IPB Hero Our Conor Memorial Thread - (Horses Betting Obv)

[bohsman]

Some fantastic tipping today, hope yous made some decent money.

[Marsden02]

Hit the crossbar for £9.50. Did it running out the door this morning. 4th winner gets 1.5k more

[Fonkey]

Dodging Bullets is top rated in the Supreme and already has a rating good enough to win an average Supreme Novs afaik. This years field looks average at best tbh. If Ruby rates him ahead of DB he should be favourite.

Jezki has earned his tag as fav regardless of who Ruby rides IMO. As for Dodging Bullets I dont think he's good enough tbh!! This is the same British handicapper that had Brampour rated the same as Brave Inca at his best that's rated Dodging Bullets that high.

[bohsman]

Got started on my Cheltenham punting after a good day.

Jezki
Pique Sous
Bobs Worth
Reve DS
Hurricane Fly

[Pat Mustard]

Master Overseer(runs 15.10 Winc) has the strangest result profile of late. His last five results read: pulled up, winner, pulled up, winner, pulled up. Not even the case that when he's been pulled up they've been better races, one of the wins was a grade 3 handicap and one of the pulled up one was a class 3. Also doesn't seem to be anything dodgy from owners because the times he's won he's been going off at large enough prices. Just seems the horse either fancies it or couldn't be bothered on any given day.

He seems to enjoy it more on the heavy though which it'll be today, has won both times he's run over today's trip and won on his only previous run at Wincanton. Think the 8's on offer is very large, wouldn't advise each way with a seemingly all or nothing sort of horse though.

The Situation. Had him in double with my selection....gonna be a good weekend! Also post more in here more ya mad man

[Pat Mustard]

One to consider in the Cheltenham Antepost market.

The word from Mullins yard is that Pique Sous will definitely run in the supreme and Ruby will be on board.
Mullins reckons he is the most improved horse in the yard this year.
He’s available at 25’s at the moment and if that info is correct he can be expected to go off at least half that price.
He’s running on the flat tomorrow night in Dundalk, and if he doesn’t run over hurdles between now and Cheltenham he will be well under the radar.

Bet victor are going 25/1 (non-runner free bet offer.)

Beat Jezki by 10L in the champion bumper last year.
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/n...-buzz-for-sous

horse broke my heart last year. defo has the ability..small few quid ante post to try get something back off her i suppose

[horatio1]

Gold falcon 1950 dun. I thought they strangled this lto over 6 never put into the race , tried to run up the arse of everything and stayed on to be nearest at finish. Runs over 7f tonight and is a decent price at 12/1.

[Guest]

Got 2 for catterick today, Morning Royalty in 3.20 currently 4/1 with PP and Quite the Man ew in 3.55 currently 12/1 wit PP

[amberleaf]

One to consider in the Cheltenham Antepost market.

The word from Mullins yard is that Pique Sous will definitely run in the supreme and Ruby will be on board.
Mullins reckons he is the most improved horse in the yard this year.
He’s available at 25’s at the moment and if that info is correct he can be expected to go off at least half that price.
He’s running on the flat tomorrow night in Dundalk, and if he doesn’t run over hurdles between now and Cheltenham he will be well under the radar.

Bet victor are going 25/1 (non-runner free bet offer.)

Beat Jezki by 10L in the champion bumper last year.
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/n...-buzz-for-sous

thats a very good offer(max 100),thinking about rebel fitz @ 50s for the ch,IFhe does turn up,would he be in the top 5 of the betting...or am i being delerious.

[premierstone]

thats a very good offer(max 100),thinking about rebel fitz @ 50s for the ch,IFhe does turn up,would he be in the top 5 of the betting...or am i being delerious.

In short yes

Ok he may be shorter than 50's if he turned up but top 5?? Hurricane Fly, Daraln, Grandouet, Zarkandar, Rock on Ruby, Binocular and Cinders and Ashes would all be ahead of him in the market and he would be on an equal footing with the likes of Countrywide Flame, Raya Star, Grumeti and Peddlers Cross.

