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Old 16-02-11, 01:09   #41
jack90210
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I really thought this would be a simple fold with how deep i am and far too early to take a huge flip. I would assume i have a lot better spots to come.
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Old 16-02-11, 01:23   #42
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I really thought this would be a simple fold with how deep i am and far too early to take a huge flip. I would assume i have a lot better spots to come.
hmm assumed the answer would be something like that.

There is now 10k dead in the pot, so your getting a good price to flip. Basically when you raise you should know what your doing if he shoves, and if your going to fold you shouldnt have raised. By doing what you did it's giving up a good spot, so who knows how many more of these magical spots are available.
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Old 16-02-11, 02:24   #43
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Originally Posted by smoothcall View Post
Basically when you raise you should know what your doing if he shoves, and if your going to fold you shouldnt have raised. By doing what you did it's giving up a good spot
This sums it up perfectly.
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Old 16-02-11, 02:30   #44
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I really thought this would be a simple fold with how deep i am and far too early to take a huge flip. I would assume i have a lot better spots to come.
When people say they were in a big flip they didn't know it was going to be a big flip until the action played out.

You know you are in a big flip....and you are ahead. If I raise here I am snapcalling a shove.
I wouldn't have raised though, much better chance of getting some of his tiltchips without any risk whatsoever.

You are essentially a "superuser" in this hand and you gave up your advantage by raising.

If I could see my opponents cards in every hand I played in I would never re-raise unless I was an overwhelming favourite and I thought he would get it in. Ok it's a one-off situation but the principle is the same.
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Old 16-02-11, 02:48   #45
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reverse of this happened to me 1st time i played main @ wsop. day4 pre bubble, sum guys called clock on me after literally 10secs, he wasnt even in the hand, i called him a donut...td came over to ban me an orbit of the table,i refused to leave..

He consulted with higher up td who said "Sir u have to leave for an orbit for personally abusing another player"...i told him i didnt abuse him...he said "you called seat 8 a donkey" i told him i called him a donut, which was a term of enderment in Ireland...they were momentarily stunned, then laughed and just gave me warning, i turned around in seat and action was on me in sb,with table waiting on me, i look down at aq and raised. bb folds and i show him the aq, cause i planned on robbing him blind as bubble approached...

Then i notice a limper in mid pos, both Tds are still watching this and with great delight tell me ill be fined my orbit of table now, but can proceed with hand....I know that if that limper repopped me then that id have done the exact same and jammed the whole farm back at him, instead he flatted....alllowing me to see only 3 cards, i whiff, he bets and takes down the pot....easy + best way to play it imo

but ya agree with smoothcall there, u gotta have a plan here + if ur raising, cant raise fold. Your just creating better odds for you to make the call and then folding?
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Old 16-02-11, 02:53   #46
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Originally Posted by Midnitekowby View Post

He consulted with higher up td who said "Sir u have to leave for an orbit for personally abusing another player"...i told him i didnt abuse him...he said "you called seat 8 a donkey" i told him i called him a donut, which was a term of enderment in Ireland...they were momentarily stunned, then laughed and just gave me warning,
Very well played.
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Old 16-02-11, 02:59   #47
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Very well played.
ya, they got me in the end though, was literally next hand i exposed aq, def for the best though as steam was coming outta my ears with this clock callin punk, grabbed a cuppa and chilled right out
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Old 16-02-11, 03:27   #48
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It was a total random spot for me so do want to learn from it. Reason i raised is to build the pot where i have a huge edge or just take it down right there. Didn't think he would ever shove. Call though is the right play though i think. Surely its an easy fold when he shove though when its still so deep?
Raising with the intention to fold makes no sense in this spot.
What did you think would happen? The vilain flats sees if he hits? (knowing that he can only really lose chips post flop)

I only raise to snap a shove, so AK and QQ+ are all i raise.

We have a slight edge with 77, and when he shoves its still hugely EV, but the edge of taking a flop and evaluating is way bigger. It allows you to get away when he hits, value bet his misses, and reverso the flops where you both hit.

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Originally Posted by jack90210 View Post
I really thought this would be a simple fold with how deep i am and far too early to take a huge flip. I would assume i have a lot better spots to come.
This concept of "a better spot" later is silly. It's true that at some point with a good structure, you'll hit the nuts, and can get some chips in with 100% equity. But, 100% equity is alot more valuable if you were taking every edge earlier and now have a bigger stack.

I'm under no illusions that you don't bust out a lot by calling the shove. But you simply can't afford to pass this spot. nobody can, no matter what they think their edge is.
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Old 16-02-11, 03:33   #49
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Thread is in bits.

Amazed you 3bet/folded pre when you could see his cards.
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Old 16-02-11, 04:38   #50
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Raise folding horrible here, if you raise you have to be prepared to call the shove. This is an unusual spot but I'd bet that if it did arise 100 times, the average live donk villain shoves on you more than half the time. I am an advocate of the "avoid marginal edges for your whole stack or big chunk in soft fields and deep structures" school of thought but this is simply too big of an edge to pass up unless you're playing schoolchildren who are unclear on the rules and who shout out their hand to you every time.

Flat call pre is much better.
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Old 16-02-11, 09:49   #51
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Originally Posted by Midnitekowby View Post
reverse of this happened to me 1st time i played main @ wsop. day4 pre bubble, sum guys called clock on me after literally 10secs, he wasnt even in the hand, i called him a donut...td came over to ban me an orbit of the table,i refused to leave..

