Irish Poker Boards
Register Arcade FAQ Members List Calendar Mark Forums Read

Go Back   Irish Poker Boards > Poker > Poker Theory, Strategy and Rulings > Tournament Poker
Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-12-10, 15:26   #21
bustamoves
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 512
Quote:
Originally Posted by Keane View Post
I'm far from a good poker player but the TT hand seems like a trivially easy fold to the river bet.
His calling range pre is superwide. Basically I figured he was goin to call any raise bar an all in from me preflop so wanted his custom. I showed weakness by checking 2 streets and so he is more likely to bluff river IMO and also he seemed one of those types that would bet bottom pair on the river not knowing whether it was a value or bluff. So yes he can have flush straights and hands that have me crushed obv but given his preflop range plus fishy tendencies from previous pots I figured I could be ahead here a fair bit. If I am getting 3 to 1 that means I need to be ahead 25% to make it profitable. Are u guys saying it's nowhere near that given the way the hand played out and his preflop range and said tendencies? Ok I can see someone bringing up the saving chips value for future use as a factor/stack protection but I also figured I still had close to the 10 bigs pushing stack if I called and lost.
bustamoves is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-12-10, 15:31   #22
Keane
Martingale Enthusiast
 
Keane's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Under the sea
Posts: 13,566
Send a message via MSN to Keane
I'm not convinced a fish would bet a half pot to try and push you off your hand, more likely to bet closer to pot no?

What kind of hand are you hoping to see him turn over? I just don't see it tbh...
Keane is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-12-10, 15:32   #23
Angry-Ball
A rather odd chap
 
Angry-Ball's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: 6 inches into BB Baskin
Posts: 6,635
Quote:
Originally Posted by bustamoves View Post
so if you wouldn't mind explaining why cking is worse than betting (if i bet i lose same or more as it happens in this case but i understand we have the luxury of knowing what he has now). so assume you have gotten into situation with the TT now and that mistake (of not open shoving) is made, how do you proceed vs huge fish who has loads of chips on said flop with said stack size and reasoning behind please.

i have to admit i can be stubborn and defensive and have lots of things i need ironed out of my game but i aint willing to just assume that because one or two people on here agree that i should take it as definitely right.


so are are u saying bet flop? if so how much, and how do you proceed and why from there. tnx

there is no need to get defensive, nobody on here cares if you improve your game quite the opposite actually the more fish around the better. but you have asked for advice and people have taken the time to give you their advice.

now to answer your question
there is a piece of software available for free called poker stove down load it and enter the hand into it as played. the result you will get here is based on the results of thousands/millions of hands played. it will show you that by the river you have a 45% chance of winning, so calling that river all day is a loosing proposition.
also without even knowing these statistics the very fact that he bets such a small amt on such a board just screams value bet to me
__________________



"Remember the time he ate my goldfish? And you lied and said I never had goldfish. Then why did I have the bowl, Bart? Why did I have the bowl?"
Angry-Ball is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-12-10, 15:36   #24
Keane
Martingale Enthusiast
 
Keane's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Under the sea
Posts: 13,566
Send a message via MSN to Keane
Quote:
Originally Posted by Angry-Ball View Post
there is no need to get defensive, nobody on here cares if you improve your game quite the opposite actually the more fish around the better. but you have asked for advice and people have taken the time to give you their advice.

now to answer your question
there is a piece of software available for free called poker stove down load it and enter the hand into it as played. the result you will get here is based on the results of thousands/millions of hands played. it will show you that by the river you have a 45% chance of winning, so calling that river all day is a loosing proposition.
also without even knowing these statistics the very fact that he bets such a small amt on such a board just screams value bet to me
I love when I get things right
Keane is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-12-10, 15:41   #25
Angry-Ball
A rather odd chap
 
Angry-Ball's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: 6 inches into BB Baskin
Posts: 6,635
Quote:
Originally Posted by Keane View Post
I love when I get things right
i wouldn't go by what iam saying
shur ffs iam loosing money at this game
__________________



"Remember the time he ate my goldfish? And you lied and said I never had goldfish. Then why did I have the bowl, Bart? Why did I have the bowl?"
Angry-Ball is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-12-10, 15:53   #26
DeadParrot
Grand High Wizard
 
DeadParrot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 18,802
Quote:
Originally Posted by bustamoves View Post
dunno how you can go as far as saying it is superbad. the guy is a fish and had plenty of bluffs and one pair hands i beat. i am calling here all day against this kind of player
not on that board you don't.
A general rule of thumb is if a bad player like this checks all streets and leads the river he has a decent hand. Overcards, OSED, 4 flush, there isn't a lot you are beating.

