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**The Situation** · 12-10-13, 11:33

The prison officer for me. Decent voice, has likeability and the producers will be really funking for a Sharon win on her return.

**Hitchhiker's Guide To...** · 12-10-13, 22:30

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**Hitchhiker's Guide To...** · 12-10-13, 22:39

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**Flushdraw** · 12-10-13, 22:51

Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post

I'd say Tamera and Rough Copy were the planned end acts, but Kingsland clearly dominated the show tonight so might be allowed into the fold? There's a bit of something about Rough Copy though - like bigger than the show type of a feel to them.

Thinking of putting a trading out bet on Luke Fields though. He has type of voice that can get through the show

Was always going to be an interesting first week, and i think the producers could have panned it out whatever way they wanted by the running order. They didn't really put many weaker acts out early until they see how they all performed on the stage. I think most did a decent job. No novelty/really bad acts this week so will generally be down to who sings worst with no gimmicks. There could be a ton of money to be made trading week in week out. I'd lay Tamera (careful!) for a top 2 place. Gary for winning manager @ 11/4 with both the male groups set for a deep run won't stay around for long

**Hitchhiker's Guide To...** · 12-10-13, 23:17

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**KevIRL** · 13-10-13, 19:25

How much does the night one flash vote and the fact there is no deadlock this year change things?

**Flushdraw** · 13-10-13, 20:09

Originally posted by KevIRL View Post

How much does the night one flash vote and the fact there is no deadlock this year change things?

Was saying to Gillian, that it's going to be really tough for the act that gets the flash vote. On the Sunday night, the act that finishes bottom should almost always get saved by their own mentor, so they need all 3 other judges to vote for the flash vote loser for them to go home. Sharon should be made choose imo, and it's a joke that Lorna went home tonight. Hopefully Shelley won't be another Christopher Maloney

**Semibluff** · 15-10-13, 15:37

none of the over 25s will feature in the outright finals. I know this is stating the obvious on the long shots, but they just cant win.

Their voting public will be shared between each other until one of them goes. They are just too simular and are eating into one of the smaller public voting pools. Expect them both to be in the bottom few until one gets voted out. Neither have a chance though. Prison guard will do well, but them trying to make her look sexy is just wrong.
Advise laying them for top 3 (surprised at Baileys price) and outside bets on bottom for the night until one of them goes.
the 80s power ballads were their forte, it only gets worse from here!

Im not sure why the band get such bad opinion Miss Dynamix. They arent bad. they pregnant one is some singer, and they are pretty to look at.

Sam Callaghan will get the female vote, but he cant sing strong enough to win it. If it comes down to him or Nicholas, the judge will have to save Nicholas. Even Nicole was trying to give him the "isnt he cute" big up the other night

That Hannah Barret isnt a likeable character. The media will destroy her if she gets further. although a very good singer, she wont have enough to get past 4th spot

Abi Alton is a one trick pony and is on borrowed time. Even Nicole doesnt believe in her fairy dust pixie style singing

Tamera just reminds me so much of Rebecca Ferguson. Brill singer, but thats not enough to win it without a bit of attitude.

The boy band aspect should get Kingsland road very far. Theyre not that good, and annoying fkrs, but with One Direction so popular, the white cheeky boy band should definetly over-achieve

think the lads in Rough Copy should really progress as soon as Kingsland exit (not the same market as them, but will be hampered slightly) theyll also get a lot of votes from some of the exited acts

Order of exit:
Shelley
Abi/Miss dynamix
Luke
Sam Bailey
Sam Callaghan
Hannah
Kingsland
Tamera
Nicholas
Rough Copy winner

With possible upset from Kingsland getting a few spots further, or if sam callaghan gets KO'd soon, then luke could do well

This is without knowing the upcoming weeks song choices and which genre will suit whom

**The Situation** · 15-10-13, 15:55

^^Leave it out, Bailey ftw. Wouldn't be backing her now but happy with my 11's before last week. Not sure she's that similar to Shelly who's a fairly average singer. Oldies with likeabilty have done well down the years on these shows like Michelle Mcmanus, Steve Brookstein and Matt Cardle, none of them had much going for them apart from being nice and having a decent voice. Obv destined for the scrap heap after the show but not sure if she's quite the no hoper you suggest in a very weak year.

