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    Euro 2012 Betting

    Maybe we can use this thread for all Euro 2012 bets. I just started it as one of our writers did some research and came up with a great (imo) piece on the bore draw promotion by Bet365 using the Poland opening game as an example. I don't wanna shill so here is the jist of it:

    SPOILER

    Euro 2012 Bore Draw Refund
    For Euro 2012, if a match finishes 0-0 (Bore Draw) Bet365 refunds all losing bets. This applies to match winner, half-time winner, first goalscorer, last goalscorer, anytime goalscorer, all correct score markets and scorecast markets. While the gut reaction might be that bore draws are rare, they do happen. For Euro 2008, 6 of the 24 (25%) first round matches ended either 0-1 or 0-0. While only 1 (4.17%) ended a bore draw, quite a few had come close. Let me show you an example of how this provides the best odds, using the first match of the tournament Greece versus Poland.

    The site known for best odds on football is www.pinnaclesports.com. The first thing I did was compare the odds and found:

    Pinnacle: Poland 2.02 – Draw 3.36 – Greece 4.43
    Bet365: Poland 2.00 – Draw 3.25 – Greece 4.00

    It would appear Pinnacle has better odds than Bet365 however we haven’t calculated the bore draw aspect of it yet. To do this we start by removing vig from the Pinnacle odds. This works as follows.

    Poland 1/2.02= 49.50%
    Draw 1/3.36= 29.76%
    Greece 1/4.43=22.57%

    What I’ve just calculated is how often each selection needs to win to average break-even, when betting at Pinnacle Sports (this is called implied probability). Notice that 49.5%+29.76%+22.57%=101.83%. If things were fair, the three would equal 100%. The reason they equal more is the vig, which is how the bookmaker makes their profit. In order to remove vig we just divide each implied probability by the 101.83% total percent market. This is as follows:

    Poland 1/2.02= 49.50%/101.83%=48.61%
    Draw 1/3.36= 29.76%/101.83%=29.23%
    Greece 1/4.43=22.57%/101.83%=22.16%

    Notice they now total 100%. This tells us these were the probabilities Pinnacle assigned for each selection winning before adding vig. Considering Pinnacle has the lowest margins and highest betting limits on Euro 2012, we can expect this is very close to the true probability of each selection winning.

    Now what we need to do is extract the 0-0 bore draw probability from the 29.23% and separate it. To do this I go to the betting exchange of www.betfair.com to see what their prices are on exact score draws. The reason I chose Betfair is they have the largest market on exact scores for Euro 2012, and should give me the most accurate odds. At Betfair the price 0-0 is trading for is odds 7.2. So here I take 1/7.2=13.89%. I can now use all this information to cap the market as:

    Poland – 48.61%
    Bore Draw – 13.89%
    Other Draw – 15.34%
    Greece – 22.16%

    So now let’s take a look at the expected value of betting Poland at odds 2.00 at bet365 for a €100 stake:

    48.61% of time Poland wins ( EV = +€48.61 )
    13.89% Break Even on 0-0 Draw ( EV = €0 )
    15.34% Lose €100 on other draw ( EV = -€15.34)
    22.16% Lose €100 on Greece win ( EV = -€22.16)

    Add these together and you’ll see the expected value of betting Poland at Bet365 is positive €11.11, on a €100 stake. In other words you can expect an 11.11% ROI betting Poland at Bet365. At Pinnacle the odds were 2.02, and here 48.61% of the time you’d win €102 (EV=+€49.58) and 51.39% you lose €100 (EV= -€51.39) for a total of -€1.81 or in other words a negative ROI of 1.81% the amount you staked.





    Source

    Also let me know if anyone has any comments or criticism on it.

    #2
    I put €100 at 17.5 Italy to win. Betfair.

    Comment


      #3
      Sweden look to be good value in their match with Ukraine. Widely available at 2/1 and 21/10. Home advantage is one thing (and a big thing) but apparently Ukraine have looked really bad in friendlies, are not cohesive as a squad, have had food poisoning disrupting them etc.

