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    88 utg MTT Bubble

    ok guys,

    small field (maybe 70 runners) 10rebuy (entraction) bubble. i am utg with 88. BB is CL (stack has 30 Bigs) fishy and calling people for fun, others are pretty bubble conscious it seems.

    i have 7BB and am 13th of 17 left with 2 smaller stacks (c. 5bigs each) on my table. ave stck i'd imagine to have been 10-15 bigs.

    what are my options?
    (i play to win btw not to cash)

    #2
    If min cashing isn't a big deal to you then its a shove. If the CL only has 30x then a 5x shove is still a pretty big bet releative to stacks so ship and hope to get called by a big stack with a7, the reality of the situation is you will most likely be flipping if called. If they have 99-aa then so be it but sure hey they can always have 77 etc.
    http://carlmorrissey.blogspot.com/
    http://twitter.com/#!/Moro88

    Comment


      #3
      you have to shove at this stage, but you shouldn't have let yourself get down to such a small stack.

      Have you been shoving wide in LP to pick up blinds?

      Comment


        #4
        Originally posted by Emmet View Post
        you have to shove at this stage, but you shouldn't have let yourself get down to such a small stack.

        Have you been shoving wide in LP to pick up blinds?
        is this a serious reply emmet? i mean the bit about shouldn't let myself get to such a small stack??!!!! i mean is this a serious question. it seems so (serious) and i am totally bemused

        Comment


          #5
          yup, deadly serious. I think it would be worthwhile to go through the hands of the previous 2/3 orbits to find spots that would've made sense to steal.

          That being said, 13/17 with only 7bbs makes this a pretty crapshooty finish.

          Comment


            #6
            ok, interesting angle but i am almost certain i lost a 1/3 of my stack just one orbit previous. i raised utg with TsTd and was called by the CL fish on BB with Qh6h and flop came down Kh7h8h-ck/ck, 9h-ck-ck, 4s. Fish bet 1/2 pot and i called.

            so i guess i am off the hook there. but are you arguing for rigidly never falling below a certain number of BB's and pushing any 2 etc. what are your paramenters exactly and is this considered optimal strategy. could you expand basically is what i am saying.

            Comment


              #7
              In the previous orbit, did you only have ~ 15/16 bbs? If so, just shove UTG with TT.

              Don't call the river bet bluff catching vs a fish, he bets the bare 2h there.

              I don't have a rigid set at all, it all depends on table dynamics. But I think it is important to keep a stack that has fold equity when it gets to the bubble time as you should be shoving a wide range in LP, and are hoping to seriously improve your equity by getting folds from players still to act.

              With a smaller stack, it makes you far more "callable" in these spots, and means that you really have to only have the goods when you ship, and hope to stay ahead. Even when you do, you will find yourself in a very similar position in only a few more orbits, as the blinds savage your stack.

              Comment


                #8
                i agree with emmet here
                but you must also be aware of what your stack size is in relation to theirs, if you have 7bbs then a person with 20bbs isn't go to call to light as it would do serious damage to his stack or a person playing to min cash could fold a 5bb stack if there is only one or two to go before the money. likewise a guy with 30bbs+ will call you alot wider unless he is a nit.

                edit to comment on the 1010 hand
                calling a 1/2 pot sized bet on the river with 4h's on the board is just super bad, it is just way to fishy even if you had the 10h you would have to give serious thought as to why anyone with the 9h or below would risk chips in this spot when he could check it down and pick up a pot if his opponent didn't have a better heart. if you were playing of a stack of 15bbs or less it was a shove especially at the bubble. if it was farther out from the bubble then there is merit in trying to trap from LP with this hand, but tbh there is as many scary flops as there is non scary flops when you are holding 1010 and for this reason i would allways push with a stack of 15bbs or less
                Last edited by Angry-Ball; 07-12-10, 11:12.



                "Remember the time he ate my goldfish? And you lied and said I never had goldfish. Then why did I have the bowl, Bart? Why did I have the bowl?"

                Comment


                  #9
                  Awww eeeeeennnn
                  Looking for full or part time poker and betting writers. PM if interested.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Getting short is not criminal at this point it is entirely possible that a) there have not been any good spots to jam and he has, to pick an arbitrary number, halved his stack this way (things like someone opening before you when you are in lp and having a junk hand with no FE and then getting hands you cannot profitably shove in ep, this can easily happens) or b) our hero just lot a big pot... to make a blanket statement like "don't let yourself get this short in future" when the only piece of information you have been given is that we have 7bb UTG and that the average is prob around 10-15bb, it really doesn't seem like bustamoves has made any glaring error worthy of comment to get to this stack size!

                    Of course, it is important generally to understand that you shouldn't nit it up to the point of getting too short but the fact that the "I play to win" mentality was voiced in the op shows he is already well ahead of the curve in this respect!

                    Jam the 88, for sure.

