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    Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
    My Labour bet on here looks to be in the bag, absent a phenomenal vote-transfer achievement FG -> Lab. Not so sure about having the upside on FF though. They're absolutely shocking.
    No way hitch , the Labour revival starts tonight with Joan's rousing speech to rally the troops. They are currently sitting on stage in cosy chairs having q&a sessions directed by well known socialist Nora Casey.

    Comment


      Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
      FF don't really have any good choices. Defining themselves in opposition to FG doesn't work for them. Defining themselves as potential partners for FG doesn't work either!
      They also need a clean break from the previous governments. Having a leader who was a minister during the whole banking thing is just shooting themselves in the foot.

      Having sons of those who were involved in that whole fiasco up for election is also keeping the banking crisis fresh in the memory for a lot of people.

      They used to be very good at pulling the wool over people's eyes but they've completely lost their way now.
      'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick

      Comment


        Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
        Its eminently sensible. Have a giveaway budget (which they've earned the right to do, in fairness to them); and then sell that dream rather than the cold reality of 'giveaway' meaning an extra fifty in your monthly paycheck come January.
        This was pretty good predictiveness. Shame Enda didn't listen to you.
        "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

        Comment


          The sport that unites Catholic, Protestant and dissenter has had its day of days. Pity anybody who can't enjoy it. Some day. Gerry Thornley 23/3/09

          Comment


            The FF line is 31.5

            I've taken the unders in bets with Hitch and Sitch. Now looking for another angle.

            Anyone want to give me odds on FF under 22.5?
            "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

            Comment


              Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
              The FF line is 31.5

              I've taken the unders in bets with Hitch and Sitch. Now looking for another angle.

              Anyone want to give me odds on FF under 22.5?
              Do you really think that FF will fall that much over the next 4 weeks.
              I think they might get a small bit stronger as they have a strong following who just ran away from them the last time due to the state they left things in,
              I still think a FG minority will be the winner

              Comment


                Originally posted by balfejohn View Post
                Do you really think that FF will fall that much over the next 4 weeks.
                I don't think it's likely but I can foresee events that might lead to it happening. Hence my interest in getting some odds.
                "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                Comment


                  There should be some correlation between the 'overall seats per party' line and the betting in constituencies, i.e. if a party line is 16 seats then we can expect there should be ~16 candidates who are in the Top X in the betting in X seat constituencies.

                  Actual situation.

                  So clearly theres a flaw somewhere.
                  Either
                  a) the flaw is in the party lines meaning the overs on FG is a small bet, overs FF is a huge bet, whilst the Unders on Others is a monster bet.
                  b) the constituencies betting is off in about 10 seats.

                  If we think its A then pile on.
                  If we think its B (sadly more likely imo) then its more difficult. But there must be roughly 5 FF and 3 FG who are trading at the wrong price in relation to an 'Other'.

                  Comment


                    ...
                    "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                    Comment


                      It doesn't completely explain the discrepancy but there are only 157 seats up for grabs. Quite sneaky of PP to have Dun Laoghire down as a 4 seater when Sean Barrett is automatically returned.

                      Edit: Just noticed that Ceann Comharile is included with others.
                      Last edited by horatio1; 31-01-16, 10:15.

                      Comment


                        The betting for the last seat is tight / ridiculous in some constituencies:

                        Tipperary 5 seater , betting for last seat goes 4/9, 8/15, 8/11.
                        Galway east , 4/9 ,8/15, 5/4
                        Cork Sth Central, 1/4, 4/7

                        Where as if you can figure out who will win the last seat in Clare or Dub Sth West its 2/1 and 11/8 the field respectively.

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by horatio1 View Post
                          The betting for the last seat is tight / ridiculous in some constituencies:

                          Tipperary 5 seater , betting for last seat goes 4/9, 8/15, 8/11.
                          Galway east , 4/9 ,8/15, 5/4
                          Cork Sth Central, 1/4, 4/7

                          Where as if you can figure out who will win the last seat in Clare or Dub Sth West its 2/1 and 11/8 the field respectively.
                          Yeah, they are taking the piss. Which is why I set up this thread.

