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    #61
    Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
    Kavanagh puts Labour on 7 seats based on most recent poll.
    I'd buy the overs on that although I doubt anyone's interested.

    Surely the 'I support the government' bloc would have good transferrability between their candidates?
    "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

    Comment


      #62
      Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
      Kavanagh puts Labour on 7 seats based on most recent poll.
      His previous forecast (10 days before) was 14 seats.

      I'll also take the 11.5 bet if you like.
      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

      Comment


        #63
        ...
        "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

        Comment


          #64
          This of course is a very rough model and it cannot take appropriate account of the fact that changing support levels between elections tend to vary geographically. Thus constituency support estimates for different parties/groupings will be over-estimated in some constituencies and under-estimated in others, but the expectation would be that the overall national seat figures figures estimated will be relatively close to the true level, given that over-estimates in certain constituencies should be offset by under-estimates in others. For instance, a seat predicted for a party/grouping in a constituency in this analysis might not pan out due to that party not doing as well in that constituency as predicted by the constituency support estimates. But, if that party/grouping is not doing as well as expected in that constituency, they must be doing better than expected in another constituency, where they could pick up a seat in a case where the model does not predict one for that party (or one more seat than the number(s) predicted in the model).

          Thats Kavanaghs own disclaimer copied from his blog.

          But, if you consider SF for instance, with just one candidate in each constituency, it is much more likely a bad showing in one area will result in no-one elected, while a good showing somewhere else will just result in the one person being elected more comfortably, there's no possibility of a compensating seat gain.

          Where they are running two candidates in the border constituencies, their vote is showing too high, their traditional vote here is an old nationalist/republican vote and won't mirror the increase elsewhere, eg 43% in Cavan Monaghan is just not on, also very unlikely in Donegal.

          In short his methods over estimate SF seats, and under estimate Labours, because their vote will be very unevenly spread, as the 7, 10, 12% or whatever they get will be concentrated mainly in areas where they have very strong candidates and will be sparse elsewhere.
          Last edited by BigDeal; 06-10-15, 17:39.

          Comment


            #65
            I see PP have put up prices for a some prominent Td's to retain their seats. The most interesting is probably minister Paschal Donohoe @ 11/8.

            Dublin central is going to be some dog fight. 4 sitting Tds have been selected / declared to run with only 3 seats up for grabs. Mary Fitzpatrick will also be hoping that the projected FF increase will see her take back a seat in the former Bertie stronghold.

            Initially I thought 11/8 might be value but the boundary changes certainly haven't been kind to Donohoe. Mary Lou is likely to top the poll and is probably the only one sure of a seat. Her surplus likely to go in the main to Maureen O Sullivan and Joe Costelloe. The last two seats will more than likely be decided by which of the 4 are eliminated first.

            Costello eliminated would probably see Donohoe in and his surplus might get O'Sullivan in.

            O'Sullivan eliminated would probably see Costello in and his surplus get Donohoe in.

            Donohoe eliminated should see Costello in and his surplus would get O Sullivan in.

            The big unknown is how well Fitzpatrick will poll for FF and if she is eliminated who she transfers to.

            Can't wait for this GE.

            Comment


              #66
              Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
              November now 1\3.
              Now 2\7.
              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

              Comment


                #67
                Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                Now 2\7.
                Now 1/6

                It's on beeatches.

                PP mailed me back. Refusing to provide seaparate lines for AAAPBP, SD or Renua. Cowardly fucks.
                "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                Comment


                  #68
                  Mar looking like valoooo imo

                  Comment


                    #69
                    Total Seats lines

                    Comment


                      #70
                      Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post
                      Mar looking like valoooo imo
                      Nov 1/8 now
                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                      Comment


                        #71
                        Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                        Nov 1/8 now
                        There is a fair smell of media frenzy in the air, that could become self fulfilling
                        Listen for Burton in the next day or two, if she was to go public (herself not sources) about wanting to stay until spring then lay Nov for all the money. Edna cannot afford to be humiliating her now.
                        Turning millions into thousands

                        Comment


                          #72
                          Really like labour overs the more I think about it.

                          Comment


                            #73
                            ...
                            "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                            Comment


                              #74
                              Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                              If its not November, then when will it be - Feb or Mar? I guess Mar? 4/1 for either Feb or Mar now.
                              it's Nov

                              and Labour are not happy
                              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                              Comment


                                #75
                                ...
                                "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                Comment


                                  #76
                                  ...
                                  "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                  Comment


                                    #77
                                    Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                    @Raoul how much notice do you have to give to have an election, do you know? Four weeks or something similar?
                                    Simply have to go to the President dissolve the Dail then hold the election between eighteen and twenty five days later if memory serves.
                                    The sport that unites Catholic, Protestant and dissenter has had its day of days. Pity anybody who can't enjoy it. Some day. Gerry Thornley 23/3/09

                                    Comment


                                      #78
                                      Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                      @Raoul how much notice do you have to give to have an election, do you know? Four weeks or something similar?
                                      Originally posted by Mickey Rosa View Post
                                      Simply have to go to the President dissolve the Dail then hold the election between eighteen and twenty five days later if memory serves.
                                      Sundays , Bank holidays and good Friday do not count in the calculation of the 18-25 day period.