                    Also, jam the TT with like 20bb or less unless there is a dynamic where you think people are likely to 3bet you light in which case raise/call or raise/4b jam if some1 just clicks it back as a 3b
                    Last edited by Alfie; 07-12-10, 20:43.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by Angry-Ball View Post
                      i agree with emmet here
                      but you must also be aware of what your stack size is in relation to theirs, if you have 7bbs then a person with 20bbs isn't go to call to light as it would do serious damage to his stack or a person playing to min cash could fold a 5bb stack if there is only one or two to go before the money. likewise a guy with 30bbs+ will call you alot wider unless he is a nit.

                      edit to comment on the 1010 hand
                      calling a 1/2 pot sized bet on the river with 4h's on the board is just super bad, it is just way to fishy even if you had the 10h you would have to give serious thought as to why anyone with the 9h or below would risk chips in this spot when he could check it down and pick up a pot if his opponent didn't have a better heart. if you were playing of a stack of 15bbs or less it was a shove especially at the bubble. if it was farther out from the bubble then there is merit in trying to trap from LP with this hand, but tbh there is as many scary flops as there is non scary flops when you are holding 1010 and for this reason i would allways push with a stack of 15bbs or less
                      dunno how you can go as far as saying it is superbad. the guy is a fish and had plenty of bluffs and one pair hands i beat. i am calling here all day against this kind of player

                      Comment


                        #12
                        is there antes? if so this changes your range for pushing, it would make 88 a clear push, if there is ante's you should not be thinking of how many BB's you have, you should instead know at all times what your CPR is, (Cost per round) the amount in the middle at the start of each hand.

                        In turn you can figure out what your what your "M" is, that is the amount of cpr's you have in your stack. Apologies if you knew this already. If you M is below 7 or 8 then your range opens up like said above and you should be shoving alot of broadway combos and suited connectors when given the chance in late position and better hands OBV.

                        also i think you should be shoving your 10's from the previous hand, if any raise you want to make is costing you 1/3 or so of your stack you should be willing to shove instead or you will get in shit spots.

                        GL

                        Comment


                          #13
                          bustamoves, you asked for advice. You are getting advice. There is little point in trying to justify your mistakes when called on them.


                          Also, I don't understand your play to win comment. If you actually played to win (and not to scrap in) then there is very little point to this thread, your decision is already made with the 88 utg.

                          As with many other threads, you are looking at the wrong point in the tourney. I hazard a guess that this is was a busto hand.
                          The real hand you should of stuck up was the TT hand. Bigger stack, info on villain, and multiple streets of action.

                          so i guess i am off the hook there. but are you arguing for rigidly never falling below a certain number of BB's and pushing any 2 etc. what are your paramenters exactly and is this considered optimal strategy. could you expand basically is what i am saying
                          Off the hook, afraid not. Now that the TT hand is up, It's a factor.
                          Re: The above, its not rigid shoving ATC once you hit a certain BBs. Come on, that would be retarded and ridic easy to exploit. It's looking for spots to pick up blinds as you approach a low M and making moves earlier rather than later, holding out for a PP, where you end up shoving say 7BBs into 30BBs and get looked up by trash, which hits and you bust. For example.

                          Originally posted by Alfie View Post
                          Getting short is not criminal at this point it is entirely possible that a) there have not been any good spots to jam and he has...
                          ... it really doesn't seem like bustamoves has made any glaring error worthy of comment to get to this stack size!
                          a) There has been a good spot to shove. TT
                          b) As played the hand was certainly an error worthy of comment.

                          Originally posted by bustamoves
                          dunno how you can go as far as saying it is superbad. the guy is a fish and had plenty of bluffs and one pair hands i beat. i am calling here all day against this kind of player
                          Here is that defensive attitude again.
                          Seeing as your stack was only about 12-15 BBs in this hand. Just open shoving is best. You didn't and honestly that not that bit a mistake.
                          The real mistake was your play post flop. Checking back 2 streets, is bad here. It's a horrible flop and the turn isn't much better (even with the OESD). Calling the river is superbad. There is no way he has a ton of worse pairs in his range, he might call those hands pf, but he doesn't chk,chk,lead-river with A8 no hearts. Even some of his bluffs beat you with a rag heart.

                          It's prob too late now, but this is honestly the hand you should of posted. (as you might argue replys are biased now)

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Originally posted by Alfie View Post
                            Getting short is not criminal at this point it is entirely possible that a) there have not been any good spots to jam and he has, to pick an arbitrary number, halved his stack this way (things like someone opening before you when you are in lp and having a junk hand with no FE and then getting hands you cannot profitably shove in ep, this can easily happens) or b) our hero just lot a big pot... to make a blanket statement like "don't let yourself get this short in future" when the only piece of information you have been given is that we have 7bb UTG and that the average is prob around 10-15bb, it really doesn't seem like bustamoves has made any glaring error worthy of comment to get to this stack size!
                            This is fair, and I probably was a little presumptuous in my thinking, but from seeing hands like these posted here and elsewhere, it is often the case that the mistake/bad play had been made previously and that the hand posted was a "standard exit spot" given the dynamics and stack sizes, and people are slightly venting their frustration at junk hitting, while also seeking recognition that they've done the right thing.

                            bustamoves, do you have HEM?

