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    Best line on river?

    I have queens this time, I somehow managed to not get dealt AKo for a change

    I make it 1.50 utg + 1

    Villain 1 calls in cutoff

    Villain 2 calls from sb.

    5.50 in the pot. The board is a safe looking 336. No Flush draw.

    Check, I bet 4.50. They both call.

    Turn is a J. We all check.

    River is a 4. Check, I bet half the pot. Villain 1 slightly more than min raises me. Villain 2 folds, and its up to me. There's quite a bit more to go in, but I don't think there is any case to be made for shoving. Fold or call? - I also could have checked this river, in which case I would probably call the buttons bet.

    My notes on Villain 1 are (I've even left in the spelling errors):

    cllled 3bet with atO
    OPEN LIMPED BNUTTON
    cold 4bet JJ

    I don't know this player very well, these notes are from a while ago. He didn't buy in for a full stack, and hadn't been playing very aggressively.

    I checked the turn for a number of reasons. Firstly, that jack is actually a pretty bad card. Any pair under me is now going to probably fold to a bet. I'm also concerned that one of the players already has me beat; there are no draws and not many cards I don't mind seeing on the river so I'm happy to check. A 4 is actually not a great card.

    #2
    ya not a great scenario but i call anyway. i expect to see this clown with a random jack and weird stuff enough to call but ofc know i'll see the ol trips, str8 or full a fair bit.

    thinks it's a call but could be wrong
    Last edited by bustamoves; 09-03-12, 06:18.

    Comment


      #3
      I assume no timing reads then? This is close because his raise was so small. I call purely because I don't think he checks back his strong hands on the turn 3 ways. If he checks back trips on the turn, he will most likely just call with them on the river as the most likely trips to check back are trips with a weak kicker and anyone checking them back there is probably overly cautious.
      Anyway call. If you're not in you can't win.

      Comment


        #4
        Pot before river = 5.5 [pre flop] + 13.5 (4.5 X 3 flop bet) = 19

        River, you bet half, get min raised, so 19 + 9.5 + 20 (ish) = 48.5

        Call costs you 20 - 9.5 = 11.5; Odds 48.5/11.5 = 4.2 to 1

        I think this is a call, couple of reasons in no particular order,
        1) Your turn check suggests to him you didn't like the J,
        2) Your notes suggest he values A x hands too highly, and that he goes to town alltogether with medium to big pairs
        3) To a player like him, your hand looks like an A,k which missed
        4) At 4.2 to 1 he only has to bluff minimally for your call to be correct

        I don't think you'll see a straight here too often, but you will have "cleverly" played houses, Aj [which didnt 3 bet this time...], and pairs less than J which want your A,k/A,q to pay off.

        Players that 3bet with A,10o and 4 bet cold with JJ don't strike me as the sort who also min raise the river with the nuts or close to the nuts, but whether he intended to or not the odds he's giving you mean you can't fold here.

        Comment


          #5
          my analysis of the notes you took are
          1. he calls with marginal hands
          2. he raises when he thinks he is ahead

          so there is no bluffs in his range and you are up against his value range... You just need to figure out is there enough Jx in his range to justify the call here.. Wont most fish here just call with weak jack here though?, so only Jx hand he may raise with is AJ maybe KJ

          man o man i hate paying off fish in spots like this!

          Here is poker stove, I have added in a slow played trips hand A3s, if I take it out, your equity rises to 20.6%


          Board: 3c 3h 6d Jc 4d
          Dead:

          equity win tie pots won pots tied
          Hand 0: 19.355% 19.35% 00.00% 6 0.00 { QhQs }
          Hand 1: 80.645% 80.65% 00.00% 25 0.00 { 66, 44-33, AJs, A3s, KJs, 75s, 75o }

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by cardshark202 View Post
            I assume no timing reads then?
            It didn't seem like a bluff, but I already knew there was no chance he was bluffing here really anyway. I was happy enough with the fold until I started wondering what he would do with a hand like KJ or AJ. He probably does float AJ on the flop; don't know about KJ but I wouldn't be surprised.

            I think this is pretty close because I don't beat much, but I am getting very tempting odds and there is a small chance he has a jack.

