IPB Hero Our Conor Memorial Thread - (Horses Betting Obv)

[Pat Mustard]

Tracker

WHOSAIDSO 3.00 Navan - "Needs further and better ground" are my notes after last run in Navan over 2m on testing ground. Was really staying on that day and was impressed overall with its hurdling and attitude. Stepped up in trip to 2m5f today and all best runs have been over 2m4f (couple of 2nds)
10/1 available at the moment but may go off longer I think, so going to have a little e.w bet. (don't want to give it all back today..will wait till Cheltenham for that)

[amberleaf]

My old pal Aaim To Prosper has been put in to two 3 mile handicap hurdles this Saturday off a mark of approx 121.... This novice has been screaming for a step up to 3 miles + (has looked like he was getting well handicapped in races way too short), has jumped like a stag, and will be hard to beat if turning up Saturday!

best price 9/4 from 11/4.7/4 most places for the 3.30 donnie,(Barafundle w/d @ approx 8s)

[Aya14]

The Romford Pele looks an ew shot to nothing in the opener at newbury. Effectively down 5pm for finishing 4th last time and having won twice previous. The trip shouldn't be a problem either, I think the further he goes the more we'll see what a nice stayed he is


EDIT: generally a 5/1 shot though 6.4 on the machine

[westlife]

best price 9/4 from 11/4.7/4 most places for the 3.30 donnie,(Barafundle w/d @ approx 8s)

On at 11/4

[connie147]

To those that know a bit more about this game than me (and thats most)
Im going to a cheltenham preview this evening in Adare, Co. Limerick with a decent enough panel. Heres the line up

"Fantastic panel for our Chelthenham Preview night this year on Sunday 3rd of March, with MC Nick Luck, Channel 4 Presenter of the Year, Alan King, Dan Skelton assistant trainer to Paul Nicholls, Tom Segal 'Pricewise' Andrew McNamara, Willie Power and Derek O'Connor, the leading Point to Point Rider."

Considering who is on the panel, anybody got any pertinant questions for anybody specific on the panel that ye'd like asked re cheltenham obviously. I'll do a bit of a TR tomorrow on the night.

Connie

[connie147]

Connie would be great to ask Alan King for his assesment of the Triumph Hurdle. He typically does very well with juvenile hurdlers but has drawn close to a blank this year. He will have his eye on happenings though so would love to hear what way he is looking at it.

NP Noel, I'll ask him that direct question.

[The Situation]

Just thinking re Long Run has the negativity gone a little ott relative what he's actually achieved. I mean this is a horse that in 24 runs(french race included) has never finished outside the top 3, 12 of these were grade 1's, he was 1st or 2nd in 20 of the runs, has never fallen, has won the gold cup before and placed on the other occasion, has won the historically best trial two out of the last three years and placed on the other occasion.

The 182 rating was obviously lol and it's safe to say he's no superstar but does he have to be? He's unquestionably very consistent and in terms of ew bets (at 7's) you'd be confident will place at least he'd have to rate quite highly.

[Opr]

For anyone interested William Hill are going 3-1 about HF from 9am tomorrow.

http://news.williamhill.com/en/a/cheltenham-festival-promotions/3-1-hurricane-fly-as-the-cheltenham-countdown-steps-up-a-gear/

Opr

[mcnugget]

Probably a fiver max stake. These "specials" should be banned if the layer is not going to stand them for a decent amount imo, I remember Ladbrokes trumpeting on the morning line last year about enhancing some favourite, max stake was less than $50 on a non marked up a/c - joke.

[Starvin Marvin]

Just thinking re Long Run has the negativity gone a little ott relative what he's actually achieved. I mean this is a horse that in 24 runs(french race included) has never finished outside the top 3, 12 of these were grade 1's, he was 1st or 2nd in 20 of the runs, has never fallen, has won the gold cup before and placed on the other occasion, has won the historically best trial two out of the last three years and placed on the other occasion.

The 182 rating was obviously lol and it's safe to say he's no superstar but does he have to be? He's unquestionably very consistent and in terms of ew bets (at 7's) you'd be confident will place at least he'd have to rate quite highly.

He was only third in last years dire renewal when it was a perfect opportunity to win back to back Gold Cups would be another way of looking at it.

Bobs Worth and SDC look much tougher opposition than last year.

[The Situation]

He was only third in last years dire renewal when it was a perfect opportunity to win back to back Gold Cups would be another way of looking at it.