As for the OP hand it's a push all day.

Quote:
i raised utg with TsTd
this is the pertinant part.
15bb's,UTG, that is a push all day.
__________________
People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
Do you wish to be as happy as me? Be the envy of all your friends, more attractive to the opposite sex, successful in life
https://initiativeq.com/invite/rMlZqFhsQ
DeadParrot is offline   Reply With Quote
Thanks From:
Old 08-12-10, 16:01   #27
bustamoves
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 512
I am on my iPhone at the moment but when I get back I will stick it in to pokerstove. I suspect you could be right if I give him range of and heart any one pair type hands straights sets and a certain percentage of bluffs. Always happy to learn but won't be put off by sarcasm.
bustamoves is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-12-10, 17:02   #28
bustamoves
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 512
Quote:
Originally Posted by bustamoves View Post
yes i am on the defensive because i am not convinced it is 'superbad' but am willing to be convinced otherwise. so if you wouldn't mind explaining why cking is worse than betting (if i bet i lose same or more as it happens in this case but i understand we have the luxury of knowing what he has now). so assume you have gotten into situation with the TT now and that mistake (of not open shoving) is made, how do you proceed vs huge fish who has loads of chips on said flop with said stack size and reasoning behind please.

i have to admit i can be stubborn and defensive and have lots of things i need ironed out of my game but i aint willing to just assume that because one or two people on here agree that i should take it as definitely right.


so are are u saying bet flop? if so how much, and how do you proceed and
why from there. tnx
Ok you don't have to answer. I have thought about the hand more and accept that the call was bad even if we put him on a wide range. Also betting flop here would probably have been better and folding to c/r. Checking back turn and folding to river from there seems reasonable even if it means I would have lost more in this particular case I agree it bad on reflection. Tnx for ur comment guys. Next case.
bustamoves is offline   Reply With Quote
Thanks From:
Old 08-12-10, 20:11   #29
Angry-Ball
A rather odd chap
 
Angry-Ball's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: 6 inches into BB Baskin
Posts: 6,635
Quote:
Originally Posted by bustamoves View Post
I am on my iPhone at the moment but when I get back I will stick it in to pokerstove. I suspect you could be right if I give him range of and heart any one pair type hands straights sets and a certain percentage of bluffs. Always happy to learn but won't be put off by sarcasm.
you don't even have to give him a range just give him any random had(effectively any two cards) and you are 45% to win if you assign ranges iam sure his win percentage increases
__________________



"Remember the time he ate my goldfish? And you lied and said I never had goldfish. Then why did I have the bowl, Bart? Why did I have the bowl?"
Angry-Ball is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 08-12-10, 20:30   #30
bustamoves
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 512
Talking

Well lolz me then. Kinda hilarious actually. Might have found one of those leaks eh

What % does pokerstove say any 2 random cards is versus my TT on that board byw? Not back home yet and won't be for few hours. Just for the laugh post it there angryball if u have a chance.tn

Sh*t sorry. U say 45% already. Struggling to read on my phone here. that is hilarious

Last edited by bustamoves; 08-12-10 at 20:32.
bustamoves is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-12-10, 01:44   #31
Mellor
Member
 
Mellor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Location: Location:
Posts: 10,332
Quote:
Originally Posted by bustamoves View Post
yes i am on the defensive because i am not convinced it is 'superbad' but am willing to be convinced otherwise. so if you wouldn't mind explaining why cking is worse than betting (if i bet i lose same or more as it happens in this case but i understand we have the luxury of knowing what he has now).
the fact that we prob would of lost any way means nothing when analysis. Results based thinking has no purpose.


