IPB Hero Our Conor Memorial Thread - (Horses Betting Obv)

[The Situation]

With Elegant Ophelia 25's and Mazij 33's ew. Fairly ironic that the horse to land the megga coup is called Low Key.

[poprock]

With Elegant Ophelia 25's and Mazij 33's ew. Fairly ironic that the horse to land the megga coup is called Low Key.

if stag hill went to 16/1 from 12/1 now, it def ew bet

[horatio1]

this is it - he just didn't decide 6 weeks ago to do this. It is a long time in the making.

FWIW, I am told that both of the Kempton horses were at the course for a gallop 10 days ago.

How much and in what way do you think he got on? The overnight markets are notoriously hard to get substantial cash taken on.

[wicklowp]

Backed none of them but roared the last one home as if my life depended on it, it's simply brilliant what was done today. Once the second one won Nick Luck and Dave Yeats (newsboy in the mirror) tried their best on RUK to make it out to be the greatest injustice that racing had ever seen, trying to weigh up the ethics of form book v skulduggery.

Give me skulduggery every time. This was simply ingenious as to how it was planned and carried out. Fair fucks to all involved and Mr Curley is a total and utter superstar.

[theshortstack]

Anyone know a site where i can get prices for Cork on Sat?

[Raoul Duke III]

I have backed Midnight Sequel to win the 5.55 at Kempton tomorrow night, hosed in last week and will defy the penalty tomorrow.

Get in.

drifted like a barge

ran like one too

did something else happen today?

[Raoul Duke III]

Very interesting bumper in Gowran tomorrow. No doubt Black Hercules will be all the rage but I was very taken with Tyner's horse at Cork and will look to back him e\w (assuming the race stays at 8 runners).

Get in.

[horatio1]

Anyone know a site where i can get prices for Cork on Sat?

Friday evening will be earliest if a hcap, sat am if not.

[amberleaf]

How much and in what way do you think he got on? The overnight markets are notoriously hard to get substantial cash taken on.

Was thinking yesterday morning why they hit the overnights as i would think they would have got a lot more on at bigger prices at say 11am in the b & m bookmakers,turns out it was a very smart thing to do.

[Wesley Harms]

That Galmoy hurdle is a brutal race, Jennie's Jewel surely would have had a belter of a chance

[Strewelpeter]

That Galmoy hurdle is a brutal race, Jennie's Jewel surely would have had a belter of a chance

Well, on paper she's a full 8 pounds worse with Zaidapour than she was with Rule The World though having said that if Zaidapour flops it will be fairly vomit inducing.

I can't figure out why Mouse and O'Leary avoided this race for RTW when the world hurdle was always their plan It would seem they think that the Naas race was a better prep for 24F at cheltenham or perhaps they think that Elliots horse has the winning of this one.

[Strewelpeter]

RTW form when going Right Handed 12P4 - which included maiden hurdle and a bad 4th of 5. Left Handed 112121 - the 2nd places were in Grd1 races. Horse is significantly better left handed.

That in a nutshell is why I'm an el Busto mug and GAB is wearing charvet shirts and lunching in Shannahans every other day

The way the Galmoy played out I don't think anyone will be too concerned with the what if's.

[FeetMagic]

Hearing good things about Coup de Grace in the next at Kempton.

[amberleaf]

anybody looking to nick some value in The Boylesports Hurdle tomorrow will do worse than the 25/1 EW on The Game Changer with Ladbrokes. Otherwise Gilgamboa at 12/1 EW with 5 places with PP/Boyles also standing out to me.

Any fear that Trans City winning the 8.15,noticed a change of tactics last time with job on board,looks a very handy mark this evening.

[Silver-Tiger]

I will be going to the Aintree festival on Friday April 4th.

Would we be o.k paying at the gate or should we pre book tickets?

[elbows]

Talbot Road 2.50 in Leopardstown tomorrow

[poprock]

745 dundalk tonight Cool Athlete 16/1 ew Corals
A tough 1m mile handicap, but has bottom weight of 8-7 with
Wayne Lordan taking the ride. This race has plenty of pace with front runners and Cool Athlete likes to come from of the pace and loves to bustle with other horses as seen when wining under CD with shane kelly who is currently off making oil money in meydan wining with Jamesie yesterday another Daivd Marnane horse,

[westlife]

I will be going to the Aintree festival on Friday April 4th.

