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**oleras** · 01-01-12, 12:49

Saints -7 and broncos - 3, thoughts ?

**Bubbleking** · 01-01-12, 14:01

Originally posted by oleras View Post

Saints -7 and broncos - 3, thoughts ?

I dont like either for the following reasons:

Saints: they have nothing to play for and their number 1 priority will be to avoid people getting hurt for the playoffs. The Panthers are actually a really decent team in a tough division they know that next year they will be pushing for a playoff spot so there could be jobs on the line tonight resulting in a big effort. Despite all of this the Saints could come out and tear them to shreds because they are in such good form right now.

Broncos: The return of Kyle Orton with a point to prove, to knock the Broncos out of the playoffs and give the 2 finger salute to the franchise that fucked him over. He will definitely be motivated.The God factor is wearing off too so it will be interesting to see how Tebow handles real pressure.

**oleras** · 01-01-12, 15:02

Originally posted by Bubbleking View Post

I dont like either for the following reasons:

Saints: they have nothing to play for and their number 1 priority will be to avoid people getting hurt for the playoffs. The Panthers are actually a really decent team in a tough division they know that next year they will be pushing for a playoff spot so there could be jobs on the line tonight resulting in a big effort. Despite all of this the Saints could come out and tear them to shreds because they are in such good form right now.

Broncos: The return of Kyle Orton with a point to prove, to knock the Broncos out of the playoffs and give the 2 finger salute to the franchise that fucked him over. He will definitely be motivated.The God factor is wearing off too so it will be interesting to see how Tebow handles real pressure.

Good stuff !!

SPOILER

**eagle eye** · 01-01-12, 15:34

There is a lot of gamble involved today as some players will play like its the end of the season but Brees will want to set a record thats hard to beat for passing yards. He beat Marino's record last week but I think he will want to put up 300+ yards this week. Anyways this is who I'm doing in the early games.

Atlanta Falcons -10 10/11
Philadelphia Eagles -8 10/11
New Orleans Saints -7 10/11
Minnesota Vikings -1.5 4/5
Detroit Lions -6 10/11

**White Knight** · 01-01-12, 15:51

I think the Jaguars are a good price against the Colts. The Colts lose the game they get 1st draft pick. No brainer? Jags also on a win streak of 2 so playing with a little form after a poor season.

**eagle eye** · 01-01-12, 16:13

Originally posted by White Knight View Post

I think the Jaguars are a good price against the Colts. The Colts lose the game they get 1st draft pick. No brainer? Jags also on a win streak of 2 so playing with a little form after a poor season.

You are only looking at this from one side. The Jags could potentially have the 3rd pick or the 8th pick depending on results. So I don't think their front office wants the win either.

**White Knight** · 01-01-12, 16:19

Originally posted by eagle eye View Post

You are only looking at this from one side. The Jags could potentially have the 3rd pick or the 8th pick depending on results. So I don't think their front office wants the win either.

Yeah I thought about that. Someone has to win! Jags on form and home advantage with the added incentive for Colts to lose. Pushed it to Jags imo.

**Downtown** · 01-01-12, 16:20

The bets that stand out to me are.

Oakland Raiders -3 at home to the Chargers

Oakland need to win and hope that Tebow's Broncos lose. This seems manageable enough to give the Raiders the incentive to play well and try and reach the play offs. Add to that the Chargers have just suffered bitter disappointment in not making the playoffs. This will carry my big bet.

Jacksonville -3 v Colts
Dont think Orlovosky can do it back to back. Poor Colts team and the consolation of Andrew Luck should they lose might be too much to turn down. Only downside to this bet is that the Jags are possibly the worst team in the league. Gabbart has been atrocious. Cant see many points being scored but can see the Jags edging it by a TD or so.

**ghostface** · 01-01-12, 17:07

Originally posted by eagle eye View Post

There is a lot of gamble involved today as some players will play like its the end of the season but Brees will want to set a record thats hard to beat for passing yards. He beat Marino's record last week but I think he will want to put up 300+ yards this week. Anyways this is who I'm doing in the early games.

