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    Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
    I haven't ever put in a cent to cryptos so you can all point and laugh at me when you're squillionaires. I have however been working closer to the bone in finance than nearly all of you guys and, to me, the words of Mr Money Mustache make a lot of sense.
    This is actually a better article than the condensed one in the guardian, it's what the one in the guardian is based on.
    Well, shit. I’ve been watching this situation for a few years, and assuming it would just blow over so we wouldn’t have to talk about it here in this place where we are supposed to be b…


    I can kinda see where he is going but I dont necessarily agree with him


    On buffet:
    Gold gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.
    People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
    Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
    https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21

    Comment


      ...
      "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

      Comment


        99% of the coins will explode into nothingness, there's one currently worth billions (Cardano) that is nonsense? Ripple is an absolute farce (perhaps moneygram can change that). Yet I bought some, because whether it works in the end doesn't matter for now.

        A friend of mine made 100k a week or two ago just by playing the news around Tron. It's just stupid.
        However there is so much value there, people are part of pumps and dumps, play rumours, etc etc, take out your initial investment and still have portfolios running for free. If it comes to a crashing end make sure you don't have so much in there that will affect you is all I will say.

        I imagine any problems with economy/FIAT will be the big breaking point for a crash, people will mass sell.
        Last edited by Tar.Aldarion; 15-01-18, 15:07.

        Comment


          Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
          fwiw he's talking about fundamental value, which is different to trading value. Things can go up even if they are overvalued, and often do, as momentum takes over the market. Robert Shiller (while not a blogger of Mr Moustache renown ) got a Nobel Prize for pointing this out using a vast history of American stock market bubbles. Its absolutely fine and usually a good idea to buy into a bubble, as long as you recognise you might be in a bubble and have a good exit strategy. E.g. this famous paper notes that hedge funds reacted to the dotcom bubble by jumping straight in and profiting from the continued upward movement. The difference between them and the ordinary dotcom saps was they knew they were in a bubble and quit the market just before it collapsed.
          Just like the banks exited the CDO market before it coll...oh wait.
          "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

          Comment


            Originally posted by Tar.Aldarion View Post
            99% of the coins will explode into nothingness, there's one currently worth billions (Cardano) that is nonsense? Ripple is an absolute farce (perhaps moneygram can change that). Yet I bought some, because whether it works in the end doesn't matter for now.

            A friend of mine made 100k a week or two ago just by playing the news around Tron. It's just stupid.
            However there is so much value there, people are part of pumps and dumps, play rumours, etc etc, take out your initial investment and still have portfolios running for free. If it comes to a crashing end make sure you don't have so much in there that will affect you is all I will say.

            I imagine any problems with economy/FIAT will be the big breaking point for a crash, people will mass sell.
            I think that's a healthy enough attitude Tar. As long as you can maintain that rational outlook, which very few people ever caught up in a speculative bubble ever have.

            Can I interest you in some DukeCoins by the way?
            "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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              I can see real world applications for DENT & LEND

              The market is in a huge pump and dump cycle as whales tear apart the market so I'm holding and may even go in again .
              I've not got a chance day trading so will happily sit on my shitcoin
              People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
              Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
              https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21

              Comment


                ...
                "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                Comment


                  ...
                  "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                  Comment


                    Anyone want to offer odds that BTC will suffer a >50% downswong in 2018?

                    (that's any peak to trough movement in 2018 by the way, so if BTC starts at 20k, hits 8k and recovers to 10 zillion, I win)
                    "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                    Comment


                      ...
                      "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                        Anyone want to offer odds that BTC will suffer a >50% downswong in 2018?

                        (that's any peak to trough movement in 2018 by the way, so if BTC starts at 20k, hits 8k and recovers to 10 zillion, I win)
                        Seems like a strange bet. You mean if it hits $24k, drops to $12k, and is back to the moon you win? So people would be betting purely against volatility.

                        I just bought Funfair crypto tonight. Crypto x online gambling world = more gambool. And the founder created Starfox which I loved playing on the N64 back in the day.

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                          ^^^ That's the kind of reasoning I can get behind!


                          Still think I'll take those Duke Coins if they are still going, has a good ring to it.


                          Also new place to go mad (and give me sweet referral) https://www.kucoin.com/#/?r=7rdPJJ
                          Last edited by Tar.Aldarion; 15-01-18, 21:53.

