RUGBY BETTING THREAD

[amberleaf]

think the line in my own head anyways to be at -12 .. given that i'm taking this point of view,is the 10/11 -6 better than evens -7?

Yes.

i'm a little lost here,care to explain why?

[Pistol Peter]

You are losing out on a full point where the point is the most likely outcome in this game, ie France win by 7.
I think for neutral ev you would need something like 2.07/2.08 -7.5 just based on previous prices for games where the line is similar.

[eagle eye]

Okay so the Crusaders seem to be kind of moping over the loss of Dan Carter. They have a strong team regardless but the Chiefs have come out of the blocks firing and I don't just fancy them for the handicap tomorrow I fancy them for the win in the morning at 6.35am our time.

The Force last week gave a great game to the Reds before falling apart right at the finish, expect more of the same this weekend and back the Hurricanes to win straight.

I'll talk about Saturday later.

[amberleaf]

You are losing out on a full point where the point is the most likely outcome in this game, ie France win by 7.
I think for neutral ev you would need something like 2.07/2.08 -7.5 just based on previous prices for games where the line is similar.

very good point,but you're taking the view that the line at france -7 is the right line,i think its more like - 12 for a number of reasons,in other words i think the oc has got this one wrong.one of the most important components of this kind of bet is to try and set the hcp yourself,trust your judgement.i think that the french will win the more t/o ball,i just cant see this england team bringing the intensity that ireland had last weekend,thus the -7 @ evens is better than the -6 @10/11.its a Personal View i have on the outcome of this game, and in fairness over the 6 nations the book have got it more or less right so far,just think this one is wrong

[The Situation]

My one and only consistant rugby bet is an Italy first half handicap. Barely scrapped it against Ireland, +10 today @10/11. Game doesn't start for hours but feel the need to already say HOOOOOOOLLDDDD!!

Edit: Should really start opposing them in second halves as well, so Wales -11 2nd half handicap added.

[Jaysoose]

North & Bowe to get 2 or more tries each @ 30/1 for me...ten spot on it..

[Guest]

30/1 seems stingy.

[The Situation]

Ship the Italy first half HC, they always manage it somehow. Now floodgates open please.

[Guest]

Was on that one too. Looked like a no hoper from the 2nd minute.

[amberleaf]

took wales -15,sury italy cant keep this tackle rate up!

[The Situation]

G'wan Wales, finally broke the 2nd half hc despite the refs best efforts to screw me over!

[Guest]

yeah didn't look like they were gonna get there.

[shrapnel]

TBowe first tryscorer and Ireland to win by less than 12.5

and for the craic stuck a tenner on draw-ireland (HT-FT) at 19 to 1, and first score drop goal at 20 to 1. lols

[The Situation]

Everybody seems to be tipping Scotland +, never go too far wrong opposing the mass public's opinion. Small bit on Ireland -8 for a bit of interest.

[Guest]

Over 25.5 points at 2.2 is my only bet on this one. Think the handicaps are too tight.

[Guest]

Sick sweat on that one.

[shrapnel]

TBowe first tryscorer and Ireland to win by less than 12.5

and for the craic stuck a tenner on draw-ireland (HT-FT) at 19 to 1, and first score drop goal at 20 to 1. lols

was really counting on the ireland by less than 12.5 to save the day. not to be!!!

[Keane]

Ireland look to be getting it together in fairness.

[amberleaf]

took wales -15,sury italy cant keep this tackle rate up!

had another look at france in last weeks game,reshoved the lot on france - 7,think this a banker!

[Guest]

Agree that France -7 seems like free money. Harinordoquy for 1st try is my other bet on this one at 16/1, just going for a spinup with an almost empty account at Boyle's rather than withdrawing it.

[Guest]

Anyone else think France to win at 2/1 is pretty generous?

Said I wouldn't bet on Ireland at a 3 point handicap or shorter and that's exactly where they came in.

[amberleaf]

could'nt trust the french,my one and only bet this weekend in the 6 nations, is for rob kearney for the man of the match,with the english defence reckon there will be plenty of box kicks/garryown type plays,think ireland will try go around them,no better lad than the bold rob to chase them down,no prices up yet but should be working mans odds!

