RUGBY BETTING THREAD

[amberleaf]

Ospreys available at 2/1 on Paddy Power Enhanced bet (max 20) is that online only,or can you get in shops?

yup -12 looks worth a nibble alright

[Emmet]

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/rugby-enhanced-specials/rugby-enhanced-specials?ev_oc_grp_ids=677463&AFF_ID=10063954

[amberleaf]

might call to a few shops this evening,see if they'll give it to me,cant call the Ospreys/munster with poc not playing and rog just making the bench,better off just double-up and take a chance with the -12,i see on o/c that sj didnt price it up yet,kinda strange they,re first out of the traps most of the time

[Micknail]

Cardiff not playing for a start. Ospreys available at 2/1 on Paddy Power Enhanced bet (max 20) - outrageous value considering they're 8/15 elsewhere.

Leinster to smash Glasgow

Ooops!

I got 25 on it?

[x] Betting fish

[Mickey Rosa]

2/1 is irresistible.

[Mickey Rosa]

Threw together a blog post with my betting picks for the weekend which are mainly rugby, give it a look and let me know your thoughts http://greyhoundowner.blogspot.ie/20...s-punting.html

[Emmet]

very good blog post. Agree with pretty much everything on the rugby front.

just a typo, you say in the block of text that you can get 11/10 on +15 for Ireland when you mean 10/11. Worth going back and fixing imo!

[Mickey Rosa]

Cheers, fixed that thanks for the heads up.

[Emmet]

(go again, you've -15 at 10/11 as the value in the text, but taken the +15 at 10/11 at the end)

[Guest]

Threw together a blog post with my betting picks for the weekend which are mainly rugby, give it a look and let me know your thoughts http://greyhoundowner.blogspot.ie/20...s-punting.html

I like your -15 on the all blacks to win.
They have 3 debutants but are all quality players i remember watching Richie Macaw make his debut against us and getting man of the match.
Savea on the wing is a beast and with Dagg and Guildford making uo the back 3 very potent esp if we kick the ball away kidney special.

Front row were very shallow and the kiwi backrow Of Read Macaw and Vito replacing the brilliant Kaino is super strong, better than ours even though its one of our strengths.

Sonny Bill gets lost of stick but hes been a major part of the chiefs brilliant attacking play hes very strong and even getting double teamed gets offloads away.

I fear like when i was younger well get drubbed by 25 26 points esp if scrum implodes and the all blacks play to there potential.

The under 20s were very lucky in the 6 nations to keep the score down but young Furlong git the better of a super15 player with 20 starts whos his teams first choice loosehead.
Henderson looks like a future international and the backrow is an excellent unit too.

Two of our trys against S a were charge downs and England are very strong at this level.
Nice blog most peeps who start one dont keep it up good luck.

[Mickey Rosa]

(go again, you've -15 at 10/11 as the value in the text, but taken the +15 at 10/11 at the end)

Finally got it right, note to self don't try blog when tired. Appreciate the corrections though

[Keane]

We're on NZ -15 as well, hopefully it's a case of great minds thinking alike rather than fools seldom differing!

[amberleaf]

Threw together a blog post with my betting picks for the weekend which are mainly rugby, give it a look and let me know your thoughts http://greyhoundowner.blogspot.ie/20...s-punting.html

very good indeed,really like the Junior Rugby World parts,nice one

[ciarraithuaidh]

Threw together a blog post with my betting picks for the weekend which are mainly rugby, give it a look and let me know your thoughts http://greyhoundowner.blogspot.ie/20...s-punting.html

Good shouts mainly, nice one. Good call on the u-20's..just pipped by a stronger team in the end.
Just one thing, Earls will NOT be playing at 12 2mrw...he will be at 13. He will still have to be sharp defensively against Conrad smith, but he will not be defending SBW's channel. Once you actually take SBW low, he is actually not the hardest to tackle though..the problem is he has an outrageous offload and keeps attacks going with it often.
Anyway, I think -15 is a good call given our scrum will prob be minced and our pack is short on beef with Ferris/POC out.

[Mickey Rosa]

Small bet on England +8 at evens

[Mickey Rosa]

Thank you Ben Foden that was a serious finish

[KevIRL]

Nice shout, ta for that

[Mickey Rosa]

A roundup of this weekend's picks http://greyhoundowner.blogspot.ie/20...d-roundup.html

[Mickey Rosa]

Two picks for tomorrow's Junior World Championship games http://greyhoundowner.blogspot.ie/20...pionships.html

[Emmet]

braver man than I. I hate the long handicaps. Far too much variance for my liking.

