Football-betting thread

[The Situation]

Would be except they're very underpriced on first goalscorers - Ronaldo only 3/1 compared to 9/2 elsewhere for example.

They were best price on Benzema earlier so I've got him and Sanchez both at 7's. Wouldn't usually bet on FG but with Messi's goal record it makes it very low risk and +ev.

[Keane]

They were best price on Benzema earlier so I've got him and Sanchez both at 7's. Wouldn't usually bet on FG but with Messi's goal record it makes it very low risk and +ev.

Yeah would definitely have gone for it if I'd been on when the prices were better

[Keane]

They're best price on Iniesta alright, will stick a tenner on it for the gas...

[gunnaflip]

lot of bad prices for football these days. forces you to pick far too many teams

[Loopz]

lot of bad prices for football these days. forces you to pick far too many teams

that would be greed doing that.

[CheckRaise]

lot of bad prices for football these days. forces you to pick far too many teams

Your main problem is probably that you only bet on the premier league which is not the best league to bet on at the best of times and especially if your standard bet is

Man Utd
Man City
Chelsea
Arsenal
Tottenham
Barcelona
Read Madrid

€10 accumulator




At first look the only thing that appeals to me is overs in the Norwich-Chelsea game and even at that the value is only marginal.

Look further afield if you want to make a bit of money.

[Semibluff]

anyone actually want to talk about football here, whats a good bet and why?

Awful lot of drowl putting people off posting probably

[Semibluff]

any opinions on arsenal game? surely united are getting a little too short for that game?

[Keane]

any opinions on arsenal game? surely united are getting a little too short for that game?

Jamie Redknapp thinks it's going to be a draw, and he's literally an expert.

[CheckRaise]

any opinions on arsenal game? surely united are getting a little too short for that game?

I'm thinking about going both teams to score and with major defensive absences on both sides I don't think either can close up shop.

Probability of BTTS or overs is higher imo with the current home/away fixture.

Recent form points to a high scoring game but I think the BTTS is slightly more EV than the higher odds for over 2.5.

[The Situation]

I'm thinking about going both teams to score and with major defensive absences on both sides I don't think either can close up shop.

Probability of BTTS or overs is higher imo with the current home/away fixture.

Recent form points to a high scoring game but I think the BTTS is slightly more EV than the higher odds for over 2.5.

Yep have BTS myself.

Wouldn't be mad about the Arsenal price SB. Arteta is a big loss in the middle, they struggled to retain possesion last week without him and with Willshire still out they've nobody to suitably fit that deep lying midfielder role. Ramsey is struggling of late too. United have Smalling and Jones
back which will obv strenghten them a bit. No bet for me.

Gonna lay QPR ~evs. Only the 1 win at home this season so far. Wigan have a full strength squad to pick from. QPR without Tarrabt and Traore who are at the ANC and arguably their best player this season Faurlin out injured. Gabbidon a doubt at CB too. Martinez's side are more used to a relagation battle having been in similar positions last couple of seasons so experience could be crucial in this battle. QPR also fielded a full stength team in the cup midweek so have less recovery time, albeit only a day. You'd think the new manager factor would be a bonus for QPR but they were very poor against Newcastle last week and could only scraped past MK Dons midweek with an unconvincing display. I'd make them about a 2.3 shot here.

[CheckRaise]

anyone actually want to talk about football here, whats a good bet and why?

Awful lot of drowl putting people off posting probably

Semi I recall you asking for people to PM you their way of analyzing the 2.5 goals market and you were going to combine these opinions and PM each of the people back but you must have forgotten. Can you post your findings in the thread or the other peoples opinions that were shared with you?

[Dice75]

Yep have BTS myself.

Gonna lay QPR ~evs. Only the 1 win at home this season so far. Wigan have a full strength squad to pick from. QPR without Tarrabt and Traore who are at the ANC and arguably their best player this season Faurlin out injured. Gabbidon a doubt at CB too. Martinez's side are more used to a relagation battle having been in similar positions last couple of seasons so experience could be crucial in this battle. QPR also fielded a full stength team in the cup midweek so have less recovery time, albeit only a day. You'd think the new manager factor would be a bonus for QPR but they were very poor against Newcastle last week and could only scraped past MK Dons midweek with an unconvincing display. I'd make them about a 2.3 shot here.