      And Sweden are not the bores of the last few years.

      Comment


        #4
        me a name i call myself

        sell england at around 30 mark on the spreads. if they dont get out of group thats a tidy profit. if they go out at q/f your still in profit ( 25 points). obviously if they go on to win the dam thing your taking a big hit but thats not gonna happen now is it. . id buy france around the same mark of 30s. and a run for them past the quarters and we are laughing.

        Disclaimer: beware of spreadbetting, you can get more than your fingers burnt if you go too high per point. but as someone once said with greater risk comes bigger rewards.

        Comment


          #5
          Bets so far:
          France/Russia group winners double 6/4 11/8
          France to beat England 6/4
          Top scorer: A Kerzahkov 33/1 Lewandowski 20/1
          Top Russian scorer: Kerzahkov 11/2

          More to follow no doubt.

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by Percy007 View Post
            Bets so far:
            France/Russia group winners double 6/4 11/8
            France to beat England 6/4
            Top scorer: A Kerzahkov 33/1 Lewandowski 20/1
            Top Russian scorer: Kerzahkov 11/2

            More to follow no doubt.
            Any thoughts on the 21 year old winger for Russia as top scorer Alan dserisov(I think)
            His rival it seems, had broken his dreams,By stealing the girl of his fancy.Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,But everyone knew her as Nancy.

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by elbows View Post
              Any thoughts on the 21 year old winger for Russia as top scorer Alan dserisov(I think)
              Denisov?

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by FeetMagic View Post
                Dzagoev, sorry got mixed up
                His rival it seems, had broken his dreams,By stealing the girl of his fancy.Her name was Magill, and she called herself Lil,But everyone knew her as Nancy.

                Comment


                  #9
                  I'm going for a bit of a strange bet, PP's money back special on the accum of Group's outright winners. I am banking on Russia and Spain winning their group, will be shocked if both don't if I'm honest, so that leaves 2 groups left and I only think 2 can win from each group

                  So
                  accum#1
                  €10 Russia, Spain, Germany & France returns 191
                  accum#2
                  €10 Russia, Spain, Germany & England returns 219
                  accum#3
                  €10 Russia, Spain, Netherlands & France returns 261
                  accum#4(the one I was actually gonna bet on)
                  €10 Russia, Spain, Netherlands & England returns 301

                  Money back if 3/4 win so if Russia and Spain do both win then €10 is returned regardless so €30 is bet and minimum 191 back and maximum 301. Obviously need to hang head in shame if it loses but just thought I'd share
                  Go big or go homeless.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by RoadSweeper View Post
                    Maybe we can use this thread for all Euro 2012 bets. I just started it as one of our writers did some research and came up with a great (imo) piece on the bore draw promotion by Bet365 using the Poland opening game as an example. I don't wanna shill so here is the jist of it:

                    SPOILER

                    Euro 2012 Bore Draw Refund
                    For Euro 2012, if a match finishes 0-0 (Bore Draw) Bet365 refunds all losing bets. This applies to match winner, half-time winner, first goalscorer, last goalscorer, anytime goalscorer, all correct score markets and scorecast markets. While the gut reaction might be that bore draws are rare, they do happen. For Euro 2008, 6 of the 24 (25%) first round matches ended either 0-1 or 0-0. While only 1 (4.17%) ended a bore draw, quite a few had come close. Let me show you an example of how this provides the best odds, using the first match of the tournament Greece versus Poland.

                    The site known for best odds on football is www.pinnaclesports.com. The first thing I did was compare the odds and found:

                    Pinnacle: Poland 2.02 – Draw 3.36 – Greece 4.43
                    Bet365: Poland 2.00 – Draw 3.25 – Greece 4.00

                    It would appear Pinnacle has better odds than Bet365 however we haven’t calculated the bore draw aspect of it yet. To do this we start by removing vig from the Pinnacle odds. This works as follows.