[Mickey Rosa]

In general I'd agree with you, but much bigger winning margins in JWC than normal comps though.

[Emmet]

Big changes from Ruddock

IRELAND (v Italy): M Sherlock (Clontarf/Leinster); C Finn (Buccaneers/Connacht), P Nelson (Dungannon/Ulster), C Farrell (Dungannon/Ulster), S Coghlan Murray (UCD/Leinster); J Carty (Buccaneers/Connacht), L McGrath (UCD/Leinster); D Merrey (Clontarf/Leinster), J Rael (Garryowen/Munster), P Reilly (Lansdowne/Leinster), A O’Connor (UCD/Leinster), I Henderson (QUB/Ulster), A Conneely (Corinthians/Connacht), J van der Flier (UCD/Leinster), J Conan (Old Belvedere/Leinster).

Replacements: N Scannell (Dolphin/Munster), T Furlong (Clontarf/Leinster), J Cawley (Old Belvedere/Leinster), T Beirne (Lansdowne/Leinster), S Buckley (Garryowen/Munster), K Marmion (Corinthians/Connacht), C Marsh (Dublin University/Leinster), S Olding (Belfast Harlequins/Ulster).

http://www.irishtimes.com/sports/rug...medium=twitter

In case you hadn't seen the team changes. I don't know much about Carty, I believe he is a good 10, but plays a different game from Hanrahan. Wonder how this might affect us "gelling"

new front rows, one second row, back row, half backs and centres

[Mickey Rosa]

Saw them alright, would actually prefer if Marsh was starting think he is a serious prospect. The lads will know it's bonus point or bust, and on a good pitch against a slow Italian backline should be able to get their running game going.

[Emmet]

puke on the 29

[Mickey Rosa]

Sickened, quick round up blog post http://greyhoundowner.blogspot.ie/20...ustration.html

[Guest]

Any opinions on tommorows games?
Ireland game is -23pts for a new zealand win.
Id actually still consider some value in that didnt see last weeks but by all accounts we were murdered.
Outfought outthought out muscled and outpaced.
Cant see any changes happening this week.
Murray at scrum half is just too slow heard it said he does a better job than Mccaw at slowing down our ruck ball .
Think rain could happen but it wont be enough of a leveller for the huge gap in the sides.
Savea got 3 tries on his first appearance i expect another hiding tommorow regardless of the weather.

[Mickey Rosa]

My picks for tomorrow mornings games http://greyhoundowner.blogspot.ie/20...va-espana.html

[Mickey Rosa]

Nearly a great morning, view on England v South Africa here http://greyhoundowner.blogspot.ie/20...-sickness.html

[Keane]

Anyone remember what the spread was last week between England and the Boks?

[KevIRL]

Anyone remember what the spread was last week between England and the Boks?

Small bet on England +8 at evens

.

[Mickey Rosa]

South Africa threw the handicap away in the second half. Steyn hasn't been able to hit a barn door the last two weeks!

[Mickey Rosa]

Back to the Junior World Championships today. Gone with Wales and Ireland http://greyhoundowner.blogspot.ie/20...eh-offaly.html

[eagle eye]

Super Rugby Grand final at 8.35. Really like the Chiefs -7 in this one. The Sharks have to be very tired with all the travelling they've done over the past few weeks. I think the Chiefs could win this by a big margin.

[KevIRL]

Thoughts on the weekend Quad nation internationals?

New Zealand to beat the spread v Australia?

[Keane]

PP special moneyback on first/last tryscorers in both games if the first try is scored by a forward is very good.

[Guest]

Thoughts on the weekend Quad nation internationals?

New Zealand to beat the spread v Australia?

Thought this thread ha died.

Australia New Zealand
Kurtley Beale 15 Israel Dagg
Adam Ashley-Cooper 14 Cory Jane
Rob Horne 13 Ma'a Nonu
Anthony Fainga'a 12 Sonny Bill Williams
Digby Ioane 11 Hosea Gear
Berrick Barnes 10 Daniel Carter
Will Genia 9 Aaron Smith
Scott Higginbotham 8 Kieran Read
David Pocock (captain) 7 Richie McCaw (capt)
Dave Dennis 6 Liam Messam
Nathan Sharpe 5 Samuel Whitelock
Sitaleki Timani 4 Luke Romano
Sekope Kepu 3 Owen Franks
Tatafu Polota Nau 2 Keven Mealamu
Benn Robinson 1 Tony Woodcock

Stephen Moore 16 Andrew Hore
James Slipper 17 Ben Franks
Rob Simmons 18 Brodie Retallick
Radike Samo 19 Victor Vito
Michael Hooper 20 Piri Weepu
Nick Phipps 21 Aaron Cruden
Drew Mitchell 22 Ben Smith

After a super rugby season when the Chiefs played great rugby and won the super 15 and Australian teams played quite poorly bar a late surge by an injury hit reds team.