[The Situation]

Italy+2 half time HC at 19/20.

[amberleaf]

rob kearney @ 14/1,motm for the score,also went with ireland to win 11/8 for a little more.if anything, the irish are concestent, and wont do the headless chicken act of the french last week.small bet on italy @ 6/4

[Guest]

Couldn't stay away from France at 3/1 and I went Ita/Sco HT/FT at 7/1 for a bit of interest in that one.

[shrapnel]

hogg first tryscorer in the first.

fofana to score first in the wales game (losing bets refunded if north scores a try)

tuilagi to score first in the england game and bowe to score last (losing bets refunded in bowe scores a try)

[amberleaf]

S Parisse to score the first try (ingame ita/scot on pp)@18/1 tenner

[The Situation]

There's only 2 certainties in life. Death and Italy first half handicaps.

[Guest]

Feck Bergamasco missing that kick.

[westlife]

going to have a punt on Wales for the Six nations (11/4)... Feel that if it gets to be a decider in Cardiff on Paddys day, that fans, pride and place will drive them on to victory! Opinions?

Chickened out...... Was all smiles until the last few mins in the Ireland game... Knew my faith was then sealed... Ah well.

[eagle eye]

James O'Connor out of the game against his old club the Force. I think the Force are a stonking bet -2 on the handicap with that news. The Rebels are without both him and Kurtley Beale today. Force should win the war at the ruck and with the Rebels backs being weakened I'm expecting the Force to win it by 10.

[ciarraithuaidh]

James O'Connor out of the game against his old club the Force. I think the Force are a stonking bet -2 on the handicap with that news. The Rebels are without both him and Kurtley Beale today. Force should win the war at the ruck and with the Rebels backs being weakened I'm expecting the Force to win it by 10.

Meh..2 worst Australian teams, don't see that much between them really. Think the Rebels may actually ge the first win here.

[ciarraithuaidh]

Have been up the walls and not on here much, but just a few quick (late) tips for Super XV games later on.
Hurricanes v Cheetahs: 1st half highest scoring half, 1 unit @6/5. (Hurricanes score vast majority of pts in 1st half)
Cory Jane anytime tryscorer @7/5. 1 unit. (In great form,outstanding finisher)
Chiefs v Waratahs: 1st half highest scoring half. 1 unit @ evs. (Chiefs 70% and Tahs 50% of pts scored in 1st half so far, thus makes sense.)
Force v Reds: Force to win, 3 units @ 11/10. (Reds off a flight from Sith Ifrika after leaking 61 pts in Pretoria...looking very weary. Can't believe this price to be honest despite Force losing last week in Melbourne)
Stormers v Bulls: Bjorn Basson anytime try, 1 unit @12/5. (Facing Gio Aplon,smaller lighter winger who he has blasted through before a few times. Top Super 15 tryscorer already with 4 tries. If he gets a chance,pretty confident he will finish it)
Chiefs,Hurricanes,Force treble: 1 unit @11/4. Confident on 1st 2 @ home, Force should win also despite patchy form.

[eagle eye]

I'm not so sure about the canes, Cheetahs have been pretty decent so far without getting the results. Both of these teams start well and finish poorly so I do agree with the first half highest scoring bet.

The Chiefs are an enigma, they beat good teams and then lose to poorer opposition. The Reds have been terrible but never ever trust the Force to do anything.

For me the outstanding bet tomorrow is the Bulls to win at 7/4(Laddies and Stan James). The Stormers defense looked poor enough last weekend against the Lions. I can't see them competing with the Bulls who look like they are back at their best this season.

[eagle eye]

Just took the Chiefs -4 at halftime, I think they will come back out more organised. Love getting -4 with them 3 up already.

[amberleaf]

hmmm anyone else think the leinster -12 v blues @ evens (boyles) worth a pop this weekend?

[V for Vendetta]

hmmm anyone else think the leinster -12 v blues @ evens (boyles) worth a pop this weekend?

