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    The Classics

    English 2000 Guineas; 1000 Guineas; Oaks; Derby.

    Now that the horrible jumps racing is fading away it is time for real racing. These races date back to 1779.

    What I like about these races:
    all horses carry the same weight
    they are for 3yo horses but at this time of year we only have their form last year as 2yos
    there is an antepost market so you can bet months in advance of the race
    the races are run at a high pace and every horse is trying
    form and pedigree are important.

    I like to do a little antepost accumulator while waiting to have my major bets (usually a week before each race after the last declaration stage).

    Choices:
    2000 Guineas: Canford Cliffs 5/1
    1000 Guineas: Lady Of The Desert 16/1
    Oaks: Hibaayeb 20/1
    Derby: Joshua Tree 33/1

    A massive €4 win accumulator; six €5 doubles; four €9 trebles = €70. And a small bet of about €25 on Joshua Tree at 50s on Betfair because that is all that is available at the moment.

    Why such small bets? They are with Paddy Power who have a €200k payout limit. The €4 accumulator would pay €291,312 if successful. It is a bit like buying a lottery ticket in a €15 million lottery. But in 2006 I did a €20 win accumulator and had 3 winners from 4 - if I got 4 it was €66k. That year I won €7k on the Derby. In earlier years I had winners at 16/1; 16/1; 25/1; 12/1; a 16/1 double Oaks/Derby and others at smaller prices. One year I won £490 for £2 by picking the Derby 1,2,3 in the correct order.

    OK, I'll probably have egg on my face in a few months having picked four losers.

    #2
    St Nicholas Abbey has already won the derby imo.

    Comment


      #3
      Its far too early to make any type of educated guess on the Derby, Guineas or Oaks. We have to see if these horses have come on from 2 to 3.

      One horse I will be watching out for is Workforce, only one run last season but hugely impressive and has been added to the Derby field.
      'Mental Toughness is doing the right thing for the team when it's not the best thing for you' - Bill Belichick

      Comment


        #4
        Very funny you should mention this as only yesterday I had my biggest/ very rare antipost bet( never bet antipost) in the 2000 guineas this year.

        Couldn't believe Hearts of fire was 25's for this. Sick value. He's arguably one of the form horses in the race but the market does not suggest this. He won Italy's biggest group 1 last year, and the form more than stood up because Vale of York who was second in said race won a Breeders Cup juvenile race next time out. He's also won on very varying grounds and seems compfortable on both soft and good. I'm excited!
        Profit before people.

        Comment


          #5
          I have done very well out of antepost betting, including having New Approach @ 33s for both classics and George Washington @25s, and I have come to realise that in the long run the bookies have a greater edge in this than the day market for the same race. I'd would still lay horses antepost sometimes, and I think Canford Cliffs is a lay in the Guineas tbh.

          I should say that I am talking about long range antepost when I say I realise it's not value, a week or 2 in advance in sound obv

          Comment


            #6
            The surest way to make money antepost imo is to place lay horses in the Epsom Derby.

            You need -
            To have a few grand available to risk.
            Be able to identify low priced horses that are unlikely to stay 12f. (You need to be a pedigree expert).
            You should lay at least three horses, more if you can find good candidates. Only three can place so if you lay seven you are guaranteed to collect on four minimum.

            The problem is that although this is the biggest antepost place market, it is still a small market. It does get more liquid in the few days before the race. With luck as the race approaches horses you have laid will be withdrawn, and you collect on them.

            Comment


              #7
              Have you heard anything about Joshua Tree?

              O'Brien didn't even mention him in an update on nearly all this horses this week.

              Comment


                #8
                Jan Vermeer for the Derby as my only flat bet, 2/1 Abbey is a joke, should be that to run in the race, suspicion it will stick to a mile.

                Rip Van Winkle to win everything it runs in.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by The C Kid View Post
                  Have you heard anything about Joshua Tree?
                  O'Brien didn't even mention him in an update on nearly all this horses this week.
                  I have no contacts, and even if I heard something I would ignore it. Any information you get won't be any good. Why would someone on the inside tell anyone anything?