He is currently rated 155, so over a stone to find and has never even ran outside of Ireland nevermind at Cheltenham and has only been seen once this season which was a poor run behind Captain Cee Bee.

All that however has been factored into the price, the thing is he wont be going unless he shows a big improvement in the interim and if he does hw will be shorter than 50's but he most certainly wont be in the top 5 in the betting unless it cuts up beyond recognition.

[Wesley Harms]

Peddlers Cross

Jason Maguire surely rides Peddlers if he runs? C&A won a bad supreme and has been brutal since

[premierstone]

Jason Maguire surely rides Peddlers if he runs? C&A won a bad supreme and has been brutal since

Tough choice alright, don't think he will have to make it though as the WH looks far more winnable for Peddler's, Cinders and Ashes has been disapointing but has hated the ground and he did have Darlan behind him in that Supreme - fully agree it was sub standard though.

[Wesley Harms]

Tough choice alright, don't think he will have to make it though as the WH looks far more winnable for Peddler's, Cinders and Ashes has been disapointing but has hated the ground and he did have Darlan behind him in that Supreme - fully agree it was sub standard though.

Huge overreaction to Darlan running faster over half a mile that those others in the Christmas Hurdle. Form is worthless

[premierstone]

Huge overreaction to Darlan running faster over half a mile that those others in the Christmas Hurdle. Form is worthless

An over reaction yes, but I definitely see him as a contender I thought he was the horse to take out of last years Supreme and has definitely 'grown up' since, the Christmas Hurdle was a crawl as you say but he showed he has a tremendous turn of foot. I like he's technique though he gets from one side of the hurdle to the other quicker than any other horse iin the race apart from perhaps Hurricane Fly. And he travels better than anyone apart from the aforementioned Fly and notably Grandouet.

He shouldnt be anywhere near 4/1 but he is a live contender.

[robinblinds]

don't usually post on this thread but please indulge me for a moment.

Explain why you think last years supreme was sub standard?
Sub standrard to what?

2009 : Go Native - time 4mins+
2010 : Menorah - 3m56s
2011 : Al Ferof - 3m52.1s
2012 : C&A - 3m52.7s

[robinblinds]

...and incidentally, both Al Ferof and C&A beat Hurricane Fly's time when winning the 2011 Champion Hurdle.

[Aya14]

don't usually post on this thread but please indulge me for a moment.

Explain why you think last years supreme was sub standard?
Sub standrard to what?

2009 : Go Native - time 4mins+
2010 : Menorah - 3m56s
2011 : Al Ferof - 3m52.1s
2012 : C&A - 3m52.7s

Too early to judge the line of form from 2012 SN Hurdle. Ground and inclement weather haven't given many a chance to show if they've progressed IMO.

I don't think '09 to '11 were substandard either fwiw

[premierstone]

You cannot take times in isolation like that Robin, far too many other factors in play, it is quite clear that despite Simon Claisse's claims the ground on the first day last year was clearly genuine Good ground and not the Good to Soft as declared, if anything it was on the firm side of Good. And in 2010 if I remember correctly they even went as far as to change the official going after the 5th race, something unheard of previously.

Race tactics and the absence of a pacemaker/genuine frontrunner will impact on racetimes aswell.

For any real beneficial analysis based on racetimes firstly you need a 100% accurate/trustworthy going description, which less face it Simon Claisse is not going to provide and even with this the only proper analysis that can be done is by comparing sectionals.

[robinblinds]

But the ground was officially good.

And I too thought it was riding slower than good (was over there that day), which makes the 2012 SN quite a decent race.

I take your point about how the race pans out etc, but C&A cracked the 4th last (i think) and made a complete balls of the last too, which makes his and Darlan's run/times even better.

[Wesley Harms]

don't usually post on this thread but please indulge me for a moment.

Explain why you think last years supreme was sub standard?
Sub standrard to what?

