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Old 10-04-17, 04:15   #1
lowkicker
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$1/3 big draw

Hey fellas, have a spot I'm a little unsure of. Would love some feedback..

It's $1/3 typical fishy, passive casino cash game. Opens have been anywhere from x5 to x7. I'm quite new to the table with ~$330, and have no history with villian who has about $500.
I raise LJ to $11 with Ad8d. 3 callers (C/O, SB and BB).
Flop comes 2h5d7d and after the blinds check, I c-bet $25. C/O who people have made reference to about being such a nit raises to $70. I call.
Turn comes 6h and now I check. He bets $100 into $184 and I ship it, $150 or so more for him to call.
I considered just calling but then what, check-fold a blank river after putting over half my stack in? Seems weak.
Given villian's confidence and bet sizing, I figure his range is highly weighted towards flopped sets as the only 2 pair I could really give him credit for is 67 suited but imo he's more likely to just flat in position there.
I block one of the only 2 combos of OESFDs (6d8d). The OESD seems unlikely also, unless he decided to get funky with 6s8s or 6c8c. So really, I'm beating nothing except air and best I can hope for is to be against top pair with random kicker or overpair to make my 8 and/or ace live. I know I have little fold equity shipping on turn but again, felt that check-calling and then check-folding river with such a big portion of my stack in would be too weak.

Thoughts?
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Old 10-04-17, 04:44   #2
Hectorjelly
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What does weak mean? Evaluate your options based on the expected value of the action rather than a pejorative meaningless adjective. For example, in this hand lets pretend that you caught a glimpse of your opponents cards and saw he had a set. Is it profitable to call his turn bet? Yes, of course it is. And its much better than shoving because you can check fold when you miss, and he is going to pay you off a lot of the time on the river when you improve.

Sometimes the most +EV play (actually quite often) would be branded "weak" by some players. Those players are clueless. Getting people to put money into the pot with weak holdings is a crucial part of poker, and checking accomplishes that a lot better than betting.

On the flop checking behind is a lot better, but once you bet I would just get it in. You never know what nits will fold, he could have some small overpairs that he might fold, worse draws etc etc.
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Old 10-04-17, 05:53   #3
lowkicker
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Thanks for the reply HJ.

By "weak", I mean easy to exploit. I don't want to just flat my big draws and fold when I miss as I feel that's super easy to expose.

Of course I agree that calling turn is +EV. So do you think best line is to 3bet jam the flop, or check-call turn and check-fold river? I feel like both are fine. Probably edging more towards the former as on flop like this, I'm highly likely to continue with my bluffs and value hands this way, so playing a much more balanced range.

I was oop so checking back flop isn't an option. Surely if I was in position, this is an ideal flop to c-bet? What value would u place on keeping the pot small?
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Old 10-04-17, 06:39   #4
Mellor
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lowkicker View Post
Thanks for the reply HJ.

By "weak", I mean easy to exploit. I don't want to just flat my big draws and fold when I miss as I feel that's super easy to expose.
Exploitable how?

If you hit, you likely have the nuts and are not folding.
If you miss, you are likely beat and won't put another chip.

It's extremely unlikely that the CO will exploit your hand.
The only possibility is if he is on a draw himself, and bluffs you off the river, which from the description is unlikely on a number of levels.

Pot odds are 3.8 on the turn, meaning you need 26% to be +EV. And 20% with implied odds.
You've 15 outs to the draw on the turn (an unlikely 18 versus a lone pair). But depending on his hand that could be reduced by 1-3. So you are gonna hit maybe 30% of the time. Easy +EV call.

Shoving drops your pot odds to about 2.75, meaning you need over 36%, which you don't have even with 15 live outs. The CO needs to be folding 10-15% of the time to your $150 shove to claw it back to neutral.


Image is important, and you don't want to appear too weak/passive in general. But the marginal differences that will make to your EV over this session is tiny compared to turning a hugely +EV situation into a slight -EV one.

Shoving the turn costs you up to $100 or so.

Quote:
I was oop so checking back flop isn't an option. Surely if I was in position, this is an ideal flop to c-bet? What value would u place on keeping the pot small?
On the flop you were 3rd to act out of 4 players.

Last edited by Mellor; 10-04-17 at 10:16.
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Old 10-04-17, 06:47   #5
Hectorjelly
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lowkicker View Post
I was oop so checking back flop isn't an option. Surely if I was in position, this is an ideal flop to c-bet? What value would u place on keeping the pot small?
Everything Mellor said is spot on. Just on this last bit, this is not an ideal flop to c-bet, its actually a terrible one to cbet. If you check you get a chance to hit a flush for free. You have ace high here so betting doesn't fold out better hands, it folds out hands you have beaten anyway, and gets called by anyone with better (plus a few worse draws).You gain some from denying other people their equity, but then you also deny them the chance to make a good second best hand, ie a guy turns top pair but you make a flush.

You also get put in spots like the one you did where you are forced to put a very large amount of money with nothing.

Hands like 46 or 68, or JT of diamonds are all much better hands to cbet here as you gain a lot from people folding.

There are also a lot of other benefits to checking back, if you are betting this then your check back range contains basically no strong hands. Not that important in a 1/3 game, but something to start thinking about.

In this exact hand it seems likely that the CO would have bet if you checked, so its an easy check call on two streets and then play some poker on the river.

Last edited by Hectorjelly; 10-04-17 at 06:49.
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Old 10-04-17, 17:17   #6
lowkicker
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Cheers for response Mellor. By exploitable, I meant in general and not in this specific hand by only betting when I have it and calling when on draws. But then maybe that's silly as people at the $1/3 level aren't paying too much attention to this. You make a great point on EV in this hand vs session as a whole.

@HJ, when betting this flop, I'm betting to charge weaker draws, along with weak pairs in the blinds that I feel I can get them off in position on later streets depending on board. Also feel like this flop is unlikely to have hit any of the 3 opponents in any big way, so would've been happy to take it down or build the pot before hitting the effective nuts. Unlikely anyone except CO has a bigger ace so it's hard to argue with you but his most likely holdings are Broadway cards imo so like u say, checking back gives him a chance to hit top pair and be drawing dead if it's a diamond. I see merit in both options but definitely inclined to side with you.
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