Would we be o.k paying at the gate or should we pre book tickets?

The "basic" tickets sellout quicker than GN day...... It's ladies day, and every orange person in Liverpool will be going. Lads will be suited, booted and wearing their finest number 1 haircut and the"ladies" will be dressed to a minimum ..... irrespective of the weather.... all baying for tickets....Get them early. You will pay over the odds at the track!

[Pat Mustard]

How can Double Ross not be lumpage material tomorrow. Am I missing something? Will the rise in weights stop him?

[Percy007]

Tomorrow is all about Big Bucks....... 11/10..... time to punt like a man I think.

[theshortstack]

John Kielys Reizovic is expected to run a big race tomorrow in the 3:25 in Leo, 16/1.

[The Situation]

Anyone else get a text from Paul Nicholls every Saturday morning?

[FeetMagic]

Anyone else get a text from Paul Nicholls every Saturday morning?

Usually Friday night.

[careca]

anybody looking to nick some value in The Boylesports Hurdle tomorrow will do worse than the 25/1 EW on The Game Changer with Ladbrokes. Otherwise Gilgamboa at 12/1 EW with 5 places with PP/Boyles also standing out to me.

Some man.

[Percy007]

[TonyCascarino]

Brutal ride. Fair enough, he may have needed the run, but he still should have won the race. The horse was good enough to need the race and still win.

[NoRiverRequired]

Will make my way to Leopardstown tomorrow looks like a good days racing.
Gilt Shadow is a bet at 9/2 imo, run in Royal bond too bad to be true never settled at all,reckon it'll bounce back here.

7's about Tabhactach is good enough for another spin for me. Claimer means hes off same weight as lto when fell at last while clear, shouldn't be far away.
Probably side with defy logic to pip Felix but might leave the wallet away for that one.

[The Situation]

Does anyone know if Gordon Elliot's No More Heroes goes to Chelts?

[Raoul Duke III]

Will make my way to Leopardstown tomorrow looks like a good days racing.
Gilt Shadow is a bet at 9/2 imo, run in Royal bond too bad to be true never settled at all,reckon it'll bounce back here.

7's about Tabhactach is good enough for another spin for me. Claimer means hes off same weight as lto when fell at last while clear, shouldn't be far away.
Probably side with defy logic to pip Felix but might leave the wallet away for that one.

Sucked in by current blue skies myself. No strong opinions really on the card, Elliott's in the 3.10. See the Fly once more and hope OC has come on for the run. Doubt it's a day for front runners so will probably look to take on Defy Logic. Mallowney e/w to sneak a place.

Staying dry will count as a win imo

[NewApproach]

Sucked in by current blue skies myself. No strong opinions really on the card, Elliott's in the 3.10. See the Fly once more and hope OC has come on for the run. Doubt it's a day for front runners so will probably look to take on Defy Logic. Mallowney e/w to sneak a place.

Staying dry will count as a win imo

Non runner in that race has robbed it of much of the betting interest unfortunately.

[Raoul Duke III]

Non runner in that race has robbed it of much of the betting interest unfortunately.

Ah, missed that. ty

Hot port in Fillies obv.

[elbows]

Mozoltof and gilt shadow double for me. Agree about defy logic and fy wont like the ground.

[rounders123]

Im on Defy Logic with confidence. Underated horse. If Champagne Fever won as he did in that race at Lepoardstown and Defy Logic wasnt running he would be 4/6 today.

EDIT: Load of Shite.

[poprock]

He just means felix yonger

[Raoul Duke III]

Ugh. Mallowney was running a huge race at 25s when he tipped up.

[Raoul Duke III]

Ugh. Mallowney was running a huge race at 25s when he tipped up.

Fuck that second last. Back to Baloo repeats the dose when jumping well in front.

[Dice75]

Sone excitement here in the pub jumping the last. Great stuff.