Bobs Worth and SDC look much tougher opposition than last year.

You can pick holes the pair of them as well. When's the last time a horse has won with only 1 run that season under their belt? When's the last time a horse that finished outside the top two in the Lexus has won the gold cup? Ok SDC has improved based on his form with Flem who at best has a dodgy staying profile so its hardly rock solid form that he's the only horse of note SDC has beaten over this trip.

I do think something will probably get up to beat Long Run but find it hard to fathom 3 of them doing it, assume he'll be a coinflip price in the place market which would possibly be the best play instead of ew.

[amberleaf]

does anyone,anywhere give Silviniaco Conti any sort of chance?

[Dice75]

Willie Mullins doing a Q&A on twitter at the moment with the RP. #RPQA

[The Situation]

Re Our Conor " After he (Diakili) was beaten I thought OC would go on to win at Cheltenham & it will be a tough ask to turn form around. However Paul wasn't as disheartened as me and thinks a change of tactics could do the trick so he's a nice ew bet"

[Starvin Marvin]

You can pick holes the pair of them as well. When's the last time a horse has won with only 1 run that season under their belt? When's the last time a horse that finished outside the top two in the Lexus has won the gold cup? Ok SDC has improved based on his form with Flem who at best has a dodgy staying profile so its hardly rock solid form that he's the only horse of note SDC has beaten over this trip.

I do think something will probably get up to beat Long Run but find it hard to fathom 3 of them doing it, assume he'll be a coinflip price in the place market which would possibly be the best play instead of ew.

You cant pick holes in Bobs Worth form and he looks tailor made for the Gold Cup, SDC also has been coming along nicely and looks as if the trip will suit him perfectly.

They obviously have to improve but its pretty certain they will, compared to last year when Kauto Star looked the only one capable of beating him.

[connie147]

Connie would be great to ask Alan King for his assesment of the Triumph Hurdle. He typically does very well with juvenile hurdlers but has drawn close to a blank this year. He will have his eye on happenings though so would love to hear what way he is looking at it.

Noel, I spoke with Alan King when the night was over and directed that question at him. He said in fairness, he wasnt really on top of the Irish form, but from what he does know of it, OC is easily the top Irish contender. He also said that Far West was a good horse but he was "very taken" with the Henderson horse (Rolling star) when he saw him running. I asked him what he meant by very taken, and he stared at me for a min and said "VERY VERY".
Have to say he was very approachable and we spent a good 20 mins chatting with him on his own when the night was over.

Dan Skelton said Far West was very tough and his best form is on soft ground so he doesnt want it drying out too much.
Interestingly, Tom Segal (prisewise) was talking up another Nicholls horse, Lac Fontana. he reckoned Nicholls had him hidden away in the backgrond. he was goading Dan Skelton (assistant trainer to paul Nicholls) about the horse, and in fairness, I thought Skelton was being very vague other than saying that the horse took a long time to come right after being gelded, but they were very happy with him now.

Andrew McNamara thinks OC will take all the beating.

I'll do a full TR on the Cheltenham preview night on the Cheltenham 2013 thread later today. What might be intersting though is that Simon Clase? (clerk of the course) was live on skype on the night. He said the weather over the past week hadnt gone above 3 degrees and they have had no rain and at the moment, the ground is good to soft, soft in places. he went on to say that the temp was due to go up to 10 degrees by wednesday (today) and with that will come rain (.75 of an inch expected between now and Tues). He's pretty certain that the ground will be soft for the opening day. They are expecting no rain for the duration of the festival though, so he expects the ground to improve day by day.

[westlife]

does anyone,anywhere give Silviniaco Conti any sort of chance?

yes!

[balfejohn]

Cheltenham Bumper

Hi all

Got good word for Regal Encore in the above race next Wednesday.14/1 in pp at the moment

[amberleaf]

didn't made a donation all week so time to put that right,the 3.45 carlisle is where i'm off to,its a handicap chase over 3m2f and tbh a right looking bingo race.15 runners in total with 3 last time out winners who have gone up in the ladder as a result with little value imo price wise given how competitive this race is,irish raider Mister Philson from the Crawford yard could well be good enough but not at 6/1(from 8s in places)for me with so little info on offer.the one that scored quite well is Heez A Steel @ 14/1,(scored 3rd best over all)and at the price could be a little value so thats where my score e/w is off to.good luck all.