Atlanta Falcons -10 10/11
Philadelphia Eagles -8 10/11
New Orleans Saints -7 10/11
Minnesota Vikings -1.5 4/5
Detroit Lions -6 10/11

What do you reckon to the Eagles line now McCoy is out? should still beat that final day at home hopefully. bah I'm on at 8.5, down to 7 now

**Downtown** · 01-01-12, 18:24

Good start for the Jags. Gabbert with a nice TD pass

**Lurker23** · 01-01-12, 19:09

Originally posted by Bubbleking View Post

Broncos: The return of Kyle Orton with a point to prove, to knock the Broncos out of the playoffs and give the 2 finger salute to the franchise that fucked him over. He will definitely be motivated.The God factor is wearing off too so it will be interesting to see how Tebow handles real pressure.

I think Tebow will handle the pressure fine. Found this pretty funny from Simmon's column this week:

There's only one problem with the "Couldn't you see Kyle Orton getting his revenge against Tebow and the Broncos and knocking them out of the playoffs?" scenario. Hold on, I'll let you think about it. Mull it over. I bet you get it.

(Giving you a couple of extra seconds.)

(Twiddling my thumbs.)

And … time!

OK, here's the problem: HE'S KYLE FUCKING ORTON! Have you watched him play????? You've watched him, right? He won six of his past twenty-seven games as Denver's starter. He's the master of the "Just when I thought we had some momentum, I can't believe Kyle threw that pick into triple coverage in the end zone" play. Now he's suddenly Liam Neeson flying to Europe to find his abducted daughter in Taken? We owe the word "revenge" an apology for daring to include it in the same sentence as Kyle Orton. Besides, in the words of Paul Crewe, we've come too far with this Tebow thing to stop now. For Granny, for Nate … for Jesus … let's do it.

**White Knight** · 01-01-12, 20:19

Jared Allen = Sacking Machine. WP

**ghostface** · 01-01-12, 20:45

Need Vikings to pull a td out of their arse and to go for a 2 pt conversion

**Downtown** · 01-01-12, 20:47

Jags got it done now lets hope Raiders do.

Linkage please for Raiders Chargers game?

Thanks

**ghostface** · 01-01-12, 20:49

Originally posted by Downtown View Post

Jags got it done now lets hope Raiders do.

Linkage please for Raiders Chargers game?

Thanks

Bookmark this

http://www.firstrowsports.tv/sport/american-football.html

**ghostface** · 01-01-12, 21:02

Originally posted by ghostface ste View Post

Need Vikings to pull a td out of their arse and to go for a 2 pt conversion

Wow, Vikes QB misses wide open man for interception and ends game. Actually just needed the td to beat the spread

**White Knight** · 01-01-12, 21:39

Packers v Lions.

What.A.Game.

**White Knight** · 01-01-12, 21:46

Originally posted by White Knight View Post

Packers v Lions.

What.A.Game.

Flynn (7th round pick), his 1st start as QB and only the 3rd QB in 20 years for GB throws franchise records all over the shop. Sickness.

**A_CitizenErased** · 01-01-12, 21:48

Originally posted by White Knight View Post

Flynn (7th round pick), his 1st start as QB and only the 3rd QB in 20 years for GB throws franchise records all over the shop. Sickness.

Unbelievable stuff. What a game!

**White Knight** · 01-01-12, 23:52

If Falcons throw away a 42-0 lead I may cry!

**ghostface** · 02-01-12, 00:21

Eagles, Falcons and Saints all good for me today, Vikes weren't. All on Giants??? Fuck it, on the Giants so...

**A_CitizenErased** · 02-01-12, 16:01

Rams fire Spagnuolo.

**Trippie** · 02-01-12, 16:23

Expect a whole host of other changes to be made shortly too

**Downtown** · 02-01-12, 18:32

**Trippie** · 02-01-12, 19:09

Steelers & Saints for sure.

3 weeks ago I would of said the texans will hack up but they just seem to be losing too many people as each week goes by. Bengals are bad too though.

Giants looked great first half and if they play like that again they'll beat the falcons imo but if not then I can see roddy white and Julio Jones doing real well.

Steelers to beat the pats again and play ravens in the division final.

**A_CitizenErased** · 02-01-12, 19:11

@ Downtown.. Thats not right as far as I can tell.

