X-Factor Betting

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[Flushdraw]

If Luke/Hannah make bottom 2, then it will either go to deadlock or else Luke wins 3-1 and then it's down to public vote and he will get the nod. If Hannah goes bottom 2 again, then it's her 3rd time bottom 2 so unless it's against Sam C, she has to go.

Wait to hear this week's song choices first, but it's The Great British Songbook.

After backing him all along, i've just (basically) backed Nicholas not make the Top 3 because i think 8/1 is a ridiculous price. (Well i backed Louis to lose all his acts first which means that Tamera, Sam, Rough Copy make top 3). I think the show needs Tamera to make top 3, and Sam is looking unstoppable so that leaves Nicholas v Rough Copy imo. The straight match up is 11/10 Rough Copy, but i think Louis to lose all acts first is pretty much the same bet @ 8/1

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

...

[Flushdraw]

I'd have a long-term issue with Sam Bailey. Is a reasonably ugly older woman who can sing about as well as other very good singers ever going to sell many albums. Tamera can. She's lined up to be the next Leona Lewis - global stardom espec with the added bonus of absolute hotness. She would mint it in the US whereas Sam Bailey wouldn't get a look-in. There is the element of dislikeability, but that's for the show's PR people to manage. She's never going if she's bottom two.

I agree with you re marketing of Tamera. Looking at the history of female over 25/28s, there's hasn't been a top 3 finish by any of them. Bar Steve Brookstein winning in season 1, the overs haven't won since. Mary Byrne was the most succesful of late, finishing 5th in season 7. She topped the vote in week 1, 2nd in weeks 2/3, 3rd in week 4, 4th in weeks 5/6 the 5th/5th/4th before she got voted out. Sam is a far better singer imo, but is it a case of the public growing bored as the weeks went on while other acts grew with every performance. Not sure Sam will go that way, but i've said before that i don't think she has the X-factor.

We're never sure what rules the producers are going to make up as they are going along as they seem to change it to suit themselves, but last year with 7 left they all sang 2 songs and there was bottom 3, with the lowest going out, and then the next 2 lowest going against the judges. The following week for the first time ever, the judges continued with their vote and voted off Mary Byrne to give us a final of 4.

I think the only thing set in stone, is that the producers will try and rig it to see who they want in the final, and in my personal opinion, they'll want Tamera there for sure, Rough Copy a close 2nd and then the rest can come or go

[The Situation]

Leona Lewis was really liked though, she never had that cocky demeanor that Tamera has, was more vunerable and female voters could relate to her and was faaar better too. Alexandra Burke was similar, she became a twat with fame but was liked during the show. You're not going to win this without populatity, they've given it to absolute no hopers in terms of future career like that Joe loser a few years ago.

Trends can be useful but there's never been an over as talented as Sam B imo, Mary Burke was good but nothing that special so imo it's been more for the lack of talent than anything over the years why the overs have struggled.

Actually think Nicholas is the value in the outright now, he's been average enough for a few weeks but I'd blame the themes that are way beyond his years, difficult to sing something you've only learned in a week with any passion. He'll surely get the chance to sing more modern stuff in the coming weeks. Massive catchment area of voters in Scotland and is very popular anyway. Think himself and Sam will be the final 2.

[Semibluff]

Hannah Barrett – Satisfaction

Luke Friend – Your Song

Nicholas McDonald – Someone Like You

Rough Copy – Viva La Vida

Sam Bailey – Something

Sam Callahan – Faith

Tamera Foster – Diamonds Are Forever

[poprock]

Is this something yo do because



1. The girlfriend/wife loves it and it is good way to spend time together and you enjoy the betting market.


2. You see general value in the markets on a regular basis.


3. You are a closet homosexual and you are using betting as a further tool to hide behind the coats while enjoying the show?

[Flushdraw]

Hannah Barrett – Satisfaction

Luke Friend – Your Song

Nicholas McDonald – Someone Like You

Rough Copy – Viva La Vida

Sam Bailey – Something

Sam Callahan – Faith

Tamera Foster – Diamonds Are Forever

Just finished my piece for this weeks show. Hannah going @ 6/4 and maybe a shock bottom 2 for Tamera or Rough Copy. Think Sam C survives one more week. He feels like he's been a pawn and has been talking about it on Twitter. Big bet this week on No Deadlock @ 11/10 with BWIN. If either Hannah or Sam C are bottom 2 this week, they are going home on a 3-1 majority.

