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Old 27-03-17, 19:56   #1
Bluezar
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Millions Phase 1 Live Spot -Thoughts Please

Hi all,

I played the PartyPoker Millions Phase 1 today in Citywest and busted quite early - I would love to get your thoughts on my bustout hand as it happened quite early just towards the end of level two.
The starting stack was 100k with blinds at 250/500 with 50 ante. Level 2 where i busted was 500/1000 with 100 ante.
My table was playing 7 handed and I had about 52k after losing a chunk in two big hands earlier, one where I had AJ v JJ on a J92A5 board and one where I triple barrel bluffed and got called.

I was in seat 4 and did not know anyone except Max Silver in seat 3. The table had been quiet enough apart from a big pots.

Seat 2 opens to €2.5k UTG +1.
Max calls in seat 3 for €2.5k
I look down at AQ in seat 4 and call €2.5k.
Button and Small Blind both fold.
Big Blind thinks for a minute and then raises to €11k.
Seat 2 thinks and calls the €11k
Max in Seat 3 calls quick enough for €11k.

I considered my options and decided that if I was to come over the top there was a very strong possibility that all 3 players would fold and I would be able to add €35k to my €52k stack without seeing a flop.

My reasoning:
- I felt the big blind was making a squeeze play
- I felt both seat 2 and 3 had a pair between 55 - JJ and would be unlikely to risk such a large amount early on in a marginal spot.
- If I was unlucky enough to get called, I would likely be flipping

As it was:
The big blind folded quick enough
Seat 2 announces call and seat 3 folds quick enough
Seat 2 turns over KK and I lose the 70/30

I would love to hear what other players would have done in my spot preflop as it is definitely a hand I think I can learn from.

Last edited by Bluezar; 27-03-17 at 20:06.
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Old 27-03-17, 23:43   #2
Hectorjelly
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You will get better responses if you don't give the results in the OP. Interesting hand. There's a few problems I have with your line of thinking. First of all, your hand look exactly like 88 through tens, and AQ. Few players will flat an open with AA or KK, and a much smaller percentage will flat an opener and a caller with AA/KK. So a downside of your shove is that opponents will call perfectly against your range.

The second problem I have is putting the 2nd player firmly on 55-JJ. The BB's 3bet is large enough that I would expect any thinking player to just call AA/KK, there's almost no merit in raising.

Lastly you say you felt the BB was making a squeeze play. Did you have any evidence for this? It sounds almost like wishful thinking. In any case, if you think he is squeezing then calling becomes pretty attractive. Your in pretty good position after the flop and excellent relative position since the 3better will likely lead and the two other players will react to his bet before you have to do anything.

I'd strongly consider just folding to the original raise, unless there are players in the hand you have a good read on/are better than. Thats assuming its AQ offsuit. Suited call call is by far the best line.

On a side note Partys blinds really annoy me. A 100k stack should be more than 200bbs in the opening level.
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Old 28-03-17, 05:47   #3
Mellor
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Sure, the BB's raise does look like a squeeze. But in a similar light, your flat/4bet line looks transparent also, in that you have a hand with some flip value, and certainly don't have AA.
And the fact a squeeze is likely doesn't mean its certain. The chances of him being dealt QQ+ in the BB is about 1%, the chances of holding it when he 3 bets is higher.

Same applies to the OR. He's statistically likely to hold a mid strength hand. But QQ+ is not impossible. he could have easily decided that flatting is best at this point. You've just capped his range at JJ as it suits the idea you've a coin flip if called. If you have AK, you'd probably cap it at QQ.

I understand you thinking at that point, but I think you are over-reaching a little towards the hands/decisions you want everyone to have. And they are probably the most likely scenerio. The issue for me that that when you're right you win the minimum, and when you are wrong you're in a very bad spot.
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Old 28-03-17, 10:22   #4
colm_leche
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It would be interesting to know starting stacks, assuming there has been a reasonable migration away from 100K starting stacks, as this will help define ranges of S3, S3, & BB in a 3-bet pot a little more.

I.e. if BB and Max are a little deeper, are they likely to be a bit wider. If S3 is playing less than 100K, he should be tighter.

Even on a short handed table, a backraise with AQ in a 3 bet pot with 2 callers seems optimistic.
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Old 28-03-17, 18:21   #5
PokerPiper
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluezar View Post
Hi all,

I played the PartyPoker Millions Phase 1 today in Citywest and busted quite early - I would love to get your thoughts on my bustout hand as it happened quite early just towards the end of level two.
The starting stack was 100k with blinds at 250/500 with 50 ante. Level 2 where i busted was 500/1000 with 100 ante.
My table was playing 7 handed and I had about 52k after losing a chunk in two big hands earlier, one where I had AJ v JJ on a J92A5 board and one where I triple barrel bluffed and got called.

I was in seat 4 and did not know anyone except Max Silver in seat 3. The table had been quiet enough apart from a big pots.

Seat 2 opens to 2.5k UTG +1.
Max calls in seat 3 for 2.5k
I look down at AQ in seat 4 and call 2.5k.
Button and Small Blind both fold.
Big Blind thinks for a minute and then raises to 11k.
Seat 2 thinks and calls the 11k
Max in Seat 3 calls quick enough for 11k.

I considered my options and decided that if I was to come over the top there was a very strong possibility that all 3 players would fold and I would be able to add 35k to my 52k stack without seeing a flop.

My reasoning:
- I felt the big blind was making a squeeze play
- I felt both seat 2 and 3 had a pair between 55 - JJ and would be unlikely to risk such a large amount early on in a marginal spot.
- If I was unlucky enough to get called, I would likely be flipping

As it was:
The big blind folded quick enough
Seat 2 announces call and seat 3 folds quick enough
Seat 2 turns over KK and I lose the 70/30

I would love to hear what other players would have done in my spot preflop as it is definitely a hand I think I can learn from.
Sounds to me like you may have been steaming from previous hands/losses and anxiously saw this as a spot to get back in the game. As played I fold the AQ to this action and play my 50bb stack. There will be better spots than this to get it in.
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Old 02-04-17, 22:23   #6
Bluezar
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Thanks for all the responses on this one - lot of really good points made.

- HectorJelly - Fair point on placing people on hands, perhaps it was wishful thinking on my part but I just felt. Also a very good point on me having position post-flop as the BB will likely C-Bet and i get to see what the other two players do first.

- Colm_leche - IIRC a week later, Max had maybe around 120k. OR and BB both playing marginally below 100k.

Mellor - Similar to Hector, very fair point. Perhaps you are right that if I did have AK, I may have given the OR upto QQ to suit - good learning point for me in future.

PokerPiper - I can understand why this hand may look like this but I can say it was not a tilt or steaming shove. Obviously I have a very playable stack with 50 BB's deep but I just felt it was a potential excellent spot to potentially pick up 35k without seeing a flop. Obviously I was wrong on this occasion but me reasoning was thought out and not a knee jerk reaction to previous hands.

A couple of other people I have spoken to have all given me different answers on how to play this spot. Appreciate your thoughts lads
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Old 03-04-17, 01:47   #7
Nuttkickker
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intresting hand, I think it very ambitious to think you can shove your stack and get everyone to fold as you say 52k to win 35k without showdown but on the flip side of that with the action thats already happened id be worried AQ is crushed by some of the flatting ranges and when you shove 52k given theres 34,100 already in the pot there are 2 players that need to only call 39k to win 84,100 so getting over 2-1 on call so add in the possibilty that were up against a premium hand i think your in a lot of trouble in this spot
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