Tricky spot 250BB deep

[Willim]

The Fitz $1-$2 pot limit 9 handed
Average stack is 100BB
Hero is in MP with 300BB, villain is UTG with a 250BB stack
Reads on the villain he is tight weak, plays straight forward with his strong hands and is somewhat competant.
Table has been playing quite passive to this point, no recent history between hero and villain

Action- Villain limps UTG
-UTG+2 limps
-hero raises to $10 from MP with 109
-Button cold calls and both limpers call.
Pots is $43

Flop is 10-9-6,
-checked to hero
-hero bets $40,
-button folds and villains raises to $125
-UTG+2 folds
-action on hero????

[Thefonze]

Standard , he has A10 , get all the chips in, if however he has 10's not sure why the chips would not go in anyhow. Not that tricky tbh.

[Hectorjelly]

Standard , he has A10 , get all the chips in, if however he has 10's not sure why the chips would not go in anyhow. Not that tricky tbh.

You think a weaktight player plays AT like this?

I'd just fold against the opponent described in the OP, your hand looks good but is actually relatively awful, you don't beat a single hand he is raising for value.

In any case this is terrible advice, as three betting the flop will definitely get him to fold AT.

[mcnugget]

Not a nice spot, I don't like it but I don't think you can fold to a single raise on such a drawy board. Yes you are crushed by his value range but there is a huge range of draws/semibluffs in there too, even given his passive nature. Call and evaluate turn for me.

[Daragh999]

I can't think of a single hand that raises for value or that were doing v well against (except if he has the same hand), so i prob puke, tank for about 5 mins then fold . Its never AT/overpair IMO and the only thing we are a slight equity favourite against is A7/A8 and that might not even raise given the read on the villian. Could you PM me who the villian is Will if you don't mind?

[Moneymaker]

This is 66/99/TT probably 80%+ of the time vs this kind of player. Heavily skewed towards 66 for obvious reasons.

We can call, problem is we hate basically any turn that isnt a 9 or T and we're gonna face a shove very very often.

It's ghey to fold a hand this strong(its not really that strong here though) but putting in 300bbs vs this kind of player is burning money for me.

100bbs is like shrug and stick it in and 'lol variance' if we're beat but thats not the case this deep.

[Mellor]

Standard , he has A10 , get all the chips in, if however he has 10's not sure why the chips would not go in anyhow. Not that tricky tbh.

You think trying to get 250BBs hoping he has TPTK is a good idea.
I suppose its a cooler when he has 66

Not a nice spot, I don't like it but I don't think you can fold to a single raise on such a drawy board. Yes you are crushed by his value range but there is a huge range of draws/semibluffs in there too, even given his passive nature. Call and evaluate turn for me.

Even if there are lots of draws/semi-bluffs on top of his value range. He most likely fires a second barrel with these. So the rare times we are actually ahead on the flop, he end up folding anyway.
We have 4 outs* at best. Just let it pass.

[Arazi]

I call and see what the turn brings. He's limped utg and called to see a 4 way flop oop. Ye he could have a set (66 being the most obvious for multiple reasons) but I'd think that a combo is more likely, QJss or KJss or the hands that Daragh said. He could also have flopped a straight but I wouldn't fold top 2 here to one raise in pot limit.
If he fires big on a blank I'm most likely calling.

[Hectorjelly]

Equity vs all sets, combo draws (inc AT of spades) and straights


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

12,870 games 0.000 secs 2,574,000 games/sec

Board: Td 9c 6c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.775% 26.24% 00.54% 3377 69.00 { Th9h }
Hand 1: 73.225% 72.69% 00.54% 9355 69.00 { TT-99, 66, AcTc, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, 87s }


---

[pocket9s]

Equity vs all sets, combo draws (inc AT of spades) and straights


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

12,870 games 0.000 secs 2,574,000 games/sec

Board: Td 9c 6c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.775% 26.24% 00.54% 3377 69.00 { Th9h }
Hand 1: 73.225% 72.69% 00.54% 9355 69.00 { TT-99, 66, AcTc, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, 87s }


---

I was thinking along these lines, so i guess folding is right

[Arazi]

Equity vs all sets, combo draws (inc AT of spades) and straights


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

12,870 games 0.000 secs 2,574,000 games/sec

Board: Td 9c 6c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 26.775% 26.24% 00.54% 3377 69.00 { Th9h }
Hand 1: 73.225% 72.69% 00.54% 9355 69.00 { TT-99, 66, AcTc, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, 87s }


---

Not wanting to be argumentative but genuinely what is the point of this post?
The figures are speculative at best.
We're close to flipping against combos and drawing to at best 4 outs against sets and straights, in some cases we're dead. It all comes down to range which this takes no account of. Moneymaker is 80% sets so his equity is very low, I'd have sets much much lower so I can peel.
To me apart from looking impressive to poker stove without assigning % to ranges is a wasteful exercise.

[Strewelpeter]

Not wanting to be argumentative but genuinely what is the point of this post?
The figures are speculative at best.
We're close to flipping against combos and drawing to at best 4 outs against sets and straights, in some cases we're dead. It all comes down to range which this takes no account of. Moneymaker is 80% sets so his equity is very low, I'd have sets much much lower so I can peel.
To me apart from looking impressive to poker stove without assigning % to ranges is a wasteful exercise.

Its the Fitz, that is the range I don't believe that unless you knew Villain very well you can assign too much weighting to the components of that range.

Or to put it another way I used try to weight it towards the combo draw and never fold in these spots and I lost about 70% of the time

[Moneymaker]

Moneymaker is 80% sets so his equity is very low, I'd have sets much much lower so I can peel.

Wasn't really a scientific calculation. I've just found in these kind of situations when a nitty guy raises here he has a set so so so often.

That's just my personal experience.

[Arazi]

Ye I know, but ur making ur decision based on proportioning his range which is absolutely the correct thing to do.

[RoadSweeper]

Not wanting to be argumentative but genuinely what is the point of this post?
The figures are speculative at best.
We're close to flipping against combos and drawing to at best 4 outs against sets and straights, in some cases we're dead. It all comes down to range which this takes no account of. Moneymaker is 80% sets so his equity is very low, I'd have sets much much lower so I can peel.
To me apart from looking impressive to poker stove without assigning % to ranges is a wasteful exercise.

Huh? The stove was exactly what you said it wasn't.

[Hectorjelly]

Not wanting to be argumentative but genuinely what is the point of this post?
The figures are speculative at best.
We're close to flipping against combos and drawing to at best 4 outs against sets and straights, in some cases we're dead. It all comes down to range which this takes no account of. Moneymaker is 80% sets so his equity is very low, I'd have sets much much lower so I can peel.
To me apart from looking impressive to poker stove without assigning % to ranges is a wasteful exercise.

The point of the post was to show the equity we have against a range I felt was accurate. I think we are about 7 years off a simple poker stove being impressive. The range is included so you can decide yourself if you think it's accurate or not.

It would be good to weight different hand types for your opponent, however this would be a) horrendously complicated, and b) really inaccurate.

If you think the ranges are inaccurate then either do one yourself or suggest better ranges.

[Arazi]

Huh? The stove was exactly what you said it wasn't.

What I mean is that instead of saying there are X combinations of sets possible, Y combinations of 12 out combos and Z 15 out combos and just pump those figures into a stove we need to actually use everything we know about the player, situation etc to actually assign a probability that they would make this move with each type of hand. You don't need poker stove for that you should be able to do it in your head when the situations arise.