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                            Originally posted by DeadParrot View Post
                            Kucoin was pretty easy

                            referral link
                            https://www.kucoin.com/#/?r=216x6
                            ^^^ much better obv
                            People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
                            Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
                            https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                              They'd be tiny odds! It doubled in December, so that type of volatility is clearly not unexpected. Maybe 1/10. Might be willing to reluctantly offer 2/1 on it having a 90% downswing.
                              hmmm, no biters

                              well what about it closes 2018 > 50% down on today's price ($13,900)

                              Give us odds for > 75% down

                              and >90% down too pls
                              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                ...
                                Last edited by Hitchhiker's Guide To...; 15-01-18, 23:38.
                                "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

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                                  Accepting all bets on the positive side of a 100% increase v 100% decrease

                                  Comment


                                    ...
                                    "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                    Comment


                                      Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                      hmmm, no biters

                                      well what about it closes 2018 > 50% down on today's price ($13,900)

                                      Give us odds for > 75% down

                                      and >90% down too pls
                                      Ha, if someone had taken you up on your offer last night you'd be 10% of the way there already!


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                                        Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                        We could do (me going long):

                                        0-50% drop vs 0-50% rise: €300 to the winner
                                        50-75% drop vs 50-75% rise: €400 to the winner
                                        >75% drop vs >75% rise: €500 to the winner

                                        And to stave off the inevitable end-of-year charitable giving, we could maybe say the first €100 of any winnings goes to good deeds with the remainder being cash for the best good deeds of all - the winner.
                                        lol, no (although respect for the attempt).

                                        I simply want odds against the 31-Dec BTC price being <50, <70 and <90% lower than $13,900.

                                        Given that these scenarios pretty much represent total collapse, I'd be expecting some juicy quotes!
                                        "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                          If those bets were in the spirit of RD's original request you could both win.

                                          If they're 'who can pick the bubble burst' then maybe not.

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                                            ...
                                            "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

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                                              Cup of tea, toast, and 43% overnight price decline in my largest coin holding - that's how I like to start my day.

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                                                I placed buy orders on a few (ICX, VEN, NAV, FUN) this morning @-10% of 7am price. They were filled and all are rebounding now. Madness.

                                                Even NEO dropped from 175 to 130 and I snow back up to 150

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                                                  At last a bit of swongs - up to now my foray into alt coins had been duller than buying ETFs and making AVCs.

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                                                    Any idea what caused the latest plunge?
                                                    "I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson

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                                                      Every coin falling at once overnight? Institutional meddling.

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                                                        Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                        ah right, maybe I didn't word it well. Meant for end of the year price. But it seems Raoul just wants someone to offer him mug odds on something thats extremely likely to happen.
                                                        If you truly believe in cryptos, then I'm the mug, no?
                                                        "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                                          Originally posted by Tar.Aldarion View Post
                                                          Every coin falling at once overnight? Institutional meddling.
                                                          Aha:

                                                          On Monday, Bloomberg reported that authorities in China were planning to block domestic access to Chinese and offshore cryptocurrency platforms that allow centralized trading. Regulators will also target people and companies that provide market-making, settlement and clearing services for centralized trading, the publication said, citing unnamed sources.
                                                          "I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson

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                                                            Very tempted to go balls deep in the dip.
                                                            People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
                                                            Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
                                                            https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21

                                                            Comment


                                                              You can setup alerts on Coinmarket to let you know when a certain price is breached. I have it setup for NEO@120, XRB@12 and ETH@1000. If i can get in at those prices, i think they could be a worthwhile longer term hold.

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                                                                Based on?

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                                                                  Its amazing how desensitized you are to these things from having played poker. I hadn't been watching the markets and a mate texted me to tell me about crashgate. I looked at the app on my phone to check prices. Meh, and threw it back on the bed.

                                                                  Opr

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    ...
                                                                    "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      Originally posted by Opr View Post
                                                                      Its amazing how desensitized you are to these things from having played poker. I hadn't been watching the markets and a mate texted me to tell me about crashgate. I looked at the app on my phone to check prices. Meh, and threw it back on the bed.

                                                                      Opr
                                                                      100% agree with you on this, I can see how hard it is for non-poker players to jump into cryptos and not be result-oriented based on short term swings.

                                                                      One of the big causes of this correction in my opinion is that many new investors are not used to big swings and are just selling based on emotions (panic?) without looking at the big picture. I can also guess that many probably invested much more than they should have on such a volatile market which makes it harder for them to completely detach emotions from their decisions.
                                                                      "Poker isn’t about default strategies, it’s about exploiting your opponent's bad tendencies"

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                                                                        Serious wholloping today. Wow.
                                                                        "I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson

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                                                                          Originally posted by AndyFatBastard View Post
                                                                          Serious wholloping today. Wow.
                                                                          Welcome to 1999 with bells on it.