                                      Comment


                                        #79
                                        ...
                                        "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                        Comment


                                          #80
                                          Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post
                                          Mar looking like valoooo imo
                                          Feb could be value , last two weeks in March are out with paddys / Easter week ends.

                                          Comment


                                            #81
                                            Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                            it's Nov

                                            and Labour are not happy
                                            Gimmie 200 @ 9/2 on Feb so?

                                            Comment


                                              #82
                                              Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post
                                              Gimmie 200 @ 9/2 on Feb so?
                                              100 @ 21/5
                                              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                              Comment


                                                #83
                                                Sure Nov is a cert!

                                                Comment


                                                  #84
                                                  Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post
                                                  Sure Nov is a cert!
                                                  That's better odds than PP. Whaddya want, blood?!
                                                  "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                  Comment


                                                    #85
                                                    Just thought you'd offer something that represented your bullishness for Nov, sure I'm practically handing you money here!

                                                    Comment


                                                      #86
                                                      Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post
                                                      Just thought you'd offer something that represented your bullishness for Nov, sure I'm practically handing you money here!
                                                      No, I'm handing you free money.

                                                      Take it if you like, otherwise feck off to Mr Power and accept his worse price.
                                                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                      Comment


                                                        #87
                                                        Go on then, he probably wouldn't take the 100 anyway.

                                                        Comment


                                                          #88
                                                          Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post
                                                          Go on then, he probably wouldn't take the 100 anyway.
                                                          Booked.

                                                          100 @ 4.25 on a Feb election, gl
                                                          "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                          Comment


                                                            #89
                                                            Originally posted by Denny Crane View Post
                                                            Go on then, he probably wouldn't take the 100 anyway.
                                                            Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                            Booked.

                                                            100 @ 4.25 on a Feb election, gl
                                                            This is my first time even looking at this thread and fwiw I just served the local FF man in work and asked him about the election. He said November isn't happening. I asked him what to lump on and he said February at 3/1 would be printing money.

                                                            TL; DR. WP Denny

                                                            Comment


                                                              #90
                                                              Originally posted by dobby View Post
                                                              This is my first time even looking at this thread and fwiw I just served the local FF man in work and asked him about the election. He said November isn't happening. I asked him what to lump on and he said February at 3/1 would be printing money.

                                                              TL; DR. WP Denny
                                                              tbf you'd be better off asking the wall
                                                              "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                              Comment


                                                                #91
                                                                Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                tbf you'd be better off asking the wall
                                                                I've no idea tbh m8. I just vote for whatever Healy Rae is running in my locality. Know sweet FA about politics. Just thought I'd throw up the post after you two had made the bet.

                                                                Comment


                                                                  #92
                                                                  Originally posted by dobby View Post
                                                                  I just vote for whatever Healy Rae is running in my locality.
                                                                  "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    #93
                                                                    ...
                                                                    "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      #94
                                                                      Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                                      The Healy Rae thing was hopefully tongue-in-cheek
                                                                      I took it that way anyway.

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        #95
                                                                        Love the way the healy-raes raise the hackles of ye metropolitan sophisticats.

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          #96
                                                                          I'll also have 50 @21/5 on a Feb election if anyone wants to take it?

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            #97
                                                                            Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                            Booked.

                                                                            100 @ 4.25 on a Feb election, gl
                                                                            Also wp Denny on getting 4.25 instead of 4.2 as offered

                                                                            Comment


                                                                              #98
                                                                              Originally posted by dobby View Post
                                                                              I just vote for whatever Healy Rae is running in my locality.


                                                                              Ban IMO
                                                                              Turning millions into thousands

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                #99
                                                                                I still think theres a good chance that dobby is Riggers most successful troll account.

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  You'd get burnt at the stake if you didn't vote them down here. Tis just the way it is begorrah.

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    The November hysteria is waning a bit, 8/11 now with both Feb and March 7/4.

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                      Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                      tbf you'd be better off asking the wall
                                                                                      Originally posted by BigDeal View Post
                                                                                      The November hysteria is waning a bit, 8/11 now with both Feb and March 7/4.

                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                        Originally posted by BigDeal View Post
                                                                                        The November hysteria is waning a bit, 8/11 now with both Feb and March 7/4.
                                                                                        Denny Crane must have been talking to his local FF man too. wp
                                                                                        "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                          Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                          100 @ 21/5
                                                                                          Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                          Booked.