                  In the Racing Post Weekender 11/04/10 Nick Mordin says "I've been able to use this information (www2.france-galop.com race entries) to uncover an interesting fact that seems to provide an early jump on the three-year-olds O'Brien believes to be Derby contenders."
                  "All you have to do is look for those O'Brien enters for the three big middle-distance colts' Classic trials in France - Prix Noailles, Prix Greffulhe and Prix Hocquart. Entries for these three races have to be made really early, and when O'Brien enters a colt for all three which won a Group 1 race at two or races three times or fewer times and earned a Racing Post Rating higher than 100 you should sit up and take notice."
                  "Six of the ten three-year-olds that have won Group 1 races for O'Brien at 1m4f or further matched this profile. This year only two O'Brien colts match the profile: Don Carlos and Joshua Tree."


                  The only reason I buy the Racing Post Weekender (€3.90) during the flat season is to read the Nick Mordin article. In 1992 in the edition the week before the English Derby he said of the 19 runners only 5 could win (one of the 5 was later withdrawn). I studied the form of the four qualifiers and won £3,500 on Dr Devious (12/1), whose sire was the sprinter Ahonoora and many thought Dr Devious would not last 12f.

                  I use the Australian pedigree program TesioPower to input all the Derby and Oaks contenders (did this months ago). I then assess which of the main contenders might be suited by middle distances (12f) and which might struggle to last. In the early 1990s about a third of Derby horses had no chance of lasting the distance. Now the trainers are better informed and seldom run non-stayers.

                  Interestingly my only other bet on the 2010 Derby [Ameer 85 €17.83 €1,497.72 - bet placed 7th Oct 2009] ran today at Newmarket and was 2nd beaten a head in a 1m2f race (3rd 6 lengths back).
                  £250000 Tattersalls Timeform 3-Y-O Trophy (Class 2) (3yo) 1m2f Good
                  £135,425.00, £55,400.00, £24,650.00, £12,300.00, £6,150.00, £2,450.00
                  2 1 hd Ameer (IRE) 7/1 3 9-3 Saeed Bin Suroor 100 * *
                  b c Monsun (GER) - Ailette (Second Set) Frankie Dettori
                  Held up in centre group, joined far side 6f out, headway over 2f out, led and hung right over 1f out, soon ridden, headed post (op 6-1 tchd 15-2)


                  Ameer has interesting features (to me anyway) in his pedigree that are seldom seen.

                  I bet you wished you had never asked me a question.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    The antepost fav for the oaks (Timepiece/Henry Cecil) made her seasonal reappearance today in the felden stakes at Newmarket and ultimately disappointed having drifted alarmingly from 11/8 to 2/1 in the market. Timepiece travelled sweetly, was denied a clear run and did'nt find much after. The winner Rumoush/M,Tregononing is now 10/1 jt fav with Timepiece for Epsom but I would expect Timepiece to turn the tables in a few months time as that wily old campaigner Cecil has left a bit to work on. This one will stay the trip and there is a good bit left in the tank after today.
                    "Let your boat of life be light, packed with only what you need - a homely home and simple pleasures, one or two friends, worth the name, someone to love and someone to love you, a cat, a dog, and a pipe or two, enough to eat and enough to wear, and a little more than enough to drink; for thirst is a dangerous thing." Jerome K. Jerome Three men in a Boat

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by loose cannon View Post
                      The antepost fav for the oaks (Timepiece/Henry Cecil) made her seasonal reappearance today in the felden stakes at Newmarket and ultimately disappointed having drifted alarmingly from 11/8 to 2/1 in the market. Timepiece travelled sweetly, was denied a clear run and did'nt find much after. The winner Rumoush/M,Tregononing is now 10/1 jt fav with Timepiece for Epsom but I would expect Timepiece to turn the tables in a few months time as that wily old campaigner Cecil has left a bit to work on. This one will stay the trip and there is a good bit left in the tank after today.
                      I wasn't impressed with Timepiece, she was unable to quicken when really needing too, and looks to need a good bit of cut. Today's ground was only g/f and it looked far too fast.

                      The winner done it very well I thought, she really quickened when she needed to. I would be very surprised however if she got the trip in the Oaks, 10f should be fine on pedigree but 12f is a big question mark. I see no reason why they wouldn't give the 1000 Guineas a shot, she certainly didn't seem short of pace today

                      Comment


                        #12
                        I'm making a few comments about the horses I backed and mentioned. Why? I don't want people to think these are nailed on certainties.