On home soil oz always put up a big fight Barnes at 10 is more stable than Cooper but wont create as much Kieran Read is back from injury and is a class act along with Mccaw and a hugely impressive Liam Messan.

Think the kiwis also have the edge in the front row with vastly experienced Mealamu and Woodcock.

The centers despite missing Conrad Smith should make hay and the rest of the backline is loaded with pace and a good bench.
I expect Cruden to get 25 mins he has been super all season for the chiefs new zealand by 11.

Too much power too much class even in Sydney

[KevIRL]

Thoughts on the weekend Quad nation internationals?

New Zealand to beat the spread v Australia?

Last minute penalty to do it.

[Emmet]

PP special moneyback on first/last tryscorers in both games if the first try is scored by a forward is very good.

lol at tryscorer bets punts bingo

[Guest]

Last minute penalty to do it.

Ya some sweat Janes knock on from Sonny Bills off load to finish it was criminal.
lucky was not the six nations no bonus for losing by less than 7 and Carters last min kick helped many on handicap i think.

Think even though South Africa are one dimensional could batter argies but 15pt handicap ill be staying away.

[Keane]

lol at tryscorer bets punts bingo

I like how you know everything since you started working for a bookie, mbn!

[Emmet]

I like how you know everything since you started working for a bookie, mbn!

It is.

Question why these are always the markets that seem to have the mbs on them?

[Keane]

It is.

Question why these are always the markets that seem to have the mbs on them?

I'm not going to spend any part of my day arguing with you about sports betting, too hungover.

[Emmet]

I'm not going to spend any part of my day arguing with you about sports betting, too hungover.

I'll give you a hint. The overround is effectively infinite.

[Keane]

I'll give you a hint. The overround is effectively infinite.

This is startling new information, time to reassess.

[Guest]

What's mbs?

[thechamp87]

What's mbs?

Money back specials

[bustamoves]

I'll give you a hint. The overround is effectively infinite.

Obv ridic overround but are u saying there isn't frequently some value?

Don't know and like football presumably those bets are generally awful value but I was of the opinion that the first try/goalscorer market should definitely still be a place to hunt for potential value, no?

Enlighten me/us further plz

[Emmet]

For me, Rugby is far too situational to have any sort of confidence in a first tryscorer bet.

Obvious misprices (and subsequently value) are only evident when they are beyond obvious.

If I have SBW at 7/1 for first try scorer, is that value or not value?
If I have Marcus Horan at 22/1 for first try scorer is that value or not value?

Now when you see Tommy Bowe at 22/1, it's clear as day that's a poor price. But that won't arise.

Don't forget that these bets aren't pushes when the games finish 12-6 with no try scored either.

They're just bingo. Not saying that there isn't a winner in bingo either, but it's still just bingo!

[Keane]

For me, Rugby is far too situational to have any sort of confidence in a first tryscorer bet.

Obvious misprices (and subsequently value) are only evident when they are beyond obvious.

If I have SBW at 7/1 for first try scorer, is that value or not value?
If I have Marcus Horan at 22/1 for first try scorer is that value or not value?

Now when you see Tommy Bowe at 22/1, it's clear as day that's a poor price. But that won't arise.

Don't forget that these bets aren't pushes when the games finish 12-6 with no try scored either.

They're just bingo. Not saying that there isn't a winner in bingo either, but it's still just bingo!

This is mostly rubbish and amounts to the fact that you don't know how to price up the market and therefore assume it's indecipherable in general. lol @ "rugby is situational", wtf?

Also, bingo.

SPOILER

[Emmet]

This is mostly rubbish and amounts to the fact that you don't know how to price up the market and therefore assume it's indecipherable in general. lol @ "rugby is situational", wtf?

Also, bingo.

SPOILER

assuming much tongue in cheek here.

What did you assume was fair price for the above bets?

re: situational, trys off first phase moves have predictable finishers. Now add one or two breakdowns to the play and see how often those predictable finishers are involved anymore.

