Football-betting thread

[outdraw]

what was the mad thing you were expecting united to do at the back?

[CheckRaise]

January 29:

Werder Bremen v Bayern Munich (over 2.5 goals @ 1.62)

[Raheny Red]

Any reasons not to charge into Celtic tonight? They've played Aberdeen 3 times this season with an aggregate scoreline of 14-1. They also beat them 4-1 over the weekend. Thoughts??

[Opr]

Any reasons not to charge into Celtic tonight? They've played Aberdeen 3 times this season with an aggregate scoreline of 14-1. They also beat them 4-1 over the weekend. Thoughts??

Haven't looked at the match but I read it on another forums so thought I would post that their 3 first team center backs are out of action tonight.

Opr

[Raheny Red]

Haven't looked at the match but I read it on another forums so thought I would post that their 3 first team center backs are out of action tonight.

Opr

Cheers, only seen this after kick off. I didn't go too crazy on it in the end, just small to medium stakes.

[CheckRaise]

Marseille v Arles (under 2.5 goals @ 2.6)

Hamburg v St. Pauli (over 2.5 goals @ 1.73)

[CheckRaise]

Bari v Genoa (under 2.5 goals @ 1.66)

St Pauli v Borussia Monchengladbach (over 2.5 goals @ 1.67)

[The Situation]

Mancini's record against the big four 4-2, 0-0, 0-1, 0-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-3 0-0, 0-0. Four goalless draws, two defensive 4-5-1 formations today and Berbs shockingly dropped. 0-0 available at 9/1.

[Semibluff]

im on unders at 10/11
man utd clean sheet 2.54

shame no rio

[Bubbleking]

overs in Chelsea Fulham match looks good imo?

[Ace]

overs in Chelsea Fulham match looks good imo?

i hope so and hope Fulham get no goals, chelsea(-1) for the $$$$$ - one time, esp after the sweat of the france(-2).

[AndyFatBastard]

This is a no bet for me tonight. Chelsea out of form but still no value in backing them, Fulham unpredictable and they have a tendency to pull off the odd shock win especially at home. Not biting.

[Jaysoose]

40 points or more in the card index @ 11/10 for me.. 15 blipsters for an interest and dempsey firsy goal and 2-2 @80/1 for a EURO!!

[hotspur]

Backed exactly 2 or 3 goals.

[Jaysoose]

Mike dean is a joke of a ref its like he was afraid to give yellow cards!!! how in fucks name can somebody give a penalty away and not get booked?

Baldy gutless wankbag.

[The Situation]

Napoli Villarreal teams just out. Napoli benching all their stars, Villarreal full strength. Napoli's priority obv seems to be their big weekend clash with Milan. Get on Villarreal, this price will shorten considerably before kick off.

[Keane]

Napoli Villarreal teams just out. Napoli benching all their stars, Villarreal full strength. Napoli's priority obv seems to be their big weekend clash with Milan. Get on Villarreal, this price will shorten considerably before kick off.

Nice tip, only got it odds on but still.

TY

[Semibluff]

Nice tip, only got it odds on but still.

TY

yeh i got napoli last week off a bookie - they were a massive price on them - and having read this i traded out on bf at the same price as i was on last week - so happy out

[The Situation]

Nice tip, only got it odds on but still.

TY

ah it was always odds on so you didn't miss much. Went from 5/6- 3/4.

When the last 32 draw was made I got on Zenit at 9's Villarreal at 16's and Rubin at 40's. Rubin are out. Eastern teams seem a little rusty after their winter pre season.

Zenit made tough work of their Young Boys tie but they're through, they're definitely gonna improve. Now at 8's. I consider them favourites, English teams are always wildly over-rated in this market. Villarreal are at 14's now. Also still value, and there's no doubt they 100% want to win it which can't be said for every team.

[Semibluff]

how do you come around to making them evens?

Are you banking on man city juggling their team due to top 4 chase?

Also, what do you make of the draw?

on zenith a lil from round b4

[Keane]

ah it was always odds on so you didn't miss much. Went from 5/6- 3/4.

When the last 32 draw was made I got on Zenit at 9's Villarreal at 16's and Rubin at 40's. Rubin are out. Eastern teams seem a little rusty after their winter pre season.

Zenit made tough work of their Young Boys tie but they're through, they're definitely gonna improve. Now at 8's. I consider them favourites, English teams are always wildly over-rated in this market. Villarreal are at 14's now. Also still value, and there's no doubt they 100% want to win it which can't be said for every team.

Might stick a few quid on Zenit and Villareal so for the sweat.

[The Situation]

how do you come around to making them evens?

Are you banking on man city juggling their team due to top 4 chase?

Also, what do you make of the draw?

on zenith a lil from round b4

Never said they should be evens. Just that they're favs in my eyes. I'd fancy them to beat City full strength if they faced each other this season. Team is far more in tune with each other and the manager Spaletti is a bit of a tactical genius.