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by Mellor View Post
                              It's prob too late now, but this is honestly the hand you should of posted. (as you might argue replys are biased now)
                              As it happens, however, there was an error made in the TT hand... I agree that this is definitely the one op should have posted.

                              It's prob a good thing that you got into such a shitty spot in that hand, because had you opened it UTG, flopped a set and stacked someone, it might have served only to compound the fundamental error of not just jamming pre! So there's always an upside...

                              Comment


                                #16
                                Originally posted by Emmet View Post
                                This is fair, and I probably was a little presumptuous in my thinking, but from seeing hands like these posted here and elsewhere, it is often the case that the mistake/bad play had been made previously and that the hand posted was a "standard exit spot" given the dynamics and stack sizes, and people are slightly venting their frustration at junk hitting, while also seeking recognition that they've done the right thing.

                                bustamoves, do you have HEM?
                                yes i do have HEM but dont use the HUD for mtts or sng's. why do u ask?

                                Comment


                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by bustamoves View Post
                                  yes i do have HEM but dont use the HUD for mtts or sng's. why do u ask?
                                  you should be able to list the last 10/15 hands in the "tournament", "hands" section. Sometimes its worthwhile to just go back through the previous few orbits before the busto hand, and see where you leaked chips / didn't pick up enough.

                                  A lot of the time, the hand that you bust on in these spots are "standard", because as effective stacks are lowered, there's not as much play, and playing a shortstack when everyone else is shortstacked is fairly simplified poker, push or fold.

                                  The hands that are interesting are the ones where you fold to a turn bet, or call a river bet, or fold to a flop shove. These are hands that usually find you in weird spots, as opposed to the pushbot poker that plays once effective M's get low.

                                  Comment


                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Mellor View Post
                                    bustamoves, you asked for advice. You are getting advice. There is little point in trying to justify your mistakes when called on them.


                                    Also, I don't understand your play to win comment. If you actually played to win (and not to scrap in) then there is very little point to this thread, your decision is already made with the 88 utg.

                                    As with many other threads, you are looking at the wrong point in the tourney. I hazard a guess that this is was a busto hand.
                                    The real hand you should of stuck up was the TT hand. Bigger stack, info on villain, and multiple streets of action.


                                    Off the hook, afraid not. Now that the TT hand is up, It's a factor.
                                    Re: The above, its not rigid shoving ATC once you hit a certain BBs. Come on, that would be retarded and ridic easy to exploit. It's looking for spots to pick up blinds as you approach a low M and making moves earlier rather than later, holding out for a PP, where you end up shoving say 7BBs into 30BBs and get looked up by trash, which hits and you bust. For example.


                                    a) There has been a good spot to shove. TT
                                    b) As played the hand was certainly an error worthy of comment.


                                    Here is that defensive attitude again.Seeing as your stack was only about 12-15 BBs in this hand. Just open shoving is best. You didn't and honestly that not that bit a mistake.
                                    The real mistake was your play post flop. Checking back 2 streets, is bad here. It's a horrible flop and the turn isn't much better (even with the OESD). Calling the river is superbad. There is no way he has a ton of worse pairs in his range, he might call those hands pf, but he doesn't chk,chk,lead-river with A8 no hearts. Even some of his bluffs beat you with a rag heart.

                                    It's prob too late now, but this is honestly the hand you should of posted. (as you might argue replys are biased now)
                                    yes i am on the defensive because i am not convinced it is 'superbad' but am willing to be convinced otherwise. so if you wouldn't mind explaining why cking is worse than betting (if i bet i lose same or more as it happens in this case but i understand we have the luxury of knowing what he has now). so assume you have gotten into situation with the TT now and that mistake (of not open shoving) is made, how do you proceed vs huge fish who has loads of chips on said flop with said stack size and reasoning behind please.

                                    i have to admit i can be stubborn and defensive and have lots of things i need ironed out of my game but i aint willing to just assume that because one or two people on here agree that i should take it as definitely right.


                                    so are are u saying bet flop? if so how much, and how do you proceed and why from there. tnx

                                    Comment


                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by bustamoves View Post
                                      dunno how you can go as far as saying it is superbad. the guy is a fish and had plenty of bluffs and one pair hands i beat. i am calling here all day against this kind of player
                                      the board at that stage had an overcard, a straight and 4 cards to a flush, you wern't beating much at this stage.



                                      "Remember the time he ate my goldfish? And you lied and said I never had goldfish. Then why did I have the bowl, Bart? Why did I have the bowl?"

                                      Comment


                                        #20
                                        I'm far from a good poker player but the TT hand seems like a trivially easy fold to the river bet.

                                        Comment


                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                          I'm far from a good poker player but the TT hand seems like a trivially easy fold to the river bet.
                                          His calling range pre is superwide. Basically I figured he was goin to call any raise bar an all in from me preflop so wanted his custom. I showed weakness by checking 2 streets and so he is more likely to bluff river IMO and also he seemed one of those types that would bet bottom pair on the river not knowing whether it was a value or bluff. So yes he can have flush straights and hands that have me crushed obv but given his preflop range plus fishy tendencies from previous pots I figured I could be ahead here a fair bit. If I am getting 3 to 1 that means I need to be ahead 25% to make it profitable. Are u guys saying it's nowhere near that given the way the hand played out and his preflop range and said tendencies? Ok I can see someone bringing up the saving chips value for future use as a factor/stack protection but I also figured I still had close to the 10 bigs pushing stack if I called and lost.