                    Poland 1/2.02= 49.50%
                    Draw 1/3.36= 29.76%
                    Greece 1/4.43=22.57%

                    What I’ve just calculated is how often each selection needs to win to average break-even, when betting at Pinnacle Sports (this is called implied probability). Notice that 49.5%+29.76%+22.57%=101.83%. If things were fair, the three would equal 100%. The reason they equal more is the vig, which is how the bookmaker makes their profit. In order to remove vig we just divide each implied probability by the 101.83% total percent market. This is as follows:

                    Poland 1/2.02= 49.50%/101.83%=48.61%
                    Draw 1/3.36= 29.76%/101.83%=29.23%
                    Greece 1/4.43=22.57%/101.83%=22.16%

                    Notice they now total 100%. This tells us these were the probabilities Pinnacle assigned for each selection winning before adding vig. Considering Pinnacle has the lowest margins and highest betting limits on Euro 2012, we can expect this is very close to the true probability of each selection winning.

                    Now what we need to do is extract the 0-0 bore draw probability from the 29.23% and separate it. To do this I go to the betting exchange of www.betfair.com to see what their prices are on exact score draws. The reason I chose Betfair is they have the largest market on exact scores for Euro 2012, and should give me the most accurate odds. At Betfair the price 0-0 is trading for is odds 7.2. So here I take 1/7.2=13.89%. I can now use all this information to cap the market as:

                    Poland – 48.61%
                    Bore Draw – 13.89%
                    Other Draw – 15.34%
                    Greece – 22.16%

                    So now let’s take a look at the expected value of betting Poland at odds 2.00 at bet365 for a €100 stake:

                    48.61% of time Poland wins ( EV = +€48.61 )
                    13.89% Break Even on 0-0 Draw ( EV = €0 )
                    15.34% Lose €100 on other draw ( EV = -€15.34)
                    22.16% Lose €100 on Greece win ( EV = -€22.16)

                    Add these together and you’ll see the expected value of betting Poland at Bet365 is positive €11.11, on a €100 stake. In other words you can expect an 11.11% ROI betting Poland at Bet365. At Pinnacle the odds were 2.02, and here 48.61% of the time you’d win €102 (EV=+€49.58) and 51.39% you lose €100 (EV= -€51.39) for a total of -€1.81 or in other words a negative ROI of 1.81% the amount you staked.





                    Source

                    Also let me know if anyone has any comments or criticism on it.
                    Decent enough but he got a bit carried away, could have just said approx 11% of the time you get your money back once you dont back a draw.

                    Not a big fan Holland in that accum Noel, throw in Poland or Croatia if you want a bigger price imo.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      just looking at some basic stats on espn soccer statistics

                      Current Unbeaten Sequence 6 games: Germany, Ireland Russia, Italy,
                      Romania, France, Greece


                      Most Clean Sheets 5 Ireland, Russia, Italy, Bosnia-Herzegovina

                      italy v ireland to draw,best price 11/4....any good,as part of a accum?
                      Mattie McGrath wanna-be

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Current Unbeaten Sequence 6 games: Germany, Ireland Russia, Italy,
                        Romania, France, Greece



                        italy were well beaten 3-0 by russia just last week and 1-0 by the US recently too,in any case i would be waitin to see how both teams get on in the meantime,who needs what to qualify etc

                        Comment


                          #13
                          The value is mainly all long gone on anything worthwhile in the popular markets unless you fancy a team that's drifted like England or Italy.
                          Profit before people.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            What's the best money back/deposit bonus site for betting on Euro 2012 at the moment? Obviously will depend on odds, but any site definetly worth look at?

                            Comment


                              #15
                              I'm going for all drawn games in our group.

                              All Irelands games
                              Adding in Italy v Croatia for a 4 timer and all six games for the scoop.

                              You may well laugh now but...
                              Turning millions into thousands

                              Comment


                                #16
                                Originally posted by Strewelpeter View Post
                                I'm going for all drawn games in our group.

                                All Irelands games
                                Adding in Italy v Croatia for a 4 timer and all six games for the scoop.

