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Old 07-02-11, 13:46   #21
RichieM
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Definite fold. If I get AA or KK early in a MTT or SNG ata low level I will shove all in expecting to get called by alsorts of muck. Usually you get atleast once loose call.
Question is always - Do I mind flipping off my stack if he has AK,AJ etc and do I really think anyone would open shove with a worse pair. Anwer to the first should be no I hope and the answer to the second is probably not as there are no blinds to steal. Sure you get some donks who will put it in with worse but you should be able to get the chips off them easily later in the game if you dont get busted here.
Nonsense spot this early that always comes up on the lower levels but withou the info that your oponent has just taken a massive line your are usually behind, sometimes a flip and only very rarely ahead.
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Old 07-02-11, 13:53   #22
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I just fold this....you might be ahead but I think its unlikely. Have seen people do this with AA trying to catch someone with a lower pair or AK.
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Old 07-02-11, 14:11   #23
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Originally Posted by leroydalegend View Post
I just fold this....you might be ahead but I think its unlikely. Have seen people do this with AA trying to catch someone with a lower pair or AK.
forget my long confusing post above - This is what I meant
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Old 07-02-11, 14:18   #24
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TT is super fast fold Aks too
more qiestionable is what do we do with QQ

the TT call is burning money
its all ICM if you call and win you gain some % eq in the sng but you also give % eq to the other players and overall you need to be seriously ahead to make a 40BB call with TT in sng
if the shover had some stats like 56/38 and shoved more than once maybe then you could look at a call but I would guess you need 60% eq to be worth the call and I doubt you have it agaisnt UTG mad shove range
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Old 07-02-11, 14:25   #25
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Originally Posted by Stoko View Post
TT is super fast fold Aks too
more qiestionable is what do we do with QQ

the TT call is burning money
its all ICM if you call and win you gain some % eq in the sng but you also give % eq to the other players and overall you need to be seriously ahead to make a 40BB call with TT in sng
if the shover had some stats like 56/38 and shoved more than once maybe then you could look at a call but I would guess you need 60% eq to be worth the call and I doubt you have it agaisnt UTG mad shove range
QQ is a puke call and I reckon JJ is a fold. I think that's what the maths say anyone. I hate giving up edges.

Last edited by peterswellman; 07-02-11 at 14:58.
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Old 07-02-11, 14:33   #26
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QQ is a puke call
Your crazy
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Old 07-02-11, 14:39   #27
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Your crazy
Not really.

Consider two situations.
First, we have QQ in the very first hand of a tournament 150bb stacks, you know everyone else in the tournament hasn't a clue about poker, and that you will easily be able to outplay them on all streets at all stages.

You are on the button and UTG shoves, UTG+1 calls and MP calls. What do you do?

Secondly
We are late in another tournament, average stack is 12 bbs and bubble is fast approaching. You get QQ on the button and UTG playing 9bbs shoves, UTG+1 playing 8 bb calls and MP playing 22 bbs reshoves.

What do you do?

Can you see how insanely different these situations are?

The timing of opening of shove/calling ranges is where most people get things very very wrong in tournament poker.
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Old 07-02-11, 14:39   #28
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Your crazy
what range do you put the shover on??
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Old 07-02-11, 14:49   #29
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what range do you put the shover on??
I dont see how you cant give him AA or KK most of the time with AK suited most of the rest. I would prob fold QQ to be honest but not be happy about it.
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Old 07-02-11, 15:01   #30
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if UTG+1 is shoving KK+ AQs+ ATs A5s-A3s AKo in temrs of ICM we can only call with KK+

http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sn...s8=530&s9=2630
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Old 07-02-11, 15:06   #31
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Your crazy
It's not a case of I've two queens ship the loots. It's about putting people on ranges and making profitable long term calls.
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Old 07-02-11, 15:10   #32
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Surely the crazy bit is that people call here.
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Old 07-02-11, 15:13   #33
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Genuine LOLs ITT
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Old 07-02-11, 15:17   #34
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Genuine LOLs ITT
Keep calling here with 10 10 and losing money because that's exactly what it is. Math proves if your examining ICM etc.
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Old 07-02-11, 15:55   #35
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Originally Posted by peterswellman View Post
Keep calling here with 10 10 and losing money because that's exactly what it is. Math proves if your examining ICM etc.
math eh? I like math (this is very rough so maybe a couple of pips out cant do math in my head

say we give UTG+1 a realistic pushing range of 22+ and any over cards that consist of AJ+ AJs+. Note in this example Im not including the other TT or any A2s+ hands etc. Mainly because it un-necessarily strentgthens my point but it is also far more likely that a villain pushes a PP over A5s etc

