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    Originally posted by jack90210 View Post
    Huge poll shift in the Sunday Independent poll today 45% for, 34% against and 18% don't know and 4% refused to say.

    Feb 2018 it was 63% for and 24% against and 13% undecided.

    Poll also showed more women are against repeal than men.
    By your logic above, the poll from the Sunday Independent shows only 0.34% of people are against..... (or whatever the actual correct number is based on total polled as a portion of the voting electorate)

    Comment


      Originally posted by jack90210 View Post
      That is very wrong.
      You'll have to explain to me how the statistical significance of the same percentage of an entire population varies by the size of that population.

      Clue: in both cases you are polling the entire population.
      Turning millions into thousands

      Comment


        Originally posted by Ed View Post
        By your logic above, the poll from the Sunday Independent shows only 0.34% of people are against..... (or whatever the actual correct number is based on total polled as a portion of the voting electorate)
        Everyone knows are at least should know they are polls of a sample of the population. We actually discussed a few weeks ago their inaccuracies. The way Dr Boylan presented his poll was all obstetricians were asked.

        Comment


          Originally posted by Strewelpeter View Post
          You'll have to explain to me how the statistical significance of the same percentage of an entire population varies by the size of that population.

          Clue: in both cases you are polling the entire population.
          I am not going to discuss statistical sampling as its complex topic but trust me its not the same.

          Comment


            Originally posted by jack90210 View Post
            Well with a population of 200 in the whole country I don't think statistically that's a sufficent response to draw accurate conclusions on the total population.
            So... 200 OBGYNs in the country and 80 responded? Massive sample size!

            Sample size of 1000 is enough to model (decently) general election with a potential voter pool in the millions.

            Yes.. this is how this works.
            May you live in interesting times!

            Comment


              Originally posted by jack90210 View Post
              The lie is saying 80% of obstetricians agree with abortion when in fact it is 32% are, 8% aren't and 60% we have no idea.
              So an overwhelming majority of respondents are in favor of repeal, in fact 80% or so. Which is the substance of what Dr Boylan stated. The 80% figure isn’t a lie, it’s how all polls are reported. Including the ones you’ve cited.
              You are technically correct...the best kind of correct
              World Record Holder for Long Distance Soul Reads: May 7th 2011

              Comment


                Originally posted by jack90210 View Post
                I am not going to discuss statistical sampling as its complex topic but trust me its not the same.
                Why not? Go on, give us your rationale.
                You are technically correct...the best kind of correct
                World Record Holder for Long Distance Soul Reads: May 7th 2011

                Comment


                  It's problematic as a sample though as its limited to those OBGYNs who would choose to respond to Dr Boylan as he was the one who sent it apparently.

                  It's reasonable I think to assume there'll be a higher incidence of No's amongst those who auto-bin or otherwise ignore survey requests from him.
                  Last edited by ArmaniJeans; 16-05-18, 15:46. Reason: spelling

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View Post
                    It's problematic as a sample though as its limited to those OBGYNs would choose to respond to Dr Boylan as he was the one who sent it apparently.

                    It's reasonable I think to assume there'll be a higher incidence of No's amongst those who auto-bin or otherwise ignore survey requests from him.
                    Conversely if it was entitled “Survey on 8th Amendment” or so forth one could argue that the No group would be more likely to respond to it given the position of the surveyor and therefore they could be over-represented even in the response group.

                    That goes to weighting and I don’t think a survey monkey poll would have such an advanced methodology. It’s a very basic polling sample but that doesn’t invalidate it. The margin of error would be offset by the relatively large sample size surely?
                    You are technically correct...the best kind of correct
                    World Record Holder for Long Distance Soul Reads: May 7th 2011

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View Post
                      It's problematic as a sample though as its limited to those OBGYNs would choose to respond to Dr Boylan as he was the one who sent it apparently.