[Flushdraw]

Front page of The Sun tomorrow says that Sam Bailey has been getting 35% of the votes each week. Will take some stopping if that's the case!

http://tomorrowspaperstoday.com/

[Semibluff]

well written piece Tony, you should link it here weekly!


Sam C safe, Hannah bottom two my bets

[Hitchhiker's Guide To...]

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[FeetMagic]

What's the meaning behind Screwbo?

[Flushdraw]

What's the meaning behind Screwbo?

'The contestant has been dubbed 'Screwbo' because prison wardens are often referred to the as 'screws' and her first audition was reminiscent of Susan Boyle's - who was affectionately called SuBo'

[FeetMagic]

Shocking name.

[Flushdraw]

Had £45 in book profits on the overall win market, so popped it all on to Nicholas, on the grounds that he is highly likely to be top two and therefore the 5.3 is unlikely to stand as we approach endgame. Didn't think about it too much though.

Up until yesterday, i had Nicholas wrote off as a winner but i think the song choices are going to help him while they hinder Rough Copy so stayed away from it. I think the final 3 is going to include Sam Bailey and Tamera whatever happens, so it's a fightout between Rough Copy and Nicholas for the final top 3 spot. I'm a fan of Nicholas and hope he wins, but i think Rough Copy have the X-Factor and would make it a better final. Louis was 8/1 (still 7/1) to lose all his acts first meaning that Sam B, Tamera and Rough Copy made the final 3. I thought that price was huge tbh and almost pulled the trigger. Nicholas will defo be a shorter price after this weekend though and the 8/1 could come back again. The following weekend is 'Jukebox' theme i think, so we lose Sam C or Luke and then it's all a guessing game again!

[Flushdraw]

Song choices for this week. Bookies won't quite update their prices yet so might be able to sneak something. This could be a really good week for Hannah if she gets a late spot, and might not be a great week for Luke or Nicholas tbh. Hannah to avoid bottom 2 is 2/1 and Luke to be bottom 2 is 5/4 atm. Won't be that way tomorrow i'd imagine

Hannah Barrett – Hallelujah

Luke Friend – What Makes You Beautiful

Nicholas McDonald – The Climb

Rough Copy – Don’t Let Go

Sam Bailey – Bleeding Love

Tamera Foster – Impossible

[The Situation]

Song choices for this week. Bookies won't quite update their prices yet so might be able to sneak something. This could be a really good week for Hannah if she gets a late spot, and might not be a great week for Luke or Nicholas tbh. Hannah to avoid bottom 2 is 2/1 and Luke to be bottom 2 is 5/4 atm. Won't be that way tomorrow i'd imagine

Hannah Barrett – Hallelujah

Luke Friend – What Makes You Beautiful

Nicholas McDonald – The Climb

Rough Copy – Don’t Let Go

Sam Bailey – Bleeding Love

Tamera Foster – Impossible

What a shit theme- covers of awful winners songs in the past(some of which were also covers), happy enough that Sam B binked the Leona Lewis tune though.

Not proud of knowing this but they've given Luke a makeover this week, don't think the producers want him gone yet, couple that with the really teensy song they've given him I think they're trying to make a real push for young girl vote. Saying that the 5/4 isn't too bad, as it's hard to see Sam or Nic bottom 2, rough copy also seem to be popular, so it's probably a toss up between Hannah, Tamera and Luke for bottom 2.

[Flushdraw]

What a shit theme- covers of awful winners songs in the past(some of which were also covers), happy enough that Sam B binked the Leona Lewis tune though.

Not proud of knowing this but they've given Luke a makeover this week, don't think the producers want him gone yet, couple that with the really teensy song they've given him I think they're trying to make a real push for young girl vote. Saying that the 5/4 isn't too bad, as it's hard to see Sam or Nic bottom 2, rough copy also seem to be popular, so it's probably a toss up between Hannah, Tamera and Luke for bottom 2.

