Cheltenham Festival 2013

[mcnugget]

Sorry deleted post as I seen you said three at the end of the last post. I hate aftertiming but I also backed His Excellency at 80's for three places before the declarations. Couldn't quite believe it when he was running on at the end as he look dead half way through the race.

Opr

Yeah wasn't going to mention it but the mention of Somersby just reminded me. It really is a sickener the Arkle/QM went to 7 runners or today could have been unreal thievery.

[eamonhonda]

for me tomorrow:

2:05 Pont Alexandre
2:40 Unioniste
4:00 Owega Star e/w

some crazy 2 euro accum to even out the account,will revisit if it becomes a sweat

[conspicuous]

Jaysis just watched Jetski eating that last hurdle again. Think it made the difference!!

I was on Jetski too but to be honest I think we would have lost anyway as Champagne Fever finished so well. That's what I'm telling myself anyway, it helps ease the pain

[Opr]

Yeah wasn't going to mention it but the mention of Somersby just reminded me. It really is a sickener the Arkle/QM went to 7 runners or today could have been unreal thievery.

Yeah mad with myself that I didn't back a couple of them e/w on the basis that it had every chance of being a 7 runner race. I even read the analysis Channing did of the race prior to the declarations and still didn't back anything despite him advising it strongly. fwiw he's with you on Somersby and also recommended Mail De Bievre at the time while being quite cool on the rest of the field.

Opr

[onenutmaster]

Just wondering what the catch is really.

I presume I can't deposit 200, get my 100 bonus.
Put it on Sprinter Sacre at 1/4 and then withdraw 325 if he wins.
But also withdraw my original 200 if he loses.

as far as i am aware i think the whole balance has to be rolled over at least once before the bonus cash can be with drawn. so if u place only the 100 on a bet and it wins that 100 bonus will still be unwithdrawable until u place 200 euros worth of bets . im not sure if there is minimum odds link to this i had the t and c in front of me today but my brain is a bit allover the place at the moment if you ring dial abet we did receive emails telling us the t and c so the agent should be able to tell ya. regarding customer services not knowing about the t and c they should of asked a supervisor. and if he didnt know he should of contacted the person in charge of this offer i do apologise about that.

[onenutmaster]

Breezing through the Racing Post this morning, I spotted a 2 page add from PP advertising 5/1 on Hurricane Fly for new phone customers (to a max of €50). I never had a phone betting account as I didnt really want it as i thought it would just be too easy to be sucked in having bets on everything and anything. (at least before I place bets online Im prepared to do some bit of study first).

So I ring up and tell the girl Id like to open a telephone betting account. She asked me had I used a telephone betting account with them before, "no", says I, "never bet over the phone before". Have you an online account with us, asks she. "Well, yes I have" says I. Ah, says she, thats the same thing, its the same account, so you can not place the bet.

I explain that is not what the advertisment in the paper says. It specifically says open a new phone betting account. I asked her why they didnt say phone/online if thats what they meant, but she just kept repeating that the account is the same.

So now all of a sudden, my wife, my 2 daughters and my future son-in-law are all the proud owners of spanking new PP telephone betting accounts. I must ring that girl back in the morning and thank her for her help!!

Roll on day 2.

As long as they opened the accounts themselves connie with cards in their name and they dont have paddy power accounts there is nothing wrong with this. just to make sure a point that is clear once u open a paddy power account online that account is open to use all methods of interacting with paddy power. so effectively you are creating a phone account at the same time as creating an online account.

[Mellor]

HF saves the day for irrelevant profit
On we trot

[Pat Mustard]

Had a nice bet on HF. HF, quevaga enhanced double too. The rest let me down. But a fair 1st day. Back in focus is my ideaof a good thing. Will be having a good punt on him tomorrow. Also think patrick mullins will win the bumper with a bit of luck on union dues..really like his win.in naas

[Percy007]

Good day yesterday, today all hinges on Abbey Lane for me.

[careca]

Little piece in Sunday Times where Nicholls said that he put Saphir Du Rheu (Fred Winter) away after he won his last race to keep his handicap mark for this one. 6/1 fav in a tricky race but def worth keeping on the right side of.

[TheImprover]

Tofino bay
Pont Alexandre
Unioniste
Sprinter sacre
Black Thunder

[Merle]

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-rac...m/14:05/winner

Hills giving 2/1 on Pont Alexandre, can be layed at about 6/4 on BF.

Won't accept a huge stake though, max I could get on was 25.

[bohsman]

All about Ponte Alexandre and Sprinter Sacre for me today.

