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Old 16-02-11, 22:53   #61
The C Kid
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Matt Matros wrote that article originally I think.
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Old 16-02-11, 22:59   #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dannydiamond View Post
This sums it up perfectly.
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Originally Posted by Midnitekowby View Post
reverse of this happened to me 1st time i played main @ wsop. day4 pre bubble, sum guys called clock on me after literally 10secs, he wasnt even in the hand, i called him a donut...td came over to ban me an orbit of the table,i refused to leave..

He consulted with higher up td who said "Sir u have to leave for an orbit for personally abusing another player"...i told him i didnt abuse him...he said "you called seat 8 a donkey" i told him i called him a donut, which was a term of enderment in Ireland...they were momentarily stunned, then laughed and just gave me warning, i turned around in seat and action was on me in sb,with table waiting on me, i look down at aq and raised. bb folds and i show him the aq, cause i planned on robbing him blind as bubble approached...

Then i notice a limper in mid pos, both Tds are still watching this and with great delight tell me ill be fined my orbit of table now, but can proceed with hand....I know that if that limper repopped me then that id have done the exact same and jammed the whole farm back at him, instead he flatted....alllowing me to see only 3 cards, i whiff, he bets and takes down the pot....easy + best way to play it imo

but ya agree with smoothcall there, u gotta have a plan here + if ur raising, cant raise fold. Your just creating better odds for you to make the call and then folding?
+1 here
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Old 16-02-11, 23:03   #63
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+1 here
sorry wrong quote
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Old 16-02-11, 23:06   #64
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Originally Posted by smoothcall View Post
hmm assumed the answer would be something like that.

There is now 10k dead in the pot, so your getting a good price to flip. Basically when you raise you should know what your doing if he shoves, and if your going to fold you shouldnt have raised. By doing what you did it's giving up a good spot, so who knows how many more of these magical spots are available.
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This sums it up perfectly.
this one
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Old 16-02-11, 23:07   #65
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Originally Posted by The C Kid View Post
Matt Matros wrote that article originally I think.
Yeah, it was Matt Matros and was in cardplayer around 2006.

edit: Googled it
http://www.cardplayer.com/cardplayer...mit-hold-39-em
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Old 17-02-11, 15:39   #66
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Originally Posted by EssEll View Post
Option 1: Fold
EV = 0

Option 2: Call and bet if he misses the flop
He will hit flop about 36% of the time (right?) – assume he bets and we fold: -1300 x 36% = -468
We will bet 64% of the time and he will mostly fold: +2400 x 64% = +1536
Sometimes he will call when he misses the flop – that will add some value to this option. Ignoring that value, the EV of this option is +1068

Option 3: Raise to 5k
Have to guess some probabilities here – lets say he will fold / call / push 1/3rd of the time each
If he folds: +2400/3 = 800
If he calls, we are back to the same scenario as 1: -4700 x 36% = -1692, +5800 x 64% = 3712 => +2020 if he calls.... divide by 3 for probability that he calls = 673 (plus of course more if we think he will still call out of stubbornness)
If he pushes and we fold that’s -4700 / 3 = -1567 which brings the total EV of raising into negative territory (conclusion based on this: do not raise if you won’t call a shove!)
If he pushes and we call, we are 55% to take the lot: -47700 x 45%, +46400 x 55% = 4055... divide by 3 = 1352
Overall EV of raising: +2825

Overall conclusion... go ahead and raise unless you suffer from TLS (which you do ) (in which case call)
Good post, it really is just a case of working out the individual ev of each situation and find which one is best. The ideal senario is we raise, he calls and we take down the pot on the flop. I dont think calling pre is a good enough way to take advantage of his situation at all, we should use the free info to exploit him and the best way to do this is to reraise.
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Old 17-02-11, 15:47   #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mellor View Post
Yeah, it was Matt Matros and was in cardplayer around 2006.

edit: Googled it
http://www.cardplayer.com/cardplayer...mit-hold-39-em
Can anybody do a copy/paste of this for me please? Wouldn't mind reading it again, can't get on Cardplayer in work...
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Old 17-02-11, 15:52   #68
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Old 17-02-11, 16:09   #69
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Originally Posted by Line Us View Post
Good post, it really is just a case of working out the individual ev of each situation and find which one is best. The ideal senario is we raise, he calls and we take down the pot on the flop. I dont think calling pre is a good enough way to take advantage of his situation at all, we should use the free info to exploit him and the best way to do this is to reraise.
I disagree, that he does each option 1/3 of the time though. I'd say call is way lower. something more like fold 40% shove 45%, call 15% imo.