                                You may well laugh now but...
                                I like the 4 timer but not so sure about all 6 games.
                                Pm for rakeback deals

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  Disappointed by the specials this tournament. Nothing comes close to rivaling Victor Chandlers offer, was expecting more from the official partner.
                                  Profit before people.

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Bets i'm hoping to put on. Just looking for a combo of deposit bonus v best odds and then to get busy! Anyone hate any of these bets?

                                    Total Goals

                                    Under 75.5 PP @ 8/11

                                    Player of the Tournament

                                    You might notice that the POTT winner has been a central midfielder for the winning team since it was introduced so no reason why it won't be this time around. Ozil still my top though, but a few players in with a shout

                                    Ozil 14/1 Boyles
                                    Xavi 16/1 Boyles
                                    Sneider 25/1 Laddies
                                    De Rossi 125/1 Bet365

                                    Top Goalscorer

                                    Huntellar 18/1 PP
                                    Klose 25/1 Bet365
                                    Dzagoev 125/1 Boyles

                                    Top Croatia scorer
                                    Nikica Jelavic 9/2 PP

                                    Top Italy scorer
                                    Cassano 6/1 SJ

                                    Top Portugal scorer
                                    Nani 8/1 Boyles

                                    Match Betting

                                    Greece to beat Poland 7/2
                                    Greece 1-0 Poland 17/2 PP

                                    Netherlands 2-0 Russia 6/1 PP
                                    Netherlands to win to nil 7/5 Bet365

                                    Russia 2-0 Poland 9/1 Boyles

                                    France 2-1 Ukraine 17/2 PP

                                    Spain 2-0 Croatia 6/1 PP

                                    Croatia 0-0 Irleand 6/1 Boyles

                                    Group A

                                    Greece to qualify 7/4 Bet365
                                    Russia/Greece forecast 8/1 PP
                                    Poland to finish bottom 10/3 Boyles
                                    Poland 0-1 goals 11/2 Ladbrokes

                                    Group B

                                    Germany to win group 11/10 Boyles

                                    Group C

                                    Spain to get 9 points in group 11/4 Ladbrokes

                                    Group D

                                    Ukraine to finish bottom 9/5 Ladbrokes

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      Nice article Paudie, weird that I didn't even know the website existed - I've got a bit of reading to do!

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        Neither Klose or Huntelaar are likely starters^^^^

                                        The Spanish 9 points bet is interesting though. Hadn't seen that!
                                        Profit before people.

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          [QUOTE=RoadSweeper;555512]Maybe we can use this thread for all Euro 2012 bets. I just started it as one of our writers did some research and came up with a great (imo) piece on the bore draw promotion by Bet365 using the Poland opening game as an example. I don't wanna shill so here is the jist of it:



                                          Poorly researched and this article will cost its readers money (based on betting on match bets). The Bet365 special doesn't include match bets.

                                          Have a pre-match bet on any Euro 2012 match and if the game finishes 0-0 we will refund all losing bets on these markets:
                                          - First Goalscorer
                                          - Last Goalscorer
                                          - Anytime Goalscorer
                                          - Half-Time/Full-Time
                                          - All Correct Score Markets
                                          - All Scorecast Markets

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by The Situation View Post
                                            Neither Klose or Huntelaar are likely starters^^^^

                                            The Spanish 9 points bet is interesting though. Hadn't seen that!
                                            Yeah i know that, but both were their teams top scorers in qualifiers and if they get a chance and score a goal or 2, they will be hard to overlook. Klose well capable of getting a few goals even if he comes off the bench and Huntelaar definetly a better natural finisher than RVP so if the Dutch are chasing a goal, i think they'll look to him. Think there's a small bit of value in the 2

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              Flushdraw I had not realised that all of the recent POTTs had been midfielders. I might back ribery now, best priced 33s. I would possibly prefer Schwienstieger to Ozil and maybe Cesc to Xavi aswell though. lReally like the spain bet also.

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                Majority of it will go on France O/R though.

