desire to close the betting.
Am I massively oversimplifying this as potential weakness?
happy to call off 100k (effectively) with a drawing hand (which we are ahead of) or weak pair (which we beat a lot) but doesn't want us in it at all?
I'm WAY out of practice so genuinely interested in knowing if my thinking is just dumb
You're happy to get 800k in, when the BB has you covered with just the FD and a possible over card??

I'd expect BB to show up with AQ, KQ here quite often. Possibly 22 or 44 but less likely imo.

I'm happy to just call the 135k from BTN but fold to a BB shove and crack on.
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Old 05-02-19, 15:45   #31
Nic
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DeadParrot View Post
BB overshove is a desire to close the betting.
Am I massively oversimplifying this as potential weakness?
happy to call off 100k (effectively) with a drawing hand (which we are ahead of) or weak pair (which we beat a lot) but doesn't want us in it at all?
I'm WAY out of practice so genuinely interested in knowing if my thinking is just dumb
The BB lead, then overshove looks to me like he has the best hand now but is afraid of the flush draw. He probably has top and bottom or small set. He has just shipped in 800k which is well over 100 BBs.

Unlike a cash game, hero needs to air on the side of preserving his stack in a tourney, rather than lean towards CALLING a massive shove of over 100bbs when the EV of that call is close enough to neutral ( even if you are getting a small % of positive long term equity).

I haven't ran the numbers but A8c is not performing too well vs the two ranges. It's close to neutral / slightly profitable I'd say vs the 2 villain's ranges after the large side pot etc is worked out. (BTN should have KK or similar, maybe set QQQ in main smaller pot)

to reiterate, you should try avoid CALLING off a large number of BBs for your tourney life even if it's a marginally profitable call in terms of chip EV. It differs to cash games in this way, where in a cash game if you have 40% equity and are getting odds over 6/4, it's a call.
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Old 07-02-19, 13:07   #32
Dice75
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Meant to wrap this up earlier.

In game your first reaction is call, i gots NF draw (funny enough the first two people i told the hand to say the same before they actually think about the hand). D2D operates a shot clock so after using a 30 sec card so as not make a rash decision and taking the minute to try assign hands/ranges i sigh folded.

Button had 22 for a set & BB had Q7 for a pair & FD.

These were more or less as i expected though couldn't be sure which way around they were.

J rolled off on turn and BB went on to ship tourney.
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