I didnt think QPR were too bad up at Newcastle tbh. Worked very hard & kept Newcastle to 1 shot on target I think. I also think SWP will come good under Hughes & dont think Tarrabt has been starting much anyway. Wigan will come to frustrate but I can see QPR nipping a lead which wont be difficult to hold.

[The Situation]

I didnt think QPR were too bad up at Newcastle tbh. Worked very hard & kept Newcastle to 1 shot on target I think. I also think SWP will come good under Hughes & dont think Tarrabt has been starting much anyway. Wigan will come to frustrate but I can see QPR nipping a lead which wont be difficult to hold.

It was a very weakened Newcastle team though which has to be considered. QPR started well but showed very little urgency or ambition once they went behind and imo never looked like equalising.

Being the second half of the season and both of them in the relegation zone it's going to be a very nervy affair, especially for QPR playing in front of their fans where they've only won once this season against a 9 man team for half a game, and these pressures are new to a lot of their squad unlike Wigans.

[KK82]

Pretty sure Mark Hughes is a slow starter when he takes over a new team also.. My mate was telling me last week he waw gonna stick a few quid on QPR due to the new manager bounce factor, but I warned him off it. He's never won his first game in charge at a club and I think when he took over Blackburn they got thrashed in his first two games in charge. Pretty sure he'll come good when he gets some players in, but laying them this weekend is certainly better than backing them.

[CheckRaise]

Pretty sure Mark Hughes is a slow starter when he takes over a new team also.. My mate was telling me last week he waw gonna stick a few quid on QPR due to the new manager bounce factor, but I warned him off it. He's never won his first game in charge at a club and I think when he took over Blackburn they got thrashed in his first two games in charge. Pretty sure he'll come good when he gets some players in, but laying them this weekend is certainly better than backing them.

I'm not sure how useful that information is in analyzing a bet. Its more a case of the fringe players trying to stake a claim so each team would be different rather than the manager imo.

[Semibluff]

Semi I recall you asking for people to PM you their way of analyzing the 2.5 goals market and you were going to combine these opinions and PM each of the people back but you must have forgotten. Can you post your findings in the thread or the other peoples opinions that were shared with you?

thanks to those who did get on to me

my lack of maths background made compiling a model too tough. Had intended to attempt it but didnt

Not may place to share others pm's to me, maybe they'll contact you if you ask or they see this

Yeh agree Re QPR.

Hope i dont have to back arsenal!

On bayern tonight pretty big (minus riberry) and blackburn and liverpool tomorrow.

[CheckRaise]

OK, I will give the modelling a go. One of the people I live with is an actuary so he will be fairly clued in to this.

If people have an aspect of the 2.5 goals market that they find hold true and indicate value or a way of analyzing the market and are willing to share, send me a PM and I will try and combine the different aspects and will send a PM back to anyone who shared useful information with the finished product.

[tglynn]

Any thoughts on a City, United and Liverpool treble?

[The Situation]

Any thoughts on a City, United and Liverpool treble?

Did you see in the bbv earlier that Boyles are enhancing that out to 10/1 at some stage tomorrow, decent bet at those odds, otherwise at normal odds meh.

*****

Just as aside I'm amazed by the lack of media talk about the City Spurs game, it all seems to be focused on Arsenal United and Henry/Scholes side-plots. I know which game I'm looking forward to more.

[CheckRaise]

On bayern tonight pretty big (minus riberry) and blackburn and liverpool tomorrow.

I am very impressed with bayern this season but I wouldn't be backing them odds on, away from home, against a team who has conceded 2 goals in last 5 games, one of which they beat Koln 5-0.

Munich have already lost to Mainz (14th) and Hannover (7th) away.

Also, Monchengladbach have not lost at home so far this season.