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by RBBlogger View Post
              my analysis of the notes you took are
              1. he calls with marginal hands
              2. he raises when he thinks he is ahead

              so there is no bluffs in his range and you are up against his value range... You just need to figure out is there enough Jx in his range to justify the call here.. Wont most fish here just call with weak jack here though?, so only Jx hand he may raise with is AJ maybe KJ

              man o man i hate paying off fish in spots like this!

              Here is poker stove, I have added in a slow played trips hand A3s, if I take it out, your equity rises to 20.6%


              Board: 3c 3h 6d Jc 4d
              Dead:

              equity win tie pots won pots tied
              Hand 0: 19.355% 19.35% 00.00% 6 0.00 { QhQs }
              Hand 1: 80.645% 80.65% 00.00% 25 0.00 { 66, 44-33, AJs, A3s, KJs, 75s, 75o }
              i think its incorrect to completely rule bluffs out of his range and we must also inlcude more hands he 'thinks' could be ahead.

              i agree his range is most likely skewed toward a value range but there will surely be at least some bluffs+just plain weird shit that if we add them in your Stove will make it a (somewhat) marginal call. (my stoving would have more jx combo's but it would also include slowplayed play KK+AA so i think the results would be similar)

              Comment


                #8
                I spite call

                Comment


                  #9
                  Bet more on the river. Half pot leaves you open to stuff like this. Make it look like it could be a bluff. Bigger sizing makes it an easier bet fold too. I think you will get a lot of calls too as your line is strange in their eyes.

                  I call just for the cheap info. He has a few bluffs occasionally thinking you cannot have a nut type hand and aj sometimes trying to eek some value out too.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Does nobody bet the turn. Floating is turning into an epidemic lately. Everyone is at it.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by Hurricane Fly View Post
                      Does nobody bet the turn. Floating is turning into an epidemic lately. Everyone is at it.
                      Not betting the turn isn't floating

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by Flushdraw View Post
                        Not betting the turn isn't floating
                        he means the 2 players calling his cbet on the flop are floating...

                        im calling the river raise fwiw but i would also have bet the turn.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by gillespie101 View Post
                          he means the 2 players calling his cbet on the flop are floating...

                          im calling the river raise fwiw but i would also have bet the turn.
                          Either player could have a mid over pair or a piece of the flop. I don't think it's always a float but it's pretty usual to call 1 bet on that flop with most of what you called pre with.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            I love that you leave your notes in completely unformatted, all mine look exactly like that too

                            I think this is only a call if you think he'll float you with AJ or KJ and value raise it here into 2 players (albeit one who he is pretty much certain to beat so it is effectively only one player he's concerned with), I think you'll need a good reason to believe he's capable of this when we can actually use one of the notes to infer the opposite, that he open limped the button isn't hugely telling but it does show a somewhat passive tendency in his game, enough for me to believe he probably isn't going to value raise light/overplay his hands. It's somewhat close given price, which gives us both tempting odds and makes it slightly more likely he's going for thin value (or wants to raise but is too afraid to put in a chunk of money which would be more likely his thought process). So yeah, given note and the fact he isn't full stacked and is playing quite passively we can infer he's likely the kind of player who wouldn't go crazy with one pair and not sure why and is more likely to just call here. Also, if he's playing really passive, it puts stronger hands in his call/check range on the flop and turn.
                            "In the world, there are many kings but there is only one God. I am God, I am El Tren" :{)

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by Flushdraw View Post
                              Either player could have a mid over pair or a piece of the flop. I don't think it's always a float but it's pretty usual to call 1 bet on that flop with most of what you called pre with.
                              yeah i agree but i think the point hurricane was trying to make is that floating has become so regular these days that both players could be doing exactly that so should we be firing the turn instead of checking?

                              Comment


                                #16
                                Originally posted by gillespie101 View Post
                                yeah i agree but i think the point hurricane was trying to make is that floating has become so regular these days that both players could be doing exactly that so should we be firing the turn instead of checking?
                                If we think our opponents are floating surely it makes us way more likely to check, unless we think someone is going to double float us in a three way pot?