The pats play the lowest seed left in the AFC and same goes for the Packers in The NFC

**Lurker23** · 07-01-12, 19:51

Some random thoughts about the games this weekend.

Bengals @ Texans
I'd be lying if I said I knew much about either of these teams. I've seen the Texans once against the Falcons and haven't seen the Bengals at all so can't comment on them.

Texan's defense is whopper and they have a ridiculous run game plus iirc it's their first playoff game in franchise history. Pity Schaub went down. Yates does seem competent though and Johnson is back for the game.

The one thing I will say about the Bengals is that they have an 0-7 record against the other teams that have qualified for the playoffs. An easy schedule perhaps allowing them to obtain a wildcard? As I said, I don't know but nice to speculate

Texans win outright but I'd take Cincy +4
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Lions @ Saints
Really looking forward to this one. I think it will be closer than people think. Saints won 31-17 in week 13. Lions didn't have Suh or they're free safety Delmas in that game. Furthermore, Kevin Smith was playing really well and then went out injured at half time.

Brees will light it up as usual but Stafford can keep up. Saints were a laughing stock after their loss to the Seahawks this time last year. It won't happen at the Superdome.

Saints win outright but I'd take Lions +10.5
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Falcons @ Giants
I'll try to stay unbiased lol. Which Giants team will turn up is the major question. The one that has been destroying teams the past few weeks or the one that turns the ball over like a hot potato?

Giants have arguably the worst home advantage in the NFL. They're not the most patient of fans up there. I expect Grimes will match up with Cruz and Dunta will cover Nicks. Grimes v Cruz is a wash imo. If Nicks is at 100% and that's a big if, he's better than Dunta. Manningham in the slot will cause all types of problems though especially since he should be finished his knee rehab.

Manning should have plenty of time to throw. Falcons D-line has been disappointing this season. I was expecting good production out of Edwards but he has been a non-factor. Only hope is Abraham heating up on key plays.

Giants will struggle in the run game. Falcons rush defense has been fantastic this year. 3rd best in the league. Bradshaw and Jacobs haven't been setting the world alight either. Watch out for Sean Witherspoon and Curtis Lofton at LB. Both are absolute beasts and have been outstanding all season.

Falcons should have plenty of production out of the passing game. Giants star corner Webster will be on White and I'd expect him to play him well. Major problem for Ross against Jones though. Jones is an absolute beast and Ross is simply not very good. I expect a huge game from Julio. The biggest advantage we have is at TE though. The legend that is Tony Gonzalez will have a huge game. An absolute matchup nightmare for the Giants. The best part is that the Giants will want to have their safeties helping against Julio and White to prevent the big play. This means a LB will have to cover Gonzalez. Good luck with that! Oh and did I mention that in his 15 seasons in the league, Gonzalez has never won a playoff game? How is that for motivation?

The key to the game imo is whether the Giants D-line can wreak havoc against what I'd consider to be a poor Falcon's O-line. If Tuck, Umenyiora and JPP are healthy then it will make for an interesting game. Although, in the final 5 games of the season, Ryan was sacked on just 4 of 176 pass attempts so we are improving in that regard.

I haven't been impressed with Falcon's run game this season. Mugheli at FB was a huge loss earlier in the year. If the Giant's send a ton of pressure that should open up run lanes for Turner but I'm not too optimistic that we'll run the ball well tomorrow.

Now for the biased part, I'm sick of hearing Matty Ice has never won a playoff game blah blah blah. Well, if I'm sick of hearing it imagine how motivated he must be? Add to that the absolute spanking we took on our home turf against Green Bay last year. It's put up or shut up time for my Falcons and I only see one outcome....

Atlanta +3 and outright

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Steelers @ Broncos
Very interesting game.

Will Big Ben be able to extend the play with his scrambling abliity on a bad ankle? Will Tebow be able to throw the ball?

I think Steelers offense will struggle. Mendenhall out is a huge loss. Redman is nowhere near as good. If Big Ben was 100%, I wouldn't be worried for them. I don't see how they score. Denver's pass rush has struggled since Von Miller's thumb ligament injury though.

We know what we're getting from the Bronco's offense. Run run pass or run pass run with perhaps the odd play action pass for good measure downfield to Decker.