When i was writing up my preview this morn, i decided to plump for a bottom 2 of Tamera and Rough Copy. I don't think Tamera can pull that song off as she has a habit of forgetting her words and there's a lot to remember in that song. Also, with the bad press that James Arthur is getting, the X-Factor voters can be fickle and assovcate the 2. Rough Copy can still do a good job, but an early slot in the show could see it as a forgettable performance. Did a bit of a U Turn on Luke, because when looking into it, i've seen that he already did a cover version of a song by The 1975. That band have a good cover of One Direction's, What Makes You Beautiful which i think he might copy and it will go down really well with his followers

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tEVXmzHY1lU&feature=youtu.be

[Semibluff]

Ive backed hannah to go
I think if she gets bottom 2 vs anyone but luke she's a cert

she might be saved vs luke - but will prob lose if it goes to deadlick vs him

Often when a person is bottom two, their fan base and neutrals try doubly hard to save them, in the same breath - someone who was just saved has more chance of dropping in the following week

Also, with the makeover of Luke, and the young girl votes being shared between Nicholas and Sams best buddy Luke, youd imagine he'll be safe.

id much rather back 4/6 hannah to go than 4/9 her to be bottom 2

[SatNav]

Ive backed hannah to go

not after that performance.
Cant stand her but in fairness that was flawless

[Micknail]

Flushy bang on the money with the 1975 cover version.

[SatNav]

that was brutal..

[MrsFlushdraw]

Flushy bang on the money with the 1975 cover version.

And Tamera forgetting her words!

[westlife]

It's a strange one. Tamera deserves to be gone...... but has more X Factor then all the contestants put together (maybe a little unfair to RC). Hannahs one dimensional screaming is the least 'sellable' of all the remaining acts (tbf that saleability will consist of charts, East End shows and Butlins Holiday camps). Tamera is, supposedly, becoming more diva every day.... and if you noticed when all the contestants came out on stage tonight with arms around each other..... no one went near Tamera!

Think Hannah will be bottom 2. The second spot is interesting. Luke warm Luke went with a 1D song, and on that basis alone, might be safe from bottom 2. The surprise could be RC. I think they are one of the best talents on the show, but the dynamic this week might have them in a spot of bother. The good news for them, I think, is that if they are up against Hannah or Luke, they should be voted through to next week.

The Judges always talk about the potential of contestants when voting comes to the fore. Tamera's brain dead efforts at remembering words would not be tolerated by the judges from any other singer... even Sam B, but this girl has pop star written all over her and I think she will get though whatever happens.

Would love to get a bet on Tamera bottom 2...... and then to go through to next week.

Hannah should go........ 100%

[Flushdraw]

Haven't watched it yet because i was out pokering but sounds like i got a couple of things right. Tamera/RC bottom 2 now 3/1 but were 7/1 when i tipped them. Will be there or there abouts. Hard to predict it Hannah will get enough votes to avoid bottom 2.

http://www.sportsbettingonline.net/sbo-weekly/x-factor-betting-final-6/

[Flushdraw]

It's a strange one. Tamera deserves to be gone...... but has more X Factor then all the contestants put together (maybe a little unfair to RC).

You can get a possible 40/1 on Tamera this morning.

She is 20/1 on SpreadEx, and if you open an account, they'll give you double the odds on your 6th bet

[SatNav]

I reckon Nicholas will go tonight.

[westlife]

You can get a possible 40/1 on Tamera this morning.

She is 20/1 on SpreadEx, and if you open an account, they'll give you double the odds on your 6th bet

Don't think she can win it anymore Tony..... The final decision is the publics (I think) and she is not endearing herself.

AND SAT NAV HAS BEEN OVERINDULGING ON THE VODKA SHOTS!!

[The Situation]

Think Tamara actually has a better chance of surviving bottom two tonight because she fucked up. Like when she was smashing it and cocky she found herself bottom two a few weeks back, completely unjustified on talent but she was very unpopular. Now she's shown a more vulnerable side it's probably easier for voters to endear themselves to her, and realise just how young she is (younger than Nicolas which is pretty lol to look at them). Big overnight move for her to be bottom two tonight, I'm a layer at current odds on prices anyway.

Also lol Luke makeover- you can blame the betfair forum on that

[Flushdraw]

Don't think she can win it anymore Tony..... The final decision is the publics (I think) and she is not endearing herself.