**Semibluff** · 16-10-13, 10:20

Originally posted by The Situation View Post

^^Leave it out, Bailey ftw. Wouldn't be backing her now but happy with my 11's before last week. Not sure she's that similar to Shelly who's a fairly average singer. Oldies with likeabilty have done well down the years on these shows like Michelle Mcmanus, Steve Brookstein and Matt Cardle, none of them had much going for them apart from being nice and having a decent voice. Obv destined for the scrap heap after the show but not sure if she's quite the no hoper you suggest in a very weak year.

Yeh just my opinion, but look at Mary (the irish one). She's as likable as bailey, and also was the only one to topple Matt Cardle to number one for any of the weekly votes. Yet couldnt make it deep. Theres just too small of a voting public for this audience. More likely people vote for her based on Mrs O, than for her voice.

For fear of offending, lets try and look at the voting groups. (Guesses)
Teen Girls - 45%
Female 20-35 - 25%
Public in general (families, males, the rest) the remaining 30%

How do they vote.
Regionally
Ethnicity
Voice
Judge?? (id allow little for this)
Fancies (who they want to keep seeing on tv)

I dont see Bailey receiving votes in any of these categories.

Matt Cardle was in the boys category

Matt Cardle Fit into the large female markets. Decent looking and for the criteria of the show and the pidgeon hole
vocals they ask for weekly, his voice adapted for it.

Theres a trend to winners, in all of the Xfactors UK to date;
only 1 overs winner (the first one) with 5 top 3s, 2 seconds, out of 27 possible positions.
Little Mings were the only group winners, with JLS (2nd) and 1D (3rd) showing that groups rarely do well. I think this year may be a bit different off the buzz of the judge and success around boy bands (uk based) as present

Agree its a weak year, but it normally follows patterns. I know one lad who made a fortune backing JedWard to stay in weekly. Not because they are any use, but because of their massive voting market

**DeadParrot** · 16-10-13, 10:58

Haven't been watching it BUT Sharon has been telling anyone who'll listen she wants in on the US one.
Also let it slip earlier in the series she has 'never won'
I've no idea what group she has but pretty safe to write her off this year.
This year is also Gary's last year so final hurrah, here have a winner?

**Semibluff** · 16-10-13, 11:12

Originally posted by DeadParrot View Post

Haven't been watching it BUT Sharon has been telling anyone who'll listen she wants in on the US one.
Also let it slip earlier in the series she has 'never won'
I've no idea what group she has but pretty safe to write her off this year.
This year is also Gary's last year so final hurrah, here have a winner?

yeh she has the worse group! The over whatevers
Gary has a great shout.

but apart for some heavy editing, its out of the producers hands who wins

**The Situation** · 16-10-13, 13:13

Originally posted by Semibluff View Post

Yeh just my opinion, but look at Mary (the irish one). She's as likable as bailey, and also was the only one to topple Matt Cardle to number one for any of the weekly votes. Yet couldnt make it deep. Theres just too small of a voting public for this audience. More likely people vote for her based on Mrs O, than for her voice.

For fear of offending, lets try and look at the voting groups. (Guesses)
Teen Girls - 45%
Female 20-35 - 25%
Public in general (families, males, the rest) the remaining 30%

How do they vote.
Regionally
Ethnicity
Voice
Judge?? (id allow little for this)
Fancies (who they want to keep seeing on tv)

I dont see Bailey receiving votes in any of these categories.