Bayern have not played a league match in over a month.

[The Situation]

Thought Monchengladbach sold Reus, turns out he isn't leaving till the summer. Kid could be the breakthrough star in the Euros this summer.

[tglynn]

Did you see in the bbv earlier that Boyles are enhancing that out to 10/1 at some stage tomorrow, decent bet at those odds, otherwise at normal odds meh.

*****

Ya saw that alright, that's the reason i'm thinking of lumping on it, just wanted to know what people thought if it as a bet without odds if you know what i mean Worth a bet regardless of the odds/enhanced odds?

[coillcam]

On Celtic, Chelsea and Stoke for interest @4/1

[Semibluff]

PP are money back if an african nations game finishes 0-0. up to 100e. on goalscorer bets or correct scores

Its a ridic low scoring tournament, of shite standard imo. So if you can get scorecasts close to bf line which are in games with very low goal expectancy (ie mali guinea later) then backing 1-1 1-0's is good value.

Worth keeping an eye on ^^

Also, boyles are ht/ft cardiff at 2/1 when its 182/188 bf at the moment. which is a decent edge too (limited to a certain amount and only in the shop)

PP are doing in shop chelt offers. Today they went evens on Big Bucks for a few minutes (not sure how long even). I think theyre doing 2 a day, for those who live in shop, or have a spare day/contact to someone who does. These are prob limited to 100/200e bets, but worth a look anyways

[The Situation]

Opinions on tonights game? Liverpool look very short at 4/11 to qualify. Possibility that this could mean more to them and Anfield will definitely be rocking but there's still a massive gulf in class between sides and City should go with strong team with no game this weekend.

[Wesley Harms]

Opinions on tonights game? Liverpool look very short at 4/11 to qualify. Possibility that this could mean more to them and Anfield will definitely be rocking but there's still a massive gulf in class between sides and City should go with strong team with no game this weekend.

Laying the 1.45 and shorter for as much as I possibly can.

[davepoke/her]

It's unlikely Bellamy will start either and he's pretty much our only goal threat at the moment.

[Terry Phelan]

Anybody like Sengal at 7/10? Were poor against Zambia in losing 1-2 but surely the gulf in class is too big against the hosts Equatorial Guinea in what is a must win game for Senegal?

[Keane]

Anybody like Sengal at 7/10? Were poor against Zambia in losing 1-2 but surely the gulf in class is too big against the hosts Equatorial Guinea in what is a must win game for Senegal?

As Semibluff said above, there's decent value to be had in the correct score markets so if you fancy them maybe look to back 1-0, 2-0 results or something along those lines IMO.

[Opr]

I know these stats tend to mean very little in the context of a match like tonight but something to chew on for the layers.

bensmithTimes Ben Smith
Tough task for #MCFC tonight. #LFC have never lost a two-legged tie after winning the first leg away from Anfield

Opr

[Dice75]

I know these stats tend to mean very little in the context of a match like tonight but something to chew on for the layers.

bensmithTimes Ben Smith
Tough task for #MCFC tonight. #LFC have never lost a two-legged tie after winning the first leg away from Anfield

Opr

Small sample size i'd say

[Guest]

Small sample size i'd say

One of the largest sample size in European football id say

but fairly meaningless in a current context all the same

[The Situation]

Small sample size i'd say

Yeah and I say rarely in that sample have they been so inferior to their opposition like they are with City tonight especially without Suarez and Lucas.

[Flushdraw]

I know these stats tend to mean very little in the context of a match like tonight but something to chew on for the layers.

bensmithTimes Ben Smith
Tough task for #MCFC tonight. #LFC have never lost a two-legged tie after winning the first leg away from Anfield

Opr

A few more stats to mull over

• Liverpool will aim to reach the Carling Cup final when they take on Manchester City in the semi-final, second leg at Anfield on Wednesday night. Here are all the need-to-know pre-match stats courtesy of Ged Rea.
  
  
• This is Liverpool's 14th semi-final, equalling the record held by Arsenal.
  