                      It's reasonable I think to assume there'll be a higher incidence of No's amongst those who auto-bin or otherwise ignore survey requests from him.
                      That could just as easily be the other way around, but the point is that closed groups like this are not useful for drawing inferences about statistical significance and population size. Not because of the size but because of the nature of the group.
                      Turning millions into thousands

                      Comment


                        ...
                        "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                          fwiw statistically about 30 sample size is enough to accurately guage a population unless it's a weird sampling style which this isn't. Most stats assume that 30 is enough. Can't remember the name of the stats rule exactly but want to say it's the central limit theorem.
                          Reading the posts central limit theorem came to mind. Mean of a normal distributed sample taken from a normally distributed population with mean "mew" and variance sigma^2.
                          Sample becomes more bell shaped as random variables are added etc.
                          As you say things get difficult with skewed distributions etc.
                          Under a sample of 30 you're getting into student t-distribution but at a sample of this size relative to the population(question is randomness of course) it should be fairly representative of the underlying population.

                          That'll be 5/5 marks thank you

                          Comment


                            McHughs is a very good offie in that they always have a stable stream of Helles and other top rank German beers and great wines. But I dont like the vibe in there for the last year or more.
                            Theres one guy there who looks like Shakespere who started a couple years back and he was selling his own craft beers in the shop(still might be) but he has the air of judgement about him the whole time re what your buying.
                            I think there is a battle for top spot going on with the guy with the slight English lilt.
                            The straw that broke the camels back was when they started pulling up the shutters at 12.35 Sunday instead of 12.30 which is maddening when you pull in 12:28 and need to be back for the 1pm Navan. So a self imposed 4 month ban on the place went into effect some time back. I was able to overlook the overly wet floor(far to wet and a smelly water bucket too like there is a battle of wills going on to see who changes the water, both parties holding out valiantly at the expense of the customers nostrells. So I was really looking for another excuse after this before imposing thee ban because im a fair guy like that.

                            Comment


                              ...
                              "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                              Comment


                                ...
                                "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                Comment


                                  Originally posted by eamonhonda View Post
                                  That's my view. You need to respect it. And no name calling haha!

                                  Joking aside I see where youre coming from, but Jack isn't a good example due to the content of his posts and the hate driven agenda that comes with it. People are passionate and this is a massive referendum that really means a lot to women and people surrounded by women. It's gonna boil over now and then. No harm someone getting told to fuck off now and then, they'll get over it.
                                  Muchas for this post.

                                  You're the goodest of eggs Eamo.
                                  I hold silver in tit for tat, and I love you for that

                                  Comment


                                    Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                    Sent that to Brian on the WhatsApp group we have (anonymized obv - no user name) and he asked me to thank you.
                                    If he knew I was FRM, he could guess in 3 attempts given the number of Irish.

                                    I enjoyed his class to be fair, open book exam makes a lot of sense and should be used more imo.

                                    Comment


                                      ...
                                      "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                      Comment


                                        Originally posted by Lazare View Post
                                        Muchas for this post.

                                        You're the goodest of eggs Eamo.
                                        Appreciate that mate, likewise fo sho
                                        airport, lol

                                        Comment


                                          Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                          Ah no I kept it very vague - only my username shown. Did the open book thing this year for first time except it was open everything - mobile, laptop etc. Just put a restriction that no-one was allowed to plagiarise from any source.
                                          Good idea, hopefully its used more elsewhere. I did look around at some people who brought in an actual book which seemed crazy.
                                          Brian hasn't really changed his exam in years except for some slight tweaks. 10 of us just met up, split up the work based on his past exam papers, all wrote a question or collaborated on a longer question, collated it and brought in a copy each.
                                          Everybody gets through it unscathed with a fraction of the work.