2009 : Go Native - time 4mins+
2010 : Menorah - 3m56s
2011 : Al Ferof - 3m52.1s
2012 : C&A - 3m52.7s

Grands Crus ran a faster time when winning the Feltham last year than Kauto Star did when winning the King George an hour later.

Times, while obv a factor never tell the story of a race.

[robinblinds]

which means we are all at nothing so!

it was nice stopping by ... happy punting lads ...don't be mugs!

[Strewelpeter]

Someone in racing has to get a grip of the situation soon and introduce a standard measure for going (using the same depth measurement at 4 or 5 fixed points on each course )and measured sectional times for all races.
Its 2013 FFS!

[premierstone]

which means we are all at nothing so!

it was nice stopping by ... happy punting lads ...don't be mugs!

Not at all but racetimes are a pretty small part of the big picture and are far more usefull and relevant for Flat Racing where there are less variables, I have never really paid any intention to overall racetimes but I would put a huge emphasis on sectionals.

stop by more often..........ditto........we are all mugs its part of the territory!

[premierstone]

Someone in racing has to get a grip of the situation soon and introduce a standard measure for going (using the same depth measurement at 4 or 5 fixed points on each course )and measured sectional times for all races.
Its 2013 FFS!

Now your talking, we need independent readings using a standard method over a number of points of the course and ideally more readings, for example it the going was on the good side of good to soft announce it as GGS etc.

[robinblinds]

I am generally a 90% flat punter, so will bow to superior knowledge of NH racing.
Find it easier to work out the flat rather than introducing variables like the horse needing to jump 4ft ditches or 3ft garden fences on what essentially (this season) look like flooded farms.

As a wise man once said 'I'll say nothin' til I hear more'.

[Line Us]

Someone in racing has to get a grip of the situation soon and introduce a standard measure for going (using the same depth measurement at 4 or 5 fixed points on each course )and measured sectional times for all races.
Its 2013 FFS!

Would actually be simple to do, couple of soill mositure probes at various depths and points of a course, rain gauges, a water table meter and a data logger that would send the info live to a website, Would be a few k to set up max per course. Must be a reason that they don't.

[The Situation]

Miami Gator is dangerously well handicapped in the next at Wolver, has arguably the most impressive claimer in Britain on board too, be surprised if it doesn't place at least.

[robinblinds]

I also note a lot of talk around re: Cotton Mill - notably from Pricewise tipping him up.

Having watched that race (Neptune) numerous times I think Cotton Mill was never going to stay up the hill. He actually fell at the last when minus his pilot. Maybe the crowd freaked him out but he was made a lot of use when bringing Simonsig along ...

Surely its between Zarkandar and Grandouet?

[amberleaf]

One to consider in the Cheltenham Antepost market.

The word from Mullins yard is that Pique Sous will definitely run in the supreme and Ruby will be on board.
Mullins reckons he is the most improved horse in the yard this year.
He’s available at 25’s at the moment and if that info is correct he can be expected to go off at least half that price.
He’s running on the flat tomorrow night in Dundalk, and if he doesn’t run over hurdles between now and Cheltenham he will be well under the radar.

Bet victor are going 25/1 (non-runner free bet offer.)

Beat Jezki by 10L in the champion bumper last year.
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/n...-buzz-for-sous

looking good with this,best price 20s now,(16s bet victor) good call

http://www.irishracing.com/news?prid=66413&headline=Pique-Sous-books-Cheltenham-ticket

[amberleaf]

thats a very good offer(max 100),thinking about rebel fitz @ 50s for the ch,IFhe does turn up,would he be in the top 5 of the betting...or am i being delerious.

In short yes

Ok he may be shorter than 50's if he turned up but top 5?? Hurricane Fly, Daraln, Grandouet, Zarkandar, Rock on Ruby, Binocular and Cinders and Ashes would all be ahead of him in the market and he would be on an equal footing with the likes of Countrywide Flame, Raya Star, Grumeti and Peddlers Cross.

He is currently rated 155, so over a stone to find and has never even ran outside of Ireland nevermind at Cheltenham and has only been seen once this season which was a poor run behind Captain Cee Bee.