Matt Cardle was in the boys category

Matt Cardle Fit into the large female markets. Decent looking and for the criteria of the show and the pidgeon hole
vocals they ask for weekly, his voice adapted for it.

Theres a trend to winners, in all of the Xfactors UK to date;
only 1 overs winner (the first one) with 5 top 3s, 2 seconds, out of 27 possible positions.
Little Mings were the only group winners, with JLS (2nd) and 1D (3rd) showing that groups rarely do well. I think this year may be a bit different off the buzz of the judge and success around boy bands (uk based) as present

Agree its a weak year, but it normally follows patterns. I know one lad who made a fortune backing JedWard to stay in weekly. Not because they are any use, but because of their massive voting market

Tbf Cardle was over 25 at the time, the overs were 28+ that year so they've moved the goalposts around on that front over the years. Interest top 3 wager? Looks about 5/4 average odds so my 100 to your 120.

**Semibluff** · 17-10-13, 18:51

Originally posted by The Situation View Post

Tbf Cardle was over 25 at the time, the overs were 28+ that year so they've moved the goalposts around on that front over the years. Interest top 3 wager? Looks about 5/4 average odds so my 100 to your 120.

yeh 100
Booked

youd want to be seeing the back of shelley sooner rather than later for yours to have best chance

**Semibluff** · 17-10-13, 18:52

I like rough copy at evens to get there also, if anyone wants to oppose

**Semibluff** · 17-10-13, 23:00

few polls i looked at had a Sam B as their faves, over 300 votes or so. you could be on to a good thing there Sit!! ooops!

How do we think the flash vote helps it? Im thinking the voters who watch and vote, the general public - vote more for the song and performance than the person

the delayed voting helps those who have favourites, forget the song a bit and get behind their Guy/Girl to give them another chance
Also flash voting removes the "re-vote" aspect a lot. So those with a massive catchment area of loyal voters, wont feature as high coz they cant vote 20 times each
but should make this up on a sunday

**Semibluff** · 17-10-13, 23:22

4s on Shelley to be next out with Bwin is amazing!

She's singing "Single Ladies" - think I just got sick a little in my mouth thinking of that

**The Situation** · 17-10-13, 23:38

Originally posted by Semibluff View Post

few polls i looked at had a Sam B as their faves, over 300 votes or so. you could be on to a good thing there Sit!! ooops!

She was the stand out in week 1 so not hugely surprising, not necessarily always a good thing though peaking too early(obv prefer it to struggling), but we haven't seen if she sinks or swims outside her comfort zone yet so how she deals with that whenever it happens could either see her go strong fav or drift back out again.

I just can't see them leaving Sharon without an act for the final on her return which I'd see as my biggest + for the bet, don't think you can underestimate how much the editing can sway a publics opinion on a contestant.

**Semibluff** · 20-10-13, 10:33

thought Hannah was brilliant last night. Apart from her and maybe nicholas, its Tameras to lose

she's that comfortable she'd remind you of our conor at cheltenham

**KevIRL** · 20-10-13, 19:28

Abi Alton to go tonight, 3/1, worth a shot. Whomever is tonights qualifier for the sing off will go anyway, cant see them dumping Kingsland Road this early

**KevIRL** · 20-10-13, 19:46

Originally posted by KevIRL View Post

Abi Alton to go tonight, 3/1, worth a shot. Whomever is tonights qualifier for the sing off will go anyway, cant see them dumping Kingsland Road this early

oh well

**Semibluff** · 20-10-13, 20:05

Jaysus, im addicted to this show now!!

Easy 4/1 shot!!

without songs - got to think Abi and an upset for bottom two. Dont think we'll see the girl band lasting, even if they get through votes wise, due to the illness etc

**Hitchhiker's Guide To...** · 20-10-13, 20:17

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**Semibluff** · 20-10-13, 21:20

yeh means for the sing off, if they arent a strong faves, then theyll lose

IE - two seperate judges. This means, they vote for their own 98% of the time

then if the other two are split, the flash vote loser loses. So theyre massive dogs going into must heads ups

**Semibluff** · 20-10-13, 23:39

Sit - this is a good market for you, if you have faith in Sam Bailey

Attention Required! | Cloudflare

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/x-factor/first-to-lose-all-acts

You need Gary to lose for you to win, 3s aint bad!