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                                                                            Changed my cryptotracker app to USD from GBP to make it feel like I 'lost' less value today.

                                                                            Helped a bit tbh.

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                                                                              Originally posted by AndyFatBastard View Post
                                                                              Serious wholloping today. Wow.
                                                                              Feel like I lost a ton of value here.
                                                                              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                Originally posted by Emmet View Post
                                                                                Changed my cryptotracker app to USD from GBP to make it feel like I 'lost' less value today.

                                                                                Helped a bit tbh.
                                                                                Switched all my charts to show one year worth of data. Looks amazing now.
                                                                                "I can’t find anyone who agrees with what I write or think these days, so I guess I must be getting closer to the truth." - Hunter S. Thompson

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                                                                                  Originally posted by AndyFatBastard View Post
                                                                                  Switched all my charts to show one year worth of data. Looks amazing now.
                                                                                  Kucoin up 911% in a month
                                                                                  People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
                                                                                  Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
                                                                                  https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    Was talking to a friend earlier (guy who got me into cryptos) and he took out his phone and showed me the crypto price charts of January of each of the last four years on one screen. Graphs looked identical.

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                                                                                      Originally posted by hotspur View Post
                                                                                      Was talking to a friend earlier (guy who got me into cryptos) and he took out his phone and showed me the crypto price charts of January of each of the last four years on one screen. Graphs looked identical.


                                                                                      Opr

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                                                                                        Originally posted by ViperEyeIRL View Post
                                                                                        100% agree with you on this, I can see how hard it is for non-poker players to jump into cryptos and not be result-oriented based on short term swings.

                                                                                        One of the big causes of this correction in my opinion is that many new investors are not used to big swings and are just selling based on emotions (panic?) without looking at the big picture. I can also guess that many probably invested much more than they should have on such a volatile market which makes it harder for them to completely detach emotions from their decisions.
                                                                                        What big picture?

                                                                                        If you really want to know why there is big pump and dumps I'd encourage you to read https://www.reddit.com/r/Tether/comm...ncy_of_tether/
                                                                                        TLDR version is since the beginning of Jan '17 there is an exchange called Bitfinex that has been creating Tethers (think USD) out of thin air. This is similar to the federal reserve and quantitative easing apart from they can get away with it as they are the government. Have a look at https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/ since Jan '17. Their market cap was 15 million now its currently 1.5 billion. It's not a coincidence that cryptos have gotten out of control in the past year. They have flooded all crypto markets and brought the general public with them.

                                                                                        You come across as sanctimonious about non-poker players but at least they'll have something to hang their hats on when this all go tits up. You can HODL all you want but there comes a time when you need to cash out. TBH I'm surprised poker players don't see this as a scam as we've seen it all before - UB and their superbots, Full tilt and their pros helping themselves to player funds etc. Anywhere money is to be made the fraudsters will follow. The crypto space is full of scammers and the big whales are manipulating the market. Sure you look like a Gordon Gekko 2.0 when its on an upward trajectory but lets see what happens when their is a run on all these exchanges. There will be no Brian Lenihan stepping in to gtd the deposits.

                                                                                        Like one of the main voices the cryto fanboys talk about as a voice of reason is Litecoin founder Charlie Lee, read about him here https://medium.com/@bitfinexed/coinb...n-be64ead3facc

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                                                                                          just bought some xrp, no weak hands lads.

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                                                                                            Originally posted by Tar.Aldarion View Post
                                                                                            just bought some xrp, no weak hands lads.
                                                                                            Ripple, really. You should be ashamed. I hope you wash your hands

                                                                                            Opr

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                                                                                              Further crashaments overnight I see...11k now
                                                                                              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                                                                                Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                                Further crashaments overnight I see...11k now
                                                                                                It's funny, as soon as I saw you were posting in this thread I knew there must have been a crash.

                                                                                                The schadenfreude is strong. (yes I did Google the spelling).

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                                                                                                  It's still at an ATH from one month ago lol, all the new money

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                                                                                                    Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                                    Further crashaments overnight I see...11k now
                                                                                                    But but but it’s the Asians cashing out to by presents for the lunar new year.....riggghht???

