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Big draw against bad player

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    Big draw against bad player

    Stars big $22 (the one that starts at 17.00 Irish time?)

    Bubble has burst about half an hour ago, had less than 10BBs after bubble but have been on the right side of a few big hands and am about 1.5 times average stack now, maybe more

    Villain is 25/16 over 52 hands, but is prob worse than that - earlier I saw him call a 7BB UTG push with 45s in the BB

    We have no history that I can remember now, but like I said I was on the right side of a few hands so had shown good cards

    NL Holdem $1,000(BB) Replayer
    SB ($8,701)
    BB ($19,580)
    UTG ($13,984)
    UTG+1 ($14,586)
    Hero ($33,424)
    MP1 ($51,453)
    MP2 ($60,195)
    CO ($35,079)
    BTN ($26,734)

    Dealt to Hero A:heart: K:heart:

    fold, fold, Hero raises to $2,400, MP1 calls $2,400, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold

    FLOP ($7,425) Q:heart: 6:diamond: 6:heart:

    Hero bets $3,000, MP1 raises to $7,000

    HERO?

    Is flatting awful?

    #2
    have to jam, he's raising all pps here surely? We have a monster draw, are only dead to a 6 that he rarely has or QQ that he rarely has. We're not delighted to see AQ or KQ but we've still got plenty of equity vs them. Jam that bad boy in and give yourself tonnes of pots when they fold, and tonnes of "outs" when they call.

    Comment


      #3
      you speak the truth Emmet

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        #4
        Agree with Emmet here, don't flat you gotta jam for the equity you have here. If you flat and miss the turn what do u do now? You have a less chance to hit now but so much invested, so jam that flop because you are ahead of most of his range and if he did hit that flop your still live (obv not if qq or 66)

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          #5
          Yeah, like Emmet said, you have to jam.

          If we flat here then we might have give up ott and we've put in around 1/3rd of our stack.

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            #6
            Does fact villain seems a station and is incapable of folding a Q to my repush change things? As he can't fold he will still pay me if I hit the flush so I don't lose value if I hit.

            I'm flipping against a Q, slightly worse against AQ or KQ. And he's never bluffing here either. And on my read, never folding.

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              #7
              still makes it an insane prospect to flat or call imo. Jamming is a coinflip vs his range when he calls and it costs us 23 to win 43 more. And he has to be bluffing / raise folding even a tiny percentage of the time.


              Sucks balls when he flips Q7s and you miss, but it's still the right play.

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                #8
                True, but most players c bet a flop like that after raising pre, whats your cbet % maybe he is raising that??
                im not sure just my opinion, what happened anyway did u fold? or flat then fold?

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                  #9
                  I think the repush is definitely the optimal play generally, but against this punter I'm not sure. I mean pushing is only really optimal because of fold equity, I have no fold equity against this villain holding a Q here, prob not even against 1010.

                  And as I said he will pay me off if a heart falls. He may not pay me off if a K or A falls, unless it hits him too.

                  So if I can see the river without putting it all in then I'm getting best of both worlds? Obv I'm not folding a non 6 turn.

                  I mean flatting is so bad and exploitable usually but I don't think this fella is capable of exploiting. Maybe I'm just completely underestimating him. But pushing is just letting the gods decide, which mightn't be necessary with a decent stack at a table I'm happy with?

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                    #10
                    you flat, turn comes 2345789TJ of clubs, spades or diamonds. Your move?

                    you check, he shoves, you fold.

                    that's more than 2/3 of the deck, so more than 2/3 of the time that's what happens. You're relying on a heart that's not an A or a K to hit the turn so that's about 8 cards?

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                      #11
                      No I'm saying I'd call any non 6 turn.

                      Might be a bit of a pointless strategy because chances are I'll have an unplayable stack left on river if I don't hit. I suppose he might check turn though.

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                        #12
                        Originally posted by 8611 View Post
                        No I'm saying I'd call any non 6 turn.
                        but he pretty much has to shove the turn? So you'd prefer to call off your stack on the turn when losing half your opportunity to hit instead of shoving it on the flop and giving him a chance to fold, and embracing your opportunities to hit?

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                          #13
                          Lets just say we're playing against a computer who is programmed to call with 90% of the Qs he holds. What do we do on flop?

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                            #14
                            jam

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                              #15
                              Lol! Look I know you're right and its pretty marginal anyway, and I think I'm prob underestimating his capacity to fold. Just trying to think my way out of it.

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                                #16
                                Flatting is horrible shove ADL

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                                  #17
                                  check call flop

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                                    #18
                                    have to shove

                                    flat here and miss the turn what do you do then? if you're already making the decision to commit your stack do it on the flop.

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                                      #19
                                      14567/call. Flatting and c/calling are.. emmm.. sub-optimal.
                                      "c'est en faisant n'importe quoi qu'on devient n'importe qui"

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by 8611 View Post
                                        Lets just say we're playing against a computer who is programmed to call with 90% of the Qs he holds. What do we do on flop?
                                        You aren't tryign to get a fold from a Q. I'd expect a Q to call 100% of shoves.
                                        you have reasonable equity from an unmade hand, so you want to fold out his weak ahnds with equity against you, and flip with his strong hands that you have equity against.

                                        Flatting to ship any turn is just killing your equity

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