• It is their first since 2004-05 when they beat Watford 1-0 home and away with Steven Gerrard scoring the only goal of each meeting. The Reds skipper has now scored in three successive legs of a League Cup semi-final - each time Liverpool winning 1-0.
  
• Steven Gerrard's appearance in the first leg in Manchester was his first start in the League Cup since he scored against Cardiff in October 2007.
  
• Liverpool have won this trophy on a record seven occasions, the last being in 2003 when they defeated Manchester United 2-0 in Cardiff. They are looking to extend their record by appearing in an 11th final.
  
• The Reds have won their last three semi-finals - Crystal Palace (2001), Sheffield United (2003) and Watford two years later.
  
• Liverpool have won nine of the last 11 League Cup semi-finals they have contested. The last team to beat them at this stage was Middlesbrough in 1998.
  
• The last top-flight team to beat Liverpool at this stage was Queens Park Rangers in 1986.
  
• The Reds have an excellent record at Anfield in the semi-final of this competition having not lost any of the 13 games played - winning eight of them.
  
• On all four previous occasions Liverpool have scored a goal in an away first leg game in this competition they have gone on to lift the Cup - 1981, 1982, 2001, 2003.
  
• The Reds have scored in all 13 of their previous home legs at the semi-final stage of the League Cup.
  
• Of Liverpool's last nine games in the League Cup this is only their second at home. Their visit to the Etihad was their fifth away game in succession in the competition - their most ever in the League Cup.
  
• Liverpool have played in five penalty shoot-outs in the League Cup, losing twice - to Wimbledon in 1993 and Northampton at Anfield in 2010.
  
• In major competitive games the Reds have lost two of 12 shoot-outs.
  
• The Reds have never lost a two-legged tie in any competition after winning the first leg away from home. They have returned to Anfield with a lead 38 times including six occasions in the League Cup.
  
• Liverpool have scored in 42 of the last 43 League Cup games - only failing to hit the net during that time at Chelsea in December 2007.
  
• The Reds have used 24 players in this season's five League Cup games with Pepe Reina and Jay Spearing the only men to start them all.
  
• Liverpool are aiming to become the 11th current Premier League team to play at the 'new' Wembley.
  
• Kenny Dalglish could, if Liverpool win this trophy, become only the third manager after Alex Ferguson and Jose Mourinho to win all three major domestic English trophies - Premier League, FA Cup and League Cup.
  
• Liverpool's last two-legged semi-final in any competition saw them go out of the Europa League on away goals to Atletico Madrid in 2010 - though they did win the second leg at home.
  
• That is the only time they have been eliminated in the last six semi-finals that have been decided at Anfield.
  
• Craig Bellamy has scored five goals in his last five starts for the Reds.
  
• The Reds have not lost two games in a row since September.
  
• City have won both of their games since the first leg (at Wigan and home to Tottenham) while Liverpool have drawn at home to Stoke and lost at Bolton.
  
• This will be City's seventh semi-final - they have won two and on two occasions have gone on to lift the trophy.
  
• In 1970 they beat Manchester United 4-3 on aggregate and went on to beat West Brom in the final.
  
• They defeated Plymouth 3-1 over 2 legs in 1974 but lost the final to Wolves 2-1.
  
• Two years later they beat Middlesbrough 4-1 on aggregate and overcame Newcastle 2-1 in the Wembley final.
  
• City lost in the last four to Stoke in 1963-64, Liverpool in 1981 and two years ago lost 4-3 on aggregate to Manchester United after winning the first leg at home 2-1. Carlos Tevez scored all three of City's goals.
  
• Roberto Mancini has faced Liverpool over two legs once before as a manager.
  
• His Inter Milan side lost 3-0 on aggregate to the Reds in the last 16 of the Champions League in 2008.
  
• Only Stefan Savic has started all of City's League Cup games this season.
  
• City have taken part in two League Cup penalty shoot-outs. They lost to Blackpool in 1997-98 and beat Brighton in 2008-09.
  
• City have won only two of the last 42 visits to Anfield in all competitions.
  