All that however has been factored into the price, the thing is he wont be going unless he shows a big improvement in the interim and if he does hw will be shorter than 50's but he most certainly wont be in the top 5 in the betting unless it cuts up beyond recognition.

right so,thats that sorted,anyone one have a suggestion on how to play the offer with bet victor.

[Pat Mustard]

Tracker

NUTIN FANCY (16.20 Ffos Las) beaten on the line by a selection of mine a couple of weeks ago..anything close to that performance will see this win. I think it going.off pretty short for a race like this. Anything over 5/2 I think I'll have a bit of it.

HEATH HUNTER (Ffos Las 16.50) apparently left J. Culloty..don't remember why I put this in and didnt watch race replay..All the note says is "classy animal"..certainly looks it on paper and after its last run. WonLTO.Won't be much of a price but will probably have a double with.other selection.

Not in tracker...but think Super Duty is WAY over priced @ 3/1 even if race is super competitive novices. Will have a bit of 3's for small money

Love to hear opinions on welsh hurdle if any1 has any btw...

[amberleaf]

Internationalapeal in the bumper in Ffos Las @ 11/4,looks like a three horse race(famous last words)has A P McCoy on board today for Rebecca Curtis/T43 Partners hopefully go one better today.Heath Hunter & Benefique Royale the obv. dangers.

[Percy007]

This is a good read and may be of interest to a few in here.

https://skydrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=4446EA4AAAC24750!182&app=Word&authkey=!AHnzHovVz9NY6Kc

[The Situation]

Not often I'd play in the place market but think Rupert Bear(13.00 Wetherby) has solid claims at 11/2. You'd imagine there's something less exposed in the field to win it but can't see it being completely out of the shake up for minor places, def value in the price.

[amberleaf]

small bet on Love Rory in the 2.50 Punchestown for me today,trained by enda bolger who has a great record in this (also has arabella boy running).just a 5 year old & very Interesting to see how he gets on with support in the betting.still a little 5/1 around and worth a pop.

[jazzyfish]

beevers town 3.25

[Marsden02]

cant get on

[amberleaf]

suppose all eyes will be on doncaster today,looking into the bonuses the bookmakers are offering,some real value to be got there,the bet 50 and get a free 50 bet when used in the cheltenham ante-post market in effect doubling the odds when both are used on the same horse,well worth looking into imo.

[corigi]

suppose all eyes will be on doncaster today,looking into the bonuses the bookmakers are offering,some real value to be got there,the bet 50 and get a free 50 bet when used in the cheltenham ante-post market in effect doubling the odds when both are used on the same horse,well worth looking into imo.

Which Bookies offering that special?

Any of the ones I looked at you had to bet the €50 and then within 24 hours of the bet settling you could use the €50 Free Bet (stake not returned) on something else therefor you could not use it on same horse to gain the Double odds

[luckforsome]

...horrible to see darlan go down like that...it looked really painful as well...good horse lost...

[Strewelpeter]

Ugh!

Thats horrible

[bohsman]

3 horses in the space of a couple of hours, horrific stuff.

[westlife]

Just witnessed the worst, inappropriate interview ever... Matt Chapman interviewing Peter Casey and his poor Mrs. In the kitchen with the 70something year old woman and asks her... " comon, bring us into the bedroom where all the action happens"..the lady is absolutely mortified. when she politely declines the offer he then keeps at her and you can see this "old school" lady getting more and more embarressed.

Just because the hubby is a little nutty does not mean this lady is.... Horrible stuff!

[Foxy]

Just copped on to something I think. @Westlife, did you present a cheltenham preview night in UCD last year by any chance or is my memory playing tricks on me ?

[westlife]

Just copped on to something I think. @Westlife, did you present a cheltenham preview night in UCD last year by any chance or is my memory playing tricks on me ?

Not sure if this is a good idea or not but.....yes:

[Foxy]

Not sure if this is a good idea or not but.....yes:

Ah I'd never copped on until just there is all, I'm a tad slow with these things!

