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Old 14-02-20, 10:40   #67701
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Took 3 days AL from wok to simply chill. Kids in school/creche , missus working. Game of golf finished 2 books . Heaven . I recommend it if you lead a hectic life . Time out .
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Old 14-02-20, 11:43   #67702
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Old 14-02-20, 11:51   #67703
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Much be a big jump in shipping stuff back to China too, with the reduced capacity?

I'm surprised at the general lack of concern for Coronavirus in general. I'm not an expert on r0 or epidemiology but the signs are looking grim.

It's looking like it's almost a boost for the S&P as a safe heaven vs the rest of the world. For the moment anyway.
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Old 14-02-20, 12:01   #67704
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Originally Posted by Denny Crane View Post
Much be a big jump in shipping stuff back to China too, with the reduced capacity?

I'm surprised at the general lack of concern for Coronavirus in general. I'm not an expert on r0 or epidemiology but the signs are looking grim.

It's looking like it's almost a boost for the S&P as a safe heaven vs the rest of the world. For the moment anyway.
The reduced capacity on ocean exports to China won't kick in for another few weeks yet but it is coming (when the ships ex Asia that were cancelled would have arrived into Europe)

The problem they have in China is that vessesls keep arrving and they are being discharged onto the terminals but nobody is taking delivery of the freight so they are running out of space. Especially on refrigerated cargo, Shanghai & Ningbo in particular have run out of plug in points so reefer containers are being redirected to other ports in China and also other countries. Only a matter of time before they get congested too.

On Air Freight, the export capacity has already been pulled out which is definetely casuing problems and when you can get space and get it there quickly via Air, it's still going to just sit there and cause congestion.
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Old 14-02-20, 12:23   #67705
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Denny Crane View Post
Much be a big jump in shipping stuff back to China too, with the reduced capacity?

I'm surprised at the general lack of concern for Coronavirus in general. I'm not an expert on r0 or epidemiology but the signs are looking grim.

It's looking like it's almost a boost for the S&P as a safe heaven vs the rest of the world. For the moment anyway.
Why so? Looks like its pretty much over and its got a very low fatality rate. Regular flu outbreaks are vastly more dangerous in terms of fatalities.
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Old 14-02-20, 13:11   #67706
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Long incubation period + asymptomatic transmission + high deathrate.

And it's actual spread likely vastly under-reported.


Some quotes from 2p2
Quote:
Professor Peter Piot, director of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said the outbreak is likely to become a pandemic, adding he was becoming “increasingly alarmed” about the rate of infection.

Professor Piot, who co-discovered ebola and the presence of Aids in Africa, warned that coronavirus is more dangerous than ebola.

“It’s a greater threat because of the mode of transmission. The potential for spread is much, much higher,” he told The Times.
Quote:
45 million seems standard with current best estimates of R0 and death rate. 2009 H1N1 went through about 2 billion people, killing ~500K with a 0.02% death rate (1/100th of this) and was about 1//3 as infectious as this appears to be.

It's really a case of whether it gets out of the barn door or not, such that containment becomes impossible at scale and it runs its course through the world's population. All the data indicates it's quite likely it will.
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All the data (copious at this point) points to this being far too contagious to contain. Asymptomatic transmission and 14 day incubation period for some pushes that way over the edge of containable. Wuhan should be zero after 23 days in total lockdown, not adding 1000+ cases a day. Xi Jinping was't far off calling it a "demon virus".

The only question is death rates. It's pretty likely they're above 1%, and we'll get our first (non-biased) data in the next 2-3 weeks as that cruise ship plays out. 4 are already in critical condition. If that numbers goes to 50 or so as the recent infections progress we have our answer. Expected deaths on that ship should be > 30 total imo given they're mostly over 60 and the death rate should be high in over 60s. Should be good for the cruise industry once the deaths start rolling in.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nature.com
Cases of the new coronavirus, now know as SARS-CoV-2, might be going undetected in some nations considered at high risk of an outbreak because they are reporting fewer cases than expected or none at all, say scientists. Infections have been detected in 24 countries outside China so far.

Researchers are using flight data to create models of the virus’s possible spread around the world. One model identified 30 countries at risk of importing SARS-CoV-2, on the basis of the large number of flights from Wuhan, the outbreak’s epicentre, and from other cities in China with lots of travellers from Wuhan. But several of those countries, including Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia, have reported fewer cases than the model predicts. Indonesia, another country at risk, has yet to report a single case.

The possibility of unreported cases is particularly concerning in countries with weaker health care systems, such as those in south east Asia and Africa, which could quickly be overwhelmed by a local outbreak. No cases have been reported in Africa so far, but some countries there, such as Nigeria, are at particular risk because of strong business ties to China.
Quote:
Not counting the 13,000 they just added:

- It took 3 weeks to go from 27 total confirmed cases (all time) to 60 new infected per day /2 new deaths per day

- It took less than 3 more weeks to go from 60 per day/2 deaths per day - to 1,500 new infected per day/ 60 dead per day. This is under total citywide lockdown over those 3 weeks.