                                                                                          100 @ 4.25 on a Feb election, gl
                                                                                          Originally posted by careca View Post
                                                                                          Also wp Denny on getting 4.25 instead of 4.2 as offered
                                                                                          Unless you lot are talking in some crazy secret odds that I don't understand, then 21/5 is 5.20

                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                            Originally posted by BigDeal View Post
                                                                                            The November hysteria is waning a bit, 8/11 now with both Feb and March 7/4.
                                                                                            Feb now 4/6

                                                                                            I demand a recount.
                                                                                            "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                              The sport that unites Catholic, Protestant and dissenter has had its day of days. Pity anybody who can't enjoy it. Some day. Gerry Thornley 23/3/09

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                Originally posted by Flushdraw View Post
                                                                                                Unless you lot are talking in some crazy secret odds that I don't understand, then 21/5 is 5.20
                                                                                                sorry 4.25/1

                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                  November went from 1/6 to 5/1 to 12/5.

                                                                                                  Personally I think Feb\Mar is full of risk - primarily a winter of 'patients on trolleys' stories. Denny is sitting on a great bet though, the bollix.
                                                                                                  "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                    Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                                    November went from 1/6 to 5/1 to 12/5.

                                                                                                    Personally I think Feb\Mar is full of risk - primarily a winter of 'patients on trolleys' stories. Denny is sitting on a great bet though, the bollix.
                                                                                                    Nov was never anything more than a meejia feeding frenzy IMO they ramped it and ramped it and then made a huge leap when Edna didn't play their game and wouldn't explicitly rule it out.
                                                                                                    Sure it was an option and sure there are some risks in terms of events but half a million arse pockets €100 a month fuller is the only thing that matters.
                                                                                                    Turning millions into thousands

                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                      Could capitalise on a RWC\soccer feelgood factor yet.
                                                                                                      "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                        Not much change following the giveaway budget with PP. The next opinion poll should be interesting. Someone thought Pascal Donohoe at 11/8 was value only evens now.

                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                          Originally posted by horatio1 View Post
                                                                                                          Not much change following the giveaway budget with PP. The next opinion poll should be interesting. Someone thought Pascal Donohoe at 11/8 was value only evens now.
                                                                                                          it will come down to one thing and one thing only: 'how much money have I got in my pocket?'

                                                                                                          people will bitch and moan about the government (water charges etc etc) but they are the only credible managers of the economy out there. And let's face it, that's all we expect of Irish governments.

                                                                                                          I'll be watching this market with interest. FG\LAB clearly not value at 7\2 today but should keep an eye on it.
                                                                                                          "We are not Europeans. Those people on the continent are freaks."

                                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                                            Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                                            it will come down to one thing and one thing only: 'how much money have I got in my pocket?'

                                                                                                            people will bitch and moan about the government (water charges etc etc) but they are the only credible managers of the economy out there. And let's face it, that's all we expect of Irish governments.

                                                                                                            I'll be watching this market with interest. FG\LAB clearly not value at 7\2 today but should keep an eye on it.
                                                                                                            The last time people voted was due to a change been needed and money been given back.
                                                                                                            This current bunch can easily manage something that was on its knees but how will they react to a dip occuring.I think one will jump ship and drop the other like a light.
                                                                                                            price for both looks about rite but might be worth looking at a Fine Gael minority if they keep things on the up althou that would kill me as i hate the fuckers.
                                                                                                            April is still alive in the election betting as well.

                                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                                              Taoiseach Enda Kenny’s mishandling of the timing of the General Election has seen support for Fine Gael drop, but support for Labour increase.

                                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                                Originally posted by Raoul Duke III View Post
                                                                                                                FG line edges up to 55.5

                                                                                                                It was 49.5 not so long ago.
                                                                                                                Up to 57,5 with PP now.

                                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                                  ...
                                                                                                                  "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                                    Originally posted by Hitchhiker's Guide To... View Post
                                                                                                                    At least you've got your health horatio ()



                                                                                                                    From Adrian Kavanagh. I only read the bit that suits my dreams of gambling glory, so its entirely possible the rest of that post goes on to invalidate his initial analysis.
                                                                                                                    FYP Im in a coronary care unit , if you will pardon the pun have you no heart.

                                                                                                                    Actually the labour figures are day by day starting to horribly resemble the lib Dems. As soon as a retired labour leader comes out and says they are false polls and they will perform better in the actual election I will transfer the funds to your account.

                                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                                      ...
                                                                                                                      "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                                        The sport that unites Catholic, Protestant and dissenter has had its day of days. Pity anybody who can't enjoy it. Some day. Gerry Thornley 23/3/09

                                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                                          ...
                                                                                                                          "We're not f*cking Burundi" - Big Phil

                                                                                                                          Comment

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