Quote:
so assume you have gotten into situation with the TT now and that mistake (of not open shoving) is made, how do you proceed vs huge fish who has loads of chips on said flop with said stack size and reasoning behind please.

so are are u saying bet flop? if so how much, and how do you proceed and why from there. tnx
Again, its best to just correct the mistake of not shoving rather than trying to outplay the mistake postflop. Long term it's best for you. But, i'll humour you;

So you raise to 2.25BBs or so, He calls
Sepending on the player's stats, specificly fold to c-bet,
if he folds a lot then c-bet, if and when he calls I'm done with the hand, folding to any more action.
If he calls a lot of c-bets. I check flop and take the free card on the turn with the OESD. River I fold to all bets.





Quote:
Originally Posted by bustamoves View Post
Sh*t sorry. U say 45% already. Struggling to read on my phone here. that is hilarious
given ATC its 45%, do you now agree that it's likely you are 25%. given the player, he bets every single heart that he gets to the turn with
__________________
Mellor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-12-10, 03:05   #32
bustamoves
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 512
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mellor View Post
the fact that we prob would of lost any way means nothing when analysis. Results based thinking has no purpose.



Again, its best to just correct the mistake of not shoving rather than trying to outplay the mistake postflop. Long term it's best for you. But, i'll humour you;

So you raise to 2.25BBs or so, He calls
Sepending on the player's stats, specificly fold to c-bet,
if he folds a lot then c-bet, if and when he calls I'm done with the hand, folding to any more action.
If he calls a lot of c-bets. I check flop and take the free card on the turn with the OESD. River I fold to all bets.






given ATC its 45%, do you now agree that it's likely you are 25%. given the player, he bets every single heart that he gets to the turn with
please bear with me Mellor i am just thinking about this hand again and am having doubts again. just a few moments while i try get my thinking clear and read through your post and the others again. it clicked earlier but i have doubt again because my mind says we are wrong in assigning the ATC cards range vs my TT in this case. please bear with me. tnx
bustamoves is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-12-10, 16:14   #33
bustamoves
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 512
Quote:
Originally Posted by Angry-Ball View Post
you don't even have to give him a range just give him any random had(effectively any two cards) and you are 45% to win if you assign ranges iam sure his win percentage increases
so if i am 45% to win what odds do i need to call river bet? 11/10?
bustamoves is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-12-10, 16:19   #34
Keane
Martingale Enthusiast
 
Keane's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Under the sea
Posts: 13,566
Send a message via MSN to Keane
Quote:
Originally Posted by bustamoves View Post
so if i am 45% to win what odds do i need to call river bet? 11/10?
His range is going to be significantly stronger than any random two, so you're a good bit worse off than 45% I'd be guessing.
Keane is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-12-10, 16:22   #35
bustamoves
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 512
Quote:
Originally Posted by Keane View Post
His range is going to be significantly stronger than any random two, so you're a good bit worse off than 45% I'd be guessing.

hang on a second here, give him another 10% then. no, lets go crazy and give him 20%. that makes me 25% vs his range (btw i think about his range different anyway) to win and i am getting 3/1? am i missing something here
bustamoves is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-12-10, 16:28   #36
Emmet
Bashful the next day
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 16,780
That's only if he bets everything he gets to the river with. It's a fairly moot point tbh, because you shouldnt have any river decisions to make if you play the hand 'correctly'.

But since its being asked, What hands does he have that bet the river anyway? Just give us a small sample? And how many of these do you beat? In tournaments, you want to preserve your stack, because you can't simply reload if you're wrong, or come against the top of someone's range. Calling there is not worth it.
Emmet is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-12-10, 16:34   #37
bustamoves
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 512
Quote:
Originally Posted by Emmet View Post
That's only if he bets everything he gets to the river with. It's a fairly moot point tbh, because you shouldnt have any river decisions to make if you play the hand 'correctly'.