                          Anyone going to give me odds on FF under 22.5?
                          "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                          Comment


                            I'm on FG >47.5 seats @5/6 for a chunk of change and SF <34.5 @4/5 for a smaller chunk.
                            Join the IPB Fantasy Football League 19/20

                            http://www.irishpokerboards.com/foru...88#post1104188

                            Comment


                              I think the most enticing bet is the overs on Labour. I know things are bad for them but I think come election time they can put a case up that they have improved the country while in government and promise the sun, moon and stars and they'll get more votes than the polls are showing and they'll also get huge tranfers from FG I think.
                              'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                Yeah, they are taking the piss. Which is why I set up this thread.

                                Anyone going to give me odds on FF under 22.5?
                                Not me but your potential odds are shortening.Line is 30.5 this morning

                                Originally posted by Iago View Post
                                I'm on FG >47.5 seats @5/6 for a chunk of change and SF <34.5 @4/5 for a smaller chunk.
                                Money in the bank WP. I'm on Enda for next Taoiseach at 4/6 and 4/11. Had a saver on Coveney and Varadker in case of the unlikely scenario where Kenny and Martin stroll off to pensionland and leave the young bucks to do the dirty deed.

                                Comment


                                  Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View Post
                                  There should be some correlation between the 'overall seats per party' line and the betting in constituencies, i.e. if a party line is 16 seats then we can expect there should be ~16 candidates who are in the Top X in the betting in X seat constituencies.

                                  Actual situation.

                                  So clearly theres a flaw somewhere.
                                  Either
                                  a) the flaw is in the party lines meaning the overs on FG is a small bet, overs FF is a huge bet, whilst the Unders on Others is a monster bet.
                                  b) the constituencies betting is off in about 10 seats.

                                  If we think its A then pile on.
                                  If we think its B (sadly more likely imo) then its more difficult. But there must be roughly 5 FF and 3 FG who are trading at the wrong price in relation to an 'Other'.
                                  I'm not sure this means all that much without a proper price analysis. Like from a brief scan the "others" seem to have lots of real certs and then plenty of floaters just outside "X", where's FF have less certs but more that are just making it in X. If you calculate all the individual prices per party as a % of the whole I'd doubt there's any flaw.
                                  Profit before people.

                                  Comment


                                    ...
                                    "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                    Comment


                                      ...
                                      "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                      Comment


                                        Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                        18/1 for FG/Lab/SocDems. (or was when I bet anyway). Given that FG/FF would rather do harikiri than go into gov together and let SF be the main opposition, its surely a matter of whether the SocDem seats (three guaranteed more or less) are needed or not.
                                        Will you provide some juicy FF/FG odds senor?
                                        "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                        Comment


                                          @ RD, if you want to punt FF colapse you could do worse than bet on SF position to be 2nd after election @5/1. Essentially a match bet between FF and SF. Don't see it myself and I doubt they would take much off you though.

                                          Comment


                                            Originally posted by shano1888 View Post
                                            @ RD, if you want to punt FF colapse you could do worse than bet on SF position to be 2nd after election @5/1. Essentially a match bet between FF and SF. Don't see it myself and I doubt they would take much off you though.
                                            I was only just looking at that.

                                            Basically all it needs is FF-4 off their line ans SF +4.

                                            Given that there is a certain overlap in the potential voter base, I think you've identified a great bet there. You'll be able to get on whatever you like in the shops too. Online, no chance.
                                            "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                            Comment


                                              Got some 'tips' from someone who tells me they know about this kind of stuff but I'm posting here before betting.

                                              2 tips: 1) over 10.5 labour seats at evens and 2) lorraine higgins in galway east at 5/1


                                              Just want a simple good bet/bad bet answer if possible
                                              Go big or go homeless.

                                              Comment


                                                Originally posted by mdoug View Post
                                                Got some 'tips' from someone who tells me they know about this kind of stuff but I'm posting here before betting.