Sounds about right uk me. Leinster are only in 3rd gear at the minute. They'll be happy to grind a win and maybe get a flattering try or two in the last 20 minutes. I wouldn't be punting big on it.

[Emmet]

I'm on the +

(13 at evens avail on SportingBet, though I'm on the 10/11 +12 elsewhere)

[NewApproach]

The handicap of 7 is a couple of points more than I was expecting in the Munster Ulster game.

[amberleaf]

reckon there's a lot worse bets out there than ulster to win v munster @ 11/4,the guts of that ulster team have played week in week out for long while now,could give munster a right game,btw any one looking to punting the rugby with the bricks and morter bookies,hackett look the best value,could be wrong here but dont they use the stan james book?...anyway if so stanjames look to be best priced on a lot of the rugby markets!

[Guest]

reckon there's a lot worse bets out there than ulster to win v munster @ 11/4,the guts of that ulster team have played week in week out for long while now,could give munster a right game,btw any one looking to punting the rugby with the bricks and morter bookies,hackett look the best value,could be wrong here but dont they use the stan james book?...anyway if so stanjames look to be best priced on a lot of the rugby markets!

If Ferris starts id agree somewhat.
However without him Ulster are a different team be a shame for him to miss to quarter finals in a row.
Even if he starts he may not last the 80.
If he starts id have a small bet on Ulster with the handicap.

I think leinster are going to stuff Cardiff no Warburton no Roberts and club in turmoil players talking in the press goons like Henson going on piss ups the week before a big match.

Leinster were close to hammering Munster poor ref decisions and a slice more luck they could have had a few trys,
with competition for places huge in Leinster esp back row Mcloughlin or Jennings
wings and even front row cant see players letting up and taking it easy.

Cardiff have some excellent players Halfbenny Jenkins Cuthbert but dont have Leinsters strength and depth and an awesome bench too.

Will probably be the last tme we see Martyn Williams play who has been a super 7 for Cardiff Wales and the lions
Leinster by 21

[amberleaf]

ulster @ 100/1 to win the heineken

the price here varies greatly from anything from 100/1(boyles) down to 45/1(32red).tbh more of a g'wan ya good thing fun bet,tho they will be playing a under strenght tigers team at home next weekend,before heading to ASM Clermont Auvergne in what will be two very hard games for them,but they are playing well of late,winning at home v munster and away to edinburgh.still worth a score @ 100/1....just in case!

tell ya one thing,if ulster turnover munster,this will be some sweet bet given todays result in scotland with the semi in dublin

[Guest]

tell ya one thing,if ulster turnover munster,this will be some sweet bet given todays result in scotland with the semi in dublin

Best of luck thought they had no chance getting out of there group.
Hope they beat Munster and im sure they would beat Edinburgh in a (HOME) semi.

[The Situation]

Been told to smash Clermont +3. Any skeptics??

[amberleaf]

STAND UP FOR THE ULSTER MEN

[amberleaf]

just looking at the markets for the hc,the 11/4(laddies) about leinster/ulster straight forecast looks great value imo,clermont away will be a hard game for leinster but the way theyre playing with the player panel they have,reckon they will be well up to beating them in what is also a away game for clermont.ulster you would think will be too hot for edinburgh,wont be a walk in the park for ulster,but seem to be playing their best rugby in years,if it does end up a all irish final,just cant see ulster over turning,what is imo the best team by far in europe right now,if not the world!

[Keane]

If Clermont were coming to play Munster in the Aviva I don't think I'd be calling it an away game for Munster. Obv home advantage isn't worth exactly as much as always but Clermont are still very much the home team for a variety of reasons.

[amberleaf]

good point i guess,but munster playing in the aviva would be a little advantage for them,when you think of it, the international players within the munster camp(most of the starting line up i would think)would have had experience playing there with ireland so would be a little plus there
if the leinster/clermont was being played in the Stade de France then the same could be said for the international french players,but its not, the game is on in bordeaux,would'nt think a lot of clermont players have experience of playing there,irish teams tend to do well when looking for a result in club games in france,think this boils down to the teams on the day,and if you had to pick one team to go out to france and get a result,think it would be safe to say leinster would be top of a lot of peoples list

in the ulster game,the aviva has to be a advantage to the likes of ferris,trimble etc who have a good few international caps under their belts,in my mind it all points to leinster/ulster final with leinster being one step too far for ulster!