[kpnuts]

Thought I'd get the ball rolling as we're just a week from the off now. Here's my stable:

Tuesday
Supreme Novices: My Tent Or Yours e/w @ 10/1 (love this one, obv).
Arkle: Simonsig @ 8/11 NRNB.
Champion Hurdle: Grandouet 7/1.
Cross Country: Chicago Grey e/w @ 14s, rerouted to Aintree but did this one NR Free Bet with BetVictor so no loss there.
Mares: Une Artiste e/w @ 7/1; also e/w @ 4/1 without Quevega.

Tremendous Day 1's racing, if not riches. Came out slightly ahead thanks to Simonsig and Hills' offer on the SupNov. Backed half the field e/w 1-2-3-4-5 1/4 yesterday morning and hit the 1st, 3rd and 5th as well as MTOY antepost placing 2nd @ 10s. Watched all the day's action in Cassidy's on Camden Street, where atmosphere was electric. Lots of tellys, big screens, free finger food, free €1 placepot with Boyles next door, creamy pints, superb.

"Dirty" antepost multiples all killed by Overturn & Une Artiste yesterday. Today is mostly about Pont Alex, Pendra & Bordoni. Subbed in The Liquidator @ 25/1 for my Bumper non-runners, added Goulanes @ 7s, Minsk e/w @ 40s in the Neptune & Owega Star e/w @ 50s Coral Cup to my stable.

GL all!

[Emmet]

Everyone opening new Coral accounts for their parents etc?

Sprinter Sacre at evens instead of the 1/3 best price elsewhere (max bet £20)

http://sports.coral.co.uk/

[mcnugget]

Pont is ridic short and probably getting shorter, serious lay at the price imo.

Back In Focus and Terminal two nice winners for me today.

[KevIRL]

Oú est le bauld GAB?

We still believe!

[The Situation]

Bad betting card today imo, Taquin Du Seuil ew in the Neptune my only bet.

Bookies will reclaim any loses yesterday and some today.

Edit: Richard Hughes seems to be sweet on his dads horse in the RSA, sure we'll add that for the gamboool.

[Dice75]

Bad betting card today imo, Taquin Du Seuil ew in the Neptune my only bet.

Bookies will reclaim any loses yesterday and some today.

Edit: Richard Hughes seems to be sweet on his dads horse in the RSA, sure we'll add that for the gamboool.

Never really a fan of Cheltenham Wednesday, keep it smallball.

[RBBlogger]

Here's my selections for Day 2, also posted on my blog www.rakeback-blogger.com . I would have made 1 point yesterday if I actually stuck to my own staking plan but got carried away with bookmaker silly bonuses!! Good luck everyone..

R1 – John Oaksey Novice Chase

There are two horses which stand out for me here but no real suprises. Back in Focus and Buddy Bolero. Back in Focus is the proven class horse of the race and also on the up and Buddy Bolero is also on the up but has to prove he is a class act. So I will be putting a nice bet on the Former and possibly a save bet on the latter. 2 points win Back in Focus, 1/2 point win Buddy Bolero

R2 – Neptune

This race is between Point Alexander, Taquin Du Seuil and Chatterbox. I also rate them in this order. I will discount Taquin as according to Barry Geraghty who rode him previously said that he is more a chaser than a hurdler and more importantly all Challow Hurdle winners have an abysmal record (0-13) in this race. Chatterbox will give Point the most trouble but Points more experience in graded races will stand to him and this should be another win for Ruby and Mullins. 3 points win Point Alexander

R3 – RSA Chase

My shortlist is Unioniste, Boston Bob & Goulanes but I am discounting Goulanes as his inexperience will possibly cause him to make a mistake that he will not recover from in a race of this caliber. Unioniste’s form has been franked by the win of Golden Chieftain yesterday and I think Boston Bob ticks all the boxes to win this. I am undecided between the fist two so I will be backing both to win. 2 points win on Unioniste & Boston Bob.

R4 – Queen Mother Champion Chase

Sit back and watch Sprinter Sacre win

R5 – Coral Cup

Two that stand out with great chance are Pendra and Abbey Lane. Both improving and carrying a decent low weight which fits the trends. Prices are pretty low for these two in such a competitive race but If you want a winner then back 1/2 point each way on these two .
I also like the look of Barbatos if someone wants to have a another 1/2 point e/w bet on it and get some decent value using PP payout on first five then I wouldn’t stop them.