• Only two of the 25 teams to have won away in the first leg of a League Cup semi-final previously have failed to reach the final - West Ham were knocked out by Stoke in 1971-72 and Tottenham went out to Arsenal in 1986-87.
  
• James Milner and Stewart Downing were teammates in the Aston Villa side that lost in the final to Manchester United 2 years ago - Milner scoring an early penalty.
  
• City have won two of their last six away games in all competitions and in that time have scored four goals.
  
• If City wish to reach the final without the aid of a penalty shoot-out they will need to score at least twice in an away game for the first time since November 5 when they won 3-2 at QPR.
  
• Referee Phil Dowd took charge of Liverpool's quarter-final win at Chelsea in November. He has taken charge of three clashes between the Reds and City - Liverpool have yet to win though they did draw both previous Anfield fixtures.
  
• Liverpool's record in the League Cup: Pld 210 Won 126 Drawn 42 Lost 42
  
• Scorers this season (League Cup in brackets):
  
• Liverpool: Suarez 8 (3), Bellamy 7 (1), Carroll 4 (1), Gerrard 4 (1), Maxi 4 (2), Adam 2 (0), Skrtel 2 (0), Downing 1 (0), Henderson 1 (0), Johnson 1 (0), Kelly 1 (1), Kuyt 1 (1), Shelvey 1 (0), own goals 3 (0).
  
• Man City: Aguero 17 (1), Dzeko 14 (2), Balotelli 12 (1), A. Johnson 6 (1), Silva 6 (0), Nasri 4 (1), Y. Toure 6 (0), Kolarov 3 (0), Kompany 2 (0), Milner 3 (0), Lescott 2 (0), Barry 1 (0), Hargreaves 1 (1), Richards 1 (0), Savic 1 (0), own goals 2 (0)

[Semibluff]

hope your right! on city and barce

[CheckRaise]

It sounds like ye think the 2/1 with bet365 on city to qualify is huge value?

[Donk Magnet]

liverpool/barca double 7/2
mancity/barca double 4/1 (both with ladbrokes)

surley barca wont slip up @ home to madrid and there isnt a draw in the other game.
so is there any sense in having say 100 on each double.

1st 7/2 returns 450
2nd 4/1 returns 500
so if all goes to plan min profit of 250? or is this just a stupid idea?

[Guest]

liverpool/barca double 7/2
mancity/barca double 4/1 (both with ladbrokes)

surley barca wont slip up @ home to madrid and there isnt a draw in the other game.
so is there any sense in having say 100 on each double.

1st 7/2 returns 450
2nd 4/1 returns 500
so if all goes to plan min profit of 250? or is this just a stupid idea?

lot of ifs in that bet imo

[CheckRaise]

liverpool/barca double 7/2
mancity/barca double 4/1 (both with ladbrokes)

surley barca wont slip up @ home to madrid and there isnt a draw in the other game.
so is there any sense in having say 100 on each double.

1st 7/2 returns 450
2nd 4/1 returns 500
so if all goes to plan min profit of 250? or is this just a stupid idea?

barca just need a draw to qualify.
liverpool will defend with everything they have. there is the potential for them to keep a clean sheet but city will probably break them down.

Combined odds of 2.37 don't appeal that much assuming you are betting an equal amount on both doubles.

[The Situation]

Would gave preferred to see Aguero start but I'm sure they'll introduced him earlyish 2nd half if needed.

[Opr]

Delighted with no Carroll and Bellamy up front. Praying to god Henderson is not on the wing and he starts with the three in midfield.

Opr

[CheckRaise]

Senegal match pushed back an hour. Any news?

[CheckRaise]

Delighted with no Carroll and Bellamy up front. Praying to god Henderson is not on the wing and he starts with the three in midfield.