                                                2 tips: 1) over 10.5 labour seats at evens and 2) lorraine higgins in galway east at 5/1


                                                Just want a simple good bet/bad bet answer if possible
                                                Imo Bet 1 good , bet 2 bad. If bet 2 comes up then bet 1 should be long odds on.

                                                Comment


                                                  Jesus no on number 2

                                                  Comment


                                                    Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post
                                                    Jesus no on number 2
                                                    Send me your bank details please. That money should have stayed resting in your stack.
                                                    "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                    Comment


                                                      ...
                                                      "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                      Comment


                                                        Backed the FG/L/SD next government
                                                        His rival it seems, had broken his dreams,By stealing the girl of his fancy.Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,But everyone knew her as Nancy.

                                                        Comment


                                                          ...
                                                          "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                          Comment


                                                            Originally posted by elbows View Post
                                                            Backed the FG/L/SD next government
                                                            +1 also added in any others in a separate bet @25/1

                                                            Comment


                                                              Originally posted by 5starpool View Post
                                                              Are there odds for 2 general elections this year? Reasonably likely scenario surely with either a hung Dail and no agreement or else an unlikely unstable one that collapses within 6 months.
                                                              PP have opened a market on " will there be a second election" 1/7 no. 10/3 yes.

                                                              They have also started opening markets on who will top the poll in certain constituencies.

                                                              Comment


                                                                Based on some good local info on this thread and my own deluded notions, I have backed the following outsiders to win a seat;

                                                                Shane Curran Rosc-Gal 4/1
                                                                Katherine Zappone Dub SW 10/3
                                                                Norma Moriarty Kerry 5/1
                                                                Anne Ferris Wicklow 11/4

                                                                I have also lumped on Sean Sherlock @ 8/11. Cork east.

                                                                Comment


                                                                  Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post
                                                                  Gimmie 200 @ 9/2 on Feb so?
                                                                  Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                  100 @ 21/5
                                                                  First bet won of the election campaign - monies shipped to Denny

                                                                  have this awful image of him right now:

                                                                  "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                    First bet won of the election campaign - monies shipped to Denny
                                                                    On the plus side, this just paid for it:

                                                                    Date/Time Selections Bet type Stake Return Status
                                                                    2016-02-03 19:38 Leitrim Traveller @ 8.00
                                                                    Each Way single
                                                                    2 Bets * 50 EUR 100 EUR 520 EUR
                                                                    I'll never say a bad word about Leitrim Travellers again
                                                                    "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      2016 Election Bets

                                                                      having researched a bit on the above, here are a couple of interesting bets

                                                                      FF to get between 34-37 seats bet on over 30.5 seats
                                                                      SF to get between 20-23 seats bet on under 23.5 seats

                                                                      FG to form minority goverment 9/2

                                                                      Singles and multiple bets
                                                                      M McDonogh-Clare 9/4
                                                                      P Buckley-Cork East 6/4
                                                                      T Broughon-Dublin Bay North 11/10
                                                                      A White-Dublin Rathdown 13/8
                                                                      S Holland-Dublin South West 11/8
                                                                      F o Loughlin-Kildare South 13/8
                                                                      K Moran-Long/Westmeath 1/1

                                                                      Hoprfully make a few bob on some of these

                                                                      Thoughts on the above

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        Originally posted by balfejohn View Post
                                                                        having researched a bit on the above, here are a couple of interesting bets

                                                                        FF to get between 34-37 seats bet on over 30.5 seats
                                                                        SF to get between 20-23 seats bet on under 23.5 seats

                                                                        FG to form minority goverment 9/2

                                                                        Singles and multiple bets
                                                                        M McDonogh-Clare 9/4
                                                                        P Buckley-Cork East 6/4
                                                                        T Broughon-Dublin Bay North 11/10
                                                                        A White-Dublin Rathdown 13/8
                                                                        S Holland-Dublin South West 11/8
                                                                        F o Loughlin-Kildare South 13/8
                                                                        K Moran-Long/Westmeath 1/1

                                                                        Hoprfully make a few bob on some of these

                                                                        Thoughts on the above
                                                                        Sarah Holland in Dublin SW is interesting. Current mayor of South Dublin County Council so her profile is high at the min. I'd be worried that she wouldn't have the necessary clout on her own but good vote management with Sean Crowe could help. 11/8 is probably skinny enough though imo.