Yeah it's possible Mancini might rotate in the run in. Champions league place has got to be the priority. They've got Chelsea 4 days after their 2nd leg against Kiev, so if they need a result after the away first leg in Ukraine they could pull a Napoli and not risk their stars.

Zenit facing Twente should be handy enough, Levercusan is a tougher tie for Villarreal but I'd fancy the Spanish, 2nd leg at home is the key where Villarreal always seem to win.

[Semibluff]

didnt mean evens, meant fave - must stop posting when so tired!

If city have a full strength team out every game - theyll be next to impossible to beat. Always bringing the game back to city with the tie in tack - mancini can be so defensive when he wants to be. But the thing is, i cant see him staying with a full strenght team - and the likes of Jo etc really dont match up with his starting team.

Hope Zenith do it myself, agree they should beat twente well

[CheckRaise]

Arles v Brest (under 2.5 goals)

Palermo v Udinese (over 2.5 goals)

[AndyFatBastard]

Have I gone mad? Are Shaktar Donetsk not a massive price at 10/11 to beat Roma at home in the Champions League this week? They've basically got the game sown up after a 3-2 win in Roma, they are formidable at home, and Roma are very poor in comparison to their glory days. If they get the first goal all the fight will go out of Roma and they could win it very, very comfortably. I'm seriously considering lumping on this in a massive way.

[The Situation]

Arles v Brest (under 2.5 goals)

Palermo v Udinese (Over 2.5 goals)

Good shout here imo, game is gonna be ridic open, if your going to watch one game in Serie A this year i'd choose this, like the Spurs v Blackpool of Serie A.

Also Napoli trading bigger than 4/1 for the top of the table clash tomorrow night. Yes please!

[The Situation]

Overs covered in less than 30 mins. Udinese 3-0 up. Sanchez is a sick good player.

[The C Kid]

Not a bad first half from Udinese.

[The Situation]

They're also breaking the Italian unwritten rule of not beating a team by more than 4 goals at the moment.

I'm laying next goal Udinese. Trading at 1.96 but not as confident as usual since they've broke it once already today.

Edit: market is ridic liquid. Over 50k matched compared to an average of 2k in other Italian games in next goal market.

[Raheny Red]

What price was overs prior to kick off?

[The Situation]

What price was overs prior to kick off?

Bits of 8/11, mainly 4/6

[CheckRaise]

Have I gone mad? Are Shaktar Donetsk not a massive price at 10/11 to beat Roma at home in the Champions League this week? They've basically got the game sown up after a 3-2 win in Roma, they are formidable at home, and Roma are very poor in comparison to their glory days. If they get the first goal all the fight will go out of Roma and they could win it very, very comfortably. I'm seriously considering lumping on this in a massive way.

Away goal factors:

Shaktar are happy with the result being either a draw or a Roma win by one goal in a low scoring game:

0-0
0-1
1-2
1-1
2-2



Roma must score at least 2 goals so they will be very offensive. Roma rested Borriello today with this game in mind and will probably rest Totti and a few other key players for the Lecce game on the 4th.

Shaktar have conceded only 7 goals in 19 games and only 2 goals at home in the Ukrainian league and so they know how to lock it down at home so I think they might adopt a strategy of trying to contain Roma to at most one goal rather than going on to win the game themselves.

-------------

In the first game Shaktar had 10 shots total, 5 of them were on target and 3 were goals. This is very high conversion rate that wont be maintained. In contrast Roma had 21 shots in the same game and didnt have a full strength team.

-------------


Wouldn't bet on nor watch this game but if I was forced to pick a bet here depending on what team Roma go with I would lay Shaktar.

(There could be value in the Lecce game if Roma do rest players).


-------------

[CheckRaise]

Palermo v Udinese highlights.

The 3rd goal is fantastic.

[Raheny Red]

I'm very impressed with Dundalk's squad this season. They are 11/10 tonight @ home to Linfield, they beat them 5-3 over a week ago. Anyone else think 11/10 is slight value or have they got it spot on here

[Guest]

I'm very impressed with Dundalk's squad this season. They are 11/10 tonight @ home to Linfield, they beat them 5-3 over a week ago. Anyone else think 11/10 is slight value or have they got it spot on here

sounds like they are a very good price here, will be having a flutter on them later

[Semibluff]

id be laying odds on in this game

linfield have to be very disapointed in the last games result

also dundalk not needing a win (or being able to lose by a goal) may affect it

20 mins to go, 1-1, and theyll just be sitting back

will leave it myself

[bohsman]

Get your maximum bets on Portadown to beat Bohs at 5/2 on Tuesday evening. (Paddy Powers)

[Keane]

Get your maximum bets on Portadown to beat Bohs at 5/2 on Tuesday evening. (Paddy Powers)

How come Oscar?

[bohsman]

We are in preseason with a very young squad, 2 games played so far we lost 1-0 to 1st Div Cork who completely outplayed us and drew 1-1 with 1st Div Longford. Portadown are in great form most of the way through the Northern Irish league and have a very good squad.