He consulted with higher up td who said "Sir u have to leave for an orbit for personally abusing another player"...i told him i didnt abuse him...he said "you called seat 8 a donkey" i told him i called him a donut, which was a term of enderment in Ireland...they were momentarily stunned, then laughed and just gave me warning?

actually lol
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Old 16-02-11, 10:41   #52
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Option 1: Fold
EV = 0

Option 2: Call and bet if he misses the flop
He will hit flop about 36% of the time (right?) – assume he bets and we fold: -1300 x 36% = -468
We will bet 64% of the time and he will mostly fold: +2400 x 64% = +1536
Sometimes he will call when he misses the flop – that will add some value to this option. Ignoring that value, the EV of this option is +1068

Option 3: Raise to 5k
Have to guess some probabilities here – lets say he will fold / call / push 1/3rd of the time each
If he folds: +2400/3 = 800
If he calls, we are back to the same scenario as 1: -4700 x 36% = -1692, +5800 x 64% = 3712 => +2020 if he calls.... divide by 3 for probability that he calls = 673 (plus of course more if we think he will still call out of stubbornness)
If he pushes and we fold that’s -4700 / 3 = -1567 which brings the total EV of raising into negative territory (conclusion based on this: do not raise if you won’t call a shove!)
If he pushes and we call, we are 55% to take the lot: -47700 x 45%, +46400 x 55% = 4055... divide by 3 = 1352
Overall EV of raising: +2825

Overall conclusion... go ahead and raise unless you suffer from TLS (which you do ) (in which case call)
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Old 16-02-11, 10:45   #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jack90210 View Post
I really thought this would be a simple fold with how deep i am and far too early to take a huge flip. I would assume i have a lot better spots to come.
There was a great article by one of the full tilt pros a long time ago about folding QQ to an exposed AK in the first hand of a deepstack tournament expecting to find "better spots" later on.

I can't remember the exact maths/logic, but basically the fold and wait line was pretty well shown to be a fallacy.
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Old 16-02-11, 13:29   #54
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This should in the future be known as he 'Russ Hamilton Situation'
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Old 16-02-11, 14:03   #55
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maximise the advantage you've gained..... flat it and pump the flop.....
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Old 16-02-11, 14:31   #56
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Delighted some one else did the numbers on it , i saw this last night and was going to do it today.

The exposed K2 hasnt been mentioned much but this takes a slight bit of equity from the AQ's straight and wheel draw

I would also have just flatted pre fwiw
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Old 16-02-11, 14:32   #57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Midnitekowby View Post
reverse of this happened to me 1st time i played main @ wsop. day4 pre bubble, sum guys called clock on me after literally 10secs, he wasnt even in the hand, i called him a donut...td came over to ban me an orbit of the table,i refused to leave..

He consulted with higher up td who said "Sir u have to leave for an orbit for personally abusing another player"...i told him i didnt abuse him...he said "you called seat 8 a donkey" i told him i called him a donut, which was a term of enderment in Ireland...they were momentarily stunned, then laughed and just gave me warning, i turned around in seat and action was on me in sb,with table waiting on me, i look down at aq and raised. bb folds and i show him the aq, cause i planned on robbing him blind as bubble approached...

Then i notice a limper in mid pos, both Tds are still watching this and with great delight tell me ill be fined my orbit of table now, but can proceed with hand....I know that if that limper repopped me then that id have done the exact same and jammed the whole farm back at him, instead he flatted....alllowing me to see only 3 cards, i whiff, he bets and takes down the pot....easy + best way to play it imo

but ya agree with smoothcall there, u gotta have a plan here + if ur raising, cant raise fold. Your just creating better odds for you to make the call and then folding?
Thats just Gold
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Old 16-02-11, 14:44   #58
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I'd like to end it there and shove on him. Would really tilt him.
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Old 16-02-11, 14:58   #59
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I'd like to end it there and shove on him. Would really tilt him.
Yeah sorry meant to do an option 4...

You shove and he folds (say) 50% and calls 50%
Fold: +2400
Call: -46700 x 45%, 48800 x 55% = +5825
Overall: +4112


Shove therefore is >EV compared to raising but is obviously also ++ variance

This is all very read dependant, mostly your read on what a weekend warrior with a wife will do when you raise / push


... hang on no way he is 50% to call a shove so EV is overstated... insert own figures!

Last edited by EssEll; 16-02-11 at 15:19. Reason: hang on no way...
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Old 16-02-11, 22:41   #60
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There was a great article by one of the full tilt pros a long time ago about folding QQ to an exposed AK in the first hand of a deepstack tournament expecting to find "better spots" later on.

I can't remember the exact maths/logic, but basically the fold and wait line was pretty well shown to be a fallacy.
Yeah, its a good article. I remember reading it pretty much thinking that this is solid proof for taking every edge.
It also show the difference in percieved edge and actual edge.


EssEll,
you have the right idea in working out the +EV with figures. But you've made a mistake or two, so your +EV numbers are misleading.

Firstly there is no point it getting really specific with % calcs, and chip EV if we have to very roughly estimate his fold/call/raise action. I see you noticed this for option 4, but it also applies to option 3, I really doubt he calls/pushes/folds in equal amounts. Given we know his cards, he is push or fold mode.

You also ignored the flops were we hit a 7, and he also hits. This is the real value of the situation. He is clearly not very good, and a bit of a loose cannon and getting value won't be hard.

Doing fully accurate calcs wouldn't be impossible, but the time spend on it is a waste. It's such a rare situation. You are better off knowing the reasons that taking the flop is simply best, and that raise folding is very bad.
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