But since its being asked, What hands does he have that bet the river anyway? Just give us a small sample? And how many of these do you beat? In tournaments, you want to preserve your stack, because you can't simply reload if you're wrong, or come against the top of someone's range. Calling there is not worth it.
this is the way i think about his range as the hand played out. (btw with all due repsect i asked earlier in the thread that we leave aside the debate regarding stack protection andlets go on whether this is a bad call based on my range vs his range)

(i wrote this last nite btw)
so here's my thinking. as the hand played out i was assuming the guys range by the river to be either a flush or a bluff.

i didnt think he was good enough to value bet a king or two pair type hands and may not even have bet a straight or set either (being afraid of the lone heart flush) but do find these types randomly turn worse hands into bluffs (like A8o for eg).

so if i am right making this assumption (and you may argue this is where i am going all wrong) can i make the following range analysis and be ok with it?

hands that i figure he will bet on river
part 1. a flush

and 2. bluffs i beat and bluffs i dont (atc non-heart that beat TsTc)

so part 1.
lets say any flush for simplicity (that's any hand with a heart in it)= 36%
(i hope i am right in my calc i worked it out like this- (9/45 x 8/44 + 9/45x36/44 + 36/45x9/44)= .362 chance his hand contains at least one heart

and part 2.
now lets say he bluffs 10% of the time. so what proportion of this 10% (ATC non heart containing) can we assume actually beat me. whats this figure? can we find out? its got to be small anway but i dont know how to calc it exactly

so lets say we add 2% on that makes him having us beat 38% of the time and so i would need 6/4 for a breakeven call on the river? But we are offered 3/1 in this case.

am i thinking about it correctly guys or am i barking mad in the way i think?
bustamoves is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-12-10, 16:42   #38
Emmet
Bashful the next day
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 16,780
It's very different from cash games!
Your analysis above lends itself to cash, not tournament decisions. You can't ignore stack dynamic in tournaments!

Also, your ranges are still a bit off. Though there is a .362 chance that he has at least one heart in his hand (going by your sums), he doesn't even bet all of these hands. That is the chance of him having a heart. The chance of him not having a heart AND betting this river is what you need to focus on. He probably doesnt bet lower than the 6h flush, and that's fairly wild as is.

IMO, almost never is a passive fish bettin with anything you beat on this board. P(no heart + river bet) vs villain described = tiny
Emmet is offline   Reply With Quote
Thanks From:
Old 09-12-10, 16:50   #39
bustamoves
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 512
Quote:
Originally Posted by Emmet View Post
It's very different from cash games!
Your analysis above lends itself to cash, not tournament decisions. You can't ignore stack dynamic in tournaments!

Also, your ranges are still a bit off. Though there is a .362 chance that he has at least one heart in his hand (going by your sums), he doesn't even bet all of these hands. That is the chance of him having a heart. The chance of him not having a heart AND betting this river is what you need to focus on. He probably doesnt bet lower than the 6h flush, and that's fairly wild as is.
IMO, almost never is a passive fish bettin with anything you beat on this board. P(no heart + river bet) vs villain described = tiny
ok so how does that affect the equation? give it some reasonable percentage and factor it in? how doe this change things and by how much roughly? it works in favour of my argument becuase now his range is even more polarized right?

(also i dont want to come off the point here but dont i still have around ten big blinds left if i call and thats consdiered an ok stack for stealing right?)

Last edited by bustamoves; 09-12-10 at 16:56. Reason: spelling + additional
bustamoves is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-12-10, 16:57   #40
Emmet
Bashful the next day
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 16,780
I'm on my phone so can't do much in the way of ranges and percentages.

If he bets worse than TT no flush one time in fifteen on that board I would be surprised.
Your hand is pretty much junk there! You shouldn't really need a range to figure out if calling is +0.005chips EV or whatever odds. Trying to justify the call will wind your head up.

"make it easy on yourself" - solid advice I've seen written here plenty of times
Emmet is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

  Irish Poker Boards > Poker > Poker Theory, Strategy and Rulings > Tournament Poker

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT. The time now is 17:22.