                        Canford Cliffs - very speedy but might not last the mile in the 2000 Guineas. I can always back a horse with speed that might not stay, but I can't back a horse with no speed.

                        Lady Of The Desert - it is likely she will run in the French 1000 Guineas (Poule D'Essai Des Pouliches) instead of the English 1000 Guineas. Her last run was at Newmarket and the unduluations of the course probably did not suit her.

                        Hibaayeb - afaik she moved trainers from Clive Brittain to Godolphin (who are notorious for messing up good horses). If you are backing Hibaayeb don't confuse her with Ed Dunlop's Habaayib.

                        Don Carlos - he ran yesterday and was Aidan O'Brien's first runner in England in 2010. He finished 11th of 16 in the Tattersalls Timeform 3-Y-O Trophy won by Coordinated Cut (Ameer 2nd). This might be the poker equivalent by Aidan O'Brien of "betting for information".

                        Timepiece - I was surprised she was among the Oaks (12f) favourites. She is by the miler Zamindar. Her half-sister Passage Of Time (by Dansili) had a better chance of lasting 12f imo but she was only 8th in the Oaks beaten 21 lengths (weaked 3f out).

                        Many horses running for the first time this year might be less fit than debutants most years due to the severe and prolonged cold weather.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          I take your comments on board, Sean. Surely though regardless of the pedigree a top trainer will have a good idea on whether the 3 yr old will stay the actual 12 f based on racecourse performances and carefull assessment at home. Can't recall Vincent O'Brien sending out too many non-stayers in the Derby. Some trainers obviously take the gamble on consultation with the owner because of the hugr stud fees that can be commandeered as a result of a derby victory.

                          Regarding Timepiece on Wednesday, she's no world beater but with Henry Cecil having a scaled down operation at this stage he must be able to give more individual attention to his horses and is obviously preparing this one for a tlt at the oaks. As New Approach pointed out the horse probably needs some cut in the ground and I thought the jockey Tp Queally didnt exactly persevere when an obviously more forward animal went a few lengths clear. I can't recall Cecils last winner of the oaks but I do remember his filly Oh So Sharp winning the fillies triple crown in 1985 when I was interested in flat racing. The last leg was the st ledger, yet between the oaks win and the st ledger she was outstayed by Petoski in the king george. I don't know where to check the breeding of one no longer in training but I think she could have been out of the sprinter Sharpo. The point been that she probably wasn't a true stayer of the oaks or st ledger distance but her class prevailed.
                          "Let your boat of life be light, packed with only what you need - a homely home and simple pleasures, one or two friends, worth the name, someone to love and someone to love you, a cat, a dog, and a pipe or two, enough to eat and enough to wear, and a little more than enough to drink; for thirst is a dangerous thing." Jerome K. Jerome Three men in a Boat

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Denis,

                            I was just preparing something when I saw your post. My first test of whether or not a horse will probably stay the 12f at classic pace is the dosage index (www.chef-de-race.com and www.pedigreequery.com).

                            These are the recent Oaks winners

                            In simple terms BR (brilliant) is 5f, 6f speed. IN (intermediate) is 7f, 8f, 9f. CL (classic) is 10f, 11f, 12f; ST (stout or solid) is 13f; 14f; 15f; and PR (professional) is 16f+.
                            These numbers for each horse are got by adding up those numbers the horse inherits from the sires in its pedigree. If you add the speed points (BR+IN+CL*.5) and divide by the stamina points (CL*.5+ST+PR) you get the ratio of speed to stamina expressed as a number called the Dosage Index. A DI of 4.0 would be a sprinter (four times as many speed as stamina points), while a DI of 1.0 would be a 12f horse, an equal number of speed and stamins points.

                            Many people slag the Dosage Index but it is a good starting point. It is a general guide as to the probable distance that will suit a horse. There are many "sprinters" who stay, and "stayers" who sprint, but for a sample of thousands of horses the numbers hold up.
                            I use the sires in the first 5 generations of the pedigree, most use the first 4 generations.

                            The numbers above are slightly inaccurate, as each year new chef-de-race sires get added and the numbers for previous winners should be revised when the new sire gets added (if he is in the pedigree of the previous winner).

                            See 1985 winner Oh So Sharp (1.10).