Anyway

Pairs

8 pairs we beat - 48 combos - 80%

3 pairs that beat us - 18 combos - 20%

Total EV on all pair hands = 65% roughly

Overcards
including suits it averages out that we are 56% over 48 combos

Total

64 combos = 65%
48 combos = 56%

that rounds up to around 58-59% I think

So basucally you are telling me you are giving up a MINIMUM of 8-9% EV on the call

with all due respect folders GTFO
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Old 07-02-11, 15:59   #36
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Originally Posted by Bubbleking View Post
So basucally you are telling me you are giving up a MINIMUM of 8-9% EV on the call

with all due respect folders GTFO
The rest isn't fully right either, but even if this is true, its probably still a fold... You are worried about winning the pot, not thinking about chips, cEV or position in the tournament as it is. In a cash game, completely different, as we essentially make all decisions into infinity (an assumption for cash games), but doesn't hold here.

The game isn't as black and white as the calculations above.
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Old 07-02-11, 16:07   #37
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Surely the crazy bit is that people call here.
Where? What are u refer to the QQ or TT?
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Old 07-02-11, 16:10   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bubbleking View Post
math eh? I like math (this is very rough so maybe a couple of pips out cant do math in my head

say we give UTG+1 a realistic pushing range of 22+ and any over cards that consist of AJ+ AJs+. Note in this example Im not including the other TT or any A2s+ hands etc. Mainly because it un-necessarily strentgthens my point but it is also far more likely that a villain pushes a PP over A5s etc

Anyway

Pairs

8 pairs we beat - 48 combos - 80%

3 pairs that beat us - 18 combos - 20%

Total EV on all pair hands = 65% roughly

Overcards
including suits it averages out that we are 56% over 48 combos

Total

64 combos = 65%
48 combos = 56%

that rounds up to around 58-59% I think

So basucally you are telling me you are giving up a MINIMUM of 8-9% EV on the call

with all due respect folders GTFO
thats not $Ev (ICM) calculation!! thats pure cEV
you need SNGWiz or a big massive spreadsheet to calculate $Ev among 9 players. I am at work and dont have SNGWiz here to run the simulation but in 9man sng its PROVEN FOLD!!! Its not even needed to go re calc something thta has been cacled so many times!!! I am surprised ppl even discuss a call here!!!
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Old 07-02-11, 16:15   #39
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Originally Posted by Stoko View Post
thats not $Ev (ICM) calculation!! thats pure cEV
you need SNGWiz or a big massive spreadsheet to calculate $Ev among 9 players. I am at work and dont have SNGWiz here to run the simulation but in 9man sng its PROVEN FOLD!!! Its not even needed to go re calc something thta has been cacled so many times!!! I am surprised ppl even discuss a call here!!!
At a full table i.e. 6 off the bubble and the blinds the way they are I dont see the benfit of using ICM over pure EV
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Old 07-02-11, 16:27   #40
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say we give UTG+1 a realistic pushing range of 22+ and any over cards that consist of AJ+ AJs+.
Biggest problem with your maths here is that this isn't the realistic shoving range. In these spots you are almost always up against a monster. Only othere alternative is someone fucked outta there mind and without going a deeper to get that read you have to take it as someone with a monster looking to get it in against someone who uses your thought process. If they have made aplay to steal here then let them have it as they will be busted soon but this early in a SnG if you are happy to flip for your stack then you are playing the game wrong. Will be much better spots where you have control of the pot to move on later.
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