R6 – Fred Winter

Its very hard to have an opinion here in this race, so I will put up Henderson horse Megalypos 1/2 point each way as Henderson was Fred Winters first assistant when he started in racing and he has alwasy stated he wants to win this race. Also Barry Geraghty confirmed in his blog today that he has a great chance with this horse.

R7 – Champion Bumper

I don’t have a great record in this race but the horse that stands out on form is Union Dues, back 1/2 point e/w. He has won in Navan so should handle Cheltenham pretty well, is a mullins horse and has ran at least two races and won both which ticks a few trends boxes.

[Opr]

That text bet offer on SS for even money by Paddypower was actually a max of 35 not 20 at evens. If you have already done 20 just text again and they will give the other 15.

Opr

[shrapnel]

That text bet offer on SS for even money by Paddypower was actually a max of 35 not 20 at evens. If you have already done 20 just text again and they will give the other 15.

Opr

how do you do this? Must ve missed the post.

[Strewelpeter]

I was wondering where the price had gone for my hope for the coral,ovega star, then I heard GAB call it on these podcast. like him I worry about the jockey, was hoping that Butler who would take a few pounds off.
Also on Lyreen antepost but I'm getting kind of soft on him.

I've been strong on Liz Doyle's in the bumper , to me it looks a class above anything else I've seen this year. IMO if it was with Mullins it would be no more than 7/4.

[Megatron]

Channings analysis of the first race.

Link to site

People that know me well will tell you that I'm a risk-taker who is not afraid to push his luck when things are going well. Yesterday was a pretty good day for followers of my selections here. We only got the one winner, but I think we had some great value bets and we got a few big prices in the frame. If either of our 2nd places had won we'd have had an amazing day. You would probably think I'll now be spinning it up and smashing into a load of 50/1 shots today.

I have checked the numbers from time to time and a whole load of people have signed up to Betting Emporium. It's great to have you with us, but I have to say I am slightly worried that you may be thinking we can have 66/1 and 33/1 chances that go close to winning in every race.I can tell you now, it won't always be that easy and that may turn out to be the best day of the four by a mile. One thing is for sure, the bookmakers like to put all their best offers out on day one to get people betting and to encourage brand loyalty throughout the meeting. The offers today are not so much fun and the card looks tough. My plan is to just carry on, using the methods I always use and hope that the profits take care of themselves.

Having got all that off my chest the first thing to say about today's racing is that it will be run on good ground. That egomaniac clerk of the course got plenty of air-time yesterday, and told us all about the wind chill and how that was going to effect the ground, (how does that work?). He still didn't manage to do what we need him for - tell us accurately what the going is.

All the stuff in the papers about "will like ground" and "won't be suited by conditions" are based on soft ground. You have to turn that stuff upside down and that may not have been correctly taken into account by the market.

Anyway - to the first race. It's a 16-runner novice chase which means we get 1/4 1,2,3. That is better than a 16-runner novice chase on a quiet Wednesday, (if they ever had such things), but the concession of getting a quarter does not do enough to make each-way betting attractive and advantageous to us.

I know there will be people reading this who go off and totally ignore me, but I do implore you to bet win only if you are playing in this one. I know it's frustrating to back a decent priced horse win-only and watch it come 2nd. We are not worried about that though. Our only concern should be to make a profit and that means playing in the way that offers us a long-term advantage.

The big question on most horses in this one is the trip. As we don't really know which ones will stay and which ones won't and many have most of their form on soft ground, it is really tough to be dogmatic on this one. I went through this race with a magnifying glass and I concluded that it's too tough to go mad in.

It wouldn't surprise me if Back in Focus won and I wouldn't want to lay 3/1.

I'm not a fan of Buddy Bolero which has been going right-handed and has a lot to prove to me.

I think Godsmejudge and Hawkes Point are slow old plodders which I can't really have on this ground.

I considered Tofino Bay, Rival D'Estruval and Emperor's Choice and if you are backing any of them I wouldn't put you off.

This will be one of the week's quietest races for me, but I will tell you about every bet I have this week and I have bet on the Pricewise horse.



I have had 1pt win on Rose of the Moon on Betfair at 17.0 (16/1).

[Raoul Duke III]

I've been strong on Liz Doyle's in the bumper , to me it looks a class above anything else I've seen this year. IMO if it was with Mullins it would be no more than 7/4.

4 y\olds have a very poor record in the race. Don't like it at all. I will be highly original and back Mr PW Mullins, riding for Mr WP Mullins.

[Opr]

how do you do this? Must ve missed the post.

