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World Cup Pick Your Own Team Sweep (theory).

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    World Cup Pick Your Own Team Sweep (theory).

    Would something like this work in reality?
    32 teams in World Cup, and you can pick your own team, with the winner taking the full pot.
    The person who makes the highest bid for each team wins that selection.

    Player A seeds it initially by saying he places €1 on say Spain, France, Argentina, Italy, England Holland and Germany.
    With €7 in the pot, Player B sees Brazil at an attractive price and bids €1.
    With €8 in the pot now, someone now sees there is no bid for Portugal and bids 50c.
    This extra money in the pot increases the value of Spain so someone increases the Spain bid to €1.50.
    As the pot reaches €20 then teams like Portugal / Ivory Coast etc become worth an initial bid, eventually the pot gets big enough so that the rags are worth €1 as well.

    And each bid for an outsider increases the overall value of the pot so as to continually make it worthwhile to make a bigger bid for the favourites.

    ******
    I'm not suggesting we do this - I'm just wondering how it would work out in practice amongst people who understand odds, does it turn into a giant pyramid scheme, or does it nit up and stop on the first occasion that there is no perceived edge on the odds.

    Main problem I see would be escrow - you would need to know that the 32 top bids (one for each team) at any time are genuine bids.

    #2
    This sounds like a nightmare to administer, and with only realstically 8 or 9 possible winners sounds like those would be the only teams bid on. It does sound a bit interesting though.

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      #3
      Originally posted by 5starpool View Post
      This sounds like a nightmare to administer, and with only realstically 8 or 9 possible winners sounds like those would be the only teams bid on. It does sound a bit interesting though.
      Think it'd be alright. Get a group interested (say 20) and get everyone to ship $5 to start. Pool starts at $100 and off we go. Obviously quite a few very unlikely to win but people will want to invest another dollar or two on them when the pool gets bigger.

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        #4
        Sorry to be a bit negative but I think it will fail. Years back this was tried on the Grand National in an office where I worked. Over half the people picked the favourite and it won.

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          #5
          Meh, could be interesting but I'd rather just do a fantasy football thingy for the World Cup.
          'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick

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            #6
            Originally posted by kincsem View Post
            Sorry to be a bit negative but I think it will fail. Years back this was tried on the Grand National in an office where I worked. Over half the people picked the favourite and it won.
            As I understand it only 1 person can get each team. It's an auction basically. Highest bid gets that team.

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              #7
              I like this idea.

              Few things - if we get a group of say 20 people to play then limit each player to 'owning' 3 teams max at the end. Then nobody can come in at the very end and bid big on every team. Also no Eddie Durkin pls.

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                #8
                Its just gonna end up as a mirror image of the actual prices. There are 2 possible scenarios that can happen. Neither of them are nice.

                1) Nobody makes the first bid or bidding stalls very early as early doors taking some steps can be -EV. Taking the first or second step is silly, unless of course everyone wanting to participate escrows a sum of money.

                2) If the market gets going, its just going to become a mirror image to the actual market. The market will then just grow and grow as prices make small changes, and people attempt to exploit those small changes. It will eventually become a burgeoning monstrosity that will take 100s of quids just to make a bid on most of the more popular teams. Thats pretty inevitable if you put an open market bidding system up. Nobody is going to have much edge, and its just not going to be fun, but serious.

                If you have an open market bidding system, good luck in trying to restrain it while remaining fair and impartial. Its not.

                You could try thinking of another auctioning system though.
                Foldaramus et foldarabimus

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