                                          Comment


                                            Hmm she quotes the law correctly but she says she went to UK in 2016. Giving her at most very late November 2016 to still be eligible also she must currently intend to return home within that 18 month period (at this stage her plans should be quite clear for the next month or so). Quite likely electoral fraud https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-...tion-1.3497457

                                            Comment


                                              Originally posted by jack90210 View Post
                                              Hmm she quotes the law correctly but she says she went to UK in 2016. Giving her at most very late November 2016 to still be eligible also she must currently intend to return home within that 18 month period (at this stage her plans should be quite clear for the next month or so). Quite likely electoral fraud https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-...tion-1.3497457
                                              Electoral fraud or not (I’m not getting into the argument), I fail to see how any rational person could think there is anything more than a minuscule likelihood of people traveling to Ireland to vote having an impact on the final referendum result.

                                              Comment


                                                Originally posted by NewApproach View Post
                                                Electoral fraud or not (I’m not getting into the argument), I fail to see how any rational person could think there is anything more than a minuscule likelihood of people traveling to Ireland to vote having an impact on the final referendum result.
                                                The 15th Amendment was decided by just over 9,000 votes it could be that tight.

                                                Comment


                                                  Originally posted by jack90210 View Post
                                                  The 15th Amendment was decided by just over 9,000 votes it could be that tight.
                                                  Shouldn't the travelling home crew have roughly the same breakdown of yes/no as the people living here. I can't see how it's possible it would matter.
                                                  airport, lol

                                                  Comment


                                                    Originally posted by eamonhonda View Post
                                                    Shouldn't the travelling home crew have roughly the same breakdown of yes/no as the people living here. I can't see how it's possible it would matter.
                                                    I would just like to see integrity in the vote.

                                                    Comment


                                                      ...
                                                      "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                      Comment


                                                        Originally posted by jack90210 View Post
                                                        Hmm she quotes the law correctly but she says she went to UK in 2016. Giving her at most very late November 2016 to still be eligible also she must currently intend to return home within that 18 month period (at this stage her plans should be quite clear for the next month or so). Quite likely electoral fraud https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-...tion-1.3497457
                                                        My non-cynical opinion is that having read a lot of the discussions you have been involved in is that although I think your infatuation with the #hometovote has reached a point of complete ridiculousness at this stage, I recognise the balance of sharing an article of #HometoVoteNo potentially "breaking the law".

                                                        On the other hand my more cynical opinion is that you're fully aware that #HometoVote is more likely to be primarily Yes voters.
                                                        That immediately raises my suspicions that preventing a No voter like the person in this article from voting would merely be collateral damage, as preventing the #homethevote campaign in its entirety would be far more advantageous for the No side, in turn leading to what would be a big win for the No side.

                                                        Comment


                                                          Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                          Surely people making the decision to travel home will want to change things?
                                                          Ya of course but I was more thinking from jacks perspective who believes there's a lot more no voters out there than we do. The home to vote crew will be close to 100 percent yes voters in my opinion. And fair play to them.
                                                          airport, lol

                                                          Comment


                                                            Comment


                                                              Originally posted by brady23 View Post
                                                              My non-cynical opinion is that having read a lot of the discussions you have been involved in is that although I think your infatuation with the #hometovote has reached a point of complete ridiculousness at this stage, I recognise the balance of sharing an article of #HometoVoteNo potentially "breaking the law".

                                                              On the other hand my more cynical opinion is that you're fully aware that #HometoVote is more likely to be primarily Yes voters.
                                                              That immediately raises my suspicions that preventing a No voter like the person in this article from voting would merely be collateral damage, as preventing the #homethevote campaign in its entirety would be far more advantageous for the No side, in turn leading to what would be a big win for the No side.
                                                              Well I was trying to show balance by showing the above in that it can harm both sides. Also people should bare in mind maybe it favours your opinion this time and so you dont care but really we should be playing the long game with the integrity of our elections.

                                                              Comment


                                                                Originally posted by jack90210 View Post
                                                                I would just like to see integrity in the vote.
                                                                ...Whatever the outcome of the vote, will you agree with the decision...Not that you agree with the decision, but how the decision came about...Like Trump with the presidential election...