**The Situation** · 21-10-13, 04:34

Originally posted by Semibluff View Post

Sit - this is a good market for you, if you have faith in Sam Bailey

Attention Required! | Cloudflare

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/x-factor/first-to-lose-all-acts

You need Gary to lose for you to win, 3s aint bad!

That does look on the big side, he could well be down to 1 act in the following few weeks making it basically a Sam v Rough Copy last longest.

**Semibluff** · 21-10-13, 11:14

yeh you got to imagine thats what it means, so 3s is very big!

**Hitchhiker's Guide To...** · 24-10-13, 23:38

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**Flushdraw** · 25-10-13, 00:14

Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post

Put a bit on Sam Bailey at 66/1 to be bottom of flashvote on Sat. I'd imagine 10mins of voting is a crapshoot, so 66/1 on anyone is excellent. She's also singing Celine Dion so the inevitable comments from panel of 'why don't you do something different?'

Seems like a good shout Hitch. It's not an easy one to predict this week. Potential for some really good performances, most noticeably Hannah singing Skyfall imo.

I bet i like this weekend is neither Luke or Abi to be in bottom 2 @ 10/11. Moon River should really suit her and Luke singing Seal should also suit him. Can see Sam C and Miss Dynamix bottom 2 this weekend, but wouldn't mind seeing Sam B there too.

**Semibluff** · 25-10-13, 01:52

I think all the Abi markets are good bets

From the gist of the fans forums, she's up there with the most detested.
She will bore the absolute face off anyone. she just doesnt have a different gear.

This is a class song, but its also one my dad sang when a tenor in a choir. Its not something that will come across well, i dont think. you could literally talk it! I predict her to struggle

IF they say that miss dynamix deserve a chance (all down to the editing) then she could be goosed.

4/1 to go and 5/1 bottom saturday are very good bets. 6/4 bottom two isnt too bad either, we've no idea yet how the sunday voters will go. but with a bad performance and her popularity not sky high - i think she is odds on for bottom 2, never mind the 6/4 avail

I also think backing Hannah now at 9s is a great bet. She is absolutely going to destroy this song, prob be song of the weekend. Youll def get to trade out of her at 5s or so. she isnt going anywhere for a few weeks atleast

Nicholas is getting a little predictable with the song choices, but unlike Abi, he's nailing them. so if it aint broken . . .

**Semibluff** · 25-10-13, 01:56

Originally posted by Flushdraw View Post

Seems like a good shout Hitch. It's not an easy one to predict this week. Potential for some really good performances, most noticeably Hannah singing Skyfall imo.

I bet i like this weekend is neither Luke or Abi to be in bottom 2 @ 10/11. Moon River should really suit her and Luke singing Seal should also suit him. Can see Sam C and Miss Dynamix bottom 2 this weekend, but wouldn't mind seeing Sam B there too.

Think the coursey/hoarsey chorus of this song, suits Luke perfectly. Id imagine itll be his best performance and he'll be safe (he's not been that good so far, he isnt that good anyways)

**Hitchhiker's Guide To...** · 25-10-13, 07:02

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**shrapnel** · 25-10-13, 08:23

Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post

Miss Dynamix got to be given a second chance due to the pregnancy thing imo. Country went crazy very recently with perceived poor attitudes to a pregnant MP.

She s 6 monts pregnant though. No doubt they want her off ASAP (and completely understandably so). Having missed one week, they should automatically go in the bottom 2 as the flash vote IMO.

The other 2 girls must be fuming after their hopes were just obliterated.

