Maybe we can use this thread for all Euro 2012 bets. I just started it as one of our writers did some research and came up with a great (imo) piece on the bore draw promotion by Bet365 using the Poland opening game as an example. I don't wanna shill so here is the jist of it:
Euro 2012 Bore Draw Refund
For Euro 2012, if a match finishes 0-0 (Bore Draw) Bet365 refunds all losing bets. This applies to match winner, half-time winner, first goalscorer, last goalscorer, anytime goalscorer, all correct score markets and scorecast markets. While the gut reaction might be that bore draws are rare, they do happen. For Euro 2008, 6 of the 24 (25%) first round matches ended either 0-1 or 0-0. While only 1 (4.17%) ended a bore draw, quite a few had come close. Let me show you an example of how this provides the best odds, using the first match of the tournament Greece versus Poland.
The site known for best odds on football is www.pinnaclesports.com. The first thing I did was compare the odds and found:
Pinnacle: Poland 2.02 – Draw 3.36 – Greece 4.43
Bet365: Poland 2.00 – Draw 3.25 – Greece 4.00
It would appear Pinnacle has better odds than Bet365 however we haven’t calculated the bore draw aspect of it yet. To do this we start by removing vig from the Pinnacle odds. This works as follows.
Poland 1/2.02= 49.50%
Draw 1/3.36= 29.76%
Greece 1/4.43=22.57%
What I’ve just calculated is how often each selection needs to win to average break-even, when betting at Pinnacle Sports (this is called implied probability). Notice that 49.5%+29.76%+22.57%=101.83%. If things were fair, the three would equal 100%. The reason they equal more is the vig, which is how the bookmaker makes their profit. In order to remove vig we just divide each implied probability by the 101.83% total percent market. This is as follows:
Poland 1/2.02= 49.50%/101.83%=48.61%
Draw 1/3.36= 29.76%/101.83%=29.23%
Greece 1/4.43=22.57%/101.83%=22.16%
Notice they now total 100%. This tells us these were the probabilities Pinnacle assigned for each selection winning before adding vig. Considering Pinnacle has the lowest margins and highest betting limits on Euro 2012, we can expect this is very close to the true probability of each selection winning.
Now what we need to do is extract the 0-0 bore draw probability from the 29.23% and separate it. To do this I go to the betting exchange of www.betfair.com to see what their prices are on exact score draws. The reason I chose Betfair is they have the largest market on exact scores for Euro 2012, and should give me the most accurate odds. At Betfair the price 0-0 is trading for is odds 7.2. So here I take 1/7.2=13.89%. I can now use all this information to cap the market as:
Poland – 48.61%
Bore Draw – 13.89%
Other Draw – 15.34%
Greece – 22.16%
So now let’s take a look at the expected value of betting Poland at odds 2.00 at bet365 for a €100 stake:
48.61% of time Poland wins ( EV = +€48.61 )
13.89% Break Even on 0-0 Draw ( EV = €0 )
15.34% Lose €100 on other draw ( EV = -€15.34)
22.16% Lose €100 on Greece win ( EV = -€22.16)
Add these together and you’ll see the expected value of betting Poland at Bet365 is positive €11.11, on a €100 stake. In other words you can expect an 11.11% ROI betting Poland at Bet365. At Pinnacle the odds were 2.02, and here 48.61% of the time you’d win €102 (EV=+€49.58) and 51.39% you lose €100 (EV= -€51.39) for a total of -€1.81 or in other words a negative ROI of 1.81% the amount you staked.
Source
Also let me know if anyone has any comments or criticism on it.
SPOILER
Euro 2012 Bore Draw Refund
For Euro 2012, if a match finishes 0-0 (Bore Draw) Bet365 refunds all losing bets. This applies to match winner, half-time winner, first goalscorer, last goalscorer, anytime goalscorer, all correct score markets and scorecast markets. While the gut reaction might be that bore draws are rare, they do happen. For Euro 2008, 6 of the 24 (25%) first round matches ended either 0-1 or 0-0. While only 1 (4.17%) ended a bore draw, quite a few had come close. Let me show you an example of how this provides the best odds, using the first match of the tournament Greece versus Poland.
The site known for best odds on football is www.pinnaclesports.com. The first thing I did was compare the odds and found:
Pinnacle: Poland 2.02 – Draw 3.36 – Greece 4.43
Bet365: Poland 2.00 – Draw 3.25 – Greece 4.00
It would appear Pinnacle has better odds than Bet365 however we haven’t calculated the bore draw aspect of it yet. To do this we start by removing vig from the Pinnacle odds. This works as follows.
Poland 1/2.02= 49.50%
Draw 1/3.36= 29.76%
Greece 1/4.43=22.57%
What I’ve just calculated is how often each selection needs to win to average break-even, when betting at Pinnacle Sports (this is called implied probability). Notice that 49.5%+29.76%+22.57%=101.83%. If things were fair, the three would equal 100%. The reason they equal more is the vig, which is how the bookmaker makes their profit. In order to remove vig we just divide each implied probability by the 101.83% total percent market. This is as follows:
Poland 1/2.02= 49.50%/101.83%=48.61%
Draw 1/3.36= 29.76%/101.83%=29.23%
Greece 1/4.43=22.57%/101.83%=22.16%
Notice they now total 100%. This tells us these were the probabilities Pinnacle assigned for each selection winning before adding vig. Considering Pinnacle has the lowest margins and highest betting limits on Euro 2012, we can expect this is very close to the true probability of each selection winning.
Now what we need to do is extract the 0-0 bore draw probability from the 29.23% and separate it. To do this I go to the betting exchange of www.betfair.com to see what their prices are on exact score draws. The reason I chose Betfair is they have the largest market on exact scores for Euro 2012, and should give me the most accurate odds. At Betfair the price 0-0 is trading for is odds 7.2. So here I take 1/7.2=13.89%. I can now use all this information to cap the market as:
Poland – 48.61%
Bore Draw – 13.89%
Other Draw – 15.34%
Greece – 22.16%
So now let’s take a look at the expected value of betting Poland at odds 2.00 at bet365 for a €100 stake:
48.61% of time Poland wins ( EV = +€48.61 )
13.89% Break Even on 0-0 Draw ( EV = €0 )
15.34% Lose €100 on other draw ( EV = -€15.34)
22.16% Lose €100 on Greece win ( EV = -€22.16)
Add these together and you’ll see the expected value of betting Poland at Bet365 is positive €11.11, on a €100 stake. In other words you can expect an 11.11% ROI betting Poland at Bet365. At Pinnacle the odds were 2.02, and here 48.61% of the time you’d win €102 (EV=+€49.58) and 51.39% you lose €100 (EV= -€51.39) for a total of -€1.81 or in other words a negative ROI of 1.81% the amount you staked.
Source
Also let me know if anyone has any comments or criticism on it.
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