Steelers defense is not what it used to be imo. I've seen loads of there games and they just look a step slower than previous years. Except for Polamalu of course.

Polamalu.

I expect a very low scoring game with an upset for the ages. Teboooooow time!

Broncos +9 and outright

**Trippie** · 07-01-12, 20:03

Tebow will be getting raped imo

**ghostface** · 07-01-12, 20:19

Nice post Lurker, think I prefer the -4 on Texans tho, dont think much of Bengals and in Houston think they'll win by at least 7

**A_CitizenErased** · 07-01-12, 20:23

Im taking New Orleans -10.5 for the night.

**eagle eye** · 07-01-12, 21:47

Really fancy the Bengals in the first one. TJ Yates was my binkie in the draft but he has very few games so far and for that reason given the magnitude of this game I don't think he will have a good night. Both teams are pretty mean against the run and I just think that its going to come down to Andy Dalton and his receivers(AJ Green in particular) who I fancy are good enough to put enough points up to win this one.

**Trippie** · 07-01-12, 21:57

Originally posted by eagle eye View Post

Really fancy the Bengals in the first one. TJ Yates was my binkie in the draft but he has very few games so far and for that reason given the magnitude of this game I don't think he will have a good night. Both teams are pretty mean against the run and I just think that its going to come down to Andy Dalton and his receivers(AJ Green in particular) who I fancy are good enough to put enough points up to win this one.

I think it comes down to andre being fit, if he is then I cannot see the bengals being able to stop him, texas will just play action their way up the field along with the 50 million runs between tate and foster

**ghostface** · 07-01-12, 22:05

Foster seems to find it hard to hold onto the ball, nice haircut tho

**Trippie** · 07-01-12, 23:02

JJ Watt has had some season.

I know allen has tonnes of sacks but for influence it has to be between him and Jason Pierre Paul as most impressive defensive players this year

**ghostface** · 07-01-12, 23:03

Some catch

**Mickey Rosa** · 07-01-12, 23:47

Really can't look beyond Steelers tomorrow even with a QB on one leg. I think Steelers defense will snaffle the Choosen One. All that being said 1.26 is a little on the short side and the handicap of 10.5 is a bit too large, will prob just play on the straight bet.

**ghostface** · 08-01-12, 00:17

Originally posted by ghostface ste View Post

Nice post Lurker, think I prefer the -4 on Texans tho, dont think much of Bengals and in Houston think they'll win by at least 7

I should really have placed a bet on that, sigh

**mdoug** · 08-01-12, 00:30

Bengals were shocking tonight, that is all

**A_CitizenErased** · 08-01-12, 00:33

The Lions to win tonight :P

Only messing.

Although, I was saying the same last year and the Seahawks fucked us up.

Gonna be a great game

**eagle eye** · 08-01-12, 01:12

On the over and Nawlins -10.5 in this one. Got out of the last one with a bet on the Texans -14.5 at the end of the third quarter.

**ghostface** · 08-01-12, 01:15

Lions started excellently here. Could be a shoot out, heres hoping. TD already, NO got a defence??

**eamonhonda** · 08-01-12, 02:08

Paddy power had lions at 9/2 before the game thought it was worth a shot but never bothered. Would have been a nice bet for the sweat

**A_CitizenErased** · 08-01-12, 02:09

Originally posted by eamonhonda View Post

Paddy power had lions at 9/2 before the game thought it was worth a shot but never bothered. Would have been a nice bet for the sweat

Dont think Lions will hold onto this lead.

**eamonhonda** · 08-01-12, 02:12

Originally posted by A_CitizenErased View Post

Dont think Lions will hold onto this lead.

Biased opinion from a drew breed avatar haha

**A_CitizenErased** · 08-01-12, 02:15

Originally posted by eamonhonda View Post

Biased opinion from a drew breed avatar haha

Heh Heh.

**eagle eye** · 08-01-12, 17:52

Tonights first game features the 29th(Giants) best pass defense against the 20th(Falcons) best defense, or to put it another way the 4th worst vs the 13th worst.

On the other side of the ball is the 5th(Giants) best passing offense against the 8th(Falcons).