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Flushdraw View Post
                                                  Yeah i know that, but both were their teams top scorers in qualifiers and if they get a chance and score a goal or 2, they will be hard to overlook. Klose well capable of getting a few goals even if he comes off the bench and Huntelaar definetly a better natural finisher than RVP so if the Dutch are chasing a goal, i think they'll look to him. Think there's a small bit of value in the 2
                                                  Huntelaar has always been a bit of a flat track bully throughout his career, performing out of his skin in the likes of qualifying campaigns and Europa leagues but has done very little on the biggest stage, don't even think 18's would be hugely attractive if he was to get a lot of game time which he won't. If Gomez doesn't come out of the traps quickly I agree Klose will see plenty of game time as Lowe will revert back to the succesfull combo of Podolski and Klose, but you're relying on one of the most efficient/prolific scorers in Europe (Gomez) not doing it.
                                                  Profit before people.

                                                  Comment


                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Flushdraw View Post
                                                    Huntelaar definetly a better natural finisher than RVP
                                                    You do know it's 2012 right, not 2008

                                                    Comment


                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by Howard Finkel View Post
                                                      You do know it's 2012 right, not 2008
                                                      If it's a stroll in the park for Holland and they are winning 2-0, give me RVP any day of the week. If they're 0-0 or 1-0 late on and need to nick a goal, and just throw balls into the box then Huntelaar can do a job. Anyways, if RVP lights up the stage he will probably leave Arsenal so hoping Huntelaar overshadows him

                                                      Comment


                                                        #28
                                                        @sitch, price on Klose to start 1st game?

                                                        Comment


                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by smoothcall View Post
                                                          @sitch, price on Klose to start 1st game?
                                                          Dunno, 2/1 with quite a large margin of error, could be miles offs. Not a market I'd be keen to get involved in. You think he starts?
                                                          Profit before people.

                                                          Comment


                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by Flushdraw View Post
                                                            Top Goalscorer


                                                            Dzagoev 125/1 Boyles
                                                            This could be a very good bet. Have backed Pavluchenko at the start of the year in the vain hope he might start as the lone striker in the 4-2-3-1 but its looking more likely that Kerzahkov will be starting in that role now.

                                                            However this opens up good possibilities for Dzagoev as Kerzahkov is the polar opposite to Pavluchenko in that role in that hes not a target man & tends to drift (a lot) to the flanks meaning the main scoring threat can often come from the 3 behind. Russia should have a minimum of 4 games & hopefully some open group games so I'm gonna get on this aswell.

                                                            Comment


                                                              #31
                                                              This guy has his Euro bets up and is quite decent. Problem most of the time is that the site is so popular now it can be hard to get on at the prices.



                                                              Opr

                                                              Comment


                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by shano1888 View Post
                                                                Flushdraw I had not realised that all of the recent POTTs had been midfielders. I might back ribery now, best priced 33s. I would possibly prefer Schwienstieger to Ozil and maybe Cesc to Xavi aswell though. lReally like the spain bet also.
                                                                Sammer played as sweeper the Euros that Germany won iirc.

                                                                Ribery is very overpriced at 33. And related to that Benzema might be worth a bet for top scorer.

                                                                edit: just looking at PP - Benzema over 1.5 goals in the tournament at 8/11 is mighty tempting.
                                                                Last edited by hotspur; 07-06-12, 12:58.

                                                                Comment


                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by hotspur View Post
                                                                  Sammer played as sweeper the Euros that Germany won iirc.

                                                                  Ribery is very overpriced at 33. And related to that Benzema might be worth a bet for top scorer.
                                                                  Benzema's price has been hammered in like all things France in the last few weeks. They've looked excellent in the warm up game from an attacking pov, plenty of depth too. ribery also seems to finally be replicating his club form for France which can only be a massive bonus. Only worry is at CB and defensive mid were they look a tad short especially with the injury to M'vila.
                                                                  Profit before people.

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    #34
                                                                    ye think if kloses fully fit, he'll get the nod. Low seems to prefer him, much better in build up play.

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      #35
                                                                      Thinking of laying Ireland @8.2 to concede most goals.
                                                                      Value?