Text the following to 51465 - XX ENHANCED SS (Make sure you have number sending text from registered in contact section on PP account.)

-> Put your stake (up to €35) in the XX part; thus if you want €35 on it; it'd be "35 ENHANCED SS". You must have the funds to cover it in your account.

You can also get another 20 at even with WH.

Opr

[Raoul Duke III]

Pont is ridic short and probably getting shorter, serious lay at the price imo.

Getting smashed into 5/4 now. Can't back any horse at Cheltenham at that price. Going for Rule the World e\w. Mouse has a decent Cheltenham record.

[SatNav]

phone call from Tipperary this morning.


"michelle there is a horse called Our Conor running on Friday, make sure and back it , its dead cert"

Me " ah yeah shur a friend of mine owns that horse, thats old news "

also gave Bobs Worth!

so the double better come in lol

[amberleaf]

first of my ante-post bets is out today with Golantilla in the bumper,took the 20/1 about him after he won in mallow at the start of the year,10/1 and drifting now but got it in good and come what may.

six races yesterday with the favs filling the first two places in five of them,reckon bookie heaven will kick in to day so value punting is where i'm of to

in the first going with Godsmejudge @ 7/1 e/w,not the biggest price in the world but seems to have a realistic chance of winning this and with 4 places @ 1/4 the odds will do me fine for a score each way,also stuck a tenner e/w on Drawn N Drank @ 50/1 in case history will be made

in the Coral Cup,taking 3 against the field each way with bookies paying 5 places @ 1/4 the odds,Owega Star @ 33/1,abbey lane @ 8/1 & mr watson @ 20/1 for a score e/w on each

good luck all

[eagle eye]

I had no bets yesterday, just couldn't decide if I wanted to steam in on HF but in the end I decided not to.

I am having one bet today and its Bondage ew in the Coral Cup. He has course form with a win last October and a very good second here in a grade 2 novice hurdle in November. Paul Carberry takes the ride and his record riding for Elliot in the UK is very impressive.

[amberleaf]

first of my ante-post bets is out today with Golantilla in the bumper,took the 20/1 about him after he won in mallow at the start of the year,10/1 and drifting now but got it in good and come what may.

six races yesterday with the favs filling the first two places in five of them,reckon bookie heaven will kick in to day so value punting is where i'm of to

in the first going with Godsmejudge @ 7/1 e/w,not the biggest price in the world but seems to have a realistic chance of winning this and with 4 places @ 1/4 the odds will do me fine for a score each way,also stuck a tenner e/w on Drawn N Drank @ 50/1 in case history will be made

in the Coral Cup,taking 3 against the field each way with bookies paying 5 places @ 1/4 the odds,Owega Star @ 33/1,abbey lane @ 8/1 & mr watson @ 20/1 for a score e/w on each

good luck all

taking 2 against the field in the fred winter with Ruacana @ 20/1 & Zamdy Man @ 33/1 for a tenner each way,just the first four in the place market,a good run from from ruacana would be a boost for oc on friday and given the time stats (+13 seconds in a grade 1)wouldnt be the biggest surprise in the world,this being a grade 3 even if it is a hot one.

[Emmet]

Text the following to 51465 - XX ENHANCED SS (Make sure you have number sending text from registered in contact section on PP account.)

-> Put your stake (up to €35) in the XX part; thus if you want €35 on it; it'd be "35 ENHANCED SS". You must have the funds to cover it in your account.

You can also get another 20 at even with WH.

Opr

where's this?

Have some Coral too

[Charlie Harper]

paddy power shops are 7/4 on pont alexandre and 9/4 doubled with ss

[Opr]

where's this?

Have some Coral too

Sorry did it a few days ago, thought it was with WH but with Coral also.

Opr

[connie147]

paddy power shops are 7/4 on pont alexandre and 9/4 doubled with ss

Double is enhanced to 5/2 in PP shops at the moment.

[mcnugget]

paddy power shops are 7/4 on pont alexandre and 9/4 doubled with ss

They pushed the double out to 5/2 (3.06 BF) for a while. 7/2 Back in Focus for a half hour this morning too. I'm getting dizzy from going around to their shops again and again.

[DeadParrot]

All about Ponte Alexandre and Sprinter Sacre for me today.

SS is 3/10 and pretty much unbackable unless you have an enchanced bet. (thanks opr, though max is now €20)
Sizing Europe @ 6/1 offs decent enough value imo

for moi today
Abbey Lane
Rose of the Moon
Pont Alexandre
and Sizing Europe.