(Anytime tryscorer is clearly a different market btw - would love to hear how you would price the difference between an anytime scorer and a first tryscorer)

[Keane]

It's not even necessary to bother pricing a bet like this when there's a MBS, it's super simple stuff. fwiw he was between 6/1 and 9/1 across the range of bookies iirc, 9/1 was best market price.

[Emmet]

It's not even necessary to bother pricing a bet like this when there's a MBS

that's not what I was talking about.

I said there's a reason the MBS are always offered on this market.

The market itself is what I was laughing at people betting on.

[Keane]

that's not what I was talking about.

I said there's a reason the MBS are always offered on this market.

The market itself is what I was laughing at people betting on.

Ah yeah, but in fairness most people are crap at betting on every market anyway so it's all the same! Pretty sure I've never punted a try/goalscorer market without there being a special on it actually, you're right it's a terrible market in its natural state.

[amberleaf]

big step forward in irelands bid to hold a rugby world cup

http://www.irishexaminer.com/sport/browne-says-gaa-response-huge--boost-for-world-cup-bid-204840.html

[Guest]

More weekend rugby Nz play Oz in Eden park a fortress for them and its going to be pain for oz this weekend i feel.
They were very poor and the score line somewhat flattered them i feel last saturday.

Kurtley Beale was brutal and is dropped this weekend and Quade Cooper is back at 10.

When hes good hes great Cooper has a a tendancy to go missing and has had injury and personal problems this season he is also a born Kiwi so will get dogs abuse in Auckland.

The 10 12 channel with Barnes at 12 looks very weak the solid but unspectacular Pat Mccabe is missed for his tackling alone.

Money Bill and Nonu and the Kiwi back row will be looking to run at it hard.

Pocock is out a massive loss and young Hooper who has been good is drafted in but will be up against it.

Read and Corey Jane both dropped passes last week which would have resulted in trys Messam was a bit sloppy too but was just rustyness i feel.

I expect a clinical New zealand win by 22 23 points and 4 try bonus
10/11 -13pts at sky bet at moment .

Weather is promised dry some cloud so no excuse for running rugby not to be on show.

Argentina take on South africa in BuenOS Aires and after a very poor opener Hernandez kicking useless garryowens the whole match didnt help hes out this week no huge loss given form.

They are not as good as they used be peaked in 2007 an there pack is really showing there age.
South africa have a solid team play boring rugby but very effective and they have agreater threat outwide and Steyn seems to have rediscovered his kicking boots.

the handicap is argies plus 8 but i fancy the saffers to cover it not by much.

Any one else got any thoughts?

[Emmet]

HC for SA Arg should be 13

[Guest]

HC for SA Arg should be 13

Missing Du Plessis is huge though sub hooker played great stuff last week.

Much and all as Argies play with huge heart and commitment cants ee where they gonna score trys.
The set piece is creaking Roncero looks fit for the knackers yard and sadly no Contemponi
but Meyer plays such a sterile game plan a slow game will prob suit them at home.
Cannot see them winning but would love it.

[Guest]

NZ beat oz 22-0 was i spot on though they were not there clinical best.
Conrad Smith could be back next week and i fear for argentina away after the huge effort they put in.
mendoza is 800 kms from Buenos aires didnt do my research and 800 mt altitude should have suited boks but they are go awful to watch and play horrible stuff.

Not having Brussow in the team is criminal but south african coaches always want big burly backrowers.

Handicap on paddypower is currently 28 points can see argentina getting hammered due to fatigue after that massive effort in mendoza and the all blacks have been impressive but have not cut loose yet next week will be a massacre.all blacks by 40

[Guest]

NZ beat oz 22-0 was i spot on though they were not there clinical best.
Conrad Smith could be back next week and i fear for argentina away after the huge effort they put in.
mendoza is 800 kms from Buenos aires didnt do my research and 800 mt altitude should have suited boks but they are go awful to watch and play horrible stuff.

Not having Brussow in the team is criminal but south african coaches always want big burly backrowers.

Handicap on paddypower is currently 28 points can see argentina getting hammered due to fatigue after that massive effort in mendoza and the all blacks have been impressive but have not cut loose yet next week will be a massacre.all blacks by 40

Two weeks till next game argies definitely need the rest after huge effort.

[amberleaf]

pro 12 back this weekend irish teams in action

friday
7.05 ulster v warriors -- bbc ni/alba
sat
6.30 scarlets v leinster -- s4c
8.00 Edinburgh v munster -- bbc alba/rte
5.00 connacht v blues -- no tv listing which is a pity.