Still don't mind raising, but as the dokester said, avoiding high variance situations in good structured soft field is a good plan. So calling might be the better option
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Old 17-02-11, 16:32   #70
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That's not the article I was talking about (still good).

The article I was thinking of specifically talks about a situation where we have QQ and are faced with a decision for all our chips in the first hand of a deep tournament with the opponent having exposed AK.

He speaks about how often we chip up to 2x starting stack by calling, vs the probability that we'll be able to do the same gradually throughout the next x levels. He somehow equates this to skill level, showing that the vast majority of players have a smaller edge over the field than the edge they give up by refusing the flip in the first hand.
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Old 17-02-11, 16:54   #71
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Originally Posted by smoothcall View Post
I disagree, that he does each option 1/3 of the time though. I'd say call is way lower. something more like fold 40% shove 45%, call 15% imo.

Still don't mind raising, but as the dokester said, avoiding high variance situations in good structured soft field is a good plan. So calling might be the better option
Ya I think 1/3 is a bit off too, its more the fact that he worked out each scenario to get an answer rather than saying call and cbet without checking whis is actually better. Gonna steal some of EssEll's maths here(done this quick so hopefully no errors!) for your guesstimates of his frequencies.

If we raise to 5k and he folds 40% of the time.
+2500 * .40 = +1000

If he calls:: -4700 x 36% = -1692, +5800 x 64% = 3712 => +2020 * 0.15 = + 303

If he pushes and we call: -47700 x 45%, +46400 x 55% = 4055 *0.45 = 1823

Overall EV of raising: +3127


I take your point though, that this early, there is not a need to take the high variance line but the fact is that it is ++ev to raise even with your estimates(I'd argue that he calls more often than 15% and shoves less). Also this is unlikely to happen to anyone reading this again so the thread probably isn't that useful at all really and we are arguing over a marginal difference in ev in a very rare spot. I think the main point of the thread is call pre or raise and snap call his shove, the only way to play the hand badly is to raise fold.
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Old 17-02-11, 18:00   #72
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ye true that this situation is rare and probably wont ever occur to yourself. But what people should take from the thread is

- you should have a plan, e.g what are you going to do if he raises

- you should think of all options.

If anyone takes either of them into consideration theyve learnt a lot.
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Old 17-02-11, 23:00   #73
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That's not the article I was talking about (still good).
Yeah you're right. I was talking about the samne article as you. I pasted the wrong link.

http://www.cardplayer.com/cardplayer...or-not-to-flip

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Line Us View Post
If we raise to 5k and he folds 40% of the time.
+2500 * .40 = +1000

If he calls:: -4700 x 36% = -1692, +5800 x 64% = 3712 => +2020 * 0.15 = + 303

If he pushes and we call: -47700 x 45%, +46400 x 55% = 4055 *0.45 = 1823

Overall EV of raising: +3127
I don't think an EV calc sees the whole picture.
Basically, we have a c.10% edge. So the situation with the highest +EV is when we ship and he calls 100% of the time. As here we apply the whole 10% to our whole stack.
But while its probably the most profitable action, its also very high variance, and it also gives up the advantage we have over knowing his cards.

In terms of effective utility (as opposed EV), calling is much better as it allows us to paly perfect post flop. The risk or ruin is either 0%, if he folds when he missesd, or as very low when he gambles on the flop (and here our all-in EV is much higher than above)
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Old 23-02-11, 11:00   #74
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YOU CAN SEE HIS CARDS

People seem to be missing this fact (not everyone to be fair)
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Old 11-03-11, 05:16   #75
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Stumbled across this video and somehow it reminded me of this thread
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Old 11-03-11, 12:35   #76
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Stumbled across this video and somehow it reminded me of this thread
no linkage
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Old 11-03-11, 13:59   #77
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Originally Posted by Laois Hammer View Post
no linkage
[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKsV6oqZW38&feature=player_embedded[/ame]
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Old 11-03-11, 16:08   #78
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no linkage
d'oh, I'm an idiot,

anyway, the one sligboi posted above was it anyway
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