AND SAT NAV HAS BEEN OVERINDULGING ON THE VODKA SHOTS!!

I don't think she can really win it either Phil, but i'd imagine a few of us have bets on Sam/RC and Nicholas, so a saver at 20/1 on Tamera could let you sit up and have a win/win situation. If even just to lay off if she survives this week. Can't imagine we'll see her greater than 9/1 from next week on.

[Semibluff]

isnt it annoying though, the whole popular kid thing

Tamera isnt the "nicest" girl. But she's 16, still developing and growing as child. She has the best chance of everyone to make it big (still think this!! Get her in a studio where she cant forget her lyrics and with Will.I.Am supporting her!)
To think she wont do well because the large voting group, dont like her personality and are jealous of her is a little sickening to think thats what its came down to!

She will sell more records long term than Sam B i think. Sam B will win this year and be a hit immediately, until she sizzles off the boil

But Tamera could be around for years and make the production company/Cowell a fortune. For this to happen she HAS to be in the top 3 I think. So following on from this, im sure she'll make it

[Semibluff]

I think laying Tamera to go tonight could be a brilliant bet

[The Situation]

Get in Tamera

[The Situation]

So contestants have to learn 4 songs this week, one they'll definitely be singing, the other viewers choose from a choice of 3. Poor old Tamera struggles with 1 so this could be an absolute car crash.

[Semibluff]

Their songs have been picked by the public already;

Luke Friend:

Own choice – I Will Wait
The people's choice - Skinny Love


Nicholas McDonald:

Own choice – Greatest Day
The people's choice - Just The Way You Are

Rough Copy:

Own choice – Every Little Step / She’s Got That Vibe
The people's choice - I Believe I Can Fly


Sam Bailey:

Own choice – How Will I Know?
The people's choice - Clown


Tamera Foster:

Own choice– We Found Love
The people's choice - The First Time Ever I Saw Your Face

[Semibluff]

I think Skinny Love might just save Luke from bottom 2.

I also think Tamera gets saved regardless (if bottom 2). Cowell wants superstars and cant make her 1 if not in the final 3. She will be a raving success

Luke vs rough copy, prob luke. But Ruby saves luke, Mrs O likes her "dark horse" and the other two 100% plunge for RC. Luke wins on public vote?

Rc or Luke against ANY of the others in the bottom two, and they go.

11/2 RC to go seems massive.
Dont think a solo R Kelly song will suit a 3 man band "I believe I can fly"

[Flushdraw]

I think Skinny Love might just save Luke from bottom 2.

I also think Tamera gets saved regardless (if bottom 2). Cowell wants superstars and cant make her 1 if not in the final 3. She will be a raving success

Luke vs rough copy, prob luke. But Ruby saves luke, Mrs O likes her "dark horse" and the other two 100% plunge for RC. Luke wins on public vote?

Rc or Luke against ANY of the others in the bottom two, and they go.

11/2 RC to go seems massive.
Dont think a solo R Kelly song will suit a 3 man band "I believe I can fly"

In a 5 horse race, i just don't Luke getting top 3 in votes this week to escape the bottom 2 so i reckon it's bye for him unfortunately. Here's my take from this morning

http://www.sportsbettingonline.net/sbo-weekly/x-factor-betting-final-five/

[Semibluff]

Agree Luke is prob bottom 2
But tamera isnt madly loved either. She may get in there with RC. there is a small chance

And Luke vs RC - he isnt a cert to go, i think deadlock is pretty likely.

The main thing going for us is that the judges should save Tamera

[Flushdraw]

11/2 RC to go seems massive.
Dont think a solo R Kelly song will suit a 3 man band "I believe I can fly"

Rough Copy as short as 5/4 to go home atm

[Semibluff]

Rough Copy as short as 5/4 to go home atm

yeh got a lil bigger than 6s on bf

see its RC vs Tamera betting wise. Luke had a cracking night as guessed and is safe.

then nicholas has shortened to 3-4s to go. Cant see him being sent home.

Hopefully the RC idiot and his schoolbag will be sent home

[The Situation]

Was Luke that good last night? That's some crazy drift on him on betfair for bottom 2.

[westlife]

yeh got a lil bigger than 6s on bf

see its RC vs Tamera betting wise. Luke had a cracking night as guessed and is safe.

then nicholas has shortened to 3-4s to go. Cant see him being sent home.