**The Situation** · 25-10-13, 08:44

Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post

Put a bit on Sam Bailey at 66/1 to be bottom of flashvote on Sat. I'd imagine 10mins of voting is a crapshoot, so 66/1 on anyone is excellent. She's also singing Celine Dion so the inevitable comments from panel of 'why don't you do something different?'

Ugh no matter how much she nails it it's about 1/10 someone throws the "one trick pony" accusation her way. She'll be fine this week but hopefully doesn't force her into trying something a bit alternative next week and proving them right.

Think Luke will struggle with Kiss From a Rose, think he looks the most awkward on stage doing songs he clearly hates, but this one is particularly difficult to pull off. 7/2 bottom two this week.

**Semibluff** · 25-10-13, 12:03

i think this song is a very good fit for Luke. Should be very safe. Theres 4 weaker acts, and i think its just a matter of who joins Dynamix.

Agree they go 100% in the next 3 weeks, so they should be bottom 3 every week until then

**Hitchhiker's Guide To...** · 25-10-13, 16:46

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**Semibluff** · 25-10-13, 16:57

take the 4.1 on abi then!

**The Situation** · 25-10-13, 17:05

Agree with Hitch re the girls, they're plenty short for bottom 2. Also think Kingsland should be safe, editors will play on the usual bs that they were bottom 2 last week and how they've come back stronger. Was part reason I thought Luke was value bottom 2 by default, as well as the song.

**Hitchhiker's Guide To...** · 26-10-13, 21:17

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**Hitchhiker's Guide To...** · 26-10-13, 21:26

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**Flushdraw** · 26-10-13, 21:30

Kneejerk reaction tonight seeing Rough Copy as only 5/6 to finish ahead of Hannah? Think it was sort of expected after their songs tonight but think it will be normal sevrice resumed from next week. Rough Copy really are 3 fantastic singers and i'm expecting them to make the final 4.

**Hitchhiker's Guide To...** · 26-10-13, 21:52

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**Flushdraw** · 26-10-13, 22:02

Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post

A rather big bet. £200 to win £1800 if Miss Dynamix don't go tomorrow. Thoughts are that should be able to green up when other bottom two is announced. Plus the aforementioned pregnancy thing.

Surely the other bottom 2 will only be Abi or Sam C, and no chance you green up if it's anyone else? You need just 2 of the other 3 judges to choose Miss D over Abi or Sam to survive. Can't see this being too profitable for you Hitch

**KevIRL** · 26-10-13, 22:03

Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post

A rather big bet. £200 to win £1800 if Miss Dynamix don't go tomorrow. Thoughts are that should be able to green up when other bottom two is announced. Plus the aforementioned pregnancy thing.

Think you are overrating the pregnancy thing Hitch, they were shite tonight and the judges told them as much as well

**Hitchhiker's Guide To...** · 26-10-13, 22:06

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**Flushdraw** · 26-10-13, 22:14

Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post

So you're saying you'd like to buy me out of this hole?

Ladbrokes are offering 1/10 on Miss D, 14/1 Abi and 14/1 Sam C to go. Seems a little off, but you could be in trouble Hitch!

**Hitchhiker's Guide To...** · 26-10-13, 22:30

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**The Situation** · 27-10-13, 05:13

Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post

Okay due to universal disapproval traded out of that bet. Everything now on Tamera to win. Please don't point out any problems with that.

How would you rate her on likeabilty considering young girls make up a considerable % of the voting numbers? Think she's by far the most marketable contestant and only one with a shred of potential of making some bash at a career from it but that's not hugely relavant for this competition if your personality doesn't appeal.

**KevIRL** · 03-11-13, 20:48

Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post

Okay due to universal disapproval traded out of that bet. Everything now on Tamera to win. Please don't point out any problems with that.

Tamera in bottom 2, shocker.