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        #36
                                                                        Originally posted by Strewelpeter View Post
                                                                        I'm going for all drawn games in our group.

                                                                        All Irelands games
                                                                        Adding in Italy v Croatia for a 4 timer and all six games for the scoop.

                                                                        You may well laugh now but...
                                                                        Sounds good, what price/s? How do you go about placing that?

                                                                        Originally posted by Opr View Post
                                                                        This guy has his Euro bets up and is quite decent. Problem most of the time is that the site is so popular now it can be hard to get on at the prices.



                                                                        Opr
                                                                        Are youwin cool beans? Saw their 4/1 on Germany, looked up the site and read some person was complaining saying they are dodge. Their website says they are licensed in Malta though.
                                                                        X can be anything, any number, that is what’s CRAZY about X.
                                                                        Because X doesn’t roll like that, because X can’t be pinned down!

                                                                        $ Free Travel Credit with Airbnb $

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          #37
                                                                          Originally posted by BigDeal View Post
                                                                          Thinking of laying Ireland @8.2 to concede most goals.
                                                                          Value?
                                                                          That's a tricky one. If there's value then it's thin. We all know how tight Ireland are and we won't be conceding much versus Croatia or Italy. The Spain game is a bit of a dangerous variable. They could faff around and be lucky to get one or they could absolutely destroy us both in the centre if we play 442 and on the wings knocking in 4. I think that game is why we are as low as 9/2 to be the team who concedes the most.

                                                                          I think I would rather lay the individual games against Croatia and Italy.

                                                                          Comment


                                                                            #38
                                                                            Originally posted by Dice75 View Post
                                                                            This could be a very good bet. Have backed Pavluchenko at the start of the year in the vain hope he might start as the lone striker in the 4-2-3-1 but its looking more likely that Kerzahkov will be starting in that role now.

                                                                            However this opens up good possibilities for Dzagoev as Kerzahkov is the polar opposite to Pavluchenko in that role in that hes not a target man & tends to drift (a lot) to the flanks meaning the main scoring threat can often come from the 3 behind. Russia should have a minimum of 4 games & hopefully some open group games so I'm gonna get on this aswell.
                                                                            Does this guy start? Seems ridic high odds for an attacking starting player compared to all other countries' starting XI? Or maybe it's a mistype.

                                                                            Comment


                                                                              #39
                                                                              Originally posted by FeetMagic View Post
                                                                              Does this guy start? Seems ridic high odds for an attacking starting player compared to all other countries' starting XI? Or maybe it's a mistype.
                                                                              Should start on right behind lone striker....





                                                                              On for a decent wedge @ 125's

                                                                              Comment


                                                                                #40
                                                                                15/2 now anyway. Must have been a mistake. GL with it!

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                  #41
                                                                                  Originally posted by FeetMagic View Post
                                                                                  15/2 now anyway. Must have been a mistake. GL with it!
                                                                                  ???

                                                                                  15/2 would make him favourite?

                                                                                  Price hasn't changed.


                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    #42
                                                                                    Originally posted by Dice75 View Post
                                                                                    ???

                                                                                    15/2 would make him favourite?

                                                                                    Price hasn't changed.


                                                                                    http://www.oddschecker.com/football/...top-goalscorer
                                                                                    Jesus I'm all over the place today. Was thinking it was for Russia's top scorer, in a dream world atm...

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                      #43
                                                                                      Hmm, given that a Germany / Holland to qualify from group can be obtained for better than even money I suspect that all of our collective monies should be going in that direction.

                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                        #44
                                                                                        Local bookies offering 6/4 Spain and Germany coupled

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                          #45
                                                                                          Originally posted by Howard Finkel View Post
                                                                                          Local bookies offering 6/4 Spain and Germany coupled
                                                                                          Is that even a good offer?

                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                            #46
                                                                                            Originally posted by FeetMagic View Post
                                                                                            Is that even a good offer?
                                                                                            Should be just over evens at prices so yea.