                                                                Comment


                                                                  Originally posted by jack90210 View Post
                                                                  Hmm she quotes the law correctly but she says she went to UK in 2016. Giving her at most very late November 2016 to still be eligible also she must currently intend to return home within that 18 month period (at this stage her plans should be quite clear for the next month or so). Quite likely electoral fraud https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-...tion-1.3497457
                                                                  If only we'd had an expert legal professional come on here and explain what the situation really is
                                                                  Turning millions into thousands

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    Originally posted by jack90210 View Post
                                                                    The 15th Amendment was decided by just over 9,000 votes it could be that tight.
                                                                    How much of a swing, in terms of absolute numbers, do you think people flying to Ireland from elsewhere who fall foul of the relevant conditions of the Electoral Act will have?

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      Originally posted by luckforsome View Post
                                                                      ...Whatever the outcome of the vote, will you agree with the decision...Not that you agree with the decision, but how the decision came about...Like Trump with the presidential election...
                                                                      I will accept the decision but will be committed to another vote as soon as possible and it been at the fore of every general election campaign. Gut feeling is Yes wins at about 55% of the vote. If no loses we are going to have a huge proportion of the population really really upset with the main parties we could see the rise of a true social conservative force in Ireland. Don't get the President Trump comparsion.

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        Originally posted by NewApproach View Post
                                                                        How much of a swing, in terms of absolute numbers, do you think people flying to Ireland from elsewhere who fall foul of the relevant conditions of the Electoral Act will have?
                                                                        Hard to say but if for example eamonhondas prediction of near 100% vote yes it could swing low five figures.

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          All I ever remember when it comes to the t-distribution is it was developed by a lad who worked in Guinness in Dublin and published under the pen name 'Student'.

                                                                          Another researcher at Guinness had previously published a paper containing trade secrets of the Guinness brewery. To prevent further disclosure of confidential information, Guinness prohibited its employees from publishing any papers regardless of the contained information. However, after pleading with the brewery and explaining that his mathematical and philosophical conclusions were of no possible practical use to competing brewers, he (William Sealy Gosset) was allowed to publish them, but under a pseudonym ("Student"), to avoid difficulties with the rest of the staff.
                                                                          Happiness is not a goal; it is a by-product. ~Eleanor Roosevelt

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            Originally posted by jack90210 View Post
                                                                            Well I was trying to show balance by showing the above in that it can harm both sides. Also people should bare in mind maybe it favours your opinion this time and so you dont care but really we should be playing the long game with the integrity of our elections.
                                                                            I highlighted both my cynical and non-cynical thoughts on you sharing that article.
                                                                            You must realise at this stage Jack that your reputation precedes you when it comes to deciphering your true feelings on a topic.

                                                                            Comment


                                                                              Originally posted by jack90210 View Post
                                                                              Hard to say but if for example eamonhondas prediction of near 100% vote yes it could swing low five figures.
                                                                              So you reckon there'll be over ~10,000 flying home to vote who also aren't eligible to do so, they'll all vote yes, and the vote will be carried by less the aggregate number of people travelling to Ireland to vote who aren't eligible to do so. Quite a series of events

                                                                              As an aside, what proportion of those who are travelling here to vote are you assuming aren't eligible?

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                Originally posted by jack90210 View Post
                                                                                I will accept the decision but will be committed to another vote as soon as possible and it been at the fore of every general election campaign. Gut feeling is Yes wins at about 55% of the vote. If no loses we are going to have a huge proportion of the population really really upset with the main parties we could see the rise of a true social conservative force in Ireland. Don't get the President Trump comparsion.
                                                                                ...Cheers for answer...The Trump part was the fact he came out and said "I will accept the result, if I win"...

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  Originally posted by NewApproach View Post
                                                                                  So you reckon there'll be over ~10,000 flying home to vote who also aren't eligible to do so, they'll all vote yes, and the vote will be carried by less the aggregate number of people travelling to Ireland to vote who aren't eligible to do so. Quite a series of events

                                                                                  As an aside, what proportion of those who are travelling here to vote are you assuming aren't eligible?
                                                                                  I didn't say that. I've no idea how the vote would break down maybe they will all vote no and it will swing the other way. I just want the integrity of the system to be maintained.

