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10 10 V WTF Sizing?

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    10 10 V WTF Sizing?

    Villian is 21/8 with a 5% 3bet on smallish sample I have. Villain is confirmed bad, even though we know this the second we look at the sizing. Still though he appears to be turning a profit. http://www.officialpokerrankings.com...?t=2&rc=740421

    No real other reads, i've outplayed him a few times postflop so many that's why he is hesitant to peel here. This is the $8.80, 500 player cap, with 16 to go on stars. Close to $800 for first. Current pay is $36. Stick it in or fold against random here?

    Poker Stars No-Limit Hold'em Tournament, 1500/3000 Blinds (8 handed) - Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    SB (t41429)
    BB (t70396)
    UTG (t70530)
    Hero (UTG+1) (t108534)
    MP1 (t231138)
    MP2 (t63262)
    CO (t51174)
    Button (t91590)

    Hero's M: 24.12

    Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 10, 10
    1 fold, Hero bets t6600, MP1 raises t57000, 5 folds, Hero ???????????
    Last edited by peterswellman; 04-03-12, 01:30.

    #2
    easy fold imo

    Comment


      #3
      Pretty sure I'm gonna fold here. You have to think about what kind of hands he 3bet/calls here with (as we have no FE) and I don't think 1010 is not gonna be in great shape vs his range. I don't think a guy like this is ever gonna show up with a worse pair here like ever.

      It sounds really nitty to fold 1010 to such a massive 3bet, because most people will be like, he never has us beat and its always AK etc.

      I expect his range to JJ-QQ, occasionally KK or AA but probably not, and AQ+ and considering our stack size and the dynamic of the tournament we're playing (which is really soft) we should fold here and just look to chip so close to final table with so many guys who are probably gonna be afraid to bust before tthe final table.

      Players like this will basically always call worse pairs and like AJ and just horribly overplay their premiums preflop.

      I'm sure some will say that 1010 is just too big a hand to fold in this spot but when we consider, as I said, the dynamics of the tourney and our stack size, we should let this go.

      Comment


        #4
        Originally posted by Marsden02 View Post
        easy fold imo
        What do you think his range is?

        Thing is, i'm trying to get a range for a randomer to do this. AA, KK and QQ i'm totally ruling out. I guess, i'm trying to work out does he ever do this with 88-JJ, AK and AQ part of his range.

        More info to add would be i'm playing quite aggro. I'd imagine, i'm easily percieved as the most active at the table and i'm probably running something like 30/25 at a minimum with a decent 3 bet. I'm probably opening any semi-decent hand that's been opened to me in any position because this is the type of spot I normally put the boot down even more recently. With all the money tied up in the top 3, if his range is close to mine, would it be very bad going for the big pot here and almost making sure I finish top 3?

        Comment


          #5
          Originally posted by peterswellman View Post
          What do you think his range is?

          Thing is, i'm trying to get a range for a randomer to do this. AA, KK and QQ i'm totally ruling out. I guess, i'm trying to work out does he ever do this with 88-JJ, AK and AQ part of his range.
          Why? There defo a part of his range. I see fish make massive over bets preflop with these hands around the bubble/final table bubble all the time, probably because their scared of busting and want to take it down preflop.

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by davepoke/her View Post
            Why? There defo a part of his range. I see fish make massive over bets preflop with these hands around the bubble/final table bubble all the time, probably because their scared of busting and want to take it down preflop.
            He didn't really seem that scared from what i'd seen.

            Those hands destroy my wide opening range and I always thought he would be trying to induce versus me rather than sizing it like this and only having me put in my stack with hands that he's crushed by. If I had just OPR'ed him with no history, he is a winning player albeit not alot. He is doing some things right along the way.

            Maybe, i'm just trying to think unfortunately like a thinking player and not think scared like a fish and i'm too quick to rule out the top part of his range.

            Comment


              #7
              Looking at his graph on SS he looks pretty bad and just managed to luckbox a couple of scores maybe?

              SPOILER


              It's really player dependent I suppose, but i'd fold now. You'll still be second in chips on the table and with over 30bbs. There should be plenty of better spots.

              edit - the graphs not showing but there's a near 2k bink at the start and then a straight 3.5k downswing over 500 games before he binks again.
              Last edited by davepoke/her; 04-03-12, 02:01.

              Comment


                #8
                just give the donk this pot, not folding jj here

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by alanmc101 View Post
                  just give the donk this pot, not folding jj here
                  Think I dump JJ here too. Don't expect villain has worse than TT+/AQ much and rather preserve stack/edge at this stage vs a soft field
                  "c'est en faisant n'importe quoi qu'on devient n'importe qui"

                  Comment


                    #10
                    I'm on the fence here.
                    Neither folding or shoving is bad IMO.
                    They often have ak/aq 77-88-99 here.
                    Do we want to win this tournament?

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Just fold and keep raping him in the small pots.

                      No reason to give this donk a chance to win a big pot vs us when we have an edge.

                      Ghey to fold a hand this strong, but vs his range it's not really that strong.

                      He has beat or we're flipping more then we have him crushed imo.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        everyone is being way too nitty here imo, dont think he has QQ+ here, his range should be something like AJ+ 77-JJ and can prob throw in KQo+ aswell against that range we have 58.640% equity, get it in here v him double up and rape the FT bubble with your stack.

                        the fact that the the tourney is top heavy would make me want to get it in v him more in this spot.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          any results on this hand ?

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Originally posted by chips1234 View Post
                            any results on this hand ?
                            Yup sir. I shoved on the guy. He snapped Got shown AK, river was an Ace. lol variance.
                            Last edited by peterswellman; 29-03-12, 22:05.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by peterswellman View Post
                              Yup sir. I shoved on the guy. He snapped Got shown AK, river was an Ace. lol variance.
                              ul but i still get it in here all the time so i wouldn't worry about it too much

                              Comment

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