                                          Comment


                                            #22
                                            I'm not convinced a fish would bet a half pot to try and push you off your hand, more likely to bet closer to pot no?

                                            What kind of hand are you hoping to see him turn over? I just don't see it tbh...

                                            Comment


                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by bustamoves View Post
                                              so if you wouldn't mind explaining why cking is worse than betting (if i bet i lose same or more as it happens in this case but i understand we have the luxury of knowing what he has now). so assume you have gotten into situation with the TT now and that mistake (of not open shoving) is made, how do you proceed vs huge fish who has loads of chips on said flop with said stack size and reasoning behind please.

                                              i have to admit i can be stubborn and defensive and have lots of things i need ironed out of my game but i aint willing to just assume that because one or two people on here agree that i should take it as definitely right.


                                              so are are u saying bet flop? if so how much, and how do you proceed and why from there. tnx

                                              there is no need to get defensive, nobody on here cares if you improve your game quite the opposite actually the more fish around the better. but you have asked for advice and people have taken the time to give you their advice.

                                              now to answer your question
                                              there is a piece of software available for free called poker stove down load it and enter the hand into it as played. the result you will get here is based on the results of thousands/millions of hands played. it will show you that by the river you have a 45% chance of winning, so calling that river all day is a loosing proposition.
                                              also without even knowing these statistics the very fact that he bets such a small amt on such a board just screams value bet to me



                                              "Remember the time he ate my goldfish? And you lied and said I never had goldfish. Then why did I have the bowl, Bart? Why did I have the bowl?"

                                              Comment


                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Angry-Ball View Post
                                                there is no need to get defensive, nobody on here cares if you improve your game quite the opposite actually the more fish around the better. but you have asked for advice and people have taken the time to give you their advice.

                                                now to answer your question
                                                there is a piece of software available for free called poker stove down load it and enter the hand into it as played. the result you will get here is based on the results of thousands/millions of hands played. it will show you that by the river you have a 45% chance of winning, so calling that river all day is a loosing proposition.
                                                also without even knowing these statistics the very fact that he bets such a small amt on such a board just screams value bet to me
                                                I love when I get things right

                                                Comment


                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                  I love when I get things right
                                                  i wouldn't go by what iam saying
                                                  shur ffs iam loosing money at this game



                                                  "Remember the time he ate my goldfish? And you lied and said I never had goldfish. Then why did I have the bowl, Bart? Why did I have the bowl?"

                                                  Comment


                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by bustamoves View Post
                                                    dunno how you can go as far as saying it is superbad. the guy is a fish and had plenty of bluffs and one pair hands i beat. i am calling here all day against this kind of player
                                                    not on that board you don't.
                                                    A general rule of thumb is if a bad player like this checks all streets and leads the river he has a decent hand. Overcards, OSED, 4 flush, there isn't a lot you are beating.

                                                    As for the OP hand it's a push all day.

                                                    i raised utg with TsTd
                                                    this is the pertinant part.
                                                    15bb's,UTG, that is a push all day.
                                                    People say I should be more humble I hope they understand, they don't listen when you mumble
                                                    Get a shiny metal Revolut card! And a free tenner!
                                                    https://revolut.com/referral/jamesb8!G10D21

                                                    Comment


                                                      #27
                                                      I am on my iPhone at the moment but when I get back I will stick it in to pokerstove. I suspect you could be right if I give him range of and heart any one pair type hands straights sets and a certain percentage of bluffs. Always happy to learn but won't be put off by sarcasm.

                                                      Comment


                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by bustamoves View Post
                                                        yes i am on the defensive because i am not convinced it is 'superbad' but am willing to be convinced otherwise. so if you wouldn't mind explaining why cking is worse than betting (if i bet i lose same or more as it happens in this case but i understand we have the luxury of knowing what he has now). so assume you have gotten into situation with the TT now and that mistake (of not open shoving) is made, how do you proceed vs huge fish who has loads of chips on said flop with said stack size and reasoning behind please.

                                                        i have to admit i can be stubborn and defensive and have lots of things i need ironed out of my game but i aint willing to just assume that because one or two people on here agree that i should take it as definitely right.


                                                        so are are u saying bet flop? if so how much, and how do you proceed and
                                                        why from there. tnx
                                                        Ok you don't have to answer. I have thought about the hand more and accept that the call was bad even if we put him on a wide range. Also betting flop here would probably have been better and folding to c/r. Checking back turn and folding to river from there seems reasonable even if it means I would have lost more in this particular case I agree it bad on reflection. Tnx for ur comment guys. Next case.