                                If someone has air and wants to bluff, we should oblige them! If we bet they just chalk their float down to bad timing and go away. If that's a significant part of their range then we don't want that happening. Although the fact someone overcalled means a floater may be less likely to bet now so we may want to bet to make them fold out any equity they have such as an overcard since we're now negative freerolling if they've given up, but if we think we're being floated here alot even three way we definitely want to check overall. We also check if we just don't think worse hands are going to call us any more, since our double barrel will make us look fairly strong at this stage, so alot of opponents showdown hands will fold, when they may be more likely to call us on the river not fearing another street of betting to come (Although our position does really suck here for that).
                                Last edited by Sledgejammer; 09-03-12, 17:32.
                                "In the world, there are many kings but there is only one God. I am God, I am El Tren" :{)

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  Didn't read the other posts except for Hurricane's directly above, so apologies if this repeats something previously said (however unlikely that may be!)

                                  I wouldn't consider folding here at all with the info we have.

                                  - your notes don't paint an overly complimentary picture of his play.
                                  For that reason, I'd expect him to raise here with a AJ. The way he played the hand Preflop and on the flop is fairly consistent with this holding.

                                  He might even be raising 77-1010 thinking he's good, given your check on the turn.

                                  - It's fairly unlikely you are on low cards given Preflop bet, so he figures you could be barelling high cards, so he tries to move you off. Or he thinks you could be moved off a pair like 99. Or, he's just pretending he has a nutty hand.

                                  - So few 3s that he's calling preflop with, and the straight's really unlikely.

                                  -You're getting crazy odds to call! There's no way that one of the above is not happening with a 1 in 5 frequency.

                                  Long story shorrt... call!

                                  @Hurricane: Yeah, I bet the turn also I think. Pretty good card for their presumed ranges.

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Flushdraw View Post
                                    Not betting the turn isn't floating
                                    I meant they float the flop way more often now than ever before. Which is why I think we find out more if we bet the turn.

                                    I'll try to speak slowly from now on

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by Hurricane Fly View Post
                                      I meant they float the flop way more often now than ever before. Which is why I think we find out more if we bet the turn.

                                      I'll try to speak slowly from now on
                                      I can't understand your Wexford accent, cheers

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        Turn is a must bet imo, but not to find out stuff or because people float. No one floats multi-way here, and this would be a reason to check rather than bet. I bet turn for pure value.

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          I think you have to bet the turn. One of them might get stubborn with 77-TT or they've binked the J and will call two more bullets.

                                          As played I probably fold as it's extremely unlikely no worse hand raises for value and it can't be a bluff giving the sizing. Probably a flopped monster of some kind. I wouldn't blame you for calling as you see a J here a reasonable % of the time and he's just spazzing/retarded but i'd expect to be beat here very, very often.

                                          On another note, the hands your posting are awesome HJ. Really thought provoking and I have learned something from all of them. Keep them coming please.

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by cardshark202 View Post
                                            I assume no timing reads then? This is close because his raise was so small. I call purely because I don't think he checks back his strong hands on the turn 3 ways. If he checks back trips on the turn, he will most likely just call with them on the river as the most likely trips to check back are trips with a weak kicker and anyone checking them back there is probably overly cautious.
                                            Anyway call. If you're not in you can't win.
                                            I find a lot of fish will check trips to the river and then overplay them.

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by ikilldurrr1 View Post
                                              Bet more on the river. Half pot leaves you open to stuff like this. Make it look like it could be a bluff. Bigger sizing makes it an easier bet fold too. I think you will get a lot of calls too as your line is strange in their eyes.

                                              I call just for the cheap info. He has a few bluffs occasionally thinking you cannot have a nut type hand and aj sometimes trying to eek some value out too.
                                              I think in the current circumstances my bet does not look that weak, and it would take a very brave villain to bluff two players here - I really just don't think this is the type of player who would ever bluff here, and if he did he wouldn't make it so tempting to call.

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                Don't think this is ever a bluff, but is worse enough for it to be a call.

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  I'd fold, fish very rarely ever raise a J on river here, id bet turn though. He has flopped huge most of the time with this line

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