Opr

Liverpool Twitter:


Tonight's team v City - Reina, Johnson, Agger, Skrtel, Enrique, Gerrard, Henderson, Adam, Downing, Kuyt, Bellamy

[A_CitizenErased]

Andy Carroll is 6/1 to score the first goal tonight. For those who don't understand odds, that means if you bet €10 you will lose €10

[Wesley Harms]

Andy Carroll is 6/1 to score the first goal tonight. For those who don't understand odds, that means if you bet €10 you will lose €10

Actually you will get a refund most likely if a goal is scored before he gets on, if he gets on

[CheckRaise]

any stream for the carling cup match?

[Donk Magnet]

any stream for the carling cup match?

Try firstrowsports usually very good

[Percy007]

Andy Carroll is 6/1 to score the first goal tonight. For those who don't understand odds, that means if you bet €10 you will lose €10

Should you not credit where you took that from?

[CheckRaise]

Should you not credit where you took that from?

LOL

http://www.google.ie/#sclient=psy-ab&hl=en&source=hp&q=Andy+Carroll+is+6%2F1+to+score+the+first+goal+tonight.+For+those+who+don't+understand+odds%2C+that+means+if+you+bet+%E2%82%AC10+you+will+lose&pbx=1&oq=Andy+Carroll+is+6%2F1+to+score+the+first+goal+tonight.+For+those+who+don't+understand+odds%2C+that+means+if+you+bet+%E2%82%AC10+you+will+lose&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&gs_sm=e&gs_upl=1322l2761l1l3008l4l0l0l0l0l0l0l0ll0l0&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.,cf.osb&fp=9949b6c5360666f0&biw=1280&bih=933

Had a look at the BBV earlier

[A_CitizenErased]

LOL

http://www.google.ie/#sclient=psy-ab&hl=en&source=hp&q=Andy+Carroll+is+6%2F1+to+score+the+first+goal+tonight.+For+those+who+don't+understand+odds%2C+that+means+if+you+bet+%E2%82%AC10+you+will+lose&pbx=1&oq=Andy+Carroll+is+6%2F1+to+score+the+first+goal+tonight.+For+those+who+don't+understand+odds%2C+that+means+if+you+bet+%E2%82%AC10+you+will+lose&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&gs_sm=e&gs_upl=1322l2761l1l3008l4l0l0l0l0l0l0l0ll0l0&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.,cf.osb&fp=9949b6c5360666f0&biw=1280&bih=933

Had a look at the BBV earlier

Been trending on twitter all day.. not a big deal really.

[Percy007]

No shit

[A_CitizenErased]

No shit

Lay the fuck off man.

This isnt the first time youv jumped onto the bandwagon of giving me shit. Give it a break.

Cheers

[Percy007]

Lay the fuck off man.

This isnt the first time youv jumped onto the bandwagon of giving me shit. Give it a break.

Cheers

Hahahaha you have a serious complex kid

[A_CitizenErased]

Hahahaha you have a serious complex kid

There was no need for the comment in the first place.

As I said, its not the first time you feel you need to get a cheap dig in and all I said was quit it.

[Percy007]

Everytime someone posts after you, you think they are having a "dig" or a "cheap shot" man up ffs, I honestly feel for you.

[A_CitizenErased]

Everytime someone posts after you, you think they are having a "dig" or a "cheap shot" man up ffs, I honestly feel for you.

I feel like they are having a dig or a cheap shot? Read your comment there bud.

Its not half obvious that you were having a go off me, so quit trying to make it out as if im being paranoid again. Iv been clearly wrong before on here before due to other things but when you are going to make cheap digs constantly, I notice them.

[Percy007]

You are paranoid. Yaaaaaaaaaaaawn ive had enough young lad, use ignore if it bothers you that much.

[A_CitizenErased]

You are paranoid. Yaaaaaaaaaaaawn ive had enough young lad, use ignore if it bothers you that much.

You quoted my text, therefor your making no sense.

No bother, threw you on it now.

[KevIRL]

Lay the fuck off man.

This isnt the first time youv jumped onto the bandwagon of giving me shit. Give it a break.

Cheers

Yawn. Again with the uber defensive and poor me stuff.

Report a post in future if you have an issue with it please. This sort of post is certain to derail threads