[Pat Mustard]

Tracker

PRINCE OF FORWARDS (Clonmel 17.15) - think he will benefit with the extra 2f today. Thought he was on a winning mark last time but ran into a better one. @6/1 he's hardly value today but going to stick with him for a small bet.


GL me

Also if PLAYTIME BEN can put in a sound jumping performance then it should be good enough to win the beginners chase before hand. 4/1 is a pretty decent price imo and will have a small bet and a smal e.w.l double with previous selection.

[premierstone]

does anyone,anywhere give Silviniaco Conti any sort of chance?

out of the top few in hte betting he was the first one I dismissed tbh, he is a flat track bully to my mind and wont handle the undualtions of Cheltenham or the hill, Nicholls obviously shares this concern to some extent as he bypassed Cheltenham with him altogether last year.

[Aya14]

Interesting one today at Sandown in the 5.10.

Expanding Paradise is having his first run for Tony Carroll(ex D K Weld) Noel Fehily takes the ride. This one won a fairyhouse bumper three runs back and twice went in maiden/novice hurdles since and was far from disgraced on ground softer than good.
Generally a 9/2 shot as Nicholls has a short priced fav, looks too short to me.
EP is 6.8 on betfair atm.

Also @GAB do you fancy your runner tonight at Wolves?

[premierstone]

Yes. Expect her to win. Don't be afraid to have a decent bet on her. Just hope race pans out ok for her as she has plenty in hand of the handicapper.

Wouldn't touch that thing in the 5.10 btw.

Just what I wanted to hear, having backed it last night, put it in my tracker after your comments after its last run.

[Aya14]

Yes. Expect her to win. Don't be afraid to have a decent bet on her. Just hope race pans out ok for her as she has plenty in hand of the handicapper.

Wouldn't touch that thing in the 5.10 btw.

Lol already have a small bet on the 5.10 selection. Meh at least I didn't do a double each way with your one like I planned

[DeadParrot]

noob alert.
who is GAB's horse in Wolves tonight?

[premierstone]

noob alert.
who is GAB's horse in Wolves tonight?

Wicked Wench in the 6.10

[DeadParrot]

Ah I knew that....doh

[Sirtoyou]

Just what I wanted to hear, having backed it last night, put it in my tracker after your comments after its last run.

Yeah I backed last night too @ 4/1. Nice to see that comment from Noel having watched it drift today. Might go in again now. Is there a reason to be concerned that her Jockey from lto is on a different animal in the race?

[The Situation]

Wouldn't take drift as negative, any market where Hugh Taylor is involved is always distorted.

Does look like another above average race at this class though imo. Miss Bunter for me would be the biggest danger, smashing record around the track, last loss at Wolver was to Aubreitia who looked a bizzilion miles ahead of the handicapper based on the follow up win at Southwell yesterday. Claimer on board miss bunter will have her at a competitive mark again.

WIcked Wench is the least exposed for sure though, but will need to be close to her peak here.

[eamonhonda]

put every penny i own on it

well not quite but good for a tenner

[Aya14]

Interesting one today at Sandown in the 5.10.

Expanding Paradise is having his first run for Tony Carroll(ex D K Weld) Noel Fehily takes the ride. This one won a fairyhouse bumper three runs back and twice went in maiden/novice hurdles since and was far from disgraced on ground softer than good.
Generally a 9/2 shot as Nicholls has a short priced fav, looks too short to me.
EP is 6.8 on betfair atm.

Also @GAB do you fancy your runner tonight at Wolves?

Ugh my pick was 2nd with the fab back in 3rd

[Dice75]

Yes. Expect her to win. Don't be afraid to have a decent bet on her. Just hope race pans out ok for her as she has plenty in hand of the handicapper.

Wouldn't touch that thing in the 5.10 btw.

Jason Weaver likes her on ATR anyway. glgl.

[Guest]

Yeah seem to think she's the value anyway, let's hope so, hate seeing a horse drifting but nothing as they said really stands out!

[rounders123]

Backed it in the match bet and won!

[amberleaf]

Imperial Cup on in sandown tomorrow,with 24 runners with Mr Mole the fav @ 7/2.pipe has a great record in this and has Kazlian @ 9/1.Tominator trained by jj o neill also scores well @ 7/1.paddy power are paying 5 places 1/4 the odds ended up putting 20 e/w on Claret Cloak,also stuck a tenner e/w on Cayman Islands @ 28/1 both scored well in the profile for the price on offer.good look all

[bustamoves]

Very disappointed. Don't know what to think about it.