                                                        Comment


                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by bustamoves View Post
                                                          I am on my iPhone at the moment but when I get back I will stick it in to pokerstove. I suspect you could be right if I give him range of and heart any one pair type hands straights sets and a certain percentage of bluffs. Always happy to learn but won't be put off by sarcasm.
                                                          you don't even have to give him a range just give him any random had(effectively any two cards) and you are 45% to win if you assign ranges iam sure his win percentage increases



                                                          "Remember the time he ate my goldfish? And you lied and said I never had goldfish. Then why did I have the bowl, Bart? Why did I have the bowl?"

                                                          Comment


                                                            #30
                                                            Well lolz me then. Kinda hilarious actually. Might have found one of those leaks eh

                                                            What % does pokerstove say any 2 random cards is versus my TT on that board byw? Not back home yet and won't be for few hours. Just for the laugh post it there angryball if u have a chance.tn

                                                            Sh*t sorry. U say 45% already. Struggling to read on my phone here. that is hilarious
                                                            Last edited by bustamoves; 08-12-10, 20:32.

                                                            Comment


                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by bustamoves View Post
                                                              yes i am on the defensive because i am not convinced it is 'superbad' but am willing to be convinced otherwise. so if you wouldn't mind explaining why cking is worse than betting (if i bet i lose same or more as it happens in this case but i understand we have the luxury of knowing what he has now).
                                                              the fact that we prob would of lost any way means nothing when analysis. Results based thinking has no purpose.


                                                              so assume you have gotten into situation with the TT now and that mistake (of not open shoving) is made, how do you proceed vs huge fish who has loads of chips on said flop with said stack size and reasoning behind please.

                                                              so are are u saying bet flop? if so how much, and how do you proceed and why from there. tnx
                                                              Again, its best to just correct the mistake of not shoving rather than trying to outplay the mistake postflop. Long term it's best for you. But, i'll humour you;

                                                              So you raise to 2.25BBs or so, He calls
                                                              Sepending on the player's stats, specificly fold to c-bet,
                                                              if he folds a lot then c-bet, if and when he calls I'm done with the hand, folding to any more action.
                                                              If he calls a lot of c-bets. I check flop and take the free card on the turn with the OESD. River I fold to all bets.





                                                              Originally posted by bustamoves View Post
                                                              Sh*t sorry. U say 45% already. Struggling to read on my phone here. that is hilarious
                                                              given ATC its 45%, do you now agree that it's likely you are 25%. given the player, he bets every single heart that he gets to the turn with

                                                              Comment


                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by Mellor View Post
                                                                the fact that we prob would of lost any way means nothing when analysis. Results based thinking has no purpose.



                                                                Again, its best to just correct the mistake of not shoving rather than trying to outplay the mistake postflop. Long term it's best for you. But, i'll humour you;

                                                                So you raise to 2.25BBs or so, He calls
                                                                Sepending on the player's stats, specificly fold to c-bet,
                                                                if he folds a lot then c-bet, if and when he calls I'm done with the hand, folding to any more action.
                                                                If he calls a lot of c-bets. I check flop and take the free card on the turn with the OESD. River I fold to all bets.






                                                                given ATC its 45%, do you now agree that it's likely you are 25%. given the player, he bets every single heart that he gets to the turn with
                                                                please bear with me Mellor i am just thinking about this hand again and am having doubts again. just a few moments while i try get my thinking clear and read through your post and the others again. it clicked earlier but i have doubt again because my mind says we are wrong in assigning the ATC cards range vs my TT in this case. please bear with me. tnx

                                                                Comment


                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by Angry-Ball View Post
                                                                  you don't even have to give him a range just give him any random had(effectively any two cards) and you are 45% to win if you assign ranges iam sure his win percentage increases
                                                                  so if i am 45% to win what odds do i need to call river bet? 11/10?

                                                                  Comment


                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by bustamoves View Post
                                                                    so if i am 45% to win what odds do i need to call river bet? 11/10?
                                                                    His range is going to be significantly stronger than any random two, so you're a good bit worse off than 45% I'd be guessing.

                                                                    Comment


                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by Keane View Post
                                                                      His range is going to be significantly stronger than any random two, so you're a good bit worse off than 45% I'd be guessing.

                                                                      hang on a second here, give him another 10% then. no, lets go crazy and give him 20%. that makes me 25% vs his range (btw i think about his range different anyway) to win and i am getting 3/1? am i missing something here

                                                                      Comment


                                                                        #36
                                                                        That's only if he bets everything he gets to the river with. It's a fairly moot point tbh, because you shouldnt have any river decisions to make if you play the hand 'correctly'.

                                                                        But since its being asked, What hands does he have that bet the river anyway? Just give us a small sample? And how many of these do you beat? In tournaments, you want to preserve your stack, because you can't simply reload if you're wrong, or come against the top of someone's range. Calling there is not worth it.

                                                                        Comment


                                                                          #37
                                                                          Originally posted by Emmet View Post
                                                                          That's only if he bets everything he gets to the river with. It's a fairly moot point tbh, because you shouldnt have any river decisions to make if you play the hand 'correctly'.