[Percy007]

What a horse the Fly is and a great run from OC

[The Situation]

Not sure what we learn from that tbh.

[Raoul Duke III]

Not sure what we learn from that tbh.

Captain Cee Bee finishing so close up would make you wonder. Would be happy enough holding OC vouchers at 9\1 all the same.

Moonlight Lad to continue the run

[The Situation]

Captain Cee Bee finishing so close up would make you wonder. Would be happy enough holding OC vouchers at 9\1 all the same.

Moonlight Lad to continue the run

Think I'd be tempted by 5/4 for a British trained winner of the CH.

[Wesley Harms]

Not sure what we learn from that tbh.

Only thing is however the race is run Hurricane Fly will beat those horses around Leopardstown every day of the week

[Raoul Duke III]

Moonlight Lad to continue the run

Ruby Walsh is on a mission to kill me. He was 20\1 turning in.

[amberleaf]

Captain Cee Bee finishing so close up would make you wonder. Would be happy enough holding OC vouchers at 9\1 all the same.

Moonlight Lad to continue the run

Think I'd be tempted by 5/4 for a British trained winner of the CH.

Hard to tell, but the times look very solid on paper at least for this years Irish champion hurdle on todays going.

2014/Soft to Heavy/3m. 53.00 secs
2013/Soft to Heavy/4m. 5.10 secs
2012/Soft (Heavy after 2nd race)/4m. 5.10 secs
2011/Soft/3m. 52.10 secs
2010/Soft to Heavy/3m. 58.00 secs
2009/Soft (Heavy in places)/4m. 3.40 secs
2008/ Soft (Yielding in places)3m. 50.30 secs
2007/Soft/3m. 58.80 secs
2006/Yielding to Soft/4m. 0.20 secs
2005/Heavy/4m. 8.40 secs
2004/Yielding to Soft/3m. 49.50 secs

Good to see the improvement in oc,should be more to come,6/1 with pp not the worst e/w bet.

[premierstone]

Amber those times are completely irrelevant and offer no insight into the quality of todays race, apart from anything todays race was ran on the inside track and then of course you have to factor in the pace CCB set today, what the ground actually was compared to the official announcement, there really is no value in comparing times especially not over a number of years, if you could get accurate sectionals they would be a far better analysis and even at that they are limited.

FWIW I thought it was a great performance by Hurricane and he has shown as he did many times against Solwhit that he is so adaptable and can basically win anyway you want him to.

[Raoul Duke III]

Ruby Walsh is on a mission to kill me. He was 20\1 turning in.

just watched it again

more like 120\1 turning in. How the fuck did he win from there, superhuman shit.

The win in the Hcap chase was nearly as bad although at least I had the consolation of not having backed the second. The two horses I took out of today were Moonlight Lad and Sir Abbott.

[NoRiverRequired]

just watched it again

more like 120\1 turning in. How the fuck did he win from there, superhuman shit.

The win in the Hcap chase was nearly as bad although at least I had the consolation of not having backed the second. The two horses I took out of today were Moonlight Lad and Sir Abbott.

Hes some pilot alright how many times has he done that?
Thats the second time ive been stung with that Tabhactach, hes getting expensive to follow!

Great crowd there today, and Hurricane fly got the reception he deserved after the race.

[The C Kid]

Hard to tell, but the times look very solid on paper at least for this years Irish champion hurdle on todays going.

2014/Soft to Heavy/3m. 53.00 secs
2013/Soft to Heavy/4m. 5.10 secs
2012/Soft (Heavy after 2nd race)/4m. 5.10 secs
2011/Soft/3m. 52.10 secs
2010/Soft to Heavy/3m. 58.00 secs
2009/Soft (Heavy in places)/4m. 3.40 secs
2008/ Soft (Yielding in places)3m. 50.30 secs
2007/Soft/3m. 58.80 secs
2006/Yielding to Soft/4m. 0.20 secs
2005/Heavy/4m. 8.40 secs
2004/Yielding to Soft/3m. 49.50 secs

Good to see the improvement in oc,should be more to come,6/1 with pp not the worst e/w bet.

Quickpick Vic is clearly Istabraq then.