Looking at the run, the Giants were the worst team rushing the ball this year while the Falcons were just in the bottome half. To be fair the Giants did not have Ahmad Bradshaw, their no.1 runner, for a good part of the season and their no.2 went down for a couple of weeks too.

Stopping the run the Falcons were 6th best while the Giants were all the way down in 19th.

Theres a definitie edge for the Falcons in that department but when you take home field advantage into account this game looks like it could go either way.

For me the handicap margin is too small to have a bet because its likely that these teams will score heavily with potent passing attacks against weak passing Ds. I think the Giants running game is better than the stats say because Ahmad Bradshaw is back in good health but the Falcons are mean against the run and I think it evens them out in that department.

What stands out to me though is the over in the game. How on earth they are marking it up at under 50 is beyond me, they have it at 47.5 at the moment and I think the over is maybe the bet of the entire season. If you just looked at the scoring averages for these teams then that is a correct over/under mark but when you look at how weak the passing Ds are and the quality of receiver and QB on show on both sides tonight I don't see anyway this game stays under 60 never mind 50. The receivers I'm talking about are Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks along with TE Jake Ballard and WR3 Mario Manningham for the Giants with Eli Manning, and Matty 'Ice' Ryan who has Roddy White, Julio Jones and the legendary TE Tony Gonzalez to throw to.

**A_CitizenErased** · 04-02-12, 22:40

What are yer bets for The Superbowl lads?

Gonna do mine in the morning. Gonna put some on The Giants for a sweat anyway and then a few interesting ones.

Only a few small wagers for fun myself while having a few beers. First reciever etc..

**eagle eye** · 04-02-12, 23:03

I'm not betting on it at all. Just watching it hoping, while I bite my nails and maybe my fingers when I run out of nail, that the Patriots can avenge the defeat from the '07 season.

I think it will be very close and I'd recommend the under on the points total but I just couldn't bet on it because the outcome of the game means too much to me as a Patriots fan.

**tipp86** · 05-02-12, 14:15

Anyone able to give me the rough idea what price the Giants were at the start of the season?

**AKDonk** · 05-02-12, 14:26

Originally posted by tipp86 View Post

Anyone able to give me the rough idea what price the Giants were at the start of the season?

Can't find the exact price but it appears they were as high as 80-1 in some places at the beginning of the season

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/26/sp...iants-win.html

**A_CitizenErased** · 05-02-12, 14:27

I remember looking at one stage early on in the year and they were 30 something.

**A_CitizenErased** · 05-02-12, 14:34

Just got onto Paddy Power on twitter and this was there reply.

Before the season we'd the Giants at 25/1.The highest price you could've got them was at the end of Nov when they were 50/1

**Loopz** · 05-02-12, 15:06

They were 14/1 two games ago

**Lplate** · 05-02-12, 22:59

Originally posted by eagle eye View Post

I'm not betting on it at all. Just watching it hoping, while I bite my nails and maybe my fingers when I run out of nail, that the Patriots can avenge the defeat from the '07 season.

I think it will be very close and I'd recommend the under on the points total but I just couldn't bet on it because the outcome of the game means too much to me as a Patriots fan.

As a long term Giants fan Flash, I hope you endure a miserable night!

How about a friendly fiver?

**Lplate** · 06-02-12, 03:22

Awesome show from Manning.
Great game.
Drunk.

**Raheny Red** · 09-02-12, 13:49

Originally posted by A_CitizenErased View Post

Just got onto Paddy Power on twitter and this was there reply.

Before the season we'd the Giants at 25/1.The highest price you could've got them was at the end of Nov when they were 50/1

50s at the beginning. And the highest they were during the regular season was 66/1. This is according to the RP last weekend anyway.

**MrPillowTalk** · 10-02-12, 00:24

Should probably quit NFL betting after that season 4 losers out of 22 bets, sustainable form?

**Bubbleking** · 28-02-12, 13:31

line should be closer to tullamore -20 @ 5/6

empty the clip and when you've finished epmtying the clip you find some more ammo and fire that too, Massive edge here

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/americ...x-3506229.html

**Micknail** · 28-02-12, 13:51

Any basis or info on this BK?

**NewApproach** · 28-02-12, 13:55

Cheers BK, but as expected pretty miserable max bets

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