                                                                          But since its being asked, What hands does he have that bet the river anyway? Just give us a small sample? And how many of these do you beat? In tournaments, you want to preserve your stack, because you can't simply reload if you're wrong, or come against the top of someone's range. Calling there is not worth it.
                                                                          this is the way i think about his range as the hand played out. (btw with all due repsect i asked earlier in the thread that we leave aside the debate regarding stack protection andlets go on whether this is a bad call based on my range vs his range)

                                                                          (i wrote this last nite btw)
                                                                          so here's my thinking. as the hand played out i was assuming the guys range by the river to be either a flush or a bluff.

                                                                          i didnt think he was good enough to value bet a king or two pair type hands and may not even have bet a straight or set either (being afraid of the lone heart flush) but do find these types randomly turn worse hands into bluffs (like A8o for eg).

                                                                          so if i am right making this assumption (and you may argue this is where i am going all wrong) can i make the following range analysis and be ok with it?

                                                                          hands that i figure he will bet on river
                                                                          part 1. a flush

                                                                          and 2. bluffs i beat and bluffs i dont (atc non-heart that beat TsTc)

                                                                          so part 1.
                                                                          lets say any flush for simplicity (that's any hand with a heart in it)= 36%
                                                                          (i hope i am right in my calc i worked it out like this- (9/45 x 8/44 + 9/45x36/44 + 36/45x9/44)= .362 chance his hand contains at least one heart

                                                                          and part 2.
                                                                          now lets say he bluffs 10% of the time. so what proportion of this 10% (ATC non heart containing) can we assume actually beat me. whats this figure? can we find out? its got to be small anway but i dont know how to calc it exactly

                                                                          so lets say we add 2% on that makes him having us beat 38% of the time and so i would need 6/4 for a breakeven call on the river? But we are offered 3/1 in this case.

                                                                          am i thinking about it correctly guys or am i barking mad in the way i think?

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                                                                            #38
                                                                            It's very different from cash games!
                                                                            Your analysis above lends itself to cash, not tournament decisions. You can't ignore stack dynamic in tournaments!

                                                                            Also, your ranges are still a bit off. Though there is a .362 chance that he has at least one heart in his hand (going by your sums), he doesn't even bet all of these hands. That is the chance of him having a heart. The chance of him not having a heart AND betting this river is what you need to focus on. He probably doesnt bet lower than the 6h flush, and that's fairly wild as is.

                                                                            IMO, almost never is a passive fish bettin with anything you beat on this board. P(no heart + river bet) vs villain described = tiny

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                                                                              #39
                                                                              Originally posted by Emmet View Post
                                                                              It's very different from cash games!
                                                                              Your analysis above lends itself to cash, not tournament decisions. You can't ignore stack dynamic in tournaments!

                                                                              Also, your ranges are still a bit off. Though there is a .362 chance that he has at least one heart in his hand (going by your sums), he doesn't even bet all of these hands. That is the chance of him having a heart. The chance of him not having a heart AND betting this river is what you need to focus on. He probably doesnt bet lower than the 6h flush, and that's fairly wild as is.
                                                                              IMO, almost never is a passive fish bettin with anything you beat on this board. P(no heart + river bet) vs villain described = tiny
                                                                              ok so how does that affect the equation? give it some reasonable percentage and factor it in? how doe this change things and by how much roughly? it works in favour of my argument becuase now his range is even more polarized right?

                                                                              (also i dont want to come off the point here but dont i still have around ten big blinds left if i call and thats consdiered an ok stack for stealing right?)
                                                                              Last edited by bustamoves; 09-12-10, 16:56. Reason: spelling + additional

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                                                                                #40
                                                                                I'm on my phone so can't do much in the way of ranges and percentages.

                                                                                If he bets worse than TT no flush one time in fifteen on that board I would be surprised.
                                                                                Your hand is pretty much junk there! You shouldn't really need a range to figure out if calling is +0.005chips EV or whatever odds. Trying to justify the call will wind your head up.

                                                                                "make it easy on yourself" - solid advice I've seen written here plenty of times

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                                                                                  #41
                                                                                  Originally posted by Emmet View Post
                                                                                  I'm on my phone so can't do much in the way of ranges and percentages.

                                                                                  If he bets worse than TT no flush one time in fifteen on that board I would be surprised.
                                                                                  Your hand is pretty much junk there!
                                                                                  You shouldn't really need a range to figure out if calling is +0.005chips EV or whatever odds. Trying to justify the call will wind your head up.

                                                                                  "make it easy on yourself" - solid advice I've seen written here plenty of times
                                                                                  i totally agree and so thats why i think his hand is either a flush or nothing. so odds he has a flush we figure to be .36

                                                                                  we can bring that down more if we assume further he wont bet his low flushes.

                                                                                  ok so in a cash game do we agree its a call then?

                                                                                  yes or no?

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                    #42
                                                                                    No, when he bets he obv has a flush more than 36% of the time (where are you getting that figure from?).

                                                                                    If you're trying to break it down mathematically in some way, he has a range of hands on the river and a subset of that range is the hands he bets the river with, the vast majority of which are flushes.

                                                                                    Saying he has a flush x% of the time on the river is only correct if you know he bets 100% of his range on the river, and you can't know that.