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    Originally posted by jack90210 View Post
                                                                                    I didn't say that. I've no idea how the vote would break down maybe they will all vote no and it will swing the other way. I just want the integrity of the system to be maintained.
                                                                                    That's grand but there's a difference between a lack of integrity which could actually affect the result and a notional 'lack of integrity' (distinct from an innocent oversight) that will almost certainly have no bearing on the result whatsoever.

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                      Originally posted by NewApproach View Post
                                                                                      That's grand but there's a difference between a lack of integrity which could actually affect the result and a notional 'lack of integrity' (distinct from an innocent oversight) that will almost certainly have no bearing on the result whatsoever.
                                                                                      Disagree fully with this.

                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                        ...Duck all the useless chat...Lads, is it Yanny or Laurel FFS...
                                                                                        Log into Facebook to start sharing and connecting with your friends, family, and people you know.

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                          ...
                                                                                          "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

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                                                                                            Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                                                            @brady our WhatsApp chat has now descended into whether Adam from Man Vs Food is either the greatest or second greatest person alive, so I guess your identity is safe for now.
                                                                                            I'm curious who is competing with him for top spot. Any more of my lecturers in the chat??

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                              Originally posted by jack90210 View Post
                                                                                              I would just like to see integrity in the vote.
                                                                                              No, you wouldn't. You just need every excuse possible ready in case your vote ends up on the losing side.

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                Originally posted by jack90210 View Post
                                                                                                Disagree fully with this.
                                                                                                OK, so you don't see a difference between an series of events which has a bearing on the eventual outcome of the vote, and a series of events which has no such bearing?

                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                  Originally posted by jack90210 View Post
                                                                                                  I will accept the decision but will be committed to another vote as soon as possible and it been at the fore of every general election campaign.
                                                                                                  You can't say all of these things in one sentence and expect to be taken seriously.Edit to say if Yes is carried you can stick a fork in it, it'll be well and truly done and dusted, all the pissing and moaning in the world won't cause a turn.

                                                                                                  Originally posted by luckforsome View Post
                                                                                                  ...Duck all the useless chat...Lads, is it Yanny or Laurel FFS...
                                                                                                  https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...01857486959603
                                                                                                  Laurel FFS!

                                                                                                  I have to ask how you got yourself invited to a gangbang. You said 50 couples,you mentioned before you're single yeah? Did you and a fuck buddy team up?
                                                                                                  No one else asked so I will!
                                                                                                  Last edited by darwinatemyhamster; 16-05-18, 19:49.

                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                    ...
                                                                                                    "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                      Originally posted by NewApproach View Post
                                                                                                      OK, so you don't see a difference between an series of events which has a bearing on the eventual outcome of the vote, and a series of events which has no such bearing?
                                                                                                      So he's technically correct....

                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                        Originally posted by luckforsome View Post
                                                                                                        ...Duck all the useless chat...Lads, is it Yanny or Laurel FFS...
                                                                                                        https://m.facebook.com/story.php?sto...01857486959603
                                                                                                        Even though I know from reading about it that it is actually Laurel, it is definitely Yanny to my ears, and my wife's.

                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                          I'm on the yes side despite the OTT name calling and overreaction by middle aged men with sand in their gee. I've seen people called scum for merely saying they are voting NO. wtf. Obviously not enough to change my mind but enough for me to understand how other undecided voters might. Pity I won't be here to vote but sure I'm confident of a YES... In the last week it's time to mobilise the young yes voters and stop with the pointless angry debate, too late. Get out and vote and get your younger friends to do likewise. Better use of your energy


                                                                                                          BBC4 now is quite good

                                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                                            Originally posted by Mike Bullocks View Post
                                                                                                            I'm on the yes side despite the OTT name calling and overreaction by middle aged men with sand in their gee. I've seen people called scum for merely saying they are voting NO. wtf. Obviously not enough to change my mind but enough for me to understand how other undecided voters might. Pity I won't be here to vote but sure I'm confident of a YES... In the last week it's time to mobilise the young yes voters and stop with the pointless angry debate, too late. Get out and vote and get your younger friends to do likewise. Better use of your energy


                                                                                                            BBC4 now is quite good
                                                                                                            I got called a fucking murderer today, my first day with my repeal badge.