[amberleaf]

Leinster: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 David Kearney, 13 Brian O'Driscoll, 12 Fergus McFadden, 11 Luke Fitzgerald, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Eoin Reddan, 8 Sean O'Brien, 7 Dominic Ryan, 6 Kevin McLaughlin, 5 Brad Thorn, 4 Leo Cullen (capt), 3 Mike Ross, 2 Richardt Strauss, 1 Cian Healy.
Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Heinke van der Merwe, 18 Nathan White, 19 Devin Toner, 20 Shane Jennings, 21 Isaac Boss, 22 Ian Madigan, 23 Fionn Carr.

that looks a fairly serious looking starting line up for tonights game v ulster,and the bench not too shabby as well,from what i heard ulster will be more Intrested in the hc semi then showing off any training camp plays to the likes of edinburgh.with leinster think it will be more of the same with one or two positions up for grabs,with ulster think we know what the starting line up for the hc semi will be(barring injurys)best and ferris under wraps for tonight as well,that leinster -3 looks good to me anyways

[Keane]

It was -1 initially, would have liked it at that but were too slow. -3 is a different story.

[amberleaf]

missed the -1 and the -2 that was around yesterday,but still think the -3 is worth a little bet,Brian McLauhglin wasnt a happy camper after the big-wigs made the decision that he should step down,the hc is the big prize for him right now with a very real chance that they could get to the final,even win it.think they would burn the pro 12 to get their hands on the hc tbh.also think mclauglin would like nothing more then to serve out a little humble pie to a few people with in the ulster camp.dont think it will be walkover for leinster but cant see ulster giving this 110% as well,and with the form leinster have shown these last few weeks,the -3 still looks backable,dont think edinburgh will be up to much on sunday as well,could be worth a look the the hcp is up!

[Guest]

-2pts @10/11 still available with sky bet.
I fancy Leinster ulsters absetees Afoa Best and Ferris area huge loss and the prop Fitzpatrick has not played for 5 months

Its some ask for him to prop against Healy.
Leinster have only lost 1 of 16 games to ulster and there bench is very strong id expect it to be used heavily after 50 minutes.
With the pace of Cronin and Madigan coming and Ulster definitely having one eye on the heineken semi can see Leinster winning.

[amberleaf]

missed the -1 and the -2 that was around yesterday,but still think the -3 is worth a little bet,Brian McLauhglin wasnt a happy camper after the big-wigs made the decision that he should step down,the hc is the big prize for him right now with a very real chance that they could get to the final,even win it.think they would burn the pro 12 to get their hands on the hc tbh.also think mclauglin would like nothing more then to serve out a little humble pie to a few people with in the ulster camp.dont think it will be walkover for leinster but cant see ulster giving this 110% as well,and with the form leinster have shown these last few weeks,the -3 still looks backable,dont think edinburgh will be up to much on sunday as well,could be worth a look the the hcp is up!

as i was thinking edinburgh had a bit of a no show in cardiff yesterday,with the score ending up 38-13(the hcp was -13)but with the poor results from them of late,still think they could be a real game in them next weekend,reckon they could treat this as a cup final,come out guns blazing with more or less nothing to lose,could be a sting in the tail in this one!

[Emmet]

missed the -1 and the -2 that was around yesterday,but still think the -3 is worth a little bet,Brian McLauhglin wasnt a happy camper after the big-wigs made the decision that he should step down,the hc is the big prize for him right now with a very real chance that they could get to the final,even win it.think they would burn the pro 12 to get their hands on the hc tbh.also think mclauglin would like nothing more then to serve out a little humble pie to a few people with in the ulster camp.dont think it will be walkover for leinster but cant see ulster giving this 110% as well,and with the form leinster have shown these last few weeks,the -3 still looks backable,dont think edinburgh will be up to much on sunday as well,could be worth a look the the hcp is up!

sorry what?