See they have gotten rid of flash vote as well, probably unhappy as it greatly reduced the producers control over who goes

Surely Kingsland Road fucked, although the other judges could vote smart to get rid of Tamera

**careca** · 03-11-13, 20:49

Originally posted by KevIRL View Post

Tamera in bottom 2, shocker.

See they have gotten rid of flash vote as well, probably unhappy as it greatly reduced the producers control over who goes

Surely Kingsland Road fucked, although the other judges could vote smart to get rid of Tamera

Hitch is in the middle of a novena I reckon

**The Situation** · 03-11-13, 21:43

Good night for Bailey, gone clear fav on bf now.

Survival or not it's a very bad sign for Tamera, put her name into twitter search and you get an absolute torrent of hate for her, she's definitely struggling on the popularity front.

**The Situation** · 03-11-13, 21:57

Also I read the Star leaked during the week that Nicholas has topped the polls every week so far, apparently their info has been very accurate when they done this in previous years.

**Hitchhiker's Guide To...** · 03-11-13, 23:18

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**Semibluff** · 04-11-13, 21:28

Yeh Sam Bailey seems to be coasting. Second best singer and most popular. (edit to say - maybe the best singer its close, but
Tamera just has the entire package, and at such a young age too)

Nicholas must just be because of his large catchment area for votes, and then his age also.

Rough copy will do ok still.

Tamera best singer by a mile, but theyll need serious editing to get her over the line. Being 16, and the envy of every girl voting doesnt help.

There may be a bit of value in backing Sam to avoid bottom 2. His fan base is massive. 200k followers on twitter, fans pages and accounts. He's beyond useless, but should have enough to dodge bottom two. The second he's in there, he's goosed!

if its abi vs hannah, abi goes. She might have a chance vs luke, but prob not. So id be backing abi to go next

**Semibluff** · 08-11-13, 02:22

Abi Alton – That’s Life

Hannah Barrett – This Is A Man’s World

Luke Friend – Moondance

Nicholas McDonald – Dream A Little Dream

Rough Copy – Hit The Road Jack

Sam Bailey – New York New York

Sam Callahan – Ain’t That A Kick In The Head

Tamera Foster – Cry Me A River

Here's the choices

Once they dont use flash voting I expect Tameras fans to have woken up and she's guaranteed safe from bottom two.
Sometimes its the scare of people not voting as theyre sure she's safe

Sam's massive audience and the fact that the majority of these songs can be sang/talked with some suave and attitude means He could be safe again

Abi is attempting a Frank Song. Im going to say Abi is a cert for bottom 2 in what should be a 3 horse race. 6/4 + on what i think is a 4/9 shot (re abi)
Hannah isnt liked, but shes got another strong song that will suit her.

One massive discrepancy is that they have Sam even money for bottom 2, yet he is 2/1 to go.
If he goes bottom 2, he will 100% go. I dont think theres anyway this isnt true.

I think he might escape bottom 2 again, and would make him odds against slightly for it. but if I was backing him for bottom two - id 100% rather take the "next to exit" 2/1+ .

**Flushdraw** · 09-11-13, 18:14

Abi was 5/2 to go yesterday, but best priced 15/8. Hopefully that's her out the door! Abi/Hannah bottom 2 with Abi to go imo

**The Situation** · 09-11-13, 19:21

Looks like Bailey's in unfamiliar territory tonight as she singing about a big apple

**Flushdraw** · 10-11-13, 20:47

Originally posted by Flushdraw View Post

Abi was 5/2 to go yesterday, but best priced 15/8. Hopefully that's her out the door! Abi/Hannah bottom 2 with Abi to go imo

So far so good

**Semibluff** · 12-11-13, 11:36

I think Sam Callaghan might have 1 more week of surviving by the skin of his teeth

Luke and Hannah for bottom 2. Luke to exit.

If Sam goes bottom two, then get the house on him to go

Hannah a cert for bottom two
Luke the value to go
Sam Callaghan to avoid bottom two worth a punt too

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