                                                                                    The only numbers you really need to look at on the river are the pot odds and thus how often you need to be good to make the call profitable. That's the easy part, the hard part is ascertaining how your hand actually fares vs. the range of hands he bets the river with. So, in this hand, you didn't fuck up anything mathematically per se, you just gave him a highly optimistic range that included way more bluffs than he can reasonably have. You need to strive for objectivity in these spots and try to evaluate the situation based on the actual information you have (ie. previous action in the hand, stats, history, etc.) and avoid coming up with unsubstantiated reasons to call/fold/raise just becuase it's what you want to do.

                                                                                    I'm open to criticism here but I think I'm generally correct on this, even if some of it is articulated badly or seems a bit ambiguous.

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                                                                                      #43
                                                                                      Originally posted by bustamoves View Post
                                                                                      i totally agree and so thats why i think his hand is either a flush or nothing. so odds he has a flush we figure to be .36

                                                                                      we can bring that down more if we assume further he wont bet his low flushes.

                                                                                      ok so in a cash game do we agree its a call then?

                                                                                      yes or no?
                                                                                      woah. The total opposite here.

                                                                                      I'm saying that >80% of the time that he bets this river you are beat. And even when he doesn't bet, you're still beat a fair proportion of the time! Just because you had a solid hand preflop, doesn't mean that its worth jack shit when we get to the river.

                                                                                      He's not balancing his range or anything like that. He's betting almost exclusively with a hand that beats you. He's bluffing very very rarely!

                                                                                      In a cash game, the hand plays very differently. And it could well be weighted to a call. But you must understand the dynamics are very different here with smaller stacks, no reloading, and "Tournament Life Syndrome" too.

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                                                                                        #44
                                                                                        Originally posted by Emmet View Post
                                                                                        woah. The total opposite here.

                                                                                        I'm saying that >80% of the time that he bets this river you are beat. And even when he doesn't bet, you're still beat a fair proportion of the time! Just because you had a solid hand preflop, doesn't mean that its worth jack shit when we get to the river.

                                                                                        He's not balancing his range or anything like that. He's betting almost exclusively with a hand that beats you. He's bluffing very very rarely!

                                                                                        In a cash game, the hand plays very differently. And it could well be weighted to a call. But you must understand the dynamics are very different here with smaller stacks, no reloading, and "Tournament Life Syndrome" too.
                                                                                        wouldnt mind if you explain this concept. it's something that i dont really understand. tnx

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                          #45
                                                                                          I can't really sum it up very well. I'm not professing to be any good at this game to be honest!

                                                                                          Essentially what I mean by the statement is that, in this case he has no bluffs on the river. Every river bet he ever makes (in this spot)is for value only, and it makes it an easy fold.

                                                                                          With a balanced range on the river, i.e, he has plenty of bluffs as well as his value bets, it makes it closer to a call, but probably still doesn't get there.

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                                                                                            #46
                                                                                            bustamoves, I'd suggest to try and understand ranges before you try and balance your own.
                                                                                            What you posted about kinda lose a total lack of understanding of ranges.

                                                                                            Originally posted by bustamoves View Post
                                                                                            so if i am 45% to win what odds do i need to call river bet? 11/10?
                                                                                            You are 45% if the player called you blind, and played the hand without looking.
                                                                                            This was an attempt to show how weak you are. obviously you are alot worse given the fact that the villain call pre and decides to fire out.


                                                                                            Originally posted by bustamoves View Post

                                                                                            so if i am right making this assumption (and you may argue this is where i am going all wrong) can i make the following range analysis and be ok with it?

                                                                                            hands that i figure he will bet on river
                                                                                            part 1. a flush

                                                                                            and 2. bluffs i beat and bluffs i dont (atc non-heart that beat TsTc)

                                                                                            so part 1.
                                                                                            lets say any flush for simplicity (that's any hand with a heart in it)= 36%
                                                                                            (i hope i am right in my calc i worked it out like this- (9/45 x 8/44 + 9/45x36/44 + 36/45x9/44)= .362 chance his hand contains at least one heart

                                                                                            and part 2.
                                                                                            now lets say he bluffs 10% of the time. so what proportion of this 10% (ATC non heart containing) can we assume actually beat me. whats this figure? can we find out? its got to be small anway but i dont know how to calc it exactly

                                                                                            so lets say we add 2% on that makes him having us beat 38% of the time and so i would need 6/4 for a breakeven call on the river? But we are offered 3/1 in this case.

                                                                                            am i thinking about it correctly guys or am i barking mad in the way i think?
                                                                                            What the hell was that?

                                                                                            first of all, you are saying he has a heart 36% of the time and bluffs 10%
                                                                                            ...the most obvious flaw here is that only adds up to 46%

                                                                                            Assuming your reads and sums are correct 9bluffs are high imo), he bets the river 46 % of the time, (36% with a flush, 10% with air)
                                                                                            So he is bluffing, 10/46 or 22%, allowing for his bluffs that beat you means you are maybe 20% to win, which is a fold given your odds.


                                                                                            Originally posted by bustamoves View Post
                                                                                            i totally agree and so thats why i think his hand is either a flush or nothing. so odds he has a flush we figure to be .36

                                                                                            we can bring that down more if we assume further he wont bet his low flushes.