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                              #47
                                                                                              Paddy is going 18/1 on Ireland to concede the least number of goals in the tournament.

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                #48
                                                                                                Originally posted by ChuckNorris View Post
                                                                                                Paddy is going 18/1 on Ireland to concede the least number of goals in the tournament.
                                                                                                Link?

                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                  #50
                                                                                                  Euro 2012 - Team Conceding Most Goals
                                                                                                  England 25 €8.50 €204.00

                                                                                                  Good old John Terry will not let me down.

                                                                                                  This is now trading at 27 on Betfair.

                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                    #51
                                                                                                    Trying to do a double on BET365 of Germany to win their group & a single match (not in same group) but cant.

                                                                                                    In fact it will only let me double it with another group winner.

                                                                                                    Is this strange?

                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                      #52
                                                                                                      Originally posted by ChuckNorris View Post
                                                                                                      Paddy is going 18/1 on Ireland to concede the least number of goals in the tournament.
                                                                                                      We're going to win 3 matches 0-0, might crash out of the tournament in the groups despite it.
                                                                                                      X can be anything, any number, that is what’s CRAZY about X.
                                                                                                      Because X doesn’t roll like that, because X can’t be pinned down!

                                                                                                      $ Free Travel Credit with Airbnb $

                                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                                        #53
                                                                                                        Got on Spain at 5.1 during the last World Cup along with Germany at 5.3 and 7. Think they'll be my only bets for the month.

                                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                                          #54
                                                                                                          Was reading today that for the first time UEFA have included rankings from their own country co-efficent system as a way of determining who goes through in the event of teams finishing level on points in the group stage. Not sure how far down the list it is, but it could be worth considering in some of the tighter groups

                                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                                            #55
                                                                                                            Originally posted by Dice75 View Post
                                                                                                            This could be a very good bet. Have backed Pavluchenko at the start of the year in the vain hope he might start as the lone striker in the 4-2-3-1 but its looking more likely that Kerzahkov will be starting in that role now.

                                                                                                            However this opens up good possibilities for Dzagoev as Kerzahkov is the polar opposite to Pavluchenko in that role in that hes not a target man & tends to drift (a lot) to the flanks meaning the main scoring threat can often come from the 3 behind. Russia should have a minimum of 4 games & hopefully some open group games so I'm gonna get on this aswell.
                                                                                                            You can still match some small money on this guy at 150/1 on betfair.

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                                                                                                              #56
                                                                                                              i put a big bet on under 2.5 own goals in the euros 4/6 on boyles the other day it was 1/3 and 4/9 on other sites so was def some value and there was 2 own goals scored in the last 2 euros...its changed on boyles now too 4/9

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                                                                                                                #57
                                                                                                                Originally posted by hotspur View Post
                                                                                                                Sammer played as sweeper the Euros that Germany won iirc.

                                                                                                                Ribery is very overpriced at 33. And related to that Benzema might be worth a bet for top scorer.

                                                                                                                edit: just looking at PP - Benzema over 1.5 goals in the tournament at 8/11 is mighty tempting.
                                                                                                                Not my kind of price but that is a very good 8/11 shot imo

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                                                                                                                  #58
                                                                                                                  Having 1 wager and 1 wager only on the tournie.

                                                                                                                  €200 accum on all the group stage favs just to qualify from the group i.e
                                                                                                                  RUSSIA/GERMANY/SPAIN/FRANCE

                                                                                                                  returns €636 so just over 2/1. think its a banker, any thoughts anyone else?

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                                                                                                                    #59
                                                                                                                    Goalscorer matchbet: Void if draw

                                                                                                                    Benzema @ 4/5 vs Llorente

                                                                                                                    Will Llorente get as much game time?

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                                                                                                                      #60
                                                                                                                      Russia @ 2.4 to beat the Czechs, generous price Czechs unimpressive in a shite qualifying group. Staying away form the other game Greece unbeaten in qualifying, a lot of expectation on Poland would be a layer at evs rather than a backer. Could be a lowscoring opening day but a watching brief on this one.

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