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Old Today, 15:07   #66141
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Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 4,903
Originally Posted by Murdrum View Post
I suspect like Situation said that some are more complex than simple Poisson but this type of calculation is very easy to use.
I wasn't really asking for an explanation of Poisson distribution. I was more wondering how it directly is being used to forecast money lines in games and that it seems a little crude. Just as a very simple example. If after a team scores they tend to sit back, control games and don't over commit to creating chances then this will negatively affect xG. If another team continually attacks and creating chances without much regard for the state of the game then this will positively affect xG. The two teams, when weighted in a more complex system, could have the same EV but looking at pricing the money line with only regard for xG will price them differently?


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