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                                                                                                      Pretty much all the subreddits for crypto are absolute cancer,full of shilling and circle jerks. I swear if bitcoin ever reaches $1 the front pages will be full of “I’m holding ,who’s with me” “don’t listen to the FUD Bitcoin is on sale” and “ bitcoin was at 1$ before on X date and climbed to X so obv it will happen again as past performance is an indicator of future performance “ threads. And anyone who expresses any doubt is dismissed as some kind of stereotypical jewish banker.

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                                                                                                        Originally posted by Slice Of Life View Post
                                                                                                        non-poker players but at least they'll have something to hang their hats on when this all go tits up. You can HODL all you want but there comes a time when you need to cash out. TBH I'm surprised poker players don't see this as a scam as we've seen it all before
                                                                                                        What I meant is that the average recreational poker player theoretically has a much better bankroll management than the average non-poker player and would know not to invest more than 5%-10% max in such a volatile market and therefore short term (or even long term) swings shouldn't affect him much, whether a lot of non-poker player look at this as a quick way to get rich and would end up losing much more money that they could afford (I have heard of people borrowing money to invest in cryptos, which is totally stupid).

                                                                                                        When/if this goes tits up (which according to the Bitcoin haters this should have happen already 20 times in the past 9 years since Bitcoin started but instead is still holding strong) nobody with a well balanced portfolio where cryptos are only a small part of it will be affected too much. The downside is that you lose 100% of what you invested, to upside has a potentially huge return, it is up to the individual to size the risk/reward based on his circumstances and trust he has in the future of cryptos and blockchain 10 years from now.

                                                                                                        I personally only have 3% of my money in cryptos, and I am still very much optimistic for the future. If I am wrong I won't lose sleep over it though, just move onto the next one.
                                                                                                        "Poker isn’t about default strategies, it’s about exploiting your opponent's bad tendencies"

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                                                                                                          Under 10k now!

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                                                                                                            Originally posted by Tar.Aldarion View Post
                                                                                                            Under 10k now!
                                                                                                            Goddamn you pussies for not taking my bets.

                                                                                                            'The Raoul Short' could have been my ticket to the big time!

                                                                                                            Heading rapidly south of 9k too.

                                                                                                            It's essentially a BF in-running market now.
                                                                                                            "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                                                                                              The smart, ballsy guys are buying up bitcoin right now.

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                                                                                                                Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                                                Goddamn you pussies for not taking my bets.

                                                                                                                'The Raoul Short' could have been my ticket to the big time!

                                                                                                                Heading rapidly south of 9k too.

                                                                                                                It's essentially a BF in-running market now.
                                                                                                                Terrible timing for you

                                                                                                                no idea what that last sentence means!

                                                                                                                Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                                                                The smart, ballsy guys are buying up bitcoin right now.
                                                                                                                I think this isn't the bottom yet so will probably buy some in a few days or next week. Have set some limit buys going downwards on some coins.

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                                                                                                                  Originally posted by Mike Bullocks View Post
                                                                                                                  Welcome to 1999 with bells on it.
                                                                                                                  Another person dying to say I told you so

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                                                                                                                    Originally posted by hotspur View Post
                                                                                                                    Was talking to a friend earlier (guy who got me into cryptos) and he took out his phone and showed me the crypto price charts of January of each of the last four years on one screen. Graphs looked identical.
                                                                                                                    Are previous years data of much relevance now though?. Seems like every idiot in the street is getting involved now which adds a completely unique aspect to this unlike those last few years. So expecting those trends to continue this year would strike me as particularly naive.
                                                                                                                    Profit before people.

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                                                                                                                      Originally posted by The Situation View Post
                                                                                                                      Are previous years data of much relevance now though?. Seems like every idiot in the street is getting involved now which adds a completely unique aspect to this unlike those last few years. So expecting those trends to continue this year would strike me as particularly naive.
                                                                                                                      There is a particular science in trading called Charting.

                                                                                                                      I remember one dude I worked with getting highly excited about the emergence of 'the duck'.
                                                                                                                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

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                                                                                                                        Originally posted by The Situation View Post
                                                                                                                        Are previous years data of much relevance now though?. Seems like every idiot in the street is getting involved now which adds a completely unique aspect to this unlike those last few years. So expecting those trends to continue this year would strike me as particularly naive.
                                                                                                                        Yeah,Way more of the people involved in previous years were presumably people who believed in bitcoin as a sort of utopian project,not just a vehicle for punting like most of the money piling in now (myself included for a brief period)
                                                                                                                        Last edited by Guest; 17-01-18, 17:59.

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                                                                                                                          Honestly think the whole Hodl meme will be responsible for more suicides than any other internet meme in history when this is all over

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