[bohsman]

SS is 3/10 and pretty much unbackable unless you have an enchanced bet. (thanks opr, though max is now €20)

Yea, haven't gotten on the evens but my addiction to PowerPlays sees me with a few accumulators waiting on SS.

[Merle]

How good is this priority price?

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en...8515/3:20.html

2/1 Sprinter Sacre wins Champion Chase by 10 or more lengths.

[Opr]

It's a 5/4, 6/5 shot elsewhere.

Opr

[Merle]

It's a 5/4, 6/5 shot elsewhere.

Opr

What kind of overround would they have on those markets though? Any idea on the EV?

Sorry, know nothing about racing and just getting into it at the moment.

[Opr]

I've no idea but you can bet the under with Sportingbet at 6/4. How much is the max bet with Hills on those priority prices?

Opr

[Merle]

I've no idea but you can bet the under with Sportingbet at 6/4. How much is the max bet with Hills on those priority prices?

Opr

Generally €20, sometimes only €10.

[The Situation]

Throwing this out there, I kinda missed John Mccririck yesterday. It's not like the new team are so amazingly insightful (not by a far stretch) that they can justify dumping him.

[NewApproach]

Tough card today. In brief:

R1 - Taking on Back in Focus. Looks like he will be going off 2/1 which is very short. Rose of the Moon looks a big price at 16/1.

R2 - This is all about getting Pont Alexandre beaten. He is hilariously short and will possibly go shorter yet. Any of the next 5 are potential winners and could run to 155+. Two Rockers will be carrying some of my money at 20/1 ew.

R3 - Poor race. Unioniste will be hard to beat. None of the Irish inspire much confidence. The Real Milan looks a big price to me, despite question marks over the form of the stable.

R4 - Sprinter Sacre will win and if he gets any bigger I will have to back him. I'll be taking on Mail Du Bevre in the without SS and place markets. Somersby should outrun his price.

R5 - Extremely competitive and I haven't put any time into going through it to end up with a shortlist of 12. I'll happily listen to the suggestions of others in this.

R6 - I've backed a cople of rags win only - Flaxen Flare, Habesh, Ibsen. Small stakes.

R7 - If the ground looks like being soft I'd back Vieux Lion Rouge. His form seems to be underestimated and is a backable price. I've no strong opinions though and will be another race for small stakes.

[thedini]

Throwing this out there, I kinda missed John Mccririck yesterday. It's not like the new team are so amazingly insightful (not by a far stretch) that they can justify dumping him.

he was rushed to hospital yesterday.

[NewApproach]

Throwing this out there, I kinda missed John Mccririck yesterday. It's not like the new team are so amazingly insightful (not by a far stretch) that they can justify dumping him.

This. He was my favourite on the old C4Racing. They have a very bland team without him.

[The Situation]

he was rushed to hospital yesterday.

I know, prob just disillusioned at being dropped from the team.

[eagle eye]

I'd love to lump on Back in Focus in the first but I just don't trust his jumping enough to back him on this track.

[The C Kid]

Nice to see Derek O'Connor get featured on C4 there.

Expect him to have a winner tomorrow with Super Duty.

[KevIRL]

PP enhanced Unioniste/SS double 5/1

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/powerplay/cheltenham-countdown-specials?ev_oc_grp_ids=1188619

[Emmet]

not very enhanced! Available widely @ 5.85 - 5.6

[KevIRL]

PP FB enhanced Pont Alexandre 2/1

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelty-betting/facebook-enhanced-specials/horse-racing-enhanced-special?ev_oc_grp_ids=719843&AFF_ID=16561

[Opr]

That double with PP Kev currently works out at just very slightly under 5/1 normally. (7/2 and 3/10)

Opr

[eagle eye]

That was a great ride by young Mullins. His jumping did let him down but he still got it done.

[The Situation]

Very poor jump from Rival D when looking the winner. Exciting race.

[DeadParrot]

Back In Focus 1st
Tofino Bay 2nd
Godsmejudge 3rd

[ONE TIME]

That was a great ride by young Mullins. His jumping did let him down but he still got it done.

That horse won despite the jockey

[Emmet]

PP FB enhanced Pont Alexandre 2/1

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/novelt...3&AFF_ID=16561

gone, merci

Keep at it!

[pokerhand]

Not a bad festival for me, 3 bets with two win only and one small ew on long shot. The win only bets won and the ew came nowhere. I am no longer playing the ew market, waste of money. I will only have two more bets, one on Long Run (crazy good odds given his class) and one on Our Conor as a nod to GAB