- 21 days into total lockdown they still have >1000 new cases per day and 70 deaths per day
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Old 14-02-20, 13:14   #67707
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Why so? Looks like its pretty much over and its got a very low fatality rate. Regular flu outbreaks are vastly more dangerous in terms of fatalities.
I think he was talking from a economic viewpoint, not H&S.
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Old 14-02-20, 13:14   #67708
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Why so? Looks like its pretty much over and its got a very low fatality rate. Regular flu outbreaks are vastly more dangerous in terms of fatalities.
Isn't it deaths per contraction that is the scary part ? . I seriously doubt the Chinese are thinkung' sure we lose more to the normal flu '. There is some serious shit going on to isolate it.
No doubt it will hopefully be vac'd out but fk, by the sounds of it I'll take my chances with other other flus
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Old 14-02-20, 13:19   #67709
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Isn't it deaths per contraction that is the scary part ? . I seriously doubt the Chinese are thinkung' sure we lose more to the normal flu '. There is some serious shit going on to isolate it.
No doubt it will hopefully be vac'd out but fk, by the sounds of it I'll take my chances with other other flus
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Old 14-02-20, 13:20   #67710
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Why so? Looks like its pretty much over and its got a very low fatality rate. Regular flu outbreaks are vastly more dangerous in terms of fatalities.
Low fatality rate? Huh?
It’s around 2.5%, or 5 times as high as flu.
Plus rate is only half the picture. Ease of translation leads to way more people rolling the dice.
Total casualties is a pretty good indicator. And I’m pretty sure it has surpassed all recent pandemics. Concerns are pretty high here
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Old 14-02-20, 13:22   #67711
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The young fella's classmate returned to school today, his first day back after spending Christmas in China. They had always planned to miss most of January, but certainly they are more than a few weeks late in returning. I have to assume the school are satisfied there's no health risk, I imagine raising it with the school is inappropriate??
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Old 14-02-20, 13:24   #67712
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What are the logistics like in the quarantined cities? Are they doing regular supply runs to the population?

Would be funny if we get wiped out and Zerohedge wasn't around to report it.
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Old 14-02-20, 13:31   #67713
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Looking for 2 tickets to the rugby in Twickenham on the 23rd if anyone has any leads/ideas. Thanks in advance.
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Old 14-02-20, 13:31   #67714
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The Chinese plan to take over the world. They have the vaccine , we will all die and boom the world is Red . I'll be ok my mudder ship will take me home .
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Old 14-02-20, 14:28   #67715
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heh

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Old 14-02-20, 14:35   #67716
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heh
The scary part was Trump tweeting it

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Old 14-02-20, 14:36   #67717
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Originally Posted by mcnugget View Post
The young fella's classmate returned to school today, his first day back after spending Christmas in China. They had always planned to miss most of January, but certainly they are more than a few weeks late in returning. I have to assume the school are satisfied there's no health risk, I imagine raising it with the school is inappropriate??
I'd say its fine to mention it. The medical advice for anyone visiting even, say, Singapore is that they self-isolate for two weeks after coming back, so perfectly fine to check that the school has verified that. As in you wouldn't be pointing at a kid, but rather pointing at the school and checking they are doing their job. Chinese New Year was about two weeks ago, so maybe they came back right after that and then stayed at home for two weeks. Although realistically its too late now to prevent anything if he has already spent a day in the classroom.
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Old 14-02-20, 14:44   #67718
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The scary part was Trump tweeting it
Larry is asked about it in an interview
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Old 14-02-20, 14:48   #67719
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Solid whataboutery there... I always thought rugby people prided themselves on the game not being soccer (or GAA). Better class of sport and all that?

To be clear, my issue isn't with the thuggery per se. It's with the outrageously disproportionate coverage it gets in the Irish Times in particular. I was simply noting my happiness that the coverage was becoming more rounded.
As someone who played soccer, GAA and rugby all the way growing up, I’d agree that in the vast majority of instances rugby does things better than soccer or GAA. I’ve never had my bus pelted with stones leaving a ground, 30 man brawl, umpire breaking a 16yo team mates nose with his flag, chased a referee, sang sectarian songs, etc when playing rugby.
Respect for referees is much higher, greater emphasis on sporting behavior even at higher levels of it, things to be proud of in rugby culture.

There were plenty dickheads in every sport, and none had a monopoly on that front.

Last edited by Goodluck2me; 14-02-20 at 14:54. Reason: Spellingz
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Old 14-02-20, 15:05   #67720
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Explosions in the Sky in vicar st tonight, excellent stuff
I was there too, it was amazing, eyes closed half the time. Nice wee trip to the beer market after too.



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