[The Situation]

Out of the 6 sub four minute Irish CH times there, only HF in 2011 went on to win the Champion Hurdle wheras two of the 5 four minute plus times (HF 2013/ Brave Inca 2006) went on to win at Chelts. 3 of Istabraqs Irish Champion hurdle wins were slower than 4 mins too. In 2000 he won in 3.48 and pulled up at Chelts heh.

[Percy007]

I read something interesting tonight about the times, I'll see if i can find it again.

Just a quick point to make you aware.

Be very careful with the times of races as as they are renowned for messing around with the rails and distances of races in Ireland and do not tell the public as was pointed out this week in the RP by Tony Keenan.

Over Christmas on the chase track at Leopardstown over the shorter distances they were breaking the track records even though the going was yielding-soft.

It was blatantly obvious they had moved the rails by some yards but they do not have to declare it and it didnt.

It is a big discrepancy in Ireland and one many fall victim off if not aware of it.

[amberleaf]

both oc & hf to finish in the top 5 in the champion hurdle(nrnb obviously)....odds?

[amberleaf]

both oc & hf to finish in the top 5 in the champion hurdle(nrnb obviously)....odds?

well?

[Starvin Marvin]

well?

2/9.

6th in the betting could end up being a 50/1 shot.

[Wesley Harms]

Out of the 6 sub four minute Irish CH times there, only HF in 2011 went on to win the Champion Hurdle wheras two of the 5 four minute plus times (HF 2013/ Brave Inca 2006) went on to win at Chelts. 3 of Istabraqs Irish Champion hurdle wins were slower than 4 mins too. In 2000 he won in 3.48 and pulled up at Chelts heh.

Istabraq won the 2000 Champion Hurdle

[The Situation]

Istabraq won the 2000 Champion Hurdle

So he did, prob should have used a source instead of relying on memory there . Overall point remain that using time analysis in these races isn't exactly an accurate way of proving future results.

[amberleaf]

2/9.

6th in the betting could end up being a 50/1 shot.

Even the 2/9 could be too big a price come march

So he did, prob should have used a source instead of relying on memory there . Overall point remain that using time analysis in these races isn't exactly an accurate way of proving future results.

I agree,time analysis on its own is fairly useless,but i do use them as part of a general makeup of a race,including nh races.The 3m. 53.00 secs in yesterdays race,at least in comparison to past ich suggests to me that it was a true run race,well Jezki couldnt live with them,also think its the first time i've seen oc jump a hurdle in the full heat of battle and is still zero mistakes from jumping.Still reckon yesterdays race will turn out to be rock solid but we wont know for sure until march.

[NewApproach]

Amber, if it was a truly run race how do you explain CCB being beaten 3l? Has he just found masses of improvement aged 13?

[Strewelpeter]

I'd not be as freaked out about the proximity of CaptCB to the other pair as everyone appears to be. He's a 150 horse and he probably ran a bit ahead of that mark in the circumstances of yesterdays race. He didn't go on as fast during the middle third of the race as he had at christmas leaving him in a better position to stay on than he had then, and crucially it also meant that the others did not have to pick up after him from so far out.

There is no excuse for HRI not providing standard distances, sectional times and measured ground conditions.

[Strewelpeter]

Fuck that second last. Back to Baloo repeats the dose when jumping well in front.

I thought he was jumping like a jinnet from half way

[The C Kid]

Even the 2/9 could be too big a price come march





I agree,time analysis on its own is fairly useless,but i do use them as part of a general makeup of a race,including nh races.The 3m. 53.00 secs in yesterdays race,at least in comparison to past ich suggests to me that it was a true run race,well Jezki couldnt live with them,also think its the first time i've seen oc jump a hurdle in the full heat of battle and is still zero mistakes from jumping.Still reckon yesterdays race will turn out to be rock solid but we wont know for sure until march.

Quickpick Vic, who took four attempts to win a bumper, gave Hurricane Fly 2lbs and a 1.5 second beating over course and distance when winning the opening maiden hurdle. By your reasoning you'd want to start assembling those wheelbarrows, you'll get a fair price for the champion hurdle.