[The Situation]

Bandstand in the 15:40 is worth an ew punt at 10's. Has a record of two wins and two 2nd's in his 4 races at the track, last win here was in the same class race off the same mark (76) as he'll run tomorrow. They've been stopping him last few races to get him down to a winable mark again and tomorrow should be the day they have a crack at it at his fav track. A lot of exposed types at the head of the market, Sans loi a potential danger, Brian Elison yard always dangerous around Southwell.

[amberleaf]

Which Bookies offering that special?

Any of the ones I looked at you had to bet the €50 and then within 24 hours of the bet settling you could use the €50 Free Bet (stake not returned) on something else therefor you could not use it on same horse to gain the Double odds

indeed too good to be true.

...horrible to see darlan go down like that...it looked really painful as well...good horse lost...

horrific to say the least.

[Marsden02]

Bandstand in the 15:40 is worth an ew punt at 10's. Has a record of two wins and two 2nd's in his 4 races at the track, last win here was in the same class race off the same mark (76) as he'll run tomorrow. They've been stopping him last few races to get him down to a winable mark again and tomorrow should be the day they have a crack at it at his fav track. A lot of exposed types at the head of the market, Sans loi a potential danger, Brian Elison yard always dangerous around Southwell.

4/1 fav on Boyles

[Mike]

Bandstand in the 15:40 is worth an ew punt at 10's. Has a record of two wins and two 2nd's in his 4 races at the track, last win here was in the same class race off the same mark (76) as he'll run tomorrow. They've been stopping him last few races to get him down to a winable mark again and tomorrow should be the day they have a crack at it at his fav track. A lot of exposed types at the head of the market, Sans loi a potential danger, Brian Elison yard always dangerous around Southwell.

4/1 fav on Boyles

was 9-1 on PP when i blindly backed it this morning, also at 4s now

[bohsman]

13 40 Supa seeker
15 40 Bandstand
1 25 rock critic

My bets for the day, all from reading posts here and on boards, should really learn how to read form, start a tracker etc at some point.

[The Situation]

Hugh Taylor gave it as his morning pick, curiously similar write up, obv subscribes.

Yeah but that explains the big move.

[amberleaf]

Sedgefield gone so the fiver yankee becomes a fiver trixie

1.40 Lady Lyrath @ 6/1 and Bandstand @ 4/1,sticking in Mad Brian @ 2/1 in the 1.55 fairyhouse

return of €900 odd if she clicks,good luck all

[amberleaf]

robbing one from irc for one last tenner each way on Twin Plan in the 3.55 fairyhouse @ 8/1,wide open betting wise but is trained by james lamb who's stable is in great form at present,has had a few spins on the point to point winning well a few weeks back,give her a whirl at the odds.

[Strewelpeter]

Defy Logic still being 25/1 for neptune is huge, but have a little saver on the Bartlett just in case they go there instead.

[bohsman]

Defy Logic still being 25/1 for neptune is huge, but have a little saver on the Bartlett just in case they go there instead.

Guessing the rest of the field were donkeys today but that was just too easy, into 16/1 with PP and B365

[Marsden02]

robbing one from irc for one last tenner each way on Twin Plan in the 3.55 fairyhouse @ 8/1,wide open betting wise but is trained by james lamb who's stable is in great form at present,has had a few spins on the point to point winning well a few weeks back,give her a whirl at the odds.

Boom

[Strewelpeter]

Guessing the rest of the field were donkeys today but that was just too easy, into 16/1 with PP and B365

The one that fell at the last is a fairly solid mark and he was probably running ahead of it.
I'm no great fan of Nolan's but from what I've heard and from what I saw today he could almost be done for 'using the racecourse as a training ground' ! Running to a course standard time on that ground over the bare 2 miles was only a blowout for it.
There are a few in the Neptune I wouldn't underestimate but this lad could be a bit special.

[Wesley Harms]

Couldn't save that one, this is from your twitter

[Fonkey]

Anyone know if there is a Cheltenham preview night on at Leopardstown again this year??