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          Originally posted by balfejohn View Post
                                                                          having researched a bit on the above, here are a couple of interesting bets

                                                                          FF to get between 34-37 seats bet on over 30.5 seats
                                                                          SF to get between 20-23 seats bet on under 23.5 seats

                                                                          FG to form minority goverment 9/2

                                                                          Singles and multiple bets
                                                                          M McDonogh-Clare 9/4
                                                                          P Buckley-Cork East 6/4
                                                                          T Broughon-Dublin Bay North 11/10
                                                                          A White-Dublin Rathdown 13/8
                                                                          S Holland-Dublin South West 11/8
                                                                          F o Loughlin-Kildare South 13/8
                                                                          K Moran-Long/Westmeath 1/1

                                                                          Hoprfully make a few bob on some of these

                                                                          Thoughts on the above
                                                                          Moran will poll well in Athlone but I think he will struggle to pick up anything in the rest of the constituency, no FF runner in Athlone should help him, think McFadden will just pip him but he has a decent chance.

                                                                          Don't think there are 2 SF seats in DSW so wouldn't bet on Holland but a lot of pundits including Yates on Newstalk and Irish Times are predicting she will.

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            Originally posted by balfejohn View Post
                                                                            having researched a bit on the above, here are a couple of interesting bets

                                                                            FF to get between 34-37 seats bet on over 30.5 seats
                                                                            SF to get between 20-23 seats bet on under 23.5 seats

                                                                            FG to form minority goverment 9/2

                                                                            Singles and multiple bets
                                                                            M McDonogh-Clare 9/4
                                                                            P Buckley-Cork East 6/4
                                                                            T Broughon-Dublin Bay North 11/10
                                                                            A White-Dublin Rathdown 13/8
                                                                            S Holland-Dublin South West 11/8
                                                                            F o Loughlin-Kildare South 13/8
                                                                            K Moran-Long/Westmeath 1/1

                                                                            Hoprfully make a few bob on some of these

                                                                            Thoughts on the above
                                                                            Can you do multiples on those? Had it in my head that you couldn't.

                                                                            Comment


                                                                              Originally posted by shano1888 View Post
                                                                              Can you do multiples on those? Had it in my head that you couldn't.
                                                                              Looks like singles only, been on some sites and they only offer the singles bet.
                                                                              Sorry for that

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                Originally posted by BigDeal View Post
                                                                                Moran will poll well in Athlone but I think he will struggle to pick up anything in the rest of the constituency, no FF runner in Athlone should help him, think McFadden will just pip him but he has a decent chance.

                                                                                Don't think there are 2 SF seats in DSW so wouldn't bet on Holland but a lot of pundits including Yates on Newstalk and Irish Times are predicting she will.
                                                                                Moran got a lot of good coverage during the floods still fresh in peoples minds down in the whole area, it might carry him thru

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  The FF line starting to creep out a little. 32.5 now.
                                                                                  Profit before people.

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    Anyone want to do a sweep?

                                                                                    Correctly predict no of seats for:
                                                                                    FG
                                                                                    FF
                                                                                    LAB
                                                                                    SF
                                                                                    RENUA
                                                                                    SD
                                                                                    AAAPBP
                                                                                    OTHERS

                                                                                    thank post and if we get enough interest, I'll set it up. Suggest entry fees too.plz, I am OK with it being nominal or a bit more substantive.
                                                                                    "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                      Originally posted by The Situation View Post
                                                                                      The FF line starting to creep out a little. 32.5 now.
                                                                                      On the back of one good poll. I expect them to slip back again once the campaign gets better defined.
                                                                                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                        Are you going to organise the 'predict every seat in every constituency' thing again? It was a bit mental but fun as well.