[bohsman]

Actually seems portadown have been a bit below par but should still win easily

[Raheny Red]

Best price on Dundalk is now 10/11 - hopefully they can catch Linfield on the break.

Also, Shels 13/10 away to Longford on Saturday

Anyone know if bwin accept Irish Laser?

[The Situation]

Napoli have to be bet on at 4's or bigger tonight. Milan are ridic vunerable to width, Maggio provides this in bucketloads on the right and to a lesser extent Dossena on the left. Milan bench Cassano for Pato which is a mistake imo and beneficial to Napoli.

I'm happy either way, win or draw is good as a Milan fan and lose is good financially

[Percy007]

id be laying odds on in this game

linfield have to be very disapointed in the last games result

also dundalk not needing a win (or being able to lose by a goal) may affect it

20 mins to go, 1-1, and theyll just be sitting back

will leave it myself

[Raheny Red]

Nice call SB, poxy Blues scoring in the 3rd minute of 1st half injury time!

[Raheny Red]

I was gonna leave the Bohs - Ports game alone but after reading Heary's comments I'll donate a few shilling. 'I think the Setanta Cup won't mean much for Bohs this year. Hopefully we can qualify, but this match will be just to get a competitive game under our belt to get match sharpness, as we've only played 2 friendlies'. That's usual of Heary I must say.....

[bohsman]

Bohs the better team but ports just scored a wondergoal out of nothing. Reminiscent of fahey v bohs a few years ago

[bohsman]

2 1 now to ports

[Raheny Red]

Cheers Bohsman, the loot is going on Shels away to Longford @ 11/8 with powers!

[KevIRL]

Cheers Bohsman, the loot is going on Shels away to Longford @ 11/8 with powers!

Ya n1 Oscar, shared this with a few people who picked up a few quid as well, so they say thanks too

[bohsman]

We actually played really well. If Bohs are 5/2 or better next week I'll have a few quid on them. I think anything around evens will be a good price away to Bray on Friday aswell.

[FeetMagic]

What do ye make of Arsenal to win prem league at 7/4 (Boyles, best price around I think)? Think they're generous odds and I'm tempted to place a large bet on them.. Should I not?

[CheckRaise]

What do ye make of Arsenal to win prem league at 7/4 (Boyles, best price around I think)? Think they're generous odds and I'm tempted to place a large bet on them.. Should I not?

You should probably hold off until more is known about the injuries to Fabregas, Walcott and Van Persie.

7/4 does not look too good if you have to rely on Nasri feeding Chamakh. Arsenal do have the better run of games over the next 6 and Spurs aside they do have the more favourable home fixtures against the 'better' teams so that price could drop if they can get the wins without Van Persie.


Arsenal are 4 points behind with a game in hand and crucially they are at home to Utd on 1st May.


If Walcott and Van Persie are back in three weeks then there is value but if Van Persie is out for longer than 3 weeks then it is starting to look slim as of now Man Utd have a better goal difference and Rooney is starting to come good and Ferguson is finally giving Chico more game time and he has been lethal so far.

Recent quote from Wenger:

"Unfortunately, we had bad news on the scan and Robin will be out for the next three weeks for sure," Wenger told Arsenal TV Online.

"It could be longer. The shortest delay we can imagine is three weeks, so he is definitely out for Barcelona."

[RunningClubs]

Just backed Gerrard first Goalscorer at 9/1 for tomorrow

[Opr]

Chelsea -1 @ 4/5 surely is a great bet. Blackpool looked lost without Adam last week and he is suspended again this week. I expect Chelsea will be pumped for the match with the door having being opened a little with the weekend results!

Opr

[CheckRaise]

Chelsea -1 @ 4/5 surely is a great bet. Blackpool looked lost without Adam last week and he is suspended again this week. I expect Chelsea will be pumped for the match with the door having being opened a little with the weekend results!

Opr

I like it for small stakes.

I usually dont even consider backing an away team against the handicap odds on but this does look like value considering Chelsea dont really have to hold much back for Copenhagen and Blackpool are missing Adam and Campbell.

[Opr]

Never in doubt

Opr

[Guest]

2.5 pts Arsenal draw no bet @13/2

too big imo


*A bollix, just realized I'm gonna be rooting for the Arse now in a game I was looking forward to seeing them get a spanking in

[AndyFatBastard]

Have I gone mad? Are Shaktar Donetsk not a massive price at 10/11 to beat Roma at home in the Champions League this week? They've basically got the game sown up after a 3-2 win in Roma, they are formidable at home, and Roma are very poor in comparison to their glory days. If they get the first goal all the fight will go out of Roma and they could win it very, very comfortably. I'm seriously considering lumping on this in a massive way.

Ship it. Did anyone follow suit?

[The Situation]

Ship it. Did anyone follow suit?

Yeah had a little on. Prob not enough going by Shaktars home record, haven't lost since 08 there in all comps, but the balance of the tie put me off lumpaging. They won't be an easy draw in the quarters...

[Semibluff]

is it possible they can get spurs next round? (open draw again?? )

If so i hope spurs tonk milan to set this one up