You gave us a great tip in Shukav at 8/1 last week. It wasn't to be this time. Hope you can make some sense of why it didn't perform to your expectations and better luck with it going forward. gl

[The Situation]

Good card at Meydan later. Shea Shea a decent bet in the sprint race. De Kocks runners in general have been coming on leaps and bounds after their first runs at the carnival, hope he follows the trend.

Would love to see Await the Dawn win, always a very likeable animal but you'd have to be slightly worried that O'Brien barely ran it twice a year and its now having its third run in a month.

[Thefonze]

Good value to be had in the Imperial Cup with 5 place ew.

First Avenue(20/1) is a good value shout, goes well at the track, has a 10lb claimer on board which will help as the ground gets softer, he would have won under this jockey back in Dec if he had cleared the last. Think he will go very close so good luck to those who follow.

[Raoul Duke III]

Very disappointed. Don't know what to think about it.

I think I know the answer. Every time I back one of your fancies, it gets beat. I backed OC at Galway and Leops (flat) and managed to avoid backing it every time it won. Obviously I haven't backed any of the other winners you've tipped up. It's pretty obvious that I am a cooler.

Make me a decent offer and I'll tear up my ante-post bet on OC.

[amberleaf]

are powers still paying 1/4 the odds first 5 in the Imperial Cup,field down to 19 now.Claret Cloak is out so just Cayman Islands left,if powers are still paying 5 places @ 1/4 the odds,would urge people to look at Tominator,could well be a vaseline job with the reduced numbers.

[The Situation]

Well that was damn impressive.

[Dice75]

Good value to be had in the Imperial Cup with 5 place ew.

First Avenue(20/1) is a good value shout, goes well at the track, has a 10lb claimer on board which will help as the ground gets softer, he would have won under this jockey back in Dec if he had cleared the last. Think he will go very close so good luck to those who follow.

Nice call, few bob on ew @ 20/1

[alocon]

Good value to be had in the Imperial Cup with 5 place ew.

First Avenue(20/1) is a good value shout, goes well at the track, has a 10lb claimer on board which will help as the ground gets softer, he would have won under this jockey back in Dec if he had cleared the last. Think he will go very close so good luck to those who follow.

Nice one

[Thefonze]

Delighted it worked out as expected. Free-rolling the rest of the year!

[connie147]

Very disappointed. Don't know what to think about it.

Was there any specific reason for WW's running on Friday. Did she just disappoint ye or was there a problem with her?

[The Situation]

Superb EW value at 6/1 about excellent puck in the next at Wolver.

[Opr]

Superb EW value at 6/1 about excellent puck in the next at Wolver.

That is some gamble on London Bridge in the race!

Opr

[FeetMagic]

Best sweat of the day, cheers for tip.

[Opr]

Very unlucky Sit. Great shout.

Opr

[The Situation]

Incredible scenes, seem to remember this happened a few years back on a big Cheltenham day.

http://www.betdaqtips.com/2013/03/15...-mega-gambles/

[thedini]

That's mad, he hasn't had any horse even placed in 22 attempts on the a.w.

[Thefonze]

Global Power 3.50 Uttoxter, good ew bet. Will like the ground and stay the distance and has come well down in the weights. Good claimer on board also.

[The Situation]

Woolfall Sovereign looks wrongly dismissed by the market in the 14.20 at Lingfield. Toughest race of his career stepping up to listed level but is 4/4 over 5 furlongs and has posted some impressive speed figures that suggest he won't be out of his depth here. Should be about 10/1 imo.

[DeadParrot]

That's mad, he hasn't had any horse even placed in 22 attempts on the a.w.

still doesnt by the looks

[HiCloy]

Incredible scenes, seem to remember this happened a few years back on a big Cheltenham day.

http://www.betdaqtips.com/2013/03/15...-mega-gambles/

They all finished a trailed off last

[White Knight]

Maybe they were told to lay them big and got confused!

[The Situation]

Very odd, cant believe the money was from connections, possibly a bookies induced move to lure in some post Cheltenham drunks who love to latch onto a gamble.

[The Situation]

4.15 @ Ling is a wet dream of a market.

[Guest]

4.15 @ Ling is a wet dream of a market.

No value in fav I take it?? Where do u see the value??

[The Situation]

No value in fav I take it?? Where do u see the value??

Chella Thriller 15/2 has enormous ew value. Race is as "bad ew" from a bookies pov as they come.