                                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                                              Originally posted by darwinatemyhamster View Post


                                                                                                              Laurel FFS!

                                                                                                              I have to ask how you got yourself invited to a gangbang. You said 50 couples,you mentioned before you're single yeah? Did you and a fuck buddy team up?
                                                                                                              No one else asked so I will!
                                                                                                              ...Lol...I was hearing Yanny for about an hour, now I'm heading Laurel, pissing me off...
                                                                                                              ...oh and no...So there are about 200 people going...50 couples, then 50 single men (one of which is me), and 50 women... it'll be good crack...,€13 a ticket, lots of drinks specials as well...It's actually looking like a really good weekend...Have a 1st date on Sunday , and potentially a 4th date with someone on Friday...Ended up with a spare Ed Sheeran ticket, so think I'm gonna ask the girl I had been seeing...

                                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                                Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View Post
                                                                                                                I got called a fucking murderer today, my first day with my repeal badge.
                                                                                                                ...If the badge was made of Fur then they're not wrong m8....

                                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                                  ...
                                                                                                                  "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                                    Originally posted by Mike Bullocks View Post
                                                                                                                    I'm on the yes side despite the OTT name calling and overreaction by middle aged men with sand in their gee. I've seen people called scum for merely saying they are voting NO. wtf. Obviously not enough to change my mind but enough for me to understand how other undecided voters might. Pity I won't be here to vote but sure I'm confident of a YES... In the last week it's time to mobilise the young yes voters and stop with the pointless angry debate, too late. Get out and vote and get your younger friends to do likewise. Better use of your energy


                                                                                                                    BBC4 now is quite good
                                                                                                                    My wife has Yes badges on her bag, in Aldi last week she was called a 'baby murdering bitch' by a guy in his late fifties I'd guess.
                                                                                                                    It goes both ways.
                                                                                                                    I can estimate his age as he didn't realise she was alone, he realised fairly fucking sharpish. The prick tried to justify his comments as 'emotions getting the better of him' once he realised he wasn't free to bully a woman on her own.


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                                                                                                                      im just taking a stroll


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                                                                                                                        Originally posted by darwinatemyhamster View Post
                                                                                                                        My wife has Yes badges on her bag, in Aldi last week she was called a 'baby murdering bitch' by a guy in his late fifties I'd guess.
                                                                                                                        It goes both ways.
                                                                                                                        I can estimate his age as he didn't realise she was alone, he realised fairly fucking sharpish. The prick tried to justify his comments as 'emotions getting the better of him' once he realised he wasn't free to bully a woman on her own.


                                                                                                                        «
                                                                                                                        Did you smash him with a 49 cent bargain fruit bag.

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                                                                                                                          Originally posted by ArmaniJeans View Post
                                                                                                                          I got called a fucking murderer today, my first day with my repeal badge.
                                                                                                                          Originally posted by darwinatemyhamster View Post
                                                                                                                          My wife has Yes badges on her bag, in Aldi last week she was called a 'baby murdering bitch' by a guy in his late fifties I'd guess.
                                                                                                                          It goes both ways.
                                                                                                                          I can estimate his age as he didn't realise she was alone, he realised fairly fucking sharpish. The prick tried to justify his comments as 'emotions getting the better of him' once he realised he wasn't free to bully a woman on her own.


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                                                                                                                          You must both be lying as everyone knows it is only the yes side doing things like this, which is a perfectly acceptable reason to sway to a No vote and makes total sense.

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