                            It is just a rough guide, but you can see that Timepiece has a highish number (2.0) for the Oaks. You can see that Timepiece has a lot of speed points (13 brilliant) and a lowish number of classic points (18).

                            Comment


                              #15
                              There is an article in Thoroughbred Owner & Breeder incorporating Pacemaker this month on Henry Cecil "Back at the top table". He has 120 horses. Nothing tipped but Timepiece is one of 5 fillies and 10 colts in his 3yo horses to follow in 2010.

                              Comment


                                #16
                                Have been hearing some good noises about Richard Hannon's horse Plume for the 1000 guineas. Won her second race on better ground pretty well last September and hopefully will be able to make step up in trip/class. Was supposed to run this saturday but appears to have been taken out (dunno if this is a good sign or not) and is entered in the Italian 1000 aswell, but if she starts think she has a good chance. Currently at 16's - 19's from origional quote of 100's. Fingers crossed!

                                ** any other info greatly appreciated **

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  Filly called Queen Of Spain is the apple of Aidan's eye atm. Beating the colts hands down.
                                  To accumulate enduring wealth, do not lend to grasshoppers.

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by robinblinds View Post
                                    Filly called Queen Of Spain is the apple of Aidan's eye atm. Beating the colts hands down.
                                    Is she an unraced 2-y-o? I can't find her on the Racing Post site.

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by robinblinds View Post
                                      Filly called Queen Of Spain is the apple of Aidan's eye atm. Beating the colts hands down.
                                      Ive heard they cant keep up with St Nicholas Abbey in the jeep

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Howard_Finkel View Post
                                        Ive heard they cant keep up with St Nicholas Abbey in the jeep
                                        Yep, heard pigeon deaths in Tipperary have risen by 250% this winter, due to heart attacks from being continually over-taken by SNA.

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Howard_Finkel View Post
                                          Ive heard they cant keep up with St Nicholas Abbey in the jeep
                                          He must have the speed for the July Cup then...

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by NewApproach View Post
                                            He must have the speed for the July Cup then...
                                            July Cup, Guineas, Derby, Acsot Gold Cup, Champion Hurdle, doesnt matter, This thing will make Sea The Stars look like Truckers Tavern

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by kincsem View Post
                                              Is she an unraced 2-y-o? I can't find her on the Racing Post site.

                                              Yes unraced 2yo. Late foal being kept for second half of the season.

                                              Unraced colt called Amen also v good. Another late foal.
                                              To accumulate enduring wealth, do not lend to grasshoppers.

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Howard_Finkel View Post
                                                Ive heard they cant keep up with St Nicholas Abbey in the jeep
                                                The clutch was fucked that week.
                                                To accumulate enduring wealth, do not lend to grasshoppers.

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by robinblinds View Post
                                                  Yes unraced 2yo. Late foal being kept for second half of the season.

                                                  Unraced colt called Amen also v good. Another late foal.
                                                  Whats their pedigrees?

                                                  Comment


                                                    #26
                                                    Workforce out of the Guineas

                                                    Comment


                                                      #27
                                                      My picks Lady Of The Desert (1000 Guineas) and canford Cliffs (2000 Guineas) ran at Newbury today, and both ran badly.

                                                      Lady Of The Derert fought for her head early in the race, led about 1f out, but faded badly into 3rd. It looks like the mile of the Guineas will be too far for her. Her trainer said afterwards that she blew hard, and probably needed the race. I'm not convinced. She looked too small to be a Guineas horse.

                                                      Canford Cliffs led about 2f out, showed good speed to take the lead, but faded into 2nd. He went left across the course and finished against the far rail. He also went left in the Coventry, and also in the Prix Morny. Three times he has finished against the left rail after travelling up the centre.

                                                      I'm mentally writing off those two. Two sprinters imo.

                                                      Comment


                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by kincsem View Post
                                                        My picks Lady Of The Desert (1000 Guineas) and canford Cliffs (2000 Guineas) ran at Newbury today, and both ran badly.

                                                        Lady Of The Derert fought for her head early in the race, led about 1f out, but faded badly into 3rd. It looks like the mile of the Guineas will be too far for her. Her trainer said afterwards that she blew hard, and probably needed the race. I'm not convinced. She looked too small to be a Guineas horse.