Hopefully the RC idiot and his schoolbag will be sent home

Have just seen last nights episode ..... Is it just me or was Nicholas horrendous? (off key for most of the falsetto .....

Somebody has had a word in Tamaras ear and told her to try and come across as "softer".

All Lukes songs are starting to sound the same!

Nicolas could be a surprise bottom 2!!!

[Flushdraw]

Have just seen last nights episode ..... Is it just me or was Nicholas horrendous? (off key for most of the falsetto .....

Somebody has had a word in Tamaras ear and told her to try and come across as "softer".

All Lukes songs are starting to sound the same!

Nicolas could be a surprise bottom 2!!!

It wouldn't be that much of a surprise, he's just behind Tamera and RC in the betting

[Semibluff]

its 7/4 your pick RC and Tamera to go

Nic 7/2

all betfair

I hope im not wrong, but i still think the value is in Rough Copy

Vs Tamera, RC biggest (neutral) fan Nicole, abandons them. and they prob lose 3-1 in votes

Vs Nicholas, they prob lose 3-1 in votes. Even if its 2-2 he still comes thruogh in public vote

The "sway" vote, which depends on their actual performances, is a lot lower than people allow for, I think

[westlife]

its 7/4 your pick RC and Tamera to go

Nic 7/2

all betfair

I hope im not wrong, but i still think the value is in Rough Copy

Vs Tamera, RC biggest (neutral) fan Nicole, abandons them. and they prob lose 3-1 in votes

Vs Nicholas, they prob lose 3-1 in votes. Even if its 2-2 he still comes thruogh in public vote

The "sway" vote, which depends on their actual performances, is a lot lower than people allow for, I think

I actually think the "sing off" has zero to do with what the judges will decide... With the bottom 2, they have made up their minds 100% BEFORE they sing... Have backed Nic for bottom 2

[SatNav]

WOW thats some shock!

hope Tamara goes!!!!

[westlife]

I actually think the "sing off" has zero to do with what the judges will decide... With the bottom 2, they have made up their minds 100% BEFORE they sing... Have backed Nic for bottom 2

Jesus, thought I was 10's on once RC got through!

[Semibluff]

UGH, how did RC dodge that

Who goes?

Should be Tamera, will be luke? they cant send luke home after saying he won the show last week

[westlife]

WOW thats some shock!

hope Tamara goes!!!!

gary & Sharon vote for Luke...I'd say shes gone!

[westlife]

gary & Sharon vote for Luke...I'd say shes gone!

1/2 with boyles GET ON!

[westlife]

1/2 with boyles GET ON!

lumped on 4/7 come onnnnnnn

[westlife]

Garry Barlow is a fucking disgrace....... Saying all weekend how Luke is the person to sell records, how he thinks he is fantastic and the best bla bla bla and then votes for deadlock...... Joke! Thanks for the heart failure! It's a soap!!

[westlife]

and finally......... Nicole yummmmmmmmmmmmmmmm!

[SatNav]

Garry Barlow is a fucking disgrace....... Saying all weekend how Luke is the person to sell records, how he thinks he is fantastic and the best bla bla bla and then votes for deadlock...... Joke! Thanks for the heart failure! It's a soap!!

Life savings lost on bet?

[westlife]

Life savings lost on bet?

No, I backed Luke heads up to go through you dope! Barlow is a spineless, rigging bastard!

[Semibluff]

Garry Barlow is a fucking disgrace....... Saying all weekend how Luke is the person to sell records, how he thinks he is fantastic and the best bla bla bla and then votes for deadlock...... Joke! Thanks for the heart failure! It's a soap!!

he won his bet Sat Nav

Id say the judges know who's lost public vote before they go there

[Semibluff]

wish i was beyond minted so i could lay RC to win

1/18 chance they win this?

My arse

[westlife]

Think the value now lies in the without market. Luke at 2/1 with a savor on RC at 5/1.... McD looks like a guy who reached his voting potential a few weeks ago...... Bad performance last week and is bringing nothing extra to the table!

[Semibluff]

i plan on doing my stones backing RC to go at evens

[Donk Magnet]

i plan on doing my stones backing RC to go at evens

11/10 with powers.