This of course is a very rough model and it cannot take appropriate account of the fact that changing support levels between elections tend to vary geographically. Thus constituency support estimates for different parties/groupings will be over-estimated in some constituencies and under-estimated in others, but the expectation would be that the overall national seat figures figures estimated will be relatively close to the true level, given that over-estimates in certain constituencies should be offset by under-estimates in others. For instance, a seat predicted for a party/grouping in a constituency in this analysis might not pan out due to that party not doing as well in that constituency as predicted by the constituency support estimates. But, if that party/grouping is not doing as well as expected in that constituency, they must be doing better than expected in another constituency, where they could pick up a seat in a case where the model does not predict one for that party (or one more seat than the number(s) predicted in the model).
Thats Kavanaghs own disclaimer copied from his blog.
But, if you consider SF for instance, with just one candidate in each constituency, it is much more likely a bad showing in one area will result in no-one elected, while a good showing somewhere else will just result in the one person being elected more comfortably, there's no possibility of a compensating seat gain.
Where they are running two candidates in the border constituencies, their vote is showing too high, their traditional vote here is an old nationalist/republican vote and won't mirror the increase elsewhere, eg 43% in Cavan Monaghan is just not on, also very unlikely in Donegal.
In short his methods over estimate SF seats, and under estimate Labours, because their vote will be very unevenly spread, as the 7, 10, 12% or whatever they get will be concentrated mainly in areas where they have very strong candidates and will be sparse elsewhere.
I see PP have put up prices for a some prominent Td's to retain their seats. The most interesting is probably minister Paschal Donohoe @ 11/8.
Dublin central is going to be some dog fight. 4 sitting Tds have been selected / declared to run with only 3 seats up for grabs. Mary Fitzpatrick will also be hoping that the projected FF increase will see her take back a seat in the former Bertie stronghold.
Initially I thought 11/8 might be value but the boundary changes certainly haven't been kind to Donohoe. Mary Lou is likely to top the poll and is probably the only one sure of a seat. Her surplus likely to go in the main to Maureen O Sullivan and Joe Costelloe. The last two seats will more than likely be decided by which of the 4 are eliminated first.
Costello eliminated would probably see Donohoe in and his surplus might get O'Sullivan in.
O'Sullivan eliminated would probably see Costello in and his surplus get Donohoe in.
Donohoe eliminated should see Costello in and his surplus would get O Sullivan in.
The big unknown is how well Fitzpatrick will poll for FF and if she is eliminated who she transfers to.
There is a fair smell of media frenzy in the air, that could become self fulfilling
Listen for Burton in the next day or two, if she was to go public (herself not sources) about wanting to stay until spring then lay Nov for all the money. Edna cannot afford to be humiliating her now.
This is my first time even looking at this thread and fwiw I just served the local FF man in work and asked him about the election. He said November isn't happening. I asked him what to lump on and he said February at 3/1 would be printing money.
This is my first time even looking at this thread and fwiw I just served the local FF man in work and asked him about the election. He said November isn't happening. I asked him what to lump on and he said February at 3/1 would be printing money.
TL; DR. WP Denny
tbf you'd be better off asking the wall
"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
I've no idea tbh m8. I just vote for whatever Healy Rae is running in my locality. Know sweet FA about politics. Just thought I'd throw up the post after you two had made the bet.
Personally I think Feb\Mar is full of risk - primarily a winter of 'patients on trolleys' stories. Denny is sitting on a great bet though, the bollix.
Nov was never anything more than a meejia feeding frenzy IMO they ramped it and ramped it and then made a huge leap when Edna didn't play their game and wouldn't explicitly rule it out.
Sure it was an option and sure there are some risks in terms of events but half a million arse pockets €100 a month fuller is the only thing that matters.
Not much change following the giveaway budget with PP. The next opinion poll should be interesting. Someone thought Pascal Donohoe at 11/8 was value only evens now.
Not much change following the giveaway budget with PP. The next opinion poll should be interesting. Someone thought Pascal Donohoe at 11/8 was value only evens now.
it will come down to one thing and one thing only: 'how much money have I got in my pocket?'
people will bitch and moan about the government (water charges etc etc) but they are the only credible managers of the economy out there. And let's face it, that's all we expect of Irish governments.
I'll be watching this market with interest. FG\LAB clearly not value at 7\2 today but should keep an eye on it.
"We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."
it will come down to one thing and one thing only: 'how much money have I got in my pocket?'
people will bitch and moan about the government (water charges etc etc) but they are the only credible managers of the economy out there. And let's face it, that's all we expect of Irish governments.
I'll be watching this market with interest. FG\LAB clearly not value at 7\2 today but should keep an eye on it.
The last time people voted was due to a change been needed and money been given back.
This current bunch can easily manage something that was on its knees but how will they react to a dip occuring.I think one will jump ship and drop the other like a light.
price for both looks about rite but might be worth looking at a Fine Gael minority if they keep things on the up althou that would kill me as i hate the fuckers.
April is still alive in the election betting as well.
Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To...View Post
At least you've got your health horatio ()
From Adrian Kavanagh. I only read the bit that suits my dreams of gambling glory, so its entirely possible the rest of that post goes on to invalidate his initial analysis.
FYP Im in a coronary care unit , if you will pardon the pun have you no heart.
Actually the labour figures are day by day starting to horribly resemble the lib Dems. As soon as a retired labour leader comes out and says they are false polls and they will perform better in the actual election I will transfer the funds to your account.
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