                                                        Canford Cliffs led about 2f out, showed good speed to take the lead, but faded into 2nd. He went left across the course and finished against the far rail. He also went left in the Coventry, and also in the Prix Morny. Three times he has finished against the left rail after travelling up the centre.

                                                        I'm mentally writing off those two. Two sprinters imo.
                                                        Agreed with all of this, just to add that LOTD won't run in Newmarket but instead in Longchamp. She didnt seem to like Newmarket in the Cheveley Park last year. Fallon said after the race that he thinks she will stay a mile no probs fwiw

                                                        Comment


                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by NewApproach View Post
                                                          Whats their pedigrees?
                                                          QOS - Holy Roman Emperor ex Starlight Dreams

                                                          Amen - Galileo ex Kitza
                                                          To accumulate enduring wealth, do not lend to grasshoppers.

                                                          Comment


                                                            #30
                                                            Came across this while wasting my life on the internet earlier, probably take it with a pinch of salt though

                                                            We have a lovely colt called RULING (Footstepsinthesand ex Chaturanga), he is doing everything nicely and should be an early type

                                                            We also really like a filly called QUEEN OF SPAIN (Holy Roman Emperor ex Starlight Dreams) she is a 3 parts sister to Mastercraftsman and is also doing everything very easily.

                                                            We have some nice horses for the second half of the season including AMEN (Galileo colt ex Kitza), FREEDOM (Hurricane Run ex Cute Cait) and a lovely Montjeu colt called PAWNEE out of Red Azalea.

                                                            Comment


                                                              #31
                                                              Ha
                                                              Where was that taken from? Is it in the RP?
                                                              To accumulate enduring wealth, do not lend to grasshoppers.

                                                              Comment


                                                                #32
                                                                What did you make of the Ballysax?

                                                                Clinka done for toe after 6/7f. But ran on nicely and was improving v quickly - the others could've stayed on too...

                                                                Johnny's not really firing on all cylinders so far this season, he gave Baracas a shocker in the 4.45 L'town. If any of you take a look at the replay let me know - I might be reading it wrong but the horse looked to be worth more than he was asked.
                                                                To accumulate enduring wealth, do not lend to grasshoppers.

                                                                Comment


                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by robinblinds View Post
                                                                  What did you make of the Ballysax?

                                                                  Clinka done for toe after 6/7f. But ran on nicely and was improving v quickly - the others could've stayed on too...

                                                                  Johnny's not really firing on all cylinders so far this season, he gave Baracas a shocker in the 4.45 L'town. If any of you take a look at the replay let me know - I might be reading it wrong but the horse looked to be worth more than he was asked.
                                                                  There's no Derby winner amongst them anyway. Mikael Glinka is one to avoid in the future. The winner wont do much more than this imo. Smullen had an awful time on Address Unknown, probably the one to take out of the race I reckon.

                                                                  Johnny certainly isnt getting stuck into his horses 100%, don't blame him though, it's a long season.

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    #34
                                                                    2000 Guineas

                                                                    I put €192 at 12/1 win on Canford Cliffs for the English 2000 Guineas with Paddy Power this evening. I wanted €250 but they had a limit on the bet.

                                                                    I'm going against my own comments above. Canford Cliffs lasted only 6f of the 7f Greenham and appeared to run out of steam after sprinting clear. The jockey allowed him coast the last 100 yards. He was beaten 1/2 length in a fast time, the fastest Greenham in 20 years. I think he will struggle to last the 8f of the 2000 Guineas. He might improve for the run but it looks like stamina is his weakness.

                                                                    The 2000 Guineas hot favourite, St Nicholas Abbey, is by Montjeu, a sire who is a strong influence for stamina. Montjeu has only sired two horses in his best 50 offspring that won at 7f or 8f as a 3-y-o. Most win at 10f, 12f and further. SNA might be too slow for the milers.

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by kincsem View Post
                                                                      English 2000 Guineas; 1000 Guineas; Oaks; Derby.

                                                                      Choices:
                                                                      2000 Guineas: Canford Cliffs 5/1 ................. 3rd
                                                                      1000 Guineas: Lady Of The Desert 16/1 ...... withdrawn
                                                                      Oaks: Hibaayeb 20/1
                                                                      Derby: Joshua Tree 33/1
                                                                      That's how antepost accumulators end.
                                                                      Time to reload.

                                                                      Comment

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