That's almost completely wrong. McLaughlin wanted a permanent role within the organisation. They informed him that they couldn't offer him the head coach role on a permanent contract, (a completely realistic problem!), and they offered him the job as the head of the academy instead. He was very happy to take it. Its a role that's going to suit him and Ulster down to the ground tbh. He's made some pretty terrible selections this season, costing dearly against Connacht last week, when he could've rested players and still managed to come away with points. Now all their eggs are in the one basket.

I'm very confident in an Ulster win in the semi though. Their first 15 can compete with almost anyone. Beyond that there is some problems, but they will be well able to beat Edinburgh.

[amberleaf]

on any given day ulster would beat edinburgh.but they're really flying under the radar,giving nothing away,think we can expect a major improvement at the week end from them. not sure how happy McLauhglin was tbh,anyways heres the Press Conference on the 7th of feb after the news had broke,skip to 14.09 to hear what he has to say about the matter,happy not the word i'd use.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GidJkin1H_E

[Emmet]

he's obviously gutted that he wasn't offered the head coaching role in a permanent aspect, but it was an utterly unrealistic option.

McLaughlin informed Ulster Rugby at the end of last season that he was looking for job security, he was offered a one year extension contract (actually begged to take it by Ulster Rugby I think) in the knowledge that they weren't going to be able to offer him a permanent role as head coach. The PR side of it (especially the timing!) was an absolute and utter shambles, with leaked info etc, but reading through the press reports from the time of him signing on for another year, and the subsequent interviews with Humphries and himself this year makes it pretty clear that everyone knew their position from a distance out.

In either case, McLaughlin has been a bit of a Dalglish this season. A good cup run aside, he's made some terrible mistakes. The hardcore Ulster fans aren't happy with some of the stuff he's been up to. Playing players out of position etc.

He'll be an excellent Academy Head though, especially given his experience as a teacher at Methodist.

[amberleaf]

just looking at the markets for the hc,the 11/4(laddies) about leinster/ulster straight forecast looks great value imo,clermont away will be a hard game for leinster but the way theyre playing with the player panel they have,reckon they will be well up to beating them in what is also a away game for clermont.ulster you would think will be too hot for edinburgh,wont be a walk in the park for ulster,but seem to be playing their best rugby in years,if it does end up a all irish final,just cant see ulster over turning,what is imo the best team by far in europe right now,if not the world!

Originally Posted by amberleaf
ulster @ 100/1 to win the heineken

the price here varies greatly from anything from 100/1(boyles) down to 45/1(32red).tbh more of a g'wan ya good thing fun bet,tho they will be playing a under strenght tigers team at home next weekend,before heading to ASM Clermont Auvergne in what will be two very hard games for them,but they are playing well of late,winning at home v munster and away to edinburgh.still worth a score @ 100/1....just in case!


ehh-upp roll on may 19th,time to collect

and let us not forget,we now have four teams in the hc next year...again

stand up for the Connaught men

[amberleaf]

think leinster -12 could be well worth a look later on today,cant find any team news as yet but with the squad rotation they have,would think that whatever team they name, could well beat that handicap,well worth having a look at when the starting team/bench is named!

[Micknail]

Thoughts on Cardiff/Munster match lads?

[Emmet]

Thoughts on Cardiff/Munster match lads?

Cardiff not playing for a start. Ospreys available at 2/1 on Paddy Power Enhanced bet (max 20) - outrageous value considering they're 8/15 elsewhere.

Leinster to smash Glasgow

LEINSTER team V Glasgow:
15: Isa Nacewa
14: Fergus McFadden
13: Eoin O'Malley
12: Gordon D'Arcy
11: David Kearney
10: Jonathan Sexton
9: Eoin Reddan
1: Cian Healy
2: Richardt Strauss
3: Mike Ross
4: Brad Thorn
5: Devin Toner
6: Sean O'Brien
7: Shane Jennings
8: Jamie Heaslip CAPTAIN
REPLACEMENTS:
16: Sean Cronin
17: Heinke van der Merwe
18: Nathan White
19: Leo Cullen
20: Kevin McLaughlin
21: Isaac Boss
22: Ian Madigan
23: Andrew Conway