                                                                                            ok so in a cash game do we agree its a call then?

                                                                                            yes or no?
                                                                                            It was 36% he got to the river with a flush, once he bets, this 36% dominates his range.

                                                                                            It's not a call in a cash game either, not even close.

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                              #47
                                                                                              Originally posted by Mellor View Post
                                                                                              bustamoves, I'd suggest to try and understand ranges before you try and balance your own.What you posted about kinda lose a total lack of understanding of ranges.


                                                                                              You are 45% if the player called you blind, and played the hand without looking.
                                                                                              This was an attempt to show how weak you are. obviously you are alot worse given the fact that the villain call pre and decides to fire out.



                                                                                              What the hell was that?

                                                                                              first of all, you are saying he has a heart 36% of the time and bluffs 10%
                                                                                              ...the most obvious flaw here is that only adds up to 46%

                                                                                              Assuming your reads and sums are correct 9bluffs are high imo), he bets the river 46 % of the time, (36% with a flush, 10% with air)
                                                                                              So he is bluffing, 10/46 or 22%, allowing for his bluffs that beat you means you are maybe 20% to win, which is a fold given your odds.




                                                                                              It was 36% he got to the river with a flush, once he bets, this 36% dominates his range.

                                                                                              It's not a call in a cash game either, not even close.
                                                                                              never said anything about trying to balance my range so i guess your are ensconcing your customary bit of sarcasm early! dont worry i can take it.
                                                                                              i did ask for him to explain the concept and if you could while you are at it do. and an practical example pls as i have heard this talked about alot but not really known what it means in practice.


                                                                                              i accept i have a difficulty here with understanding ranges in this case in the same way you do. i am trying to get there.

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                                #48
                                                                                                Originally posted by bustamoves View Post
                                                                                                never said anything about trying to balance my range so i guess your are ensconcing your customary bit of sarcasm early! dont worry i can take it.
                                                                                                i did ask for him to explain the concept and if you could while you are at it do. and an practical example pls as i have heard this talked about alot but not really known what it means in practice.
                                                                                                What are you talking about?
                                                                                                Where have I been sarcastic before? Every post has been serious.
                                                                                                You just asked him about balancing ranges? Why would you deny this then admit it in the same paragraph????

                                                                                                It was 36% he got to the river with a flush, once he bets, this 36% dominates his range
                                                                                                If the above confuses you, then i'll explain it, but if you are going to post nonsense then I won't bother trying to help you.

                                                                                                Comment


                                                                                                  #49
                                                                                                  It's getting a bit frustrating tbh.

                                                                                                  If you really need this info then google it, the internet is full of poker. If you want the advice of people on the site, then take it. Your attitude is so wrong imo and you need to change it to progress and improve your game or you can continue on blinkered and the chances are that your game won't reach it's full potential. Even by the posts you thank I can see that you are willing to accept someone's view because it may not conflict with yours or it's dressed up in cotton wool.

                                                                                                  As for this sarcasm, I haven't seen any, i have seen you go on the defensive very quickly when someone picks you up on something.

                                                                                                  You have been given solid advice repeatedly on this site since you started posting threads but yet it almost seems like you don't want to take it in. Take a breath and try to realise that every individual poster has gone out of their way to try and help your problem, and many more than once. You posted looking for a 'lend' of a couple of books, saying you knew it was cheeky or whatever, but a few days later you post saying that you don't read books. How do you think this goes down with the people who went out of there way to help you(some of the best players in the country!)?


                                                                                                  This thread is painful tbh. 88 with 7bb sitting anywhere at the table is a basic/standard open shove, but fair enough if you didn't realise this, that's what this section is for(again read through all the thread here).

                                                                                                  1010 hand has been explained well enough, it's an open shove but as played it's a fold on the river. Accept it or not but in future you won't be getting to the river here so you don't have to worry too much about the river play.

                                                                                                  As for this: ok so in a cash game do we agree its a call then?yes or no?
                                                                                                  You are not playing a cash game so don't worry about it. Chill out and try to adjust to a new style of play if you are really going to commit to playing mtts full time.

                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                    #50
                                                                                                    The 36% is just the probability that any given hand has a heart in it.

                                                                                                    That's not the same thing as the probability that the villain has a flush in this particular hand.

                                                                                                    The action up to now suggests the villain is value betting, and the vast majority of the range of hands with which he will do so is made up of flushes.

                                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                                      #51
                                                                                                      sorry if i come across bad. i prob a little paranoid too that some of the established posters might be taking the mickey out of me when they are posting replies. i do appreciate the advice an awful lot actually. sorry mellor i just took you up wrong then.

                                                                                                      i want to get as much out of this forum as i can. if i had anything to give back i would (or at least i think i would). if i had great knowlegde of the game i would enjoy enlightening someone else. i will make an effort to improve my attitude.

                                                                                                      i have been perusing this forum for a few years (the old boards one) and never actually participated. lately i decided i was gonna try get on and improve my game by posting hands etc.

                                                                                                      as regards getting the recommended books and reading them. its on my list of to do's.

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