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                          Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View Post
                                                                                          Are you going to organise the 'predict every seat in every constituency' thing again? It was a bit mental but fun as well.
                                                                                          Think we ended up with 3 runners! So no.
                                                                                          "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                            Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                            Anyone want to do a sweep?

                                                                                            Correctly predict no of seats for:
                                                                                            FG
                                                                                            FF
                                                                                            LAB
                                                                                            SF
                                                                                            RENUA
                                                                                            SD
                                                                                            AAAPBP
                                                                                            OTHERS

                                                                                            thank post and if we get enough interest, I'll set it up. Suggest entry fees too.plz, I am OK with it being nominal or a bit more substantive.
                                                                                            Definitely in I was thinking of posting it myself, something along the lines of everyone starting with 100 pts and you are deducted 1 pt for every seat you are away from each groups total? Maybe a graduated bonus system for getting one exactly right.

                                                                                            In for €20 - €50.

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                              Originally posted by horatio1 View Post
                                                                                              Definitely in I was thinking of posting it myself, something along the lines of everyone starting with 100 pts and you are deducted 1 pt for every seat you are away from each groups total? Maybe a graduated bonus system for getting one exactly right.

                                                                                              In for €20 - €50.
                                                                                              Sounds like a plan. Thanks for volunteering!
                                                                                              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                ...
                                                                                                "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                  ...
                                                                                                  "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                    ...
                                                                                                    "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                      Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                                      Sounds like a plan. Thanks for volunteering!
                                                                                                      Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                                                                      How about instead:

                                                                                                      Pick 10 candidates who are evens or higher odds [I'll screen capture the odds from PP]. You then get points for whether or how close they are to being elected. So e.g. scoring might look like:

                                                                                                      10 points [elected as TD]
                                                                                                      5 points [first outside of elected TDs]
                                                                                                      2 points [second outside of elected TDs]

                                                                                                      Maybe those scores need to be tweaked a bit.

                                                                                                      All selections due in by X time this Sunday. €50 a pop or so, or whatever works best.
                                                                                                      Le frog Nouveau has gazzumped me!

                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                        Originally posted by horatio1 View Post
                                                                                                        Le frog Nouveau has gazzumped me!
                                                                                                        Indeed. Come on HH, earn your stripes!
                                                                                                        "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                          ...
                                                                                                          "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                                            Not sure I sure PP's bullishness about Lucy @ 1/7. Weak field though I suppose.

                                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                                              Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                                                                              Well I did run Pointless Sheep so well
                                                                                                              An excellent point. Forget it.
                                                                                                              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                                ...
                                                                                                                "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                                  prediction comp lobbed up - all of Hitch's suggestions were carefully considered and ignored
                                                                                                                  "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                                    Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                                                                                    There needs though to be a reward for breaking from the pack. E.g. we know the best estimates are probably the PaddyPower estimates. So what is the incentive with making big guesses outside of this range?
                                                                                                                    the one thing that is for sure is that PP will not predict the election result correctly

                                                                                                                    and neither will I on my current form
                                                                                                                    "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                                      Originally posted by shano1888 View Post
                                                                                                                      @ RD, if you want to punt FF colapse you could do worse than bet on SF position to be 2nd after election @5/1. Essentially a match bet between FF and SF. Don't see it myself and I doubt they would take much off you though.
                                                                                                                      6/1 now on the back of a decent poll for FF
                                                                                                                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                                        Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                                                        6/1 now on the back of a decent poll for FF
                                                                                                                        I recommended it for you as you were looking for a FF angle. I wouldn't back it at 16s tbh.

                                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                                          Originally posted by shano1888 View Post
                                                                                                                          I recommended it for you as you were looking for a FF angle. I wouldn't back it at 16s tbh.
                                                                                                                          wouldn't take an extraordinary swing

                                                                                                                